The Whitney

[cj]

What a fabulous race!

[Speed Figure]

Pace Figures will be BIG for this one!

[Valuist]

Awesome race by Roses in May. As for Perfect Drift, they went :13 3/5 in that final eighth and he still couldn't get it done?? I think Day should've been hitting him left handed; he was lugging in during the final furlong. The Suburban definitely looks like a negative key race.

[Zaf]

Hey CJ,

According to your figures , Roses in May was the play. I didn't believe the Prairie Meadows number :( , I played Bowman's Band.

ZAFONIC

[cj]

I came out pretty good on the race, but I really thought PD would win with the pace setup. If it comes out the other way, I win three times as much. No need not to believe a number ;).

[Zaf]

I just noticed it picked the exacta cold, I'm a believer ;)

ZAFONIC

[keilan]

“Roses In May” yesterday ran arguably the best route on dirt that I have ever witnessed. He’s performance was nothing short of sensational. While running fractions of 45.2 and 1:09 he still managed to hold off hard-charging Perfect Drift at the wire.

Where did the other speed and bet down horses finish -- Peace Rules (6th) Newfoundland (7th) Yessirgeneralsir (8th) Seattle Fitz (9th)

While I had no problem believing Roses In May latest numbers I honestly had the horse to either bounce or be gutted by what I predicted to be a blazing pace scenario, which was at least correct.

Here was the rub for myself and probably many other players “Roses In May” had topped considerably in his last race and though a lightly raced horse at 4 entering only his 9 lifetime start could/would he move forward again facing some of the best horses in America?

I confess I knew basically nothing about this horse until yesterday but I became a huge fan.

Incidentally my tri tickets looked like this 1-5-8-9/4/1-5-8-9 and Bowman’s Band (4) again keyed for 3rd.

To those players that had him on top congrats!

P.S. JimG called it in the WR -- hope you played it big Jim. Great call :)

[JimG]

Originally posted by keilan
[B
P.S. JimG called it in the WR -- hope you played it big Jim. Great call :) [/B]

Thanks for the props. Made for a nice day.

Jim

[brdman12]

It was a great race. Something should be said for the way Prado handled that race, stayed just off the leader and worked the dickens out of that horse, just never gave up. A great jockey.

[Tom]

Sometimes you get good payoffs on top Beyers. The 133 - X -113 pattern led me to believe improvemnt today. I don't think the 113 was his top because he ran two of them in three races. I was looking for 114-118 range and this guy to move into the ranks of this year's older horse to watch. I thought PD would improve so I used him too, but I felt Rose was the better bet. The rest of the field was a throughout for me. Since this analysis usually leads me to 3-5 horses, I was flabbergasted to see 8-1 and one point!
If I could make this bet once a week at theses odds, I would not be sitting in an office 40 hours a week! Hear that, Boss?
:D

[plainolebill]

Trying to get a handle on this race. I thought that the early pace would toast Roses in May, after the fact I can see that there were no genuine closers, but what made you guys think that RinM would survive the pace? Was it the price and the best top?

I over-thunk this one I thank!

[Tom]

Originally posted by plainolebill
Trying to get a handle on this race. I thought that the early pace would toast Roses in May, after the fact I can see that there were no genuine closers, but what made you guys think that RinM would survive the pace? Was it the price and the best top?

I over-thunk this one I thank!

I thought that Roses was inherently the fastest horse in the race and was going to run faster. When I have a dominant horse that runs in front, I don't worry about lesser horses killing it. This was one race I thought that pace was incidental. Best horse out in front, come get me. All I was yelling down the stretch was "Git R Done!"

[cj]

116 Beyer for Roses.

[Derek2U]

What a great race. Anytime Peace Rules can't get near the pace
with Newfoundland unable to press then make a bid you know
it was a Hot pace. And will some1 please tell Gigastar's stable
that HE CAN'T COMPETE BEYOND 1-Turn MILES against TOP
HORSES. What is it that drives peeps to keep on doing lame
things? The owners must be Republicans ... JK.

[Valuist]

A couple conclusions:

1. The Suburban is a negative key race. The exacta was made up of the 2 Cornhusker shippers.

2. Perfect Drift can no longer win at a high level. With that pace in front of him and that :13 3/5 final furlong, its amazing he couldn't get it done.

3. Roses in May doesn't have to lead every step of the way. But I harbor doubts about him at 1 1/4 miles.

4. Saratoga is NOT Peace Rules favorite track.

[keilan]

cjmilkowski 116 Beyer for Roses.


Thought it would have been a couple points higher :D

[Valuist]

I think its a couple points too high. That means Perfect Drift also got a 116 and Sarava a 112. Neither of those horses ran those numbers this year. I would've expected a winning number in the 110-112 range.

[azibuck]

I think Peace Rules is a bit overrated. He's not a stalker. I don't know what the hell Crist was talking about if you read his Spa Journals. PR is certainly the most dangerous front running horse around, or one of them, but if he gets completely behind a horse, let alone two, forget it.

[keilan]

Valuist – My apologises, I view different numbers than those posted by “Andy Beyer”. I NOW see that Beyer gave him a 116 for the Whitney and a 113 for the previous race. Somehow I had thought that the previous Beyer number had been higher. Really all I was saying is that the Whitney number should have eclipsed the previous number of 113.

[cj]

As a general rule, with top class horses, the faster the pace, the higher the winning speed figure.

Just like humans, the "rabbit" ensuring a fast pace leads to faster final times, just not by the rabbit. Something to chew on for a little bit...