View Full Version : R9 Saratoga $100K Shine Again 8/2

Lemon Drop Husker
08-02-2017, 12:14 AM
We have seen a number of G1 races that certainly haven't earned the tag this year.

Well, this is a $100K Stakes race with quality deserving of a Grade 2 number beside it.

10 very interesting stories look to go to the gate in this one.

:1: Going for Broke: The 'undercard' of the Chad Brown entries isn't exactly a slouch. Coming off a long 8 month layoff, her works have been decent and well enough. She certainly won't be a rabbit for the other Brown entry in the :3: Carina Mia. With this being her first race as a 4YO, we could see a huge effort. ML of 7/2 seems a bit aggressive, but with how Brown and Irad are rolling, one has to respect.

:2: Indulgent: A somewhat lightly raced 4YO with 2 absolutely disastrous races coming into this one, including a dreadful last in which she was never ever a factor. Has been the better of a couple in here, but her last 2 are really tough to overlook. Just not finding much to like for a ML of 6/1, that should drift upwards.

:3: Carina Mia: At one time last year, she looked like the main contender to Songbird and her 3YO filly crown. After she was spanked at this very track last July by Songbird, she has been a fairly normal Graded Stakes filly, and hasn't won a race since. Brown and Castellano team up on this gal, and she will likely be the favorite as she drops in from 7 straight G1 races. A must consideration, but certainly beatable.

:4: Discreet Senorita: A bit weird in which she was just claimed in an OC $62.5K race, and now ships here from Belmont to take on Stakes company. Her Parx background before her lone race at Belmont isn't all that appealing. She is in form, but has certainly never seen the likes of what she'll meet today. Jacobson isn't an idiot, and Santana has found a bit of a home here at 'Toga this meet. A scary bomber if you find enough to like.

:5: Absatootly: As in form as anybody in the field. However, her last 4 races have been on off tracks. And while she is staying in the same 'stakes' company, she is taking on a bit more than usual in here. Baker won't saddle a ton of horses this meet, but they are usually well meant. 13 5-4-2 record amid decent to solid competition is hard to look past. 20/1 ML can't possibly stick. Contender, even amongst these.

:6: Birdatthewire: Much like her daddy, she likes to come from deep most of the time. Her biggest problem is we are likely looking at a fairly paceless race. Class is there, but her 4 for 22 lifetime record isn't exactly comforting at a ML of 6/1. Solid connections, but I'll be surprised if she goes off that low. Looks like a tough race for this one to win.

:7: Clipthecouponannie: A well placed horse that has won a lot of money and is 5 for 7 lifetime while finishing in the Exacta 6 of those 7 tries. Last out, the :5: Absatootly beat her, and her other loss included the :2: beating her. Pletcher and Johnny V will draw way too much money for an overrated entry that essentially hasn't beat anybody of note.

:8: Momameamaria: Ran a solid 2nd last year in this very race as she gave it up late to the closing Wavell Avenue. Will likely use the same tactics of trying to get on or very close to the lead and wall off the closers in here. Cannizzo has her back in his barn, and she is fresh off of a victory. 30/1 ML? Gotta figure some locals with throw a little bit on her.

:9: Pawleys Express: Has never finished off the board in 7 lifetime starts, but she has also never faced this kind of field before either. A 5YO mare, that likely isn't ready to pop a career best at the most opportune time of her career. She'll be double digit odds for the first time in her life.

:10: Wheatfield: Really hard to look past her last 2 races. Granted, those were in pretty good fields, but she was simply whipped. As a 5YO, you have to worry if she has gone a bit sour. Have to like the 2 works coming in, and the "drop in class" is encouraging. Not a nickel has been bet on her in a while. Could she surprise when unexpected?

SUMMARY: I'm going to take a long and hard look at the :5: and :8: in the post parade as the "dropping" favorites all look vulnerable (as they should since they are dropping). Even the :4: isn't a no chancer with a ML of 30/1.

08-02-2017, 12:24 AM
I kind of like Birdatthewire in her third start off the layoff. But yes, another slow pace is always a concern for her style.

08-03-2017, 07:44 AM
I just saw this very nice analysis, gratifying to see in hindsight. I was on the :5: myself, along with the :2:, and liked the :6: to run with, fearing the :1: (I posted pre-race in the NYRA thread). The :5: beat the :8: for the lead as I suspected, but didn't stay for the stretch run—the :8: proved more enduring of the two. The :2: had too little too late (after enduring a bump from :3:), but did come running for show. And the :1: ran well indeed for the Brown exacta. The legitimate favorite prevailed, but the race looked far more contentious than its odds suggested.