2 Longshots to start August

[Ray2000]

Mohawk R10.......#3 Lisvinnie-8/1............Macdonald, James A
NW2,500L5 ....Might have found a spot for him, 10 for 32 last year for this 7YO

Pocono R12.......#8 Lipstick Taser-10/1......Marohn, Jim Jr
pp8 is a problem but trainer not driving this time, calls on Marohn

GLA

[CoachBird]

Thanks for the plays Ray.

[Ray2000]

Thx CoachB, but no winners......:(

Results at Mohawk
Off at 5/1, Made a gate break with Jimmy Mac
at Pokie
6/1 shot got up front but empty in stretch

Going with a Win bet today on:
Chester R9.......#3 Kotare Yael N-7/1........Morgan, Anthony
Give him a Mulligan on last start ...class up to 94 from 89, sloppy track, bad post
back in Trackmaster class 89 today.

also betting W/P/S on this one today, the 6 in here looks too tough....

Chester R14......#4 Drinkin Again-12/1.......Mccarthy, Andrew
A 35/1 winner on June 28, this 3 yo colt broke his maiden and is on the improve.

Good Luck All



BTW The robot came back drooling today with this pick,

Monticello R4....#3 Mayflowermoonshine-10/1

all excited about Mayflower's 23 second 1st Q on July 27th:pound:

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Thx CoachB, but no winners......:(

Results at Mohawk
Off at 5/1, Made a gate break with Jimmy Mac
at Pokie
6/1 shot got up front but empty in stretch

Going with a Win bet today on:
Chester R9.......#3 Kotare Yael N-7/1........Morgan, Anthony
Give him a Mulligan on last start ...class up to 94 from 89, sloppy track, bad post
back in Trackmaster class 89 today.

also betting W/P/S on this one today, the 6 in here looks too tough....

Chester R14......#4 Drinkin Again-12/1.......Mccarthy, Andrew
A 35/1 winner on June 28, this 3 yo colt broke his maiden and is on the improve.

Good Luck All



BTW The robot came back drooling today with this pick,

Monticello R4....#3 Mayflowermoonshine-10/1

all excited about Mayflower's 23 second 1st Q on July 27th:pound:

What is your tool to say a class moves from 89 to 94? Thanks.

[Ray2000]

What is your tool to say a class moves from 89 to 94? Thanks.

Trackmaster programs use a speed based approach to classify any race.
It uses the average TM speed ratings of all the entrants over the last few races, (6 I think). The listed class rating of past races are adjusted for scratches. I've found that a difference of 3 or more points from a horses last race is a usually a real class change.
Kotare last numbers are (most recent - > oldest) 94 - 89 - 87 - 82.
Todays Race 9 is rated at 89, like the race he won at 9/1 on July 15th

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Trackmaster programs use a speed based approach to classify any race.
It uses the average TM speed ratings of all the entrants over the last few races, (6 I think). The listed class rating of past races are adjusted for scratches. I've found that a difference of 3 or more points from a horses last race is a usually a real class change.
Kotare last numbers are (most recent - > oldest) 94 - 89 - 87 - 82.
Todays Race 9 is rated at 89, like the race he won at 9/1 on July 15th

I have my own thoughts for speed ratings. But I would need access to charts online to make it work. I do this manually when I have the opportunity and energy -- which rarely happens any more.

I believe you should capture the fastest time for each of the quarters off of any given card. Then the speed rating of every horse that races on that day is one point for each fifth of a second off of each quarter.

The best score is zero if you have are the fastest for each quarter.

[Ray2000]

Yesterday Kotare off at 6/1 finished 3rd ($4.00 to show), couldn't catch the joker in the deck.
Drinkin Again cancelled race, don't know why?

jess
Interesting speed approach, I'll have to noodle on it for a while.

I found this 2 yo old chart I posted on TM class shifts
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=124622