How do you handicap grass races?

[GMB@BP]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

[thaskalos]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.


Try it out at Gulfstream for a while...so you could be 0/28.

My best advice for handicapping the grass races? PASS them...and concentrate on the dirt. The turf is an acquired taste, IMO...and I hesitate to believe the bettors who claim to excel at it.

[n.c]

races, i end up losing:headbanger: more tracks i bet, more i lose:headbanger:

so really have cut down on the races, and pretty much sticking with MSW..if i am up, then i might jump into MCL with large fields.

Usually start with win/place , and if i am up, then go with exotics.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Do what you do.

Don't go stat hunting and trying to figure out what is wrong with your 'capping.

You know your stuff. You've done the work, and will continue to do the work.

Nose to the grindstone and work through it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Try Del Mar turf. I'm a 25% on both Saratoga's turf courses. Am a 40% right now at Del Mar. I've been seeing chalk and nonsense at Toga. The best bets are good horses with bad trainers. Everybody is betting connections at the meet. I am the anti trainer handicapper!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Do what you do.

Don't go stat hunting and trying to figure out what is wrong with your 'capping.

You know your stuff. You've done the work, and will continue to do the work.

Nose to the grindstone and work through it.

Good advice LDH. One thing I've learned at these super meets=you can be dunce cap one day and king of the hill the next. Don't get discouraged is the best advice. Swing the bat. Only way you can hit.

[GMB@BP]

Do what you do.

Don't go stat hunting and trying to figure out what is wrong with your 'capping.

You know your stuff. You've done the work, and will continue to do the work.

Nose to the grindstone and work through it.

Its the randomness that I think is the issue.

Form only means so much in these races. You really cant project pace because all the riders grab for the most part. So that creates randomness.

You cant seem to correlate pace trip handicapping because as I stated it really does not seem to play. Give me a horse who closed into a slow pace and now gets a better set up on dirt, thats an auto play for me, on turf, random.

Trips in the race, just like all turf racing, is highly important...but again thats a bit unpredictable with the best riders in the world.

At this point I think its best just to use 4-7 horses in the multi race bets in large fields and maybe 2-3 in smaller fields. Take the best barns and closing figures.

I always rewatch and rehandicap the races to see what I missed. Many times you can say yea I can see that now but again you usually can do that with 2/3rds of the field at saratoga.

[deelo]

On turf, most of the racing is done in the stretch. Look for horses whose form is progressing toward more explosive stretch runs while also being in striking range of the pace.

For longshots, find a horse that originally ran competitive at some point of his earlier turf races but not quite good enough. Then later on laid off a while and came back to put up a much improved dirt performance then came back fast to try turf once again. I've hit tons of 20/1s, a few 50/1s, and even a 70/1 on this in the last year.

[JustRalph]

You made me curious. I made a database for the SAR meet.

at the cost of $12.50 from BRIS btw.........

Winners seem to be coming from all over the place on turf in sprints.

But I did notice that in routes 80% of winners, or 24 out of 30 were

Prime Power 1-4

You might think chalky........but Prime 2 and 3 would be worthy

Dirt routes arent' much different..... but it's the only real pattern I can see without digging a little deeper......

If my memory serves me right......the turf can turn in a day or two to a huge bias to speed. Catching it depends on the weather I believe. Being ahead of it is tough though

[burnsy]

Right now, at Saratoga you have to pay attention to pace horses. Until it rains again its best to be prominent early in most races where a price hits. This especially applies to the inner turf course the most. Even if the lead horse does not win it runs second or third a good portion of the time. And the winner is usually in close proximity of the pace early on. I'm stubborn and stick to it, the first week I got burned pretty good, but the course has stiffened up and the last couple of days have been a parade of pace horses. Sunday there was a horse cutting back that routinely runs 6 lengths in the clear. Well, at a mile that horse took off and never looked back, at 8-1. It doesn't work every race but the prices you get when it does, is well worth the wait. I guarantee it works more than 0-14 too. It usually works at least once a day when the weather gets dry and hot. I started the meet off awful, the track was playing fair. The last couple days, Sunday and Monday, all the surfaces are speed favoring. When you get these conditions its a speed bonanza and the prices are glorious.

Its pretty simple and yesterday was easy pickings. The last 3 races on the card were speed, speed and more speed, and the payoffs were more than generous. When a horse like Morticia is 2-1, you gotta be all over picks and doubles on that bullet. People make it so complicated, when this place is usually speed favoring. When it isn't and a parade of chalk keeps winning that's when I'm usually losing.....so I pray for this kind of weather. Its worked for me for years up here. When I was young the older guys taught me to handicap where horses would be at the half, you will find many good things from horses that are prominent at that point. Believe me.

[Dahoss9698]

I always find it funny the people that find it easy NEVER have pre race opinions. Not knocking anyone, but just stating my opinion. I rarely see the people who are smart after the races being smart before the races.

[thaskalos]

I always find it funny the people that find it easy NEVER have pre race opinions. Not knocking anyone, but just stating my opinion. I rarely see the people who are smart after the races being smart before the races.

Could it be that they don't want anyone to piggy-back on their action?

Plus...don't forget that there are some guys out there who will even stoop to hacking into a winning player's betting account...so they could subsequently SELL the guy's horizontal-wager picks, for a tidy profit. If you are a "winning player"...you gotta be careful out there. :)

[Jeff P]

That last part is a bit disconcerting.

Care to elaborate? (Privately if need be.)


-jp

.

[johnhannibalsmith]

That last part is a bit disconcerting.

Care to elaborate? (Privately if need be.)


-jp

.

He was joking. One of our ruled-off beloved regulars came with that theory.

[Jeff P]

Got it.


-jp

.

[Aerocraft67]

What's all the grabbing and choking and unaggressive riding all about, anyway? That's a face value question—why do they do that? What's to gain in taking a smaller piece of the purse than you could? Are they calculating that the risk of running out of the money by going for the win is a negative expectation whereas a more conservative ride ensures a more likely score in the money at the expense of the win but with a more positive expectation?

One quick idea is that if your picks are consistently running in the money but not winning, consider vertical wagers.

To get past conservative rides to find winners, I guess it comes down to determining who is well meant to win. Just from this thread, there's an angle of sorts from small-time trainers shipping in for a score at Saratoga. Obviously they don't always have the horse to close the deal, but seems those are logically the ones going after it, all or none.

Given commendable handicapping, maybe there's something clever to do with wagering to increase hit rate. I'm a vertical player, but I look at many of these turf races with several viable contenders, find a key at a price and spread a little into the others, avoiding the favorite if it's at all vulnerable. That's not an automatic favorite toss but seems to be how I wind up playing these. I'm also betting to place more than usual.

If you truly believe these races are random and chaotic, I suppose there are ways to wager that assessment. If you maintain some predictability, you can bias toward better prices to try to even the score with low hit rate.

[Robert Fischer]

Here is one example method

Separate into 3 types of contender:
1. = horses whose good race contends for the win
2. = horses who need a dream trip to contend for the win
3. = horses who are unlikely to contend for the win

Then declare the patsy.

Then wager structure.

Then strut and pound your chest if you win, or blame the jockey if you were wrong or unlucky.

Example 12 horse turf race starter allowance
wed sar r3 (scroll down to wed) http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/GEMOLOGIST/2009/summary.html
1 = 4,5?,8
2 = 6,7,10,12
3 = 1,2,3,11

Patsy? = The public, who will bet the 5 Carbon Data down to favoritism, mainly because of his trainer.
(If you don't know who the patsy is by the time you reach this step, YOU are the patsy, and should skip any serious betting in the race.)

wager structure = I'll make 4,8 my'a's , and use five 'b's: 5,6,7,10,12 in this twelve horse field.

[classhandicapper]

I'm no turf expert, but this is what I think.

1. Speed figures are less accurate on grass because there are way more paces that are slow enough to impact the final time and rail setting are an added issue. So figure makers are forced to make more single race projected figures which can be prone to error.

2. Due to #1, class should probably be given more weight

3. Closing times are more important than on dirt, but closing times are still impacted by the earlier action/pace of the race. So it's not always so easy to make accurate comparisons across distances and pace scenarios.

4. Closers tend to have more of chance on most courses than on dirt even when the fractions are slow (and conversely getting loose in a slow pace is not as much of an advantage as on many dirt courses)

5. Dirt sprinters tend to do better in turf sprints that generally given credit for

6. If the pace is a "little faster" than average it doesn't alter the outcome as much as it might on dirt because average turf paces tends to be pretty slow by dirt standards.

7. Turf horses seem to be more consistent and hold their form longer.

8. Typically, dirt horses develop rapidly during their 2yo and 3yo year and then sort of peak at 4. Turf horses seem to develop a little slower and peak a little later more often.

9. Given turf horse consistency and the way the races develop, they are usually so deep and competitive, trips can be decisive and can make it darn near impossible to have a wins% as high as on dirt races.

10. Don't bet against Chad Brown. ;)

[classhandicapper]

11. Stakes fillies have an easier time crossing over and competing against colts.

[letswastemoney]

You could just avoid grass, or wait and pick horizontal sequences with more dirt races in them (which is hard...grass races are popular and will always be prominent in the late Pick 4).

[GMB@BP]

Here is one example method

Separate into 3 types of contender:
1. = horses whose good race contends for the win
2. = horses who need a dream trip to contend for the win
3. = horses who are unlikely to contend for the win

Then declare the patsy.

Then wager structure.

Then strut and pound your chest if you win, or blame the jockey if you were wrong or unlucky.

Example 12 horse turf race starter allowance
wed sar r3 (scroll down to wed) http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/GEMOLOGIST/2009/summary.html
1 = 4,5?,8
2 = 6,7,10,12
3 = 1,2,3,11

Patsy? = The public, who will bet the 5 Carbon Data down to favoritism, mainly because of his trainer.
(If you don't know who the patsy is by the time you reach this step, YOU are the patsy, and should skip any serious betting in the race.)

wager structure = I'll make 4,8 my'a's , and use five 'b's: 5,6,7,10,12 in this twelve horse field.

This is more or less what I do in these large field events, break them down into A's C's and X's. B horses would be a horse who I think is likely to win should I have a single who does not fire, most of the time its A/C.

I usually bet win and place depending on the odds, just double on win bets if the horses are less than 4/1.

The race you quoted is a pretty good example. That is a very difficult race. I particularly thought it was between 3,4,7,8. I thought the 8 on pure ability looked best but the odds probably wont be playable for me.

I was very interested in Cite who I think has a bit muddled form being in too long of races the past two and before that ran races that could win this, and at 6/1 he figures a decent proposition.

If it was a gun to my head in multi race bets to feel comfortable I would be way deep in this race, as you were.

[GMB@BP]

You could just avoid grass, or wait and pick horizontal sequences with more dirt races in them (which is hard...grass races are popular and will always be prominent in the late Pick 4).

I thought this would be viable but the dearth of dirt races, and even more directly the dearth of competitive dirt races in NY makes it pretty hard. I did not realize it had gotten that bad there. To get value you are kinda either forced to be very very patient or play grass and dirt.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I almost think you need to farther break down turf races in to sprints and routes. You may find that you are having a vastly better time getting a read on the field in sprints, but just missing, and are hopeless in route races without a pick that got close. Or vice versa. But, for my money, turf sprints simply don't run the same way a turf route does, in general. You may find that focusing on one over the other brings your play up.

[GMB@BP]

Here was a race I made a decent size bet...the 2.

Watch the race. Vagabond

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseDisplay.do?track=SAR&country=USA&raceNo=7&raceDate=20170729

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not any better as a handicapper on turf than I am on dirt this year. These are the numbers in 2017 from 876 races.

My top 2 choices on dirt represent 23% of the total entries and win 57% of the time.

My top 2 choices on turf represent 21% of the entries and win again 57% of the races.

The difference is in price. On dirt horses that are 2-1 or less win 26% of the time on dirt and only 14% of the time on grass. So 43% of the winners are going to be 5/2 or higher on turf and only to only 31% of the time on dirt. All around it is just a friendlier betting surface.

[Dahoss9698]

Here was a race I made a decent size bet...the 2.

Watch the race. Vagabond

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseDisplay.do?track=SAR&country=USA&raceNo=7&raceDate=20170729

I bet this horse also. Don't worry, we'll get it back with her later in the meet. That was a nightmare trip

[Afleet]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

Pray for rain-that's what I do

[Afleet]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

Buy the rags for the turf races-$5 per race, $15 minimum. You will thank me later

[thespaah]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

One of my favorite angles is first time turf with zero turf starts in career.
I figure there is a a good reason for the surface switch.
The connections must believe the horse has a good chance with this move.
If possible, look at confirmation. Horses with larger hooves tend to perform better on grass. Longer framed horses tend to do well on grass. Except in sprints. However, I will include this type if it looks like the speed will collapse.
Also. Look at your videos. Because of the generally larger fields,Turf racing is much more "trip intensive". If a horse that interests you has had trip trouble last time out, I'd bet them. This ties into the next. Which is.......
look at the rider. Very important to include horses in your bets in today's start are under a superior rider than last time out.
Obviously, better jockey will not get their mount into trouble. At least, one would hope.
Turf handicapping is an animal all its own.

[thespaah]

Try it out at Gulfstream for a while...so you could be 0/28.

My best advice for handicapping the grass races? PASS them...and concentrate on the dirt. The turf is an acquired taste, IMO...and I hesitate to believe the bettors who claim to excel at it.

Compared to dirt I tend to suck at dirt handicapping. I am much more likely to cash on grass events.
Dunno if you've even seen my expression, "Horse racing nuclear winter".....I mean it....Once the cold weather sets in and grass racing goes to sleep, I all but stop betting horses.

[thespaah]

Try Del Mar turf. I'm a 25% on both Saratoga's turf courses. Am a 40% right now at Del Mar. I've been seeing chalk and nonsense at Toga. The best bets are good horses with bad trainers. Everybody is betting connections at the meet. I am the anti trainer handicapper!

yep....Saw a race on opening day with the Pletcher/Velazquez combo monstrously over bet.
5 th race MSW.... I ignored the horse at 6/5....
It beat three of ten horses.
Here is a link to the chart
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SAR072117USA.pdf

[Dahoss9698]

Oy vey

[betovernetcapper]

I ran a test of the last 100 grass races run in North America & using the two horses with the fastest final quarter, the results were 20% with an ROI of $1.31. Using the same test I used the horse with the fastest final quarter & top Sustained Pace & I got 33% winners with an ROI of $1.06. Anyway I look at it most grass races are decided by late speed. Oh yes & looking at the tote board at 3.3 minutes to post & consulting a dream book. :)

[Dahoss9698]

Oy vey

Where did Nitro's post about how he's able to narrow a field down to 5 contenders go?

We should all be privy to that brilliance.

[cj]

Where did Nitro's post about how he's able to narrow a field down to 5 contenders go?

We should all be privy to that brilliance.

I told him to start a new thread, was totally off topic here.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I ran a test of the last 100 grass races run in North America & using the two horses with the fastest final quarter, the results were 20% with an ROI of $1.31. Using the same test I used the horse with the fastest final quarter & top Sustained Pace & I got 33% winners with an ROI of $1.06. Anyway I look at it most grass races are decided by late speed. Oh yes & looking at the tote board at 3.3 minutes to post & consulting a dream book. :)

You are on the right track here. Keep testing and playing with this. I use the 3 pace figures and speed figure with sabermetric concepts. I've got 3 major ratings for dirt and 2 minor ratings and 2 major turf ratings and 2 minor ones. It took about 5 years and 18 different formulas to come up with the ratings before I was satisfied. Then about 2 years to validate their worth and create working theories among them. Finally feeling pretty solid about it all this year. Using some of Pizzola's concepts have been a big help also.

Bottomline you have to come up with something YOU trust and create and validate. Even with this you still are going to see head scratching results, especially at big meets like this. BUt it's not uncommon to see a rating throwing 60-70-80% winners from the top 2. That along with price friendliness on turf is a solid foundation to play upon. Keep going with your work above!

[JohnGalt1]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

Like you, I've had my problems with grass races.

Michael Pizzolla's book, "Handicapping Magic" explains how he handles turf races.

Two things he recommends, that goes against mainstream thoughts, is first to use all turf races in the pp's, and find the best/fastest/most representative race for a pace line. (Use your judgment for this.) and don't use a variant to adjust your figure. That means don't use Beyer or Bris speed numbers because they include a variant.

And if you make a pace figure instead of using one number, I make Hambleton pace figures, you can see which horses are the better closers, an asset on the turf.

I also make class and form factor ratings to narrow my selection.

Especially on turf, the classier horse with no form defects and a pace/speed figure within 5 points is who I usually bet. If 2 qualify, I bet both to win if the odds are high enough.

Betting 2 to win also reduces losing streaks.

Hope this helps.

Figures from sprints going to routes or vice versa use at your own discretion. The elevated figures for marathons should not be used unless today's race is a marathon.

[Robert Fischer]

Race 'flow' is generally a bit more complex on turf than on dirt. Worth mentioning in this type of context.

The pace, and your information as to the quality of the horses in different parts of the pace, is very important, as it is on dirt.

Often those primary factors drive the race flow in an obvious logical progression.
Other times, measures such as fractions can seem to be at odds with the race flow.

When several horses are running in unison, there is a significant possibility that they are running within a favorable race flow.

Like to see a horse who separates himself from the pack in some way. When running in unison, I want to see the horse win those 'races within a race'.
I also want to see a horse do some running outside of those flows; where this horse is making a lone move.

While there are times that a trip is so bad that a horse is completely darkened, a top 'A' horses in a race or class will generally do some running against the flow, while the 'B' horses will only run within a favorable flow.

[JohnGalt1]

Here is one example method


Example 12 horse turf race starter allowance
wed sar r3 (scroll down to wed) http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/GEMOLOGIST/2009/summary.html
1 = 4,5?,8
2 = 6,7,10,12
3 = 1,2,3,11

Patsy? = The public, who will bet the 5 Carbon Data down to favoritism, mainly because of his trainer.
(If you don't know who the patsy is by the time you reach this step, YOU are the patsy, and should skip any serious betting in the race.)

wager structure = I'll make 4,8 my'a's , and use five 'b's: 5,6,7,10,12 in this twelve horse field.

This is one of 4 horses I will play today.

Five horses are close in Performance Class Ratings.

One of those should win.

I bet the 4 Shamcat and 12 King of Spades both to win and will box both in one exacta and box 4, 12, and 8 Astounding.

The 1 Nexrad has the fastest race, but no other reason to like him. The 4 is 2 points slower, and the 12 is 5 points slower, so with their higher PCR they are my win plays. The 8 has the fastest final fraction.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Race 'flow' is generally a bit more complex on turf than on dirt. Worth mentioning in this type of context.

The pace, and your information as to the quality of the horses in different parts of the pace, is very important, as it is on dirt.

Often those primary factors drive the race flow in an obvious logical progression.
Other times, measures such as fractions can seem to be at odds with the race flow.

When several horses are running in unison, there is a significant possibility that they are running within a favorable race flow.

Like to see a horse who separates himself from the pack in some way. When running in unison, I want to see the horse win those 'races within a race'.
I also want to see a horse do some running outside of those flows; where this horse is making a lone move.

While there are times that a trip is so bad that a horse is completely darkened, a top 'A' horses in a race or class will generally do some running against the flow, while the 'B' horses will only run within a favorable flow.

Some of what you say here is what I meant from being influenced by Pizzola. Raw times are innacurate, we all know it. But some basic looks at them are helpful when they are extreme. If there are 3 horses in today's turf race who all had big LP finishes it makes coplete sense if the 6f was run in 1:14. I'll take a horse who finished almost as well but against a 1:11 pace. I really started to dig out winners last winter at GP using this basic comparison.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here lets' look at race 3 at Toga today.

First I want one of the top 2 speed figures that also have a big turf rating.

:4:-95 speed-198 turf vs 111.7

:12:-97-196, 92-199 vs 111.7 and 113.1

The best Turf ratings go to :8: and :12:

:8:-88-210 vs 112.3

:12:-88-206 vs 112.3 both from same race. Also 4 and 12 from same previous race.

:3:-89-200 vs 111.7

:6:-90-159 vs 109.6

I think if it's speed favoring the :6: could win and is lightly raced. The :3: jsut seems like there are better closers.

I don't like the outside post on :12:. The :4:faced 110.2 last out ans is my bet.But I think the :8: with back class is bigtime contender.

Double key both and win bets. box with :12:.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here lets' look at race 3 at Toga today.

First I want one of the top 2 speed figures that also have a big turf rating.

:4:-95 speed-198 turf vs 111.7

:12:-97-196, 92-199 vs 111.7 and 113.1

The best Turf ratings go to :8: and :12:

:8:-88-210 vs 112.3

:12:-88-206 vs 112.3 both from same race. Also 4 and 12 from same previous race.

:3:-89-200 vs 111.7

:6:-90-159 vs 109.6

I think if it's speed favoring the :6: could win and is lightly raced. The :3: jsut seems like there are better closers.

I don't like the outside post on :12:. The :4:faced 110.2 last out ans is my bet.But I think the :8: with back class is bigtime contender.

Double key both and win bets. box with :12:.

Finish :11::8::7:

I've seen plenty of this. I could have handicapped this race for hours and not given that winner a shot. Toga is tough. I consider myself a solid turf player. Things like this fall into the saying I used earlier in the thread, the winner and placer were both chalk and nonsense. It happens. On to the next race! That's how this meet is played.

[Robert Fischer]

Finish :11::8::7:

I've seen plenty of this. I could have handicapped this race for hours and not given that winner a shot. Toga is tough. I consider myself a solid turf player. Things like this fall into the saying I used earlier in the thread, the winner and placer were both chalk and nonsense. It happens. On to the next race! That's how this meet is played.


That race is a good example.

If this bunch knocks heads in the near future, should we assume that :11: is the best?

No.
A couple long shots set the pace with :5: sitting in prime real estate, and the :8: tracking the 5, while a bit wider.

When the running began, the :5: was set down in a drive, and the :8: proved best, by out-moving the 5.

Not so fast... Lezcano patiently waited in the rear with the :11:. He had a shot for 3rd or 4th money, and who knows what would happen up front. After the 5 and 8 were done with their little internal battle, :11: was able to capitalize with an opportunistic last move.

[GMB@BP]

Finish :11::8::7:

I've seen plenty of this. I could have handicapped this race for hours and not given that winner a shot. Toga is tough. I consider myself a solid turf player. Things like this fall into the saying I used earlier in the thread, the winner and placer were both chalk and nonsense. It happens. On to the next race! That's how this meet is played.

My written comment for my notes, pre race "wide open event that would need 5-6 deep"...and the 11 was not one of those horses !!!!!!

I consider myself a below average turf player with a "if you use enough you will get by this leg" approach

[River11]

Play Indiana Grand and you don't have to worry about turf. Seems most days they're off the turf, even yesterday with no rain in a week they were off the turf due to a broken sprinkler head flooding the club house turn.

[deathandgravity]

One thing I have started considering (or at least look at) when handicapping turf is the BRIS Pedigree number.

Top 4 BRIS Turf Pedigree for the race:
:12: 116
:11: 114
:3: 113
:8: 113

I haven’t been capturing in my database & probably won’t since I am not really playing much anymore & not worth the effort.

Just something to look @.

[burnsy]

I don't start betting until after 3 pm. But until the track changes the turf course will give you prices with the speed. Today the :7:, in the 6th was a play, he lost by a snout at 7-1 and should of been put up. I didn't have the :5: that caused the trouble. The other one was :9:in the 10th. That worked out well. Couldn't go Wednesday, had to work. But I've had 6 winners in 3 days of going at the 5th or 6th race, 3 were on the turf courses. 5 of them went wire to wire and the 6th one sat second before taking charge. The lowest one paid 2-1 on Monday. It doesn't work all the time because even the jocks know (about being up front) and sometimes they burn the pace. But I'll go right back to it with these prices if I can catch at least one a day like this.

Been working this angle for years and its not the first time I've talked about it on here. Watch the kick back on the Turf course....its fast and dry.

[GMB@BP]

I bet Gran Jete pretty good in the Beverly D.

How do you handicap for that?

[Dahoss9698]

I bet Gran Jete pretty good in the Beverly D.

How do you handicap for that?

I did too. You can just never tell what you'll get with Rosario. When you're that much the best why even get yourself in that spot?

[GMB@BP]

I did too. You can just never tell what you'll get with Rosario. When you're that much the best why even get yourself in that spot?

The thing is he never made a plan, if he just stays inside it opens and he wins, instead he panicked when there was no hole and then loses on a horse who was much the best.

Oh yea I will get it back next race when she is 2/5.

[Dahoss9698]

The thing is he never made a plan, if he just stays inside it opens and he wins, instead he panicked when there was no hole and then loses on a horse who was much the best.

Oh yea I will get it back next race when she is 2/5.

I'm planning on getting it back on the 3 next race at Del Mar. I just wish Theriot wasnt riding.

[GMB@BP]

I'm planning on getting it back on the 3 next race at Del Mar. I just wish Theriot wasnt riding.

I am against the Baffert horse in the Best Pal, going with Kent's horse...hoping he does better for me than last week.

[Dahoss9698]

I am against the Baffert horse in the Best Pal, going with Kent's horse...hoping he does better for me than last week.

Winner got the trip I wanted my horse to get. Theriot figured it'd be better to duel for lead. That worked out well for him.

[GMB@BP]

And then Rosario does that....man this game.

[Dahoss9698]

I did too. You can just never tell what you'll get with Rosario. When you're that much the best why even get yourself in that spot?

Ultimate Jekyl and Hyde. I would've been alive to all in Pick 3 had he not rode like a moron in Beverly D.

All Beach Patrol needed was Florent Geroux off :lol::lol::lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I bet Gran Jete pretty good in the Beverly D.

How do you handicap for that?

I was all pumped up because I hit what I thought what was an obvious exacta and win in race 3. Turf ratings were 205 and 200. The rest mere mid 190's at best. It was all down hill after that. Dacita didn't look great in the PP's to me. The 2 race back looked like it was an inflated figure.. Was weak on my turf ratings. If you trusted her back class and Chad Brown you were rolling. I rolled with the :3: to no avail. Thought the :4: was best on paper though. Anyway Arlington baffled me plenty today. I don't play there enough to understand the turf course.

[JustRalph]

The Saratoga Turf course looks all speed to me. Watched several races that I taped over the last week. I'm getting the Wolf-Serling show on Fox sports via Dish. Looks like all speed and everybody knows it.

[GMB@BP]

The Saratoga Turf course looks all speed to me. Watched several races that I taped over the last week. I'm getting the Wolf-Serling show on Fox sports via Dish. Looks like all speed and everybody knows it.

well its more pronounced on the inner turf. I think the goal is to see what becomes more biased, the inner turf or the dirt track. Its a battle.

[CincyHorseplayer]

They were 0, 2, 2 lengths off at the half on the inner.

And were 4 and 7 off at the half on the outer yesterday.

[JustRalph]

well its more pronounced on the inner turf. I think the goal is to see what becomes more biased, the inner turf or the dirt track. Its a battle.

Yep, I stoped trying to distinguish between them. It seems to me when one speeds up the other acts pretty much the same. Maybe that's a flaw in my thinking, but I'm not betting any real money yet. The wife is getting the itch for a casino trip though......

I think the dirt is speed biased too, but not as bad as the Turf. I'm going to download some stuff and update my database to confirm my eyeballing it

[GMB@BP]

Yep, I stoped trying to distinguish between them. It seems to me when one speeds up the other acts pretty much the same. Maybe that's a flaw in my thinking, but I'm not betting any real money yet. The wife is getting the itch for a casino trip though......

I think the dirt is speed biased too, but not as bad as the Turf. I'm going to download some stuff and update my database to confirm my eyeballing it

The dirt track is a joke right now, out of what 21 days of racing or so i bet its been inside favoring 18 of them.

Its subtle because you can win from behind, but you are required to be inside at least a portion of the race, there are very few 3w3w close with a rush trip no matter what the pace scenario.

Mid pack closers with outside posts have been decimated this meet.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Glad there are biases at Saratoga. Once you adjust you can get into the zone.

[Bullet Plane]

Easy peasy...

Play the Chad Brown horse.

If there are more than one in a race, play the one with the shortest odds.

You won't win much (maybe, if you are a whale, you might win enough to buy a pack of gum) , but if you bet against him, you will lose a lot.

Ask me how I know.

[burnsy]

Glad there are biases at Saratoga. Once you adjust you can get into the zone.


Exactly, take your figs and numbers and toss them in the trash. First thing you do to hit these turf races. I laugh when the public handicappers use the term "numbers" and "fig".......its all about what kind of trip it takes to win on the grass. I love grass racing here, its about replays and trips more than any old number.

For weeks now, if a horse is more than 4 or 5 lengths off......it may get a placing.......it most likely ain't winning. If that closer is a short price, you have it by the short hairs. :popcorn: Toss a roo for the top spot.

Rained like hell yesterday so that usually changes things up for a little while but not always. Last day will not be predictable and there's only one race on each course. This is like the third or fourth year I've been saying this on here. Two years ago when I did the "blog" I talked about it a lot................still works. Ride that bias right to the window when it takes hold. One can get a wicked groove going.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Exactly, take your figs and numbers and toss them in the trash. First thing you do to hit these turf races. I laugh when the public handicappers use the term "numbers" and "fig".......its all about what kind of trip it takes to win on the grass. I love grass racing here, its about replays and trips more than any old number.

For weeks now, if a horse is more than 4 or 5 lengths off......it may get a placing.......it most likely ain't winning. If that closer is a short price, you have it by the short hairs. :popcorn: Toss a roo for the top spot.

Rained like hell yesterday so that usually changes things up for a little while but not always. Last day will not be predictable and there's only one race on each course. This is like the third or fourth year I've been saying this on here. Two years ago when I did the "blog" I talked about it a lot................still works. Ride that bias right to the window when it takes hold. One can get a wicked groove going.

I still used all my tools and figs for these races and turf got me a winning meet but I had to adjust once again. Excepting 2015 been that way a while. Average mutual is down to 12.50 cents though(14.60 last 3 years). I cooled off after the first few weeks but not really, prices just went down. If I have relative equals I always bet the higher price more often than not. But found some great bets on turf. I struggled with the dirt more, mainly because of price. This last week I have had leads at the 16th pole by a length or more and ended up 3rd about 4 times. Frustrating. Plus early on would finish second to horses I wouldn't come up with hundreds of hours of handicapping. I've had a solid but not great meet. Big exotics eluded me.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Not sure on the price but will take :2: Takeover Target in the Bernard Baruch. Not hard to find but hoping to get 7/2 or better. Good luck!

[GMB@BP]

Who would have thought the 7 would be rated after his last win in the grass stake today at Saratoga. I wish I knew what these guys were going to do before the race, u obviously cant use a form to make that decision.

[Tom]

It is sad when the most important factor in a race is the surface.
I thought they hired track supers to take care of that?

I hope they aren't paying too much for his services.

[Afleet]

Who would have thought the 7 would be rated after his last win in the grass stake today at Saratoga. I wish I knew what these guys were going to do before the race, u obviously cant use a form to make that decision.

I agree; I can handicap, but the form is almost meaningless in grass races