How bad are these 3yo colts?

[Fager Fan]

After those fractions, Good Samaritan shouldn't have been able to run down the Derby and Preakness winners, much less run right by them.

[RunForTheRoses]

Pretty bad, might be some good betting aces at least.

[GMB@BP]

That was a dreadful race...only horse I could possibly play out of that race is Pavel who was 3w the whole race off a gold rail, second start and all.

I wont touch the 5 in the Travers.

[Fager Fan]

That was a dreadful race...only horse I could possibly play out of that race is Pavel who was 3w the whole race off a gold rail, second start and all.

I wont touch the 5 in the Travers.

What do you dislike about the winner?

[GMB@BP]

What do you dislike about the winner?

Sat back in last on gold rail while the 3 most talented horses duked it out on the turn, swung wide off the turn (not on the turn) and ran down tiring horses. He will be 4/1 in the Travers off this effort, if he was 20/1 not playing him.

The rail was super gold today

[Fager Fan]

Sat back in last on gold rail while the 3 most talented horses duked it out on the turn, swung wide off the turn (not on the turn) and ran down tiring horses. He will be 4/1 in the Travers off this effort, if he was 20/1 not playing him.

The rail was super gold today

There wasn't much duking going on. Wasn't Dreaming also on the rail?

This doesn't bode too well for tomorrow.

[GMB@BP]

There wasn't much duking going on. Wasn't Dreaming also on the rail?

This doesn't bode too well for tomorrow.

Always Dreaming barely has a pulse in my opinion, is that the worst third in history?

I think when 3 horses, the most talented horses hook up at the 3/8ths, then a horse swoops by them on the turn...its like an auto bet against for me for the next race.

I am not hating on the horse, just stating how I feel about the race.

I almost will assure the winner of the Travers was not in that race, bet tomorrows race comes up much stronger.

[Afleet]

Sat back in last on gold rail while the 3 most talented horses duked it out on the turn, swung wide off the turn (not on the turn) and ran down tiring horses. He will be 4/1 in the Travers off this effort, if he was 20/1 not playing him.

The rail was super gold today

24.13 48.53 1:13.27 1:38.23
Final Time:
1:50.69

Seems like modest fractions. I would say Good Samaritan ran down horses on a slow pace hardly being asked

The most talented horse won it

[cj]

The track was quite slow today in my opinion, not just for the Dandy but for all the dirt races. It has been slow all meet.

[Afleet]

I did post this on another board:

Not much of a field. Going with Good Samaritan for the minor upset

Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Always Dreaming (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 123 T A Pletcher
2 Cloud Computing (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 123 C C Brown
3 Giuseppe the Great (KY) 3/C L L Saez 117 N P Zito
4 Pavel (KY) 3/C L M Gutierrez 117 D F O'Neill
5 Good Samaritan (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 119 W I Mott

[classhandicapper]

I haven't watched the replays or gone over the card yet. But it's not impossible for sprints and routes to play differently.

There are no rules that say if sprints are carrying speed or that the rail is moving horses up the track must be the same at all distances. The backstretch can be different than the turn, which can be different than the stretch, which can be different than the first turn etc.. The turns especially can be different because they are banked and drain differently.

So given that the Jim Dandy was the only 2 turn route of the day, you can't necessarily know how the track was playing at 9F. Personally, I don't even know if they worked on the track prior to the race. Maintenance or lack thereof can change it.

[Robert Fischer]

1. The pace/flow/dynamics were a bit harder than the numeric pace.
If you have to call the track slow or tiring for this to work for you, by all means. Always Dreaming opening up on the backstretch. Cloud Computing tracking from the opening bell. Cloud Computing and Pavel moving into the opening of the far turn. Two horses who were hunter and hunted, pretty much the whole race, CC was sacrificed slightly to hound on the far turn, while Always Dreaming was hounded a bit. The moderate-slow fractions did even the battle a bit, by handicapping Cloud Computing, while the dynamics and flow handicapped Always Dreaming. Think of it as a balanced equation (that equals zero or sub-critical :rolleyes: ).

2. Neither star ran their 'good race'.
Neither could separate from one another (, or Pavel(who ran roughly equally well as the two stars, all things considered, and lost significant ground near the pace)). Both did the herd-dynamic 'hanging' thing, together when they hit the stretch.

3. Good Samaritan is legitimately good
He was best (in spite of the 4th finish position) in a pretty good edition of the Belmont Derby. He clearly has quality and enough stamina. There was a possibility that he wouldn't adapt to the dirt. There was a question of whether his 'good race' could match-up with either of the two stars' 'good race'. There was never a question of whether Good Samaritan was good enough to win with a good setup.

[Tom]

How bad are they?
They are so bad, NYRA is going to let them run in the Hopeful.

[Afleet]

How bad are they?
They are so bad, NYRA is going to let them run in the Hopeful.

that will be a great betting race:D

[classhandicapper]

[B]2. Neither star ran their 'good race'.
Neither could separate from one another (, or Pavel(who ran roughly equally well as the two stars, all things considered, and lost significant ground near the pace)). Both did the herd-dynamic 'hanging' thing, together when they hit the stretch.
.

I think the way Pavel ran is a key to the quality of the race.

If a MSW sprinter can stretch out to 9F and be very competitive with the Derby and Preakness winner either he's a very special horse or the stakes quality horses are very weak. Pavel looked like a good prospect coming in off a very fast race, but no one has even come out of that race to win.

We'll see what happens in the Haskell, but right now it looks like Classic Empire may be the best in the division and Always Dreaming may be another Pletcher flash in the pan.

[Tom]

but right now it looks like Classic Empire may be the best in the division

Call me when he wins something.:sleeping:

[cj]

I haven't watched the replays or gone over the card yet. But it's not impossible for sprints and routes to play differently.

There are no rules that say if sprints are carrying speed or that the rail is moving horses up the track must be the same at all distances. The backstretch can be different than the turn, which can be different than the stretch, which can be different than the first turn etc.. The turns especially can be different because they are banked and drain differently.

So given that the Jim Dandy was the only 2 turn route of the day, you can't necessarily know how the track was playing at 9F. Personally, I don't even know if they worked on the track prior to the race. Maintenance or lack thereof can change it.


Not to mention that the odds of the wire to wire sprint winners were 0.85, 0.50, 0.60, and 2.55...and the 2.55 horse would have been 0.50 or so if trained by a bigger local name.

[Robert Fischer]

We'll see what happens in the Haskell, but right now it looks like Classic Empire may be the best in the division and Always Dreaming may be another Pletcher flash in the pan.

Haskell - I can tell I have a problem because I am secretly rooting for Practical Joke to win a fast race, and amaze all of his pseudo-trainers/experts who have confidently declared him a 1-turn horse.
(talking to self:)Breathe RF. :lol: Put, that coffee, down. Back away from the horseracing. :coffee:

Lol, we could really use a huge performance from Timeline to grab the division banner. IMO, Girvin grinding out a mediocre win would be the nail in the coffin.


Division - A case could certainly be made that Classic Empire ran the best recent 3yo route stakes (best in the Preakness). On that thinking, he has the Crown right now, prior to the Haskell.
I'm not sure that wins with the voters, and I'm not sure he's physically capable of being a factor in the division. Hopefully he actually races in the Travers, and runs his good race.

[classhandicapper]

Not to mention that the odds of the wire to wire sprint winners were 0.85, 0.50, 0.60, and 2.55...and the 2.55 horse would have been 0.50 or so if trained by a bigger local name.

Today's 1st race was interesting also. Granted it's a new day and the fractions look quick, but the speed stopped dead and crawled home at 9F. Let's see how the rest of the day goes.

[GMB@BP]

am i supposed to be impressed with that race at monmouth?

its like throwing darts with these three year olds.

Practical joke cant get a better trip and still lost.

[Tom]

Musical Chairs.

And the third TC race poorly represented today.

Gonna be a great Hopeful.

[PointGiven]

I generally don't like when it comes up about a 3 year old crop. But gotta say this year qualifies. Jim Dandy and now this mess.

[Robert Fischer]

IMO, Girvin grinding out a mediocre win would be the nail in the coffin.


yikes

[GMB@BP]

One thing for sure is a horse like Girvin can really grind out a lot of checks

[classhandicapper]

McCraken does the same thing practically every time. He has a really good turn of foot, but he tends to make his move a bit too soon. Then he doesn't have a lot left in the final 1/16th. Sometimes he wins anyway because he's just better, but you can't get away with that against horses of very similar ability. I think a reasonable case can be made that Girvin and Practical Joke were better off moving last and that McCraken would have won had he waited longer.

[GMB@BP]

McCraken does the same thing practically every time. He has a really good turn of foot, but he tends to make his move a bit too soon. Then he doesn't have a lot left in the final 1/16th. Sometimes he wins anyway because he's just better, but you can't get away with that against horses of very similar ability. I think a reasonable case can be made that Girvin and Practical Joke were better off moving last and that McCraken would have won had he waited longer.

I always bet horse who make the first move rather than the last move when they face off again.

Girvin was solid and had a bit of a trip...Practical Joke was the one who had the PT. I wouldnt touch him next out at 10f...........he will jog i am sure of it:lol:

[Tom]

Things to do:

1. Find a 1 turn stake race
2. Find another one.

[classhandicapper]

Call me when he wins something.:sleeping:

I'll call you when he gets through a workout OK. ;)

[classhandicapper]

I always bet horse who make the first move rather than the last move when they face off again.

Girvin was solid and had a bit of a trip...Practical Joke was the one who had the PT. I wouldnt touch him next out at 10f...........he will jog i am sure of it:lol:

It's sometimes not clear to me one way or the other.

Generally, I like first move, but if the race flow favored closers I'd rather the horse wait. I thought the pace would be honest. But when Battle of Midway got off badly and then rushed up inside it kind of changed the race a bit and helped me. It was more tilted towards closers.

I had both Practical Joke and McCraken to win pretty heavy and had a large exact box. I thought I had a great shot at a nice score at one point in the stretch and I wound up with zilch.

I also had big win bet on Awesome Banner and a huge exacta box with Limousine Liberal on Saturday. At least I saved to place on this one.

Rough weekend for me.

[GMB@BP]

It's sometimes not clear to me one way or the other.

Generally, I like first move, but if the race flow favored closers I'd rather the horse wait. I thought the pace would be honest. But when Battle of Midway got off badly and then rushed up inside it kind of changed the race a bit and helped me. It was more tilted towards closers.

I had both Practical Joke and McCraken to win pretty heavy and had a large exact box. I thought I had a great shot at a nice score at one point in the stretch and I wound up with zilch.

I also had big win bet on Awesome Banner and a huge exacta box with Limousine Liberal on Saturday. At least I saved to place on this one.

Rough weekend for me.

Limousine Liberal had no shot on that track, but that I guess is a different thread.

[classhandicapper]

Limousine Liberal had no shot on that track, but that I guess is a different thread.

At that stage I didn't have a strong opinion on the track because virtually every inside winner was a big favorite. After the race I realized I probably made a bad bet given the way the race developed. This is one of those things that comes up from time to time. Sometimes you back off or adjust your play to the track and you find out the track was honest & want to shoot yourself. Sometimes this happens. :bang:

[GMB@BP]

At that stage I didn't have a strong opinion on the track because virtually every inside winner was a big favorite. After the race I realized I probably made a bad bet given the way the race developed. This is one of those things that comes up from time to time. Sometimes you back off or adjust your play to the track and you find out the track was honest & want to shoot yourself. Sometimes this happens. :bang:

Its been inside almost all meet, until I see a change it doesnt take me long into a card to believe it has not changed. It seems like early in ever card we see a decent speed horse win by open lengths early in the day.

[Afleet]

[QUOTE=classhandicapper;2201595]

I had both Practical Joke and McCraken to win pretty heavy and had a large exact box. I thought I had a great shot at a nice score at one point in the stretch and I wound up with zilch.
/QUOTE]

I would have been pretty excited turning for home w/this bet

[classhandicapper]

I haven't watched the replays or gone over the card yet. But it's not impossible for sprints and routes to play differently.

There are no rules that say if sprints are carrying speed or that the rail is moving horses up the track must be the same at all distances. The backstretch can be different than the turn, which can be different than the stretch, which can be different than the first turn etc.. The turns especially can be different because they are banked and drain differently.

So given that the Jim Dandy was the only 2 turn route of the day, you can't necessarily know how the track was playing at 9F. Personally, I don't even know if they worked on the track prior to the race. Maintenance or lack thereof can change it.

There were on 4 dirt races yesterday. 2 were sprints and 2 were routes.

The 2 sprints went wire to wire, one in a big win and the other at 6-1.

The 2 speeds in the Shuvee fell apart badly (albeit in fast fractions) and nothing about the 3rd race route seemed to indicate speed was good either.

[dilanesp]

I haven't watched the replays or gone over the card yet. But it's not impossible for sprints and routes to play differently.

There are no rules that say if sprints are carrying speed or that the rail is moving horses up the track must be the same at all distances. The backstretch can be different than the turn, which can be different than the stretch, which can be different than the first turn etc.. The turns especially can be different because they are banked and drain differently.

So given that the Jim Dandy was the only 2 turn route of the day, you can't necessarily know how the track was playing at 9F. Personally, I don't even know if they worked on the track prior to the race. Maintenance or lack thereof can change it.

This is a really good post. Super-good.

People just talk really definitively and simplistically about track biases. Occasionally, that's justified-- there have certainly been tracks where every winner on a card was a speed horse with an inside post-- but most biases are extremely complex and require a great deal of analysis including when the horses come back to really understand.