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View Full Version : Let's Handicap the Jim Dandy S.


letswastemoney
07-28-2017, 09:50 PM
Regardless of whether there's any value, I'm doing this for fun. Here are my thoughts which I posted on Facebook somewhere.

:1: Always Dreaming - Is he done? Yes it's a fair question to ask. Super Saver was done after the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Tough read. He can either win or finish dead last.

:2: Cloud Computing - The most trustworthy entrant. Preakness winner has few holes and should give a good account of himself.

:3: Giuseppe the Great - Just not in the same class probably. But he might take a piece.

:4: Pavel - Incredible confidence shown for the connections to go from career debut to GII against experienced foes so quickly. He can win.

:5: Good Samaritan - Wild card with no dirt starts.

Conclusion:

Cloud Computing over Pavel.

porchy44
07-28-2017, 09:59 PM
Regardless of whether there's any value, I'm doing this for fun. Here are my thoughts which I posted on Facebook somewhere.

:1: Always Dreaming - Is he done? Yes it's a fair question to ask. Super Saver was done after the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Tough read. He can either win or finish dead last.

:2: Cloud Computing - The most trustworthy entrant. Preakness winner has few holes and should give a good account of himself.

:3: Giuseppe the Great - Just not in the same class probably. But he might take a piece.

:4: Pavel - Incredible confidence shown for the connections to go from career debut to GII against experienced foes so quickly. He can win.

:5: Good Samaritan - Wild card with no dirt starts.

Conclusion:

Cloud Computing over Pavel.


I agree with your assessment of Pavel. I will probably make a small win wager on #4 Pavel.

zerosky
07-28-2017, 11:53 PM
I sometimes create an odds line but unlike traditional uses of odds line which play the overlays,
I look for horses bet down from the odds-line to take into account information not included in line. so for this race

:1: 2/1
:2: 3/1
:3: 6/1
:4: 14/1
:5: 3/1

Unfortunately I've not yet developed a method to automate a contender separation between competing bet downs,
In which case I would use traditional reading of the form to decide.

HalvOnHorseracing
07-29-2017, 12:33 AM
I agree with your assessment of Pavel. I will probably make a small win wager on #4 Pavel.

I know that Paul Reddam is inclined to take a shot in big races even if he doesn't have a horse that really fits. The trick is to know when he's serious and when he is shooting the moon. In the case of Pavel, given his 6.5 furlong maiden, it looks like he's more likely to play the Classic Empire role in the Jim Dandy, and fire to the front. If Always Dreaming tries to go, the two horses might fry themselves. That opens it up for Cloud Computing and Giuseppe the Great. But Doug O'Neill has done an excellent job of training for Reddam and has gotten a lot of long shots home. I'm having a hard time seeing how the race is run to give Pavel the advantage, but it may turn out to be a great bet if the horse has talent.

Robert Fischer
07-29-2017, 11:08 AM
Always Dreaming looks very tough here.

Likely tracks Pavel, in about the 2-path. Shows a big response at the top of the stretch.

This is a rested Always Dreaming, who is responding as well as ever in his workouts. He's unlikely to come up empty.

Cloud Computing is prepping for the Travers. Brown and Castellano aren't going to employ any hyper-aggressive tactics, to try to tackle Always Dreaming early. Cloud Computing will be chasing home Always Dreaming's win.

linrom1
07-29-2017, 12:06 PM
You can have Pavel. The horse is just getting a free trip to the East coast care of Frank Conversation, and why not! In a five-horse field , he might get 4th purse money, $30K, which would be same as $50k ALWnX1.

Aerocraft67
07-29-2017, 02:01 PM
Pavel will keep them honest but they'll be on him. Always Dreaming stands to take more pressure from Pavel, but surely he can handle that one, and no way the two favorites let Pavel get too loose. Even if he does, tough to hold on 9f. Seems to set up a little better for Cloud Computing, but all the wise guys seem to be prematurely getting on him and leaving AD for dead, although CC does have upside.

Third is a crapshoot. Maybe Pavel holds on, probably :3: clunks up, maybe :5: transfers enough late turf form to get the show.

Forced to pick, I'd say take the second favorite on top, with the first favorite, then :3: for show. Really really forced, :2:-:1:-:3:.

Tom
07-29-2017, 05:53 PM
How's about me make some $$$ here?

Nick Zito's :3: paired up a new top 95-96 off of a freshening.
Cloud Computing made his big Preakness win of off a 96 previous top. B's off, jock switch, but never been around two turns.
Could be fast up front, this guy can close, as can Good Samaritan, a big ?

I give both a shot here, surely for the underneath slots.

zerosky
07-29-2017, 07:13 PM
:2: for me

Aerocraft67
07-29-2017, 07:16 PM
I just can't see the others. Underneath the top two is complete crap shoot.

Win :2:
Exacta :2:/:1:

Tee
07-29-2017, 07:18 PM
The pedigree of Good Samaritan says the dirt should be no problem. The race shape might be though.

Always Dreaming running his race before the gate opens.?

Tee
07-29-2017, 07:21 PM
Disregard that race shape comment. :D

davew
07-29-2017, 07:22 PM
what does that do to the 3 year-old race?

Preakness and Derby winner getting 3rd and 5th

Tom
07-29-2017, 07:23 PM
Surf and Turf tonight, baybeeee! :headbanger:

n.c
07-29-2017, 07:26 PM
Happy Birthday, Mr. Mott:headbanger:

n.c
07-29-2017, 07:29 PM
all showed up.

RunForTheRoses
07-29-2017, 07:35 PM
Surf and Turf tonight, baybeeee! :headbanger:

That is sort of my name mys instinct was to play. Mahron! But enjoy!

Tee
07-29-2017, 07:51 PM
Good job Tom - enjoy your evening!!

classhandicapper
07-29-2017, 08:21 PM
Surf and Turf tonight, baybeeee! :headbanger:

Good job Tom. Nice!

JustRalph
07-29-2017, 09:05 PM
How's about me make some $$$ here?

Nick Zito's :3: paired up a new top 95-96 off of a freshening.
Cloud Computing made his big Preakness win of off a 96 previous top. B's off, jock switch, but never been around two turns.
Could be fast up front, this guy can close, as can Good Samaritan, a big ?

I give both a shot here, surely for the underneath slots.

Nice Job Tom 👍

zico20
07-29-2017, 09:24 PM
Always Dreaming's next race better be in a grade 3 or cheaper. He had absolutely no excuse for the set up he got. To blow a four length lead in slow fractions is amazing for a Derby winner.:ThmbDown:

JustRalph
07-29-2017, 11:32 PM
Always Dreaming's next race better be in a grade 3 or cheaper. He had absolutely no excuse for the set up he got. To blow a four length lead in slow fractions is amazing for a Derby winner.:ThmbDown:

He was 12 in front of the winner at one point

cj
07-29-2017, 11:41 PM
Always Dreaming's next race better be in a grade 3 or cheaper. He had absolutely no excuse for the set up he got. To blow a four length lead in slow fractions is amazing for a Derby winner.:ThmbDown:

Yeah, I'm sure Todd is looking to run the Derby winner in a G3 or listed stakes.

Horses don't seem to be allowed preps or conditioning races any more without being condemned to mediocrity. Maybe he'll rebound, maybe not, but listening to Todd (and Chad Brown too in regard to Cloud Computing) it was pretty clear this wasn't a target race.