DRF sold

[cj]

http://www.drf.com/news/daily-racing-form-sold-z-capital-partners

[ReplayRandall]

http://www.drf.com/news/daily-racing-form-sold-z-capital-partners

Introduce yourself to your new owners CJ, by asking for a nice, healthy raise $$$!! After all, you are the future right now at DRF, as the Beyers go by way of the dinosaurs...;)

[dilanesp]

Introduce yourself to your new owners CJ, by asking for a nice, healthy raise $$$!! After all, you are the future right now at DRF, as the Beyers go by way of the dinosaurs...;)

Beyers are a brand name and will be around awhile. But that doesn't mean they won't change the methodology.

[ReplayRandall]

Beyers are a brand name and will be around awhile. But that doesn't mean they won't change the methodology.

Enron, Lehman Brothers and Arthur Andersen were brand names too..:rip:

[carterista]

Z capital Management LLC is a private equity firm specializing in growth capital, buyout, distressed, turnaround, special situations, balance sheet and/or operational improvements, repairing the capital structures, and leveraged finance investments. The firm makes investments in middle market companies via complex transactions through restructuring and/or bankruptcy processes, opportunistic acquisitions and special situations.

You just got bought out by a vulture fund. They'll strip whatever assets DRF has, sell off the most profitable divisions, load it up with debt and loot all they can and then file for bankruptcy.

Of course, they'll fire people left and right and jack up prices.

So long print editions

[NTamm1215]

Beyer figures are going nowhere.

[FakeNameChanged]

Z capital Management LLC is a private equity firm specializing in growth capital, buyout, distressed, turnaround, special situations, balance sheet and/or operational improvements, repairing the capital structures, and leveraged finance investments. The firm makes investments in middle market companies via complex transactions through restructuring and/or bankruptcy processes, opportunistic acquisitions and special situations.

You just got bought out by a vulture fund. They'll strip whatever assets DRF has, sell off the most profitable divisions, load it up with debt and loot all they can and then file for bankruptcy.

Of course, they'll fire people left and right and jack up prices.

So long print editions
My last company, where I worked before retiring, was bought out by the same firm-Z-Capital Mgmt. Nothing happened during the first year, other than lots of walk-throughs by their staff and outside consultants. At first they released the prior consultants who had set up shop for the previous 2 years. In the last year and a half, the President and VP were "retired" and several other staff changes. Both were way overdue.

[AltonKelsey]

Shown 'Z' door?

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/889992926654222336

[jdhanover]

Lots of room for improvement at DRF...maybe this will make it happen over time

[GMB@BP]

Beyer figures are going nowhere.

can we do something with the Moss pace figures in Formulator please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cj]

can we do something with the Moss pace figures in Formulator please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It has been a while since I said on Byk's show that my stuff will replace Moss, but it going to happen and it this point it is sooner rather than later. Things got put on hold as people can probably imagine with the announcement today.

[carterista]

There is always a 'sucker' born every day.

This is not a prediction because I can say this with certainty that this outfit will do this first and foremost: cut costs by diminishing the quality of its digital media and like all print media, ponder how to best eliminate its printed product, which will unquestionably drive its business further down.

Of course these financial types think they're smarter than the rest of us: I do remember UBET, though, and how sports betting would turn it into a giant cash machine back in 2000 or so?

One does not have to be a genius to realize that a business that lost 50% of its value during last 10-years, can't be in a BULL market and I don't care how smart these people think they are, they are not going to make a dent in sports betting world: Las Vegas Casinos are too many steps ahead of them already.

It's also too bad because some of the well known racing personalities will be laid off and ,of course, horse players are dependent on good and reliable data; but, I doubt that this outfit has any commitment in this area.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... by diminishing the quality of its digital media...

I'm not exactly a qualified judge of digital media, but they have a massive task ahead of them.

[thaskalos]

I wonder if I should shut down my DRF-Bets account.

[outofthebox]

It has been a while since I said on Byk's show that my stuff will replace Moss, but it going to happen and it this point it is sooner rather than later. Things got put on hold as people can probably imagine with the announcement today.Does this mean it would be foolish to pay for both subscriptions when the time comes?

[GMB@BP]

Does this mean it would be foolish to pay for both subscriptions when the time comes?

Well if its in Formulator thats quite a difference in unlimited price plans! Even the regular full digital form is a few bucks per card.

[cj]

Does this mean it would be foolish to pay for both subscriptions when the time comes?

I don't know what all will be included other than the pace figures themselves. I'm just the figure guy. :)

[Aerocraft67]

It's foreboding to get acquired by a private equity concern, but the move makes sense. DRF has been up against a double whammy as a media play covering a topic of contracting interest. Media has undergone a difficult transformation to the internet, and most of the folks still left playing the game are jaded and ornery.

DRF's 123-year legacy can't make it any easier to navigate the transition, but the legacy brand is certainly worth something. The ADW aside, what is DRF without Watchmaker, Illman, Beer, Russo? It also has strong young talent like Bernier. Any housecleaning is highly unlikely to involve the talent.

Given the contracting media and racing environment, private equity buyout makes sense. There'll be some pain no doubt, but seems like the way we hit the reset button in situations like this. There's still value there in decline, but you need to restructure to realize it.

I hope it goes well. Z Capital has some experience with gambling concerns, which is a positive.

[Aerocraft67]

Z Capital has some experience with gambling concerns, which is a positive.

Actually, the portfolio is diverse (restaurants, industrial manufacturers, etc.), but the only media play I saw in there was a religious publisher. The gaming tranche includes casinos and a fantasy sports site. There are a few automotive performance/racing concerns, so I guess there's a racing angle.

[PaceAdvantage]

First off, DRF was owned by a private equity firm prior to this sale, were they not?

Secondly, for those predicting the end of the print product...LMAO

You really have no clue.

That's not happening in anyone's foreseeable future.

[Aerocraft67]

Good point about change of hands rather than dropping into private equity for the first time. That Bloomberg article suggests roughly 50% reduction in valuation in the transaction. It also notes 5 million print copies sold last year, so, yeah, improving the digital offering won't likely include 86ing the print book any time soon.

[classhandicapper]

Speaking as a horse player, IMO this a very good development for DRF and its customers long term. The new ownership is looking to make significant investments in the growth of the company. IMO, having this kind of financial strength behind DRF is going to accelerate changes for the better in a variety of ways, but especially for customers if people are patient.

[dilanesp]

First off, DRF was owned by a private equity firm prior to this sale, were they not?

Secondly, for those predicting the end of the print product...LMAO

You really have no clue.

That's not happening in anyone's foreseeable future.

+1

Anyone who attends the races live will see tons of horseplayers using the printed product. If you get to the track 30 minutes before the first race you will see horseplayers purchasing the product. And if you leave after the race you will see horseplayers purchasing tomorrow's product.

The print edition of the Racing Form has plenty of life left in it.

[thaskalos]

Speaking as a horse player, IMO this a very good development for DRF and its customers long term. The new ownership is looking to make significant investments in the growth of the company. IMO, having this kind of financial strength behind DRF is going to accelerate changes for the better in a variety of ways, but especially for customers if people are patient.

The businesses that depend on the "patience" of their customers usually don't fare too well in today's ultra-competitive marketplace. The handicappers who have abandoned the DRF have gone their separate ways with other handicapping-data choices...and they aren't likely to "wait" for the DRF to get its act together. IMO...this recent takeover will affect the DRF employees a lot more than it will the customers.

[thaskalos]

+1

Anyone who attends the races live will see tons of horseplayers using the printed product. If you get to the track 30 minutes before the first race you will see horseplayers purchasing the product. And if you leave after the race you will see horseplayers purchasing tomorrow's product.

The print edition of the Racing Form has plenty of life left in it.
There was a time when the DRF was considered to be the "bible of the industry"...and with good reason. But now...it has been relegated to the "minor player" position...IMO. At the "live outlets" that I frequent...the simulcast programs outsell the DRF by a ratio of at least 20-1. And online, where the past performances are free for the bettors...I would hazard to guess that the ratio is even larger than that.

[classhandicapper]

The businesses that depend on the "patience" of their customers usually don't fare too well in today's ultra-competitive marketplace. The handicappers who have abandoned the DRF have gone their separate ways with other handicapping-data choices...and they aren't likely to "wait" for the DRF to get its act together. IMO...this recent takeover will affect the DRF employees a lot more than it will the customers.

I would just say the company now has financial resources and a very motivated growth oriented ownership and previously it was forced to meet short term financial metrics.

[proximity]

There was a time when the DRF was considered to be the "bible of the industry"...and with good reason. But now...it has been relegated to the "minor player" position...IMO. At the "live outlets" that I frequent...the simulcast programs outsell the DRF by a ratio of at least 20-1. And online, where the past performances are free for the bettors...I would hazard to guess that the ratio is even larger than that.

this.

at the tracks I go to almost everyone buys daily racing program.

[Afleet]

+1

Anyone who attends the races live will see tons of horseplayers using the printed product. If you get to the track 30 minutes before the first race you will see horseplayers purchasing the product. And if you leave after the race you will see horseplayers purchasing tomorrow's product.

The print edition of the Racing Form has plenty of life left in it.

Unfortunately, most of those people you described are in their 60's and 70's

[Afleet]

Horseman's Park in Omaha has a kiosk that prints the DRF, I guess you pay by track (I haven't used it). They used to sell the AM and PM hard copies, but no more.

[thespaah]

There was a time when the DRF was considered to be the "bible of the industry"...and with good reason. But now...it has been relegated to the "minor player" position...IMO. At the "live outlets" that I frequent...the simulcast programs outsell the DRF by a ratio of at least 20-1. And online, where the past performances are free for the bettors...I would hazard to guess that the ratio is even larger than that.

First, the sales of the Form are off because it is bulky product. The paper when to tabloid form years ago, reduced the size of the font, went to thinner print stock...Al the while the price continued to rise far beyond the rate of inflation.
There is so much competition for racing data now.
Yet, the on track DRF runs what ? $7.50 or $8?
I don't mind paying for intellectual product. However, i'm not a simulcast guy. I don't wish to pay for 5 tracks worth of PP's when I need just one.

[thespaah]

If the people running the DRF took a long look at the print periodical industry. they'd realize that eliminating the print version and going strictly on line would be the way to go.

[thespaah]

this.

at the tracks I go to almost everyone buys daily racing program.

Agreed. I was at Saratoga opening day. As I walked in and bought my program, I saw nary a person buying a copy of the Form.
Nor did I see many people using it. Now did I see many of the typically discarded sections used to save seats.
Im and older guy. Been going to the races for 40 years. I used to be a Form junkie. Now i get all the info i need from on line sources and use the program PP's .

[thaskalos]

If the people running the DRF took a long look at the print periodical industry. they'd realize that eliminating the print version and going strictly on line would be the way to go.

The DRF still keeps the worthless track variant that they invented 50+ years ago...because they don't want to "alienate their old-fashioned fan-base". And you think they are going to eliminate the printed version of their product...and piss-off their aging customers even MORE?

Isn't it obvious that the DRF favors TRADITION, over QUALITY?

[proximity]

The DRF still keeps the worthless track variant that they invented 50+ years ago...because they don't want to "alienate their old-fashioned fan-base". And you think they are going to eliminate the printed version of their product...and piss-off their aging customers even MORE?

Isn't it obvious that the DRF favors TRADITION, over QUALITY?

I did hear one gambler telling another one about this last week (it's in daily racing program too) but he had the variant and speed rating mixed up.

"see here how he was running on an 88 track?" :rolleyes:

I think it's time.

[Tom]

To do list:

1. Web page - design one that works
2. Print edition - put the freaking track and races in ORDER
3. Charge the SAME on track or off track -more money is bet off track - charge the fools who go to the track more if anything
(they are already proving themselves suckers by going there).

[proximity]

personally I think the final timeform rating should go into the old sr-tv spot with a pace figure for the first HALF of the race and the beyer figure (which would still be called beyer but....be done by milkowski) going before the running line.

"at the distance" too is within a HALF FURLONG of today's distance.

jmo:)

[Aerocraft67]

DRF has done O.K. making incremental moves to improve its offering and not resting on its predominance, given the constraint of not upending its legacy overnight. Even with its flaws, it’s still the best single source for qualitative and quantitative racing information and wagering. But it has a ways to go in modernizing, rationalizing, and improving its offering.

I like DRF for three reasons. TimeformUS distribution, qualitative analysis, and the ADW incentive.

The best qualitative analysis boils down to trip and pedigree handicapping in the videos. The news articles are fine for casually keeping up with the game overall and for more track-specific information. I wouldn’t pay book price for Plus/Pro, but happy to go “all in” with the ADW to get that access.

The raw data isn’t much use in the static PPs as opposed to electronic format, and I’m inclined to let someone else crunch that into figs. I don’t use Beyers, except for the rare occasion I glance at the time series line chart in Formulator. I wish TimeformUS did that. I don’t pay for clocker reports but that seems legit.

Formulator is a powerful database, but the interface is way too slow and clunky. I don’t bother since I get enough from PPs and qualitative analysis and it’s just not worth the effort to find some sneaky angle. Make Formulator more usable and that helps a lot.

DRF has gotten into ADW, and promotes that aggressively. DRF Bets won me over with free TFUS, $300 bonus, and “10% takeout” promotion. Kind of disingenuous to limit TFUS PP availability until race day, though. Not sure how much margin it ultimately makes on XpressBet platform, but it’s something, and completes a one-stop-shop portfolio. Probably not feasible to conjure up an in-house ADW.

The user interface on desktop and mobile DRF is generally quick, but primitive, and the shopping cart for PPs is awful. I think I saw somewhere they were about to launch a new shopping center, and they’d better. There’s also lots of re-authenticating and cross logins between separate DRF and DRF Bets accounts they need to rationalize. It’s a real pain that erodes the one-stop proposition.

Also not sure how much DRF gets for distributing TimeformUS, but it promotes those PPs with equal favor as the in-house PPs. I admire DRF for adopting the modern TimeformUS PPs, assuming it can’t quickly rationalize and modernize its own PP data and format. If you can’t beat them, join them.

Surely no one at PaceAdvantage cares about the EasyForm format, but I guess it’s a decent attempt to simplify for new and casual players, and could work as a summary companion to Formulator for more advanced players, but I think it kind of misses those marks. I still like the Ultimate Race Summary in BRIS best for that one-page summary, although it’s never been perfect and is getting still longer in the tooth itself.

Point is, I think DRF deserves some credit for evolving and gets a break for not quickly tossing away legacy aspects of its offering, and hopefully the new owners actually invest in improving the lot, rather than stripping it down and running what’s left of DRF’s favorable legacy into the ground. It’s not like BRIS/Twinspires and TVG can’t possibly exploit that opportunity should it arise.

[PaceAdvantage]

this.

at the tracks I go to almost everyone buys daily racing program.Daily Racing Program is a DRF product...so no matter which print product they are buying, DRF is making coin...like I said, the print editions (either DRF or DRP) aren't going away anytime soon.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Daily Racing Program is a DRF product...so no matter which print product they are buying, DRF is making coin...like I said, the print editions (either DRF or DRP) aren't going away anytime soon.

Last I knew, at AP & HAW, Daily Racing Program was sold on track, but you had to ask for it. The tracks do not display it at their stands, because the tracks own their own print shop, and print off Equibase Track and Simulcast Programs, and sell a lot of those, if they are still giving at least the on-track program away with paid admission.

[DeltaLover]

The DRF still keeps the worthless track variant that they invented 50+ years ago...because they don't want to "alienate their old-fashioned fan-base".

If anything, I find it good for betting purposes as the old fashion track variant should compensate to some degree in crowd's errors. The more errors you can detect in publicly used past performances the better it is for you and the quieter you should remain about them!

[cj]

If anything, I find it good for betting purposes as the old fashion track variant should compensate to some degree in crowd's errors. The more errors you can detect in publicly used past performances the better it is for you and the quieter you should remain about them!

Anyone that was using that as a part of handicapping is probably broke by now.

[DeltaLover]

Anyone that was using that as a part of handicapping is probably broke by now.

:headbanger:

[carterista]

Point is, I think DRF deserves some credit for evolving and gets a break for not quickly tossing away legacy aspects of its offering, and hopefully the new owners actually invest in improving the lot, rather than stripping it down and running what’s left of DRF’s favorable legacy into the ground. It’s not like BRIS/Twinspires and TVG can’t possibly exploit that opportunity should it arise.

DRF doesn't deserve any credit. They're a business out to make money for its owners. The original owners and publication got out of business in 2007. It's successors are getting out now with a loss.

Money is cheap now and there are many vultures(private equity) looking to earn a return. Eventually all racing data will end up with Equibase and whatever services it'll provide.

I give DRF as much 'hope' as give to Sears investors.

[PaceAdvantage]

Eventually all racing data will end up with Equibase and whatever services it'll provide.This was an odd statement to make, considering what happened in the last few years...but I'll just let you continue to make ill-informed comments...carry on.

[Afleet]

Anyone that was using that as a part of handicapping is probably broke by now.

Haven't used it in years, but I had an old computer program that used the DRF variant. I hit some monster bets w/those numbers. It worked best on claimers and tracks w/shippers from multiple different tracks. Lightly raced horses it didn't work on(which is most of today's horse). Friends Lake being one; hit the pick 3 multiple times. I remember it kicked out the winner of the Met Mile right on top at 40-50/1. It was in the slop and everyone I sat with at the track thought I was crazy. I was losing all day and fired the rest of my money in the pick 4. Suffice it to say I missed the pick 4 going 3 for 4 and it paid $300k or something like that. I can't remember for the life of me the name of that horse. This would have been in the 80's or 90's shipper from Woodbine, race was in the slop. I begged my dad to bet him ($2 better), but he wouldn't.

[cj]

Haven't used it in years, but I had an old computer program that used the DRF variant. I hit some monster bets w/those numbers. It worked best on claimers and tracks w/shippers from multiple different tracks. Lightly raced horses it didn't work on(which is most of today's horse). Friends Lake being one; hit the pick 3 multiple times. I remember it kicked out the winner of the Met Mile right on top at 40-50/1. It was in the slop and everyone I sat with at the track thought I was crazy. I was losing all day and fired the rest of my money in the pick 4. Suffice it to say I missed the pick 4 going 3 for 4 and it paid $300k or something like that. I can't remember for the life of me the name of that horse. This would have been in the 80's or 90's shipper from Woodbine, race was in the slop. I begged my dad to bet him ($2 better), but he wouldn't.

That's all well and good, and I remember several programs that used the number. That doesn't make it a good number. You could pull numbers out of a hat have some big scores over the years.

[Afleet]

That's all well and good, and I remember several programs that used the number. That doesn't make it a good number. You could pull numbers out of a hat have some big scores over the years.

With all the drugs, most speed numbers are questionable

[Afleet]

That's all well and good, and I remember several programs that used the number. That doesn't make it a good number. You could pull numbers out of a hat have some big scores over the years.

What do your numbers say about El Deal tomorrow at Saratoga, race 8?

[cj]

What do your numbers say about El Deal tomorrow at Saratoga, race 8?

He looks fastest on paper, but I'll bet against him. One was at Charles Town at 4.5f as you mentioned and the other on a track we have coded bright red---highly speed favoring. I also just don't trust horses like that shipping from smaller circuits to the big leagues. Rules are different and as we learned at Penn, you can get away with stuff some places that you can't at others.

I think, by far, A.P. Indian is the most likely winner.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think DRF classic are the best PP's.

I think CJ makes the best variants in racing.

I think HDW deals best with the LP rating.

I like PP's separated from pace figure so I do separate prints and will always like to do it this way. I like to have figures in Excel so I can have my own rankings developed from those numbers on 1 page.

The DRF distributor in Cincinnati pulled the chord on every outlet but the track. I have acted accordingly by buying a real office printer and am printing my own great personal racing forms.

Wish we could shore up the rest. And I love the work that HDW and CJ does. I'm not bitching but just pointing things out from my perspective as my racing world has been turned upside down this year. I am taking my grandson to the track this summer. This is going to be an ongoing family tradition. Let's find that sweet spot for info in all this boys:ThmbUp:

[menifee]

He looks fastest on paper, but I'll bet against him. One was at Charles Town at 4.5f as you mentioned and the other on a track we have coded bright red---highly speed favoring. I also just don't trust horses like that shipping from smaller circuits to the big leagues. Rules are different and as we learned at Penn, you can get away with stuff some places that you can't at others.

I think, by far, A.P. Indian is the most likely winner.

Navarro vs. class, speed figures and logic. Will the drugs or handicapping win?
A few years back he shipped into Churchill on Derby day and won a bunch. Will be very interesting to see if his Monmouth magic can win at the Spa.

[barn32]

Anyone that was using that as a part of handicapping is probably broke by now.Weren't all the Sartin guys using it back in the day?

[classhandicapper]

He looks fastest on paper, but I'll bet against him. One was at Charles Town at 4.5f as you mentioned and the other on a track we have coded bright red---highly speed favoring. I also just don't trust horses like that shipping from smaller circuits to the big leagues. Rules are different and as we learned at Penn, you can get away with stuff some places that you can't at others.



I have similar notes.

There's a horse coming off that MTH track running in the 2nd race today at Saratoga (Right Ben). We can see how he does for some insight.

[ubercapper]

He looks fastest on paper, but I'll bet against him. One was at Charles Town at 4.5f as you mentioned and the other on a track we have coded bright red---highly speed favoring. I also just don't trust horses like that shipping from smaller circuits to the big leagues. Rules are different and as we learned at Penn, you can get away with stuff some places that you can't at others.

I think, by far, A.P. Indian is the most likely winner.


I think he's the next coming of Private Zone (also trained by Navarro) for whatever that's worth.

[cj]

I think he's the next coming of Private Zone (also trained by Navarro) for whatever that's worth.

Pretty sure Navarro got him after Private Zone was pretty well established already.

[cj]

Pretty sure Navarro got him after Private Zone was pretty well established already.

He was with Doug O'Neil for quite a while, including winning the Vosburgh and a second in the Cigar Mile. He then moved to Alfredo Velazquez. I'll admit I have no idea who that is. He also won the Cigar Mile with him.

After that, he moved to Navarro and won the Churchill Downs Handicap, the Belmont Sprint Championship Stakes, and the Forego. He capped the year with a second in the BC Sprint.

His final two starts were with Bryan Lynch and he was off the board in both.

My point is he was already a G1 winner before Navarro took over. He wasn't one of Jorge's alchemy projects.

[Tom]

Weren't all the Sartin guys using it back in the day?

That was all we had other than a meridian variant.

[JohnGalt1]

DRF being sold has allowed many here to suggest changes to the pp's.

Getting rid of track variants is one suggestion made by some because it is worthless in their opinion.

Don't you want your betting competitors using bogus stats and worthless information?

I do.

I love to see my competitors at the track buy their form at the track and speed handicap before each race.

I want my competitors to use astrology, selections from newspapers and websites, and information I find useless in the pp's.

I want my competitors to not use class or form, (betting layoff horses with no workouts,) and to use the wrong pace line, and if they do use the track variant, to misuse it by not making the necessary adjustments to it.

I use the DRF variant to make my pace and speed figures--by mine I mean Hambleton figs from Satin's book.

They even work on synthetic surfaces. I played the 7/24 card at Presque Isle, a track I seldom play because of takeout, and made a profit of $500 winning 4 pick 4's.

I don't use variants for turf races, unless the turf course was off, or Gulfstream where the variant lets me know how far the rails are out.

I print my pp's from Bris using the pp generator, which allows me to transform the form the way I want. I eliminate the categories that are useless TO ME.

I used to make my lay off line 21 days, but because horse don't race as often, my lay off line is 28 days.

I don't print the Bris speed figure, and if I used DRF I would not use Beyer numbers.

I print the DSR speed and variant and purse value.

I don't print the company line, because to me it's worthless.

If you believe the variant is worthless, don't you want me and everybody else that uses it TO KEEP USING IT?

As far as I'm concerned the Beyer and Bris speed numbers, and the company lines could be eliminated from the DRF.

But, I don't want that. I want my competitors to use them. If they get value from the data I don't use, and I get value from the variant and other data I use, good for us.

I'm not going to write one or two examples of big hits I've had, and if a turf race was a big hit, the pace figures I made were done without track variants.

I will say that the third of my handicapping process that is pace figures has allowed me to win 10 pick sixes.

[Tom]

I print my pp's from Bris using the pp generator, which allows me to transform the form the way I want. I eliminate the categories that are useless TO ME.

The best part of BRIS is the PP Generator. I print out with no time, just the E2,LP numbers so I can use Pandy's new method and leave space to write in CJ's PF numbers. On the condensed format.

[BMustang]

OK, I'll fess up, I use the track variant figure with regularity in my handicapping.

I play primarily cheaper tracks, and when I see a horse run in a 6f race that goes in 1:14 I immediately consult the variant figure to determine it if was a race with slow horses, or a race conducted on a "heavy" race track.

Some of the wintertime variant figures at Mahoning Valley (OH) are ridiculously high, as are the race times. They at least provide me with some semblance of just how slow the track was that the slow times are run on.

Also if a horse is running in a 20k optional claimer and his opponents are doing it in races going in 1:10 and he has most recently been beaten in a race going in 1:12, I will immediately glance at the variant figure to see if he had an excuse or not. I still tend to add the Speed Fig with the Track Variant is see if a horse is in the same class as his competition.

Point out the error of my ways! Am I supposed to simply rely on raw Beyer Speed Figures????? At cheaper tracks they are inconsistent at best.

Tell me where I am going wrong. At 70 I'm still not too old to learn, or am I beyond hope???

[thaskalos]

OK, I'll fess up, I use the track variant figure with regularity in my handicapping.

I play primarily cheaper tracks, and when I see a horse run in a 6f race that goes in 1:14 I immediately consult the variant figure to determine it if was a race with slow horses, or a race conducted on a "heavy" race track.

Some of the wintertime variant figures at Mahoning Valley (OH) are ridiculously high, as are the race times. They at least provide me with some semblance of just how slow the track was that the slow times are run on.

Also if a horse is running in a 20k optional claimer and his opponents are doing it in races going in 1:10 and he has most recently been beaten in a race going in 1:12, I will immediately glance at the variant figure to see if he had an excuse or not. I still tend to add the Speed Fig with the Track Variant is see if a horse is in the same class as his competition.

Point out the error of my ways! Am I supposed to simply rely on raw Beyer Speed Figures????? At cheaper tracks they are inconsistent at best.

Tell me where I am going wrong. At 70 I'm still not too old to learn, or am I beyond hope???

Here's what I think you should do, if you insist on using the DRF track variant:

Use the variant in its entirety only if it's up to 20...and, when the variant is over 20...divide the difference by 2. Consequently...a variant of 24 becomes a 22...and a variant of 28 becomes a 24. Also, when you are adding the speed rating and the variant together...you need to make an adjustment to the SPEED RATING, when the race is a short sprint. If a 5.5 furlong race has a speed rating of 80...reduce it by 5 to a 75. And, if a 5 furlong race is an 80...then reduce it by 10 to a 70. Otherwise...the short sprints won't compare well to the longer sprints of 6, 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

[Afleet]

I think he's the next coming of Private Zone (also trained by Navarro) for whatever that's worth.
good call

[JohnGalt1]

Here's what I think you should do, if you insist on using the DRF track variant:

Use the variant in its entirety only if it's up to 20...and, when the variant is over 20...divide the difference by 2. Consequently...a variant of 24 becomes a 22...and a variant of 28 becomes a 24. Also, when you are adding the speed rating and the variant together...you need to make an adjustment to the SPEED RATING, when the race is a short sprint. If a 5.5 furlong race has a speed rating of 80...reduce it by 5 to a 75. And, if a 5 furlong race is an 80...then reduce it by 10 to a 70. Otherwise...the short sprints won't compare well to the longer sprints of 6, 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

That's similar to how I use the variant.

William L. Scott made a chart how he modifies it.

I rate dirt/synthetic variants of 16-18 as neutral. Above 18, I adjust one for two. 19 and 20 subtract won tick. 29-30 subtract 6 ticks.

Low variants I adjust one for 2 until variant is 3. 4-5 I add 6 ticks, variant of 3 add 7 ticks, 2, add 8 ticks to Total Pace Rating.

If I see a very large or very low I prefer to not use the race and will find one within range. A lightly raced horse, or a horse with only a few at todays distance might force me to use a pace line with a high or low variant.

Another way I use DRF variants is when I buy the Cynthia Pars. They print an average variant for sprint and routes. I adjust the ratings I use by the variant for my track to track comparison chart.

Example--CD 6f $10k claimers run 1:10.1 with a fast track variant of 12 so I rate it 1:10.3 or 87 on my comparison chart.

Ellis Park 10k is 1:09.4 with a variant of 5 or 1:11.0 or 90 on my chart.

Parx is 1:11.2 with 26 variant or 1:10.3.

Then when I rate the horse I will adjust with the variant for that day.

[thespaah]

Daily Racing Program is a DRF product...so no matter which print product they are buying, DRF is making coin...like I said, the print editions (either DRF or DRP) aren't going away anytime soon.

Perhaps.
However, as sales slide, adjustments will have to be made

[ubercapper]

good call

Thanks. To CJ's point, he wasn't one of Navarro's turnarounds to be sure so I guess I could have been clearer in that he might be the next coming of Private Zone in terms of winning a bunch of graded stakes in powerful fashion, although I didn't imagine an 8 length win.

[dilanesp]

That's similar to how I use the variant.

William L. Scott made a chart how he modifies it.

I rate dirt/synthetic variants of 16-18 as neutral. Above 18, I adjust one for two. 19 and 20 subtract won tick. 29-30 subtract 6 ticks.

Low variants I adjust one for 2 until variant is 3. 4-5 I add 6 ticks, variant of 3 add 7 ticks, 2, add 8 ticks to Total Pace Rating.

If I see a very large or very low I prefer to not use the race and will find one within range. A lightly raced horse, or a horse with only a few at todays distance might force me to use a pace line with a high or low variant.

Another way I use DRF variants is when I buy the Cynthia Pars. They print an average variant for sprint and routes. I adjust the ratings I use by the variant for my track to track comparison chart.

Example--CD 6f $10k claimers run 1:10.1 with a fast track variant of 12 so I rate it 1:10.3 or 87 on my comparison chart.

Ellis Park 10k is 1:09.4 with a variant of 5 or 1:11.0 or 90 on my chart.

Parx is 1:11.2 with 26 variant or 1:10.3.

Then when I rate the horse I will adjust with the variant for that day.

Garbage in garbage out IMO. The Racing Form variant measures nothing. It is like a postulate as to how many angels dance on the head of a pin.

So you can't "adjust" it to measure something it doesn't measure.

This is exactly what led me to speed figures in the 1980's. The fundamental insight, which Beyer credits to Sheldon Kovitz but I am sure goes back to the 1930's at least, is that you have to measure track speed based on what horses are expected to run, not based on track records. Every speed figure system is based on this principle in one form or another and you literally can't measure horses' speed without it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Different owner for awhile now, and same horrible checkout process. It's as if they don't want customers to buy PPs at the site.

[chiguy]

I could see the new owners including or creating additional content for sports betting. Don't forget that in game betting is going to become huge and having a database of information regarding situational hitting and pitching in baseball for example might be worth something. What does Jon Lester throw on the first pitch to a right handed batter with men on first and third when he has already thrown between 65-75 pitches?

[cj]

Different owner for awhile now, and same horrible checkout process. It's as if they don't want customers to buy PPs at the site.

I predict things will get better and soon. The new CEO has only been in place a very short time.

[Franco Santiago]

Shown 'Z' door?

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

Good one.

[Tom]

Different owner for awhile now, and same horrible checkout process. It's as if they don't want customers to buy PPs at the site.

And the damn pages keep changing so once you figure out a way to check out, it goes away. To get to my DRF+, I have to log in 2-3 times. At least 2. Now, the log in option at the top is replaced with a cart.

I have had people who hate my guys treat me better than those inept clowns at DRF.

Thanks GOD for Lonnie - without him, they would never sell dollar #1.

[dilanesp]

[deleted]

[Saratoga_Mike]

And the damn pages keep changing so once you figure out a way to check out, it goes away. To get to my DRF+, I have to log in 2-3 times. At least 2. Now, the log in option at the top is replaced with a cart.

I have had people who hate my guys treat me better than those inept clowns at DRF.

Thanks GOD for Lonnie - without him, they would never sell dollar #1.

I'm usually the one saying racing fans whine too much, but I literally could not buy the PPs yesterday. This has been an issue for years now. Could the checkout process be any worse? I wish TimeFormUS had stayed completely independent of DRF. I haven't followed it closely, but there's obviously some type of alliance between the two. With digital PPs, DRF's distribution advantage had disappeared, and TFUS was/(is?) a real threat. Wait, they don't even sell hard copies at CD (is that still the case?) anyway.

[Tom]

Mike - you can still EASILY buy TFUS PPs at the timeform website.
I always buy them there - give the credit where it belongs.

[fight]

where in any hdw program do you see lp? iam confused help ty

[Dave Schwartz]

where in any hdw program do you see lp? iam confused help ty

My software, The HorseStreet Handicapper (HSH) (http://store.pacemakestherace.com/horsestreet-handicapper/) has "Late Pace." It is derived from multiple call factors.

It represents the last 3 fractions in a race. That is, in a 6f race it begins at 2f and ends at the finish.

However, you MIGHT be speaking of what we call "SR" or "Stretch Run." Again, a derivative, it begins at the EP call and goes to the finish. HDW does not have such a rating natively.


We have a bunch more pace factors as well.

In total, there are over 4,000 factors for each horse.

[fight]

ty dave this was for cinnhorseplayer sorry forgot to type his name

[Inner Dirt]

Is DRF forcing you to sign in just to look at a race chart? Then when you sign in the purchase product page shows up? Is it me and my often annoying satellite internet causing website issues or are they doing that to everyone now? I have taken a long break from betting and following horse racing and just started following it again a month ago.

[GMB@BP]

Is DRF forcing you to sign in just to look at a race chart?

they started that 20 years ago.