Arrogate Over/Under Show Pool

[jocko699]

I say $850,000

[lamboguy]

i don't know how much they gonna bet on Baffert, but they should bet pretty good on SINORITA in the mule race @ Sacramento.

[jimmyb]

7 figures

[lamboguy]

the mule had less than a quarter of a million on it, kinda light for that one. people must be getting ready for Del Mar.

[maliksealy210]

the mule had less than a quarter of a million on it, kinda light for that one. people must be getting ready for Del Mar.

2013, 15 and 16 World Champion -- such an impressive Mule

[olddaddy]

I dont care much of the dollar amount but wonder what the % amount will be. 96%?

Well I have to have interest in the race so Ill deuce the other 4 to show just in case something happens.

[Mulerider]

The mule is pretty interesting. She had surgery to remove bone chips in both fetlock joints in 2014, took off only a few weeks, and keeps getting faster. She was the first mule to have an undefeated season. She's won two consecutive World Championships, three overall.

It also occurs to me since this is a thread about Arrogate, this might be the most egregious example of thread drift ever. :lol:

[maliksealy210]

Best horse and best mule? I think it makes sense. Also the two biggest show pools of the day - Lady Eli isn't getting any jumper action at the moment

[Andy Asaro]

3.5 million

[dilanesp]

The mule is pretty interesting. She had surgery to remove bone chips in both fetlock joints in 2014, took off only a few weeks, and keeps getting faster. She was the first mule to have an undefeated season. She's won two consecutive World Championships, three overall.

It also occurs to me since this is a thread about Arrogate, this might be the most egregious example of thread drift ever. :lol:

Mule racing is a lot of fun. When Black Ruby was around, it even became a thing at major tracks for a little while.

[dilanesp]

$250,000 on the first click of the board.

[Andy Asaro]

Think I'm gonna be a little off. Surprised that there isn't a lot more.

[dilanesp]

$977k right now.

[luisbe]

96% of the place pool. Who is risking money to win the same percentage than show pool?

[Tom]

Mike Smith could make a fortune tonight......

[luisbe]

Mike Smith could make a fortune tonight......

Only by falling.

[dilanesp]

96% of the place pool. Who is risking money to win the same percentage than show pool?

That's like when they sell an exacta in a match race at a higher takeout.

[luisbe]

Mike did it!!!

[RunForTheRoses]

WOW!

[jocko699]

Mike Smith could make a fortune tonight......

OMG

[elhelmete]

Holy crap

[jimmyb]

Holy Bridgejumper!!!

[WoxFan]

Wow...

[dilanesp]

$1,320,000 just burned up.

[Andy Asaro]

Unbelievable. The Dubai Bounce strikes Dubai Bob with Charlie Rose sitting in the box.

[WoxFan]

About 1.6mil to show on arrogate.

[WoxFan]

Sorry, that might be 1.6 in canadian.

[dilanesp]

You run them enough they get beat.

[luisbe]

About 1.6mil to show on arrogate.

Over 900K in place pool as well.

[dilanesp]

Over 900K in place pool as well.

Place horse paid over $100 to place.

[maliksealy210]

I jumped for $50 on Accelerate --- $550 is not too shabby.

Arrogate seems ok, and I hope he is - still the best in the world.

[stlseeeek]

lol

Del Mar knew horse wasn't ready, which is why they took the action. Baffert even claimed he wasn't cranked up.

Bettors got bent


Look at those horrible show payoffs

[zico20]

Silver Charm part two. The exact same pattern with Baffert. Silver Charm ran last in a five horse field in the San Diego as a huge favorite.

[Fager Fan]

lol

Del Mar knew horse wasn't ready, which is why they took the action. Baffert even claimed he wasn't cranked up.

Bettors got bent


Look at those horrible show payoffs

Baffert didn't lead the horse over there thinking he wasn't ready for that group. That's crazy.

[castaway01]

lol

Del Mar knew horse wasn't ready, which is why they took the action. Baffert even claimed he wasn't cranked up.

Bettors got bent


Look at those horrible show payoffs

Yeah, I saw people being marched to the windows at gunpoint to throw money at Arrogate. Poor bettors.

[airford1]

F/N hilarious. Too many races are not worth a wager . We see 7500 claimers with a 3/5 betting favorite. The game really is hurting.

[WINMANWIN]

Comical as Smith never tried 8 lenghts back at start. Never wanted to hit board. Funny how tvg interviewed jocks. Espinoza said he was gonna WIN RACE. I shoulda listened. But got Redemption, I Nailed Super in last, As I'm saying T Baze always Rides ACCELERATE. Now hes off horse. Shades on today. No issue Tyler. We Will let you Win the Finale. Guessed right. Banged Super. Guessed right at Toga in Last Also. Leparoux rides 11 for a Win last out Horse Was favorite in Multi Bets, Julian Jumps OFF and Rode the 4 Wire to Wire in a FIXED BOAT RACE. Lmao. Not one of these Jocks would Ever Ever PASS A POLY GRAPH.
Ha, Imagine if I Didn't hit BIG TODAY ����������������������✊✊�������������������� ����

[jms62]

Comical as Smith never tried 8 lenghts back at start. Never wanted to hit board. Funny how tvg interviewed jocks. Espinoza said he was gonna WIN RACE. I shoulda listened. But got redemption nailer super in last, As I'm saying T Baze always Rides ACCELERATE. now he off horse. Shades on today. No issue Tyler. We Will let you Win the Finale. Guessed right. Banged super. Guessed right at toga in Last also. Leparoux rides 11 for a Win last out. Jumps off and Rode the 4 wire to wire in a FIXED BOAT RACE. Lmao. Not one of these Jocks would ever ever PASS A POLY GRAPH.
Ha, Imagine if I Didn't hit BIG TODAY 😵😠😠😠😠😠😈😈😈😈😈✊✊👊👊🤜🤜🤜🤚🤚🤚👏👏👏👏

Can you translate this into English please?

[thaskalos]

Comical as Smith never tried 8 lenghts back at start. Never wanted to hit board. Funny how tvg interviewed jocks. Espinoza said he was gonna WIN RACE. I shoulda listened. But got redemption nailer super in last, As I'm saying T Baze always Rides ACCELERATE. now he off horse. Shades on today. No issue Tyler. We Will let you Win the Finale. Guessed right. Banged super. Guessed right at toga in Last also. Leparoux rides 11 for a Win last out. Jumps off and Rode the 4 wire to wire in a FIXED BOAT RACE. Lmao. Not one of these Jocks would ever ever PASS A POLY GRAPH.
Ha, Imagine if I Didn't hit BIG TODAY 😵😠😠😠😠😠😈😈😈😈😈✊✊👊👊🤜🤜🤜🤚🤚🤚👏👏👏👏

I've always said that the New Yorkers are the sharpest handicappers out there! :ThmbUp:

[WINMANWIN]

Can you translate this into English please?

Surely, Game sucks, Always Will. Made a big SCORE TODAY ! but can't say I'm a Big Winner past 45 Year's. LOST PLENTY MORE THAN I WON.

[salty]

Can you translate this into English please?

Yeah its simple, the track told them that they cant hit the board with Arrogate, they wanted to make a killing on the betting so they probably give them a few favors and a bonus check after. :rolleyes:

Why would they take show betting on a 5 horse race with the best horse in the world in it if they didn't have a plan?

The jock losing the irons was comical as hell in the circus act that the race was. Could have even been a planned distraction.

And then Toga wants a pick 6 carryover to Sunday so they give it to the 4. Its so fin ridiculous. Magically the Ortiz brothers are on 2 capable horses but dont even show after they put away 7 races today?.....you get it? get it its fixed you see?

Good, throw out that form its useless.

:puke:

This time of the year is money making time for the tracks, they have to cram all the money making possibilities into this 1 and a half months. DONT EVER FORGET THAT.

By the way:
Saratoga race 2 :6: tomorrow, its already official

[Fager Fan]

I thought I detected sarcasm at first, but by the time I got to the comical iron-less jockey, I wasn't sure.

[ReplayRandall]

Some of PA's finest posting found right here in this thread....:pound:Def comedy jam material for the whole family....:pound:comic geniuses dissin' the Sport of Kings. It just doesn't get any better than this, does it?? :blush:

No Cover charge, free for all, if you know what I mean...:rolleyes:

[cj]

Even when I do something right I get it wrong...Donworth to show.

[Ruffian1]

Oh my !

[Si2see]

Even when I do something right I get it wrong...Donworth to show.

Same. I've actually had $100 bill stashed away in my wallet for a long time ready to put on Donworth to win first time Mario Gutierrez wasn't in the irons. Still hasn't happened.

[porchy44]

About 1.6mil to show on arrogate.

Isn't that one of racing's ten commandments ?

"Never bet alot to win a little".

[Track Phantom]

Isn't that one of racing's ten commandments ?

"Never bet alot to win a little".
Unless you're this clown. https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/7/21/curious-case-arrogate-overlay-1-20

[Track Phantom]

Unless you're this clown. https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/7/21/curious-case-arrogate-overlay-1-20
This comment in his article is why it is good that this game is parimutuel...

" ...it's easy to see that one should wager on a 1-to-20 shot with a 96% chance of success. In fact, such a scenario is an even better edge than a horse who has a 50% chance of winning who is 7-to-5 in the betting or even a horse who's 8-to-1 with a 25% chance of winning".

[Track Phantom]

In my opinion, this game is about "mining for gold" not "piddling for pennies"

[CincyHorseplayer]

In my opinion, this game is about "mining for gold" not "piddling for pennies"

Right. Can we take a poll? What % of players out there even bet a race like this? Even over the course of my 21 betting years I know I am topping out at 10% at very best. They require no handicapping effort whatsoever. Legitimate favorite and short field=next. Every great once in a while a feel a legit bet against vs a solid stakes horse. Not much though. Now I'm with Replay Randall. I like just watching people come unglued about everything surrounding these type of horses. The mania is comic relief during these dog days!:)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Some of PA's finest posting found right here in this thread....:pound:Def comedy jam material for the whole family....:pound:comic geniuses dissin' the Sport of Kings. It just doesn't get any better than this, does it?? :blush:

No Cover charge, free for all, if you know what I mean...:rolleyes:

Fantastic interpretation. Love it too brother!:D

[lamboguy]

no doubt. AROGATE is probably the fastest horse above ground these days, but racing requires more than just being fast against the clock.

we all thought he is the greatest after spotting the field 10 lengths in Dubai. when you look at that race you will find that he was under no pressure at all, he simply and effortlessly swooped the field and beat the horses that did the heavy lifting for him with his god given talent of speed. put that horse under pressure and you see something different. it happens every day in all different walks of life.

[onefast99]

no doubt. AROGATE is probably the fastest horse above ground these days, but racing requires more than just being fast against the clock.

we all thought he is the greatest after spotting the field 10 lengths in Dubai. when you look at that race you will find that he was under no pressure at all, he simply and effortlessly swooped the field and beat the horses that did the heavy lifting for him with his god given talent of speed. put that horse under pressure and you see something different. it happens every day in all different walks of life.
0/2 at Del Mar it is evident he doesn't like the track.

[SharpCat]

0/2 at Del Mar it is evident he doesn't like the track.

You possibly could have been correct if he was 0/2 Del Mar but he is 1/2. Not sure how you missed it but you did. His other loss was at Los Alamitos after blowing the break.

[onefast99]

You possibly could have been correct if he was 0/2 Del Mar but he is 1/2. Not sure how you missed it but you did. His other loss was at Los Alamitos after blowing the break.Thanks for the correction...

[AndyC]

......we all thought he is the greatest after spotting the field 10 lengths in Dubai. when you look at that race you will find that he was under no pressure at all, he simply and effortlessly swooped the field and beat the horses that did the heavy lifting for him with his god given talent of speed. put that horse under pressure and you see something different. it happens every day in all different walks of life.

How do you put a closer "under pressure"? If you are suggesting that Arrogate lost because he was put under pressure then I would would disagree.

[AltonKelsey]

no doubt. AROGATE is probably the fastest horse above ground these days, but racing requires more than just being fast against the clock.

we all thought he is the greatest after spotting the field 10 lengths in Dubai. when you look at that race you will find that he was under no pressure at all, he simply and effortlessly swooped the field and beat the horses that did the heavy lifting for him with his god given talent of speed. put that horse under pressure and you see something different. it happens every day in all different walks of life.

So this is why Arrogate failed to fire at all at DMR?

The pressure?

:pound:

[AltonKelsey]

There's no mystery here. Any horse at any time can come up wrong. Most of the time the trainer can spot it and either not enter or scratch.

For some reason Baffert couldn't read what the problem was or misread any signs there were.

That race has nothing to do with any previous efforts, its an outlier .

[AltonKelsey]

This comment in his article is why it is good that this game is parimutuel...

" ...it's easy to see that one should wager on a 1-to-20 shot with a 96% chance of success. In fact, such a scenario is an even better edge than a horse who has a 50% chance of winning who is 7-to-5 in the betting or even a horse who's 8-to-1 with a 25% chance of winning".

Even without the link, I could have told you who it was.

I think even Byk can't wait to get him off the air. They must pay for the time.


PS I think Kelly died broke. Bet his bankroll on one sure thing too many.

[Franco Santiago]

His error is not in his betting theory, it's in his handicapping. Arrogate would not win 96 out of 100 races in this exact same scenario. At BEST, 85%, but that number is very dubious IMHO, because you can't get that exact with horses.

His software probably overestimates favorites' chances of winning.

Also, "Pushing thin edges" is ridiculous. There are no thin edges in horse racing.

[dilanesp]

no doubt. AROGATE is probably the fastest horse above ground these days, but racing requires more than just being fast against the clock.

we all thought he is the greatest after spotting the field 10 lengths in Dubai. when you look at that race you will find that he was under no pressure at all, he simply and effortlessly swooped the field and beat the horses that did the heavy lifting for him with his god given talent of speed. put that horse under pressure and you see something different. it happens every day in all different walks of life.

I think he had a bad trip in Dubai.

I will say this- there was some overstatement about HOW bad his trip was. A bad start isn't great, especially for a horse with speed, but it also isn't the end of the world in a 1 1/4 mile race with a tractable horse. A horse has a lot of racetrack left to get back into the race, and we've seen good horses recover from bad starts in long races all the time. (E.g., Seattle Slew's Derby for a famous example.)

[cj]

His error is not in his betting theory, it's in his handicapping. Arrogate would not win 96 out of 100 races in this exact same scenario. At BEST, 85%, but that number is very dubious IMHO, because you can't get that exact with horses.

His software probably overestimates favorites' chances of winning.

Also, "Pushing thin edges" is ridiculous. There are no thin edges in horse racing.

He was probably saying 96% to show, since there is no reason to bet the horse to win at the same payoff as you'll get to show.

[Track Phantom]

Even without the link, I could have told you who it was.

I think even Byk can't wait to get him off the air. They must pay for the time.


PS I think Kelly died broke. Bet his bankroll on one sure thing too many.
There are people in high profile, or at least highly visible, spots in this industry that I cannot believe utter a single opinion. I don't begrudge someone for having a contrarian position but this is completely counter to common sense. If there are people who invested based on this advice they got what they deserved.

[dilanesp]

Even without the link, I could have told you who it was.

I think even Byk can't wait to get him off the air. They must pay for the time.


PS I think Kelly died broke. Bet his bankroll on one sure thing too many.

I don't know about dying broke, but the Kelly criterion, while true as a mathematical postulate, is a very dangerous thing for most gamblers to believe, because it's actually very hard to know the numbers necessary to use it. I'm not a fan.

[Andy Asaro]

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/horse-racing/sd-sp-del-mar-evin-roman-20170727-story.html

Excerpt:

Maybe you could call it the “60 Minutes” jinx: Journalist Charlie Rose, who was here working on a profile of Arrogate for the popular television news program here last weekend, told “The Late Show” host Stephen Colbert on Tuesday night: “I bet a lot of money on him, and I lost a lot of money.” He certainly wasn’t the only one disappointed when the world’s No. 1-ranked horse, at 1-20 odds, finished a shocking fourth in the San Diego Handicap.

He was sitting in Bafferts Box with Cameras. LOL