Handicapping 'Specialists'

[sq764]

What does everyone think about handicapping specialists? Those who only handicap turf races, or only maiden races, or only 6 furlong races? I see the positive, that they become experts at what they do, but on the flip side, don't they miss out on a lot of other opportunities, as well as limit themselves to a smaller window of opportunity to wager?

Just a thought


Scott

[cj]

The bottom line is, do you make money. It doesn't matter how you do it. Anyone who shows a profit in a game with an approximately 20% takeout is doing things right!

CJ

[GameTheory]

I think specializing is absolutely the way to go. Not four days after you learn the game, but once you've been around a while -- gravitate to your strength and focus.

*After* you've become an expert in that, then continue on handicapping those races, and learn other types too. So you can become more general incrementally. I mean all this in a general sense -- not just types of races, but ways of betting, approachs to handicapping, etc. Becoming really good at one thing also shows you just how different those other races (and tracks) really are.

Of course, if you already are making money, then just do what you're doing...

[so.cal.fan]

As a specialist handicapper, myself, of course I believe being one.
I think you become more proficient, and increase your ROI.
That being said........the biggest winner I know in So. Calif. bets every race.
He rolls triples. He has a fantastic memory, and can recall races run years ago in detail. He has a sixth sense about each different type of race, and makes his decisions accordingly. He knows the trainers well and all their habits.
He watches horses in the paddock every race. He uses the tape machines at the track to review tapes of contenders. In other words, the guy works very hard.
Another man I know, makes good profits by betting maidens. He is a confirmation expert and bets only sprints. He is very good at what he does.
I think it is a matter of temperment. You know what you are comfortable with, and no one else can or should influence you.

[smf]

Scott,

I think it's a great way to go :)

I always thought if anyone had access to nyra replayed races daily and access to live video and applied him/ herself in other areas of turf capping, (ie trainer patterns, pedigree info pertinent to nyra turf) and simply specialized in grass races for msw, n1x, 3yo restricted races, they c/ earn a decent living doing do.

Nyra has some great turf racing for ~ 6 months a year. I don't know if anyone c/do this anywhere else right now, tho. Nyra offers a great 3yo turf program.

Used to be you c/ make a killing here on grass, too. The first signer I ever had was a Cole Norman turfer over Budge, Asmussen (then, top grass trainers here). Paid over 2k. Two weeks later I hit Asmussen over Petalino, over the lone speed for 3k+. It went on like that for 3 years at LS. Unfortuantely those days of inflated payouts are long gone here.

The possibilities are endless on areas of "specialization". You begin w/ a head start on the crowd doing so, imo.

[Tom]

With so many races available every day, it canr eally pay to specialize. You can find 20-30 maiden claimers a day easily if you want to follow them. Or follow the nation's 3yos through the whole year, then switch over to the 2yos in the faqll and follow them thorugh the next summer. The physical boundries of a race traack no longer confine the days action to th whims of track secretary or the limitations of a low purse structure. Racing is "going global" and the indicidual track is no longer important.
when you specialize, you can really get tuned in to a subset of races. Years a go, we were limited to a couple of stakes races a week if we were lucky or even a couple a month at lesser tracks. Now, you find a dozen stakes, including a few graded, on any given weekend most of the year. We now have choices, and that is makes racing all the better.

Tom

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Tom
Racing is "going global" and the indicidual track is no longer important.
Tom

This sounds great in theory, but I haven't been able to do it in application. The tracks that I play seriously are Southern California and Hastings (my nearest track), and occasionally New York. I would love to be able to just bet all 6f sprints in North America, but I can't imagine how I could have the research time to know all the racetracks. I have a pretty good knowledge of the trainers, track biases, etc. from the tracks that I do bet seriously, but if I added Churchill, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Turf Paradise, etc. I would have no time to bet because I would be spending too much time trying to figure out the nuances of each track. I couldn't imagine putting $100 to win on a horse without more complete information, not to mention the stress of trying to bounce between racetracks every 3 minutes. I just focus on 2 tracks every day I bet. All my mind can handle.

Although I'm probably quoting you out of context, Tom, but I believe the individual track is vital - know the trainers, know the biases, know the jockeys, make trip notes, daily variants. But that might just be for my style of handicapping. Those of you that can do all those tracks, my hat's off to you!

AD

[ridersup]

Anotherdave:

Sounds like you are a specialist in Souther Cal and Hastings.
To me that is the way to go. I personnaly keep my own track variants, adjust par times annually, make my own pace ratings, follow trainer patterns and keep track of key races at one track at a time. After my local track(Tampa) ends their meet I will switch to Churchill Downs and apply the same procedures there.

I occasionally bet another track but without my own info I feel very uneasy about doing so and I would not make a serious bet at a track I don't feel comfortable with.


Ridersup

[JimG]

In case you haven't noticed Bris has custom past performances and All-Ways files that allow you to download only races that pertain to your specialty at www.brisnet.com for all tracks running on a particular date.

Thought it may be helpful.

Jim