PDA

View Full Version : R8 Del Mar $100K Oceanside


Lemon Drop Husker
07-19-2017, 01:34 AM
The first real race at Del Mar.

$100K at stake, but very much more. This at least G3 if not G2 level competition.

:1: Arms Runner: 2 for 2 and taking a natural step up to the next level. This $525K purchase has to be respected.

:2: Bird is the Word: Getting into some recent solid form. Overbet? Likely. Can he step up to this class and really contend?

:3: Vending Machine: Really tough read. Bejarano excited about mounts this meet.

:4: Bowies Hero: Phil obviously likes this colt. The Artie Schiller at a straight Mile could be his calling, and connections have fired as much.

:5: Pioneer Lad: Supposedly outclassed, but this is an improving sort heading into its 5th lifetime race. Fired a bullet, Baze in line.

:6: Rockin Rudy: Gets back to turf where he likes to run. Big odds for a turf horse that could wire the field.

:7: Allaboutmike: Only real question is if he can get a mile.

:8: Lucky Bode: Just broke his maiden. Could he possibly beat a field like this?

:9: Placido: Will be overbet.

:10: Grecian Fire: Could limp in to exotics.

:11: Caribou Club: Real contender to win

:12: In hist 11th race, he just broke his Maiden in the States. Pass.

:13: Monster Man: Rabbit

:14: May Man Chuckles: Have to include in exotics. MUST include

:15: Harbour Master: Pass

Robert Fischer
07-19-2017, 07:00 PM
:1: Arms Runner = very interesting. Potential to be a graded stakes horse.

:4: Bowies Hero = I don't know enough about this guy. A superficial look is telling me that he's overrated. He seems like a solid horse who needs the class or the race flow to come to him. I could certainly be wrong, and be missing some hidden qualities. D'Amato is a good trainer.
From my limited info, I'd try to beat the :4: - if the ML is accurate.
If Arms Runner is 8/5 and Bowies Hero is 4-1, that's a completely different scenario.

.
.
.
.

:6: Rockin Rudy seems sneaky dangerous. I'm not a big fan of the 'back to what he does best' angle, but they got a little bit 'creative' with this guy, shipping around (including G1 Ark. Derby), while switching to dirt.


other thoughts random or fandom in nature:

wow! Gary Stevens is having a nice year on the numbers. Still riding that good?
The :2: has consistently taken money. If Bowies Hero is in fact flow-dependent, those same flows are going to include decent efforts from the :2:.

Maryland based :11: Caribou Club might be OK. Seems to be mildly improving, and that Yoshida/Pimlico race was kind of oddly run/ soft ground. Not sure if fast enough, but the price will probably be big.

:16: Harbour Master is interesting. He took money in the BC juvy turf sprint (256 days ago, last raced BCJuvTSprnt). I have no idea if he can run, but he hasn't proved to us that he can't run, and the price looks to be big.

Ocala Mike
07-19-2017, 07:04 PM
:11: definitely bears watching in here; Proctor shipping always dangerous.

letswastemoney
07-19-2017, 08:48 PM
Arms Runner will probably be overbet, but I think he'll win. I also think he might go on to be a graded stakes horse. We'll see.

jocko699
07-19-2017, 09:05 PM
:11: definitely bears watching in here; Proctor shipping always dangerous.

Huge fan of Proctor but I think his horses may need a race.

GMB@BP
07-20-2017, 03:13 AM
Arms Runner will probably be overbet, but I think he'll win. I also think he might go on to be a graded stakes horse. We'll see.

I know this is hindsight but its just a typical bet against for me, wins at different types of races (routes-sprints) and now takes on stakes. I have no idea why he was 8/5 as the field had many viable options.

Robert Fischer
07-20-2017, 11:16 AM
Bowies Hero was much the best.
Paid a generous $8.80, and ran like a $4.00 horse.
Hindsight can be a bitch. :coffee:

A serious player should have been able to adapt to the public going overboard on Arms Runner. I didn't play, was making a serious stroganoff.

I wasn't able to see his quality from a superficial look, but I was wary of his quality, and I was also wary of Arms Runner being underlayed.

:1: Arms Runner = very interesting. Potential to be a graded stakes horse.

:4: Bowies Hero = I don't know enough about this guy. A superficial look is telling me that he's overrated. He seems like a solid horse who needs the class or the race flow to come to him. I could certainly be wrong, and be missing some hidden qualities. D'Amato is a good trainer.
From my limited info, I'd try to beat the :4: - if the ML is accurate.
If Arms Runner is 8/5 and Bowies Hero is 4-1, that's a completely different scenario.

Looking ahead, I still don't know what the hell I'm doing with this field...
Bowies Hero dominated, but we kind of know the class level of horses like Pioneer Lad, and Grecian Fire. Those two kind of make the the remaining field look like a big field of OC$n1x, rather than a bunch of talented horses capitalizing on stakes potential.
No one really jumps out at me from trip or race flow, but I didn't watch the race 100x. Rockin Rudy's chart doesn't look terrible, but I didn't see it on video.
Bowies Hero comes back next time at a fair price or an underlay, and we say "last time was the time"...