Handicapping Trainers

[timtam]

I see lots of people who use methods of creating a stable of trainers at individual tracks and then play those trainers in certain conditional races at certain odds. Has anyone really been successful with this method or with the advent of computers and certain trainer stats computerized or readily available has this overlay method now become a dinosaur?

[kenwoodallpromos]

When DRF is providing types of information, you can be sure many people are using it (trainer stats for selected angles).
An angle has to work very well to produce the same bets a lot of other people are making and still payoff.

[Bob Harris]

Since I cut my handicapping teeth in the Sartin school, I've never paid much attention to trainer moves. I have had the opportunity to play alongside Ed Bain a couple of times (produces trainer stats based on layoffs and claims) and I must say I was quite surprised at some of the horses he would wager on...they frequently had REALLY ugly running lines but usually ran extremely well. He's a pretty selective bettor (4-5 races a day) but he certainly has a handle on the habits of a number of trainers around the country. His website is edbain.com if you'd like more info on what he does.

As a side note for those who might be interested, I noticed that his wife, Susan Sweeney has a book coming out on the construction of exotic wagers. She likes to look for long priced horses she feels will finish 2nd or 3rd and then keys that horse with a few win contenders...a little different approach than I think most of us have...nice lady and very good player.

Bob

[hurrikane]

yes, I have considerable success with trainers.

The data the DRF puts out is too generic. So some no brainers is moves the odds but these would not usually be in the odds range I play anyway.

[CryingForTheHorses]

HOW can you handicap a TRAINER when HE is only as good as his horse..The trainer ISNT better then his horse,If Bill Mott had a stable of BAD horses and lost 55 in a row..you would be saying HE was a bad trainer,I think its HOGWASH.(MY Opinon)

[schweitz]

Originally posted by McSchell_Racing
HOW can you handicap a TRAINER when HE is only as good as his horse..The trainer ISNT better then his horse,If Bill Mott had a stable of BAD horses and lost 55 in a row..you would be saying HE was a bad trainer,I think its HOGWASH.(MY Opinon)

Do you wager on the horses you train?

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by McSchell_Racing
HOW can you handicap a TRAINER when HE is only as good as his horse..The trainer ISNT better then his horse,If Bill Mott had a stable of BAD horses and lost 55 in a row..you would be saying HE was a bad trainer,I think its HOGWASH.(MY Opinon)

So, a trainer hires an exercise rider and rents a stall and enters the horse in a race and if the horse is good he wins and if he's bad he loses. Is that it?

You should write a book. I'm not making as much money as I think I could and I think you could help me out.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Originally posted by ranchwest
So, a trainer hires an exercise rider and rents a stall and enters the horse in a race and if the horse is good he wins and if he's bad he loses. Is that it?

You should write a book. I'm not making as much money as I think I could and I think you could help me out.

A horse in my opinon is ONLY as good as the field he hooks.LOTS of horses are THE BEST in the field they HOOK.Horses lose races for MANY reasons uncontrolable by the trainer, LOTS of horses lose races that COULD have been prevented BY the trainer.The UNCONTROLABLE loss's come form when the horse have left the paddock headed out for the race..Lots can happen before they sprng the gate. The CONTROLABLE loss's come from the barn..Horse may have issues that arent addressd properly..ie VET WORK, SHOEING , POOR EATER, etc. YOU can have a horse that has BEAT all the horses in his race 2x and STILL lose because of the above mentioned.If I do wager on my horse (My Horse Only) I dont EVER bet a lot. The purse is GOOD enough for me..Tell me about this book?

[Blackgold]

Some trainers habitually train in the same method(s).

For instance, MarK Cramer once noted that if R. McAnnally shows up with a horse coming from a long layoff with a series of steady 7f works, then look out.

For the first six months of '99 I just bet layoff horses and did quite well, but I had to use everything in context. If the horse fit the race and was well worked (or I induced farm works) and went off at a price, I was on him.

Other trainers are good spotting a recent claim and others do well getting a first timer to win at first asking.

I have studied Ed Bain's methods, have read his book, have read about he and his wife Susan in Mark Cramer's writings, and have seen a couple of his newsletters and he does do well. Where I part with him is betting just because of a certain angle and ignoring the other factors in todays race like class, pace, distance, etc.

The reason I started hammering layoff horses anyway is because the public typically underbets them. Again, we are back to the crux of beating this game- backing runners with a legit shot that are going off at a price.

[delayjf]

I have had good luck with Olmsteads trainer report. If he said a trainer wins under certain condictions then I would take a closer look at his entry and try to determine if the horse ran his race, could he win this race. If the answer was yes and the price was right, I would bet. With maidens, especially FTS, you bet on blind faith. But I've caught many bombs with FTS using his stats.

When a horse is coming off a bad race or layoff or what ever, the thing I want to know is "IS HE SENDING TODAY". From here I handicap the horse to see if he can win.

[schweitz]

Originally posted by McSchell_Racing
A horse in my opinon is ONLY as good as the field he hooks.LOTS of horses are THE BEST in the field they HOOK.Horses lose races for MANY reasons uncontrolable by the trainer, LOTS of horses lose races that COULD have been prevented BY the trainer.The UNCONTROLABLE loss's come form when the horse have left the paddock headed out for the race..Lots can happen before they sprng the gate. The CONTROLABLE loss's come from the barn..Horse may have issues that arent addressd properly..ie VET WORK, SHOEING , POOR EATER, etc. YOU can have a horse that has BEAT all the horses in his race 2x and STILL lose because of the above mentioned.If I do wager on my horse (My Horse Only) I dont EVER bet a lot. The purse is GOOD enough for me..Tell me about this book?

McSchell, I handicap the trainers who do wager on their horses and have shown a pattern that sets them up for a score--of course I don't do this blindly (you have to handicap the race also)----but sometimes if my stats show the trainer has a proven roi with the move he is trying I will place a wager on his horse no matter how bad his horse looks or how good the competition looks. I keep my own trainer stats for the four tracks I play and wager mostly on cheap claimers, maiden claimers and turf claimers.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hur- Yes, DRF trainer info is genrric and knowing more about their methods would help.
Tom- Yes a trainert can have lousy circumstances and be a good trainer; but to most bettors a "bad' trainer is one who produces a negative ROI for their mounts, whether the fault of the trainer or not.
Hur and Tom- I do believe a horse (or trainer) can definitely out perform a trainer's current stats and the PP's can reveal that, making for a good overlay.

[mountainman]

I agree that drf trainer stats are too broad and certainly overbet. Still, they can be useful as "stop-signs" when a trainer is terrible in some relevant category and, since they include the roi for each angle, can also serve as needed reminders that high percentages and profit don't often go hand in hand in this era of info- availability.

While i used to keep detailed trainer-stats for my home track, and respect the commitment of serious players that still do likewise, i wonder at what point(thanks-or no thanks- to innovations such as "formulator-4") every player with a computer will know how Cole Norman fares on Tuesdays with 4-yr-old first time starters in the 6-1 to 8-1 odds range on off tracks at seven furlongs. At some point, in my opinion, it will all become gibberish and at that point, we will have come full cycle to human judgement and comprehensive handicapping, which is where we started to begin with.

Therefore i believe(and some of you guys sound smarter than i am about trainer angles) that long range trainer stats (even finely- tuned ,situation-specific ones) are too available, overbet and often stale. I find it more profitable to focus on short term cycles and pattern matches. As Beyer once said; at the racetrack, what happened 15 minutes ago is more important than what happened 15 days ago, and what happened 15 days ago is more important than what happened 15 weeks ago. And the great thing about this philosophy, is that you don't NEED the skills of an Andy Beyer (or the dedication of devoted players who compile personalized trainer-stats) to profit from it.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by McSchell_Racing
A horse in my opinon is ONLY as good as the field he hooks.LOTS of horses are THE BEST in the field they HOOK.Horses lose races for MANY reasons uncontrolable by the trainer, LOTS of horses lose races that COULD have been prevented BY the trainer.The UNCONTROLABLE loss's come form when the horse have left the paddock headed out for the race..Lots can happen before they sprng the gate. The CONTROLABLE loss's come from the barn..Horse may have issues that arent addressd properly..ie VET WORK, SHOEING , POOR EATER, etc. YOU can have a horse that has BEAT all the horses in his race 2x and STILL lose because of the above mentioned.If I do wager on my horse (My Horse Only) I dont EVER bet a lot. The purse is GOOD enough for me..Tell me about this book?

Trainers who win a lot do so because they have stock they know how to handle, they spot appropriate races for their horse, they have the vet around appropriately, they make changes when a horse goes off his feed, etc. It isn't luck that causes some trainers to win 20%+ and others to be "oh-fers".

Yes, there's always a possibility that a horse will encounter some odd circumstances, but there are trainers who consistently post a strong ROI. That happens despite the "uncontrollable losses", which some call bad luck. There's an old baseball saying, "luck is when preparation and opportunity meet". When you have no preparation, it seems the opportunity to fail comes around real often.

[Shacopate]

Hey Mark,

I really enjoy listening to you and Nancy. Lots of info, sometimes I don't even bother downloading the form. Keep up the good work and please post more often.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Originally posted by ranchwest
Trainers who win a lot do so because they have stock they know how to handle, they spot appropriate races for their horse, they have the vet around appropriately, they make changes when a horse goes off his feed, etc. It isn't luck that causes some trainers to win 20%+ and others to be "oh-fers".

Yes, there's always a possibility that a horse will encounter some odd circumstances, but there are trainers who consistently post a strong ROI. That happens despite the "uncontrollable losses", which some call bad luck. There's an old baseball saying, "luck is when preparation and opportunity meet". When you have no preparation, it seems the opportunity to fail comes around real often.

I couldnt have said anything different. YOU are so right!!

[Houndog]

I do agree that the racing form stats on trainers are very generic and may be of little use to the handicapper looking for an edge. The product that I like are Jim Mazur's works in this area as they are more meet specific and breaks the trainers down in different categories in which you can see the areas certain trainers excel in. It also can be used for trainers that are low percentage plays regardless of the type of race entered. A good starting point for eliminations in large fields. It may be just as important to eliminate horses when trying to form a ticket in your exotics.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Hey Mark,

I really enjoy listening to you and Nancy. Lots of info, sometimes I don't even bother downloading the form. Keep up the good work and please post more often.

Ditto to that Shacopate.

Mark is one of the best and in my mind, he is a "Handicapping Guru".

JM:)

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by Bob Harris

As a side note for those who might be interested,
I noticed that his wife, Susan Sweeney has a book
coming out on the construction of exotic wagers.

She likes to look for long priced horses she feels will finish
2nd or 3rd and then keys that horse with a few win contenders...a little different approach
than I think most of us have...nice lady and very good player.

Bob


I look forward to reading that book,
since I embrace that particular exotics strategy at the windows.

When is the scheduled print date?
Does anyone know?http://www.hoc-board.de/phpBB2/smilies/nerv/gruebel.gif

[CapperLou]

I would be interested in knowing where to obtain Olmstead Trainer Report.
I'm not familiar with it--do most all of this myself with some help from software programs.

Your comments on Olmstead are interesting--how do I reach or purchase this product??

Also, has Jim Mazur written a book or does he just have a report on Delmar??

Thanks for any info you can provide.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. I'll mention one good trainer angle here that I posted on another thread that helped me get a tri & super at Delmar just recently.
Look out for Wesley Ward with 2 yr old FTS---19% and the combo of Ward/Pedrosa with 2 yr olds. A strong combo during the past few years.

Bob Selvin of Turfday has given us some good stuff on this board relating to trainers too.

Hurricane---YOU are the king of this stuff--how about one good angle for all of us punters!!!!!!

[Houndog]

I do not think Mazur has written a book but his reports cover Del Mar, Saratoga, Churchill Downs, Belmont, Gulfstream and other tracks as well. I know for a fact that he covers Gulfstream and Saratoga in depth. Hope this helps.

[CapperLou]

I don't use DRF--are his reports there? OR--where do I find them? You see----I do not know everything--thx for help--

All the best,

CapperLou

[Houndog]

CapperLou, Mazur has his own web site which will give you all the information you need. He can be reached at.

www.proghandicap.com

[CapperLou]

You have helped me--thanks very much!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[Turfday]

This will sound like a shameless plug, but my site www.turfday.com has the following info available at your fingertips:

(1) Trainer stats broken down into 36 different categories.

(2) Search features at your option: last 365 days from this past week, last 1095 days (three years) from this past week or "all-time" since Jan. 1, 1995.

(4) Each individual category is then broken down by:

Top Value
Top Consistency
Top Overall (50% Value + 50% Consistency)

Bottom (Worst) Value
Bottom (Worst) Consistency
Bottom (Worst) Overall (50% Value + 50% Consistency)

(5) You can also enter in the sample size...obviously the bigger the sample size, the more relevant the data.

[Speed Figure]

Your right, it's a shameless plug.;)

[delayjf]

Capperlou,

Just spent 15 minutes attempting to find the website but no joy. I bought the report off Dave Powers website or RPM.

With regards to the Olmstead trainer report, to be honest, it's very generic in nature. In fact it doesn't give any win percentages. It only indicated that a trainer is profitable with a specific manuver like layoffs or 1st claims. BUT, I think this actually helped my handicapping as if forced me to look deeper at the horse itself. Or to at least consider the horse as a contender.

With reguard to FTS, sometimes you have to bet on faith. But following his advise, I've hit some bombs when the report told me that this trainer can win with a FTS. For example, I recall at Delmar in 99 hitting two FTS in two days both at 45-1. Tavaris, trained by Kory Owens and Duck Season, trained by Anthony Saavandea. Both trainers were listed as profitable with FTS. The one that got away was a horse named Nanogram who broke his maiden in a turf sprint at Santa Anita with his first start on the turf at 70-1. Only after the fact did I look up the trainer John Sadler in the book. Sure enough, it said he was profitable with 1st turf horses. What made this horse even more intrigueing was that he was coming back on 7 days rest after a dull effort.

I never had the same success with the bris trainer stats. I wonder if the win % they listed would throw me off. For example, If a trainer only won at 20% in his layoffs attempts, I think I let the % make the decision for me instead of looking closer at the horse itself.

I'd be interested in hearing more about your software. If you want you can email me at the below address.
delayjf2002@yahoo.com

[CapperLou]

Got in touch with Jim Mazur's office on Friday 8/20 and they were very helpful in getting some "sheets" to me to examine. Much of what I have been doing by hand for several years is in there and a whole lot more. I think they can work alongside your handicapping nicely.

Here's a few instances since Friday at SAR & DMR!!!

8/20 3rd SAR Weaver very strong with FTS at Spa--Schosberg also had one in same race who was not FTS. but had another angle--Yankee Trick won at 7.50 & Abbagione ran 2nd at 8.40.
Violette(who has had an incredible meet) had Forest Hunter in the 6th who ran 2nd at 19-1 and paid 16.60 to place.
On Saturday at DMR in the 3rd Canani had Amorama which was a strong play based on what Mazur does and he had great value and also looked like he had a great shot on Equisim==great fractions--well---she got up in the DelMar Oaks to WIN at 40.60!

On Sunday there was one called Generalist in the 5th at DMR who looked very good again with Equisim and the trainer pointed out in these conditions was Juan Garcia--so--having this as my own pick and then having the added strength of this trainer info helped me get on this one and she broke her maiden at 29.40--beating a 4-5 shot called Territorial who has been highly touted at DelMar!!!

There were a few others, but the strength here is that this information gets you to put contenders in if you are playing exotics or to leave some horses out because the trainers are doing poorly.
It's not miraculous, but it seems to me could be very helpful when used in conjunction with your own picks. I'm taking a serious look at it to save me time and not having to do a lot of manual stuff myself.
They do not cover all meetings--again--Houndog--you have helped me and hope this post helps others!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[kenwoodallpromos]

For those who want more trainer stats than DRF. Turfday's site does have more.

[CapperLou]

Did you have this standout longshot in 4th DMR today--another example of Mazur's work!!!

#2 Littlebitofzip 32.60


Pointed out Dan Hendricks very strongly in this race.

Hope you had this one!!! Equisim had it very close behind the longshot who ran second and had the favorite 3rd. I did not play the trifecta, but did catch the win and exacta.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. I'm sure if you played today--you had it!!!!