Gun Runner vs. Songbird

[Dahoss9698]

I'm interested to see what people think. The question isn't what horse you'd like to own, or which horse has a better record. Who is the better horse right now?

[Fager Fan]

Why Gun Runner? Seems an odd choice. Stellar Wind I'd understand. Or Arrogate.

I wouldn't run Songbird against males (but neither would I run Stellar Wind against them), so that tells you my answer, but why him? Is she ahead of him in the poll or something?

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I am a huge songbird fan, but given her last two races I do not think she could beat gun runner. Maybe she will continue to move forward?

[castaway01]

Why Gun Runner? Seems an odd choice. Stellar Wind I'd understand. Or Arrogate.

I wouldn't run Songbird against males (but neither would I run Stellar Wind against them), so that tells you my answer, but why him? Is she ahead of him in the poll or something?

Because there wouldn't be much point of a poll between Arrogate and anyone else?

[Dahoss9698]

Why Gun Runner? Seems an odd choice. Stellar Wind I'd understand. Or Arrogate.

I wouldn't run Songbird against males (but neither would I run Stellar Wind against them), so that tells you my answer, but why him? Is she ahead of him in the poll or something?

Not sure why it's odd. Like Castaway said, a poll with Arrogate would be unanimous.

I've been reading A LOT of irrational things in regards to Songbird after this weekend and I'm curious about how people feel she stacks up against who I believe in the 2nd best dirt horse right now, Gun Runner.

[Fager Fan]

Not sure why it's odd. Like Castaway said, a poll with Arrogate would be unanimous.

I've been reading A LOT of irrational things in regards to Songbird after this weekend and I'm curious about how people feel she stacks up against who I believe in the 2nd best dirt horse right now, Gun Runner.

I'm seeing her getting beat up pretty badly, so I'm surprised you didn't put her up against Zippy Chippy.

I don't know what's going on with her. She's not working the bullets this year, or getting the breezing designations she was prior, but all the articles say Mike thinks she's working better than ever, just that she's gotten really smart and relaxes and does just what he asks.

Has she lost a step, or has she gotten lazy and doing whatever she just needs to do? I wondered if she could step up against the likes of Beholder and she did. Is she now running up or down based on her competition? Has she made it a game? I've no idea. I expect more than she showed in the past two. Maybe it's rust. If she's still rusty after this one, then the rust isn't ever getting knocked off. The next race will tell us the answer.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm seeing her getting beat up pretty badly, so I'm surprised you didn't put her up against Zippy Chippy.

I don't know what's going on with her. She's not working the bullets this year, or getting the breezing designations she was prior, but all the articles say Mike thinks she's working better than ever, just that she's gotten really smart and relaxes and does just what he asks.

Has she lost a step, or has she gotten lazy and doing whatever she just needs to do? I wondered if she could step up against the likes of Beholder and she did. Is she now running up or down based on her competition? Has she made it a game? I've no idea. I expect more than she showed in the past two. Maybe it's rust. If she's still rusty after this one, then the rust isn't ever getting knocked off. The next race will tell us the answer.

Funny, I'm seeing the complete opposite. I'm seeing her being discussed as an all time great and top 5 fillies of all time.

I think she's lost a step this year, which is understood. But I also think her record (especially when you look at who she beat last year) is a bit misleading in regards to her place in history. She ran lights out in the Breeders Cup last year, no doubt about it. Outside of that she beat a lot of fillies who are okay, but not very good.

She's a terrific filly, who has been able to take her game on the road many times, which is very admirable. And the fact she wants to win, as evidenced by her record makes her special. But there's more to a record when you start talking all time.

[Fager Fan]

I think it's fair that to say she's a historic female. Don't know until the fat lady sings where she stacks up against the others, but always hated the comparison to Ruffian. No filly has come close to doing what Ruffian did.

But 9 G1 wins and winning 13 of 14 isn't easy regardless of competition. If it was, we'd have a lot more to do it because the competition is always light in one division or another every year. The competition for Arrogate isn't all that either. For him, it's how he's winning, not who he beat.

[Dahoss9698]

I think it's fair that to say she's a historic female. Don't know until the fat lady sings where she stacks up against the others, but always hated the comparison to Ruffian. No filly has come close to doing what Ruffian did.

But 9 G1 wins and winning 13 of 14 isn't easy regardless of competition. If it was, we'd have a lot more to do it because the competition is always light in one division or another every year. The competition for Arrogate isn't all that either. For him, it's how he's winning, not who he beat.

I think we should look into grading races after they've been run. Because you can't tell me some of her grade 1 wins were grade 1 fields. Thats where critical analysis comes in, which unfortunately many just aren't interested in.

In the past 25 years I have Heavenly Prize, Inside Information, Silverbulletday, Rags to Riches (short career but beating Curlin sticks out), Rachel Alexandra, Azeri, Zenyatta, Royal Delta and Beholder as being better than her and I probably missed a few. I know we're talking opinions here but to me, that doesn't make her all time.

[Dahoss9698]

I think we should look into grading races after they've been run. Because you can't tell me some of her grade 1 wins were grade 1 fields. Thats where critical analysis comes in, which unfortunately many just aren't interested in.

In the past 25 years I have Heavenly Prize, Inside Information, Silverbulletday, Rags to Riches (short career but beating Curlin sticks out), Rachel Alexandra, Azeri, Zenyatta, Royal Delta and Beholder as being better than her and I probably missed a few. I know we're talking opinions here but to me, that doesn't make her all time.

I can't believe I forgot Serena's Song. :bang:

[Fager Fan]

I think we should look into grading races after they've been run. Because you can't tell me some of her grade 1 wins were grade 1 fields. Thats where critical analysis comes in, which unfortunately many just aren't interested in.

In the past 25 years I have Heavenly Prize, Inside Information, Silverbulletday, Rags to Riches (short career but beating Curlin sticks out), Rachel Alexandra, Azeri, Zenyatta, Royal Delta and Beholder as being better than her and I probably missed a few. I know we're talking opinions here but to me, that doesn't make her all time.

Speaking of critical assessments, you seem to be more generous to some of them than Songbird. All good fillies, but Heavely Prize as I recall rarely if ever won outside of NY, Rags to Riches got a set up (Ill always wonder how much Gomez was paid to use Hard Spun to pin Curlin in until Rags got the jump on him), and she list to tomato cans too, I don't remember who the first three really beat except Inside Info beating HP over a sloppy track. Also don't recall who Azeri really beat. Zenyatta, props, but she was an enigma and aided by running on synths, Royal Delta was spanked by HdG (who you don't name) a whole lot worse than Songbird ran against Beholder if you want to look at 2 very similar meetings. So the only one I'm giving you with little criticism is Rachel, but even her detractors ask what really good horses she beat (I personally don't downgrade her for that).

[dilanesp]

She's winning, and that Delaware race isn't her best distance.

But a decent colt like Cupid or Gun Runner would beat her easily.

[Dahoss9698]

Speaking of critical assessments, you seem to be more generous to some of them than Songbird. All good fillies, but Heavely Prize as I recall rarely if ever won outside of NY, Rags to Riches got a set up (Ill always wonder how much Gomez was paid to use Hard Spun to pin Curlin in until Rags got the jump on him), and she list to tomato cans too, I don't remember who the first three really beat except Inside Info beating HP over a sloppy track. Also don't recall who Azeri really beat. Zenyatta, props, but she was an enigma and aided by running on synths, Royal Delta was spanked by HdG (who you don't name) a whole lot worse than Songbird ran against Beholder if you want to look at 2 very similar meetings. So the only one I'm giving you with little criticism is Rachel, but even her detractors ask what really good horses she beat (I personally don't downgrade her for that).

Oh I see, since you can't recall who they beat, they must not have beaten better. Here's a thought, do a little bit of research and come on back when you're ready to have an actual opinion and not just "I disagree with you because it's you."

Like I said, people aren't really interested in critical assessments.

[Fager Fan]

I looked up Heavenly Orize to jog my memory. She did win once away from NY when she won at Oaklawn.

But how down would we be if Songbird just lost an ungraded stake to Swift and Classy by 2 1/2 lengths? She lost to Phone Chatter, Sardula, Penny's Reshoot (twice), Twist Afkeet, One Dreamer, Halo America, and more. Not exactly all-timers.

Just doing that critical assessing thing.

[Fager Fan]

Oh I see, since you can't recall who they beat, they must not have beaten better. Here's a thought, do a little bit of research and come on back when you're ready to have an actual opinion and not just "I disagree with you because it's you."

Like I said, people aren't really interested in critical assessments.

You can't go long without ass coming out.

[burnsy]

I'm interested to see what people think. The question isn't what horse you'd like to own, or which horse has a better record. Who is the better horse right now?

Best horse right now? Not even a contest, Gun Runner would not even be a contest between him and Martini Glass. Clearly the distance was a problem for her the other day. Luckily, she was in a light spot. If the Personal Ensign (one of her next possible starts) was not turned back to 9 furlongs in 2012, I would say she would be a vulnerable favorite. After seeing that performance, depending on who shows up she will still be over bet unless her 3rd race back shoots her some improvement, which could happen. The fillies and mares can drop edge in a heart beat....that was a hard race for her. The horses in that race would be staring at Gun Runners ass end all the way around........RIGHT NOW, its not even close. The last two were supposed to be tune ups......it gets tougher from there for her. There's probably only a couple or a few horses that can possibly beat Gun Runner right now and Songbird as great as she was.......ain't one of them. She needs a "bounce back" performance to even consider the boys right now.

[Spalding No!]

I can't believe I forgot Serena's Song. :bang:
From 2 to 3, Sky Beauty's career was fairly similar to Songbird's. Undefeated at 2 and (nearly) unbeatable at 3 while facing a fairly light 3yo filly crop. Beyond a pair of good but limited/inconsistent Phipps fillies (Dispute and Educated Risk), Sky Beauty pretty much strolled through the season while putting up modest speed figures for the most part. When she faced older horses for the first time in the BC Distaff she was beaten with no excuses (beyond shipping to CA).

The difference between Sky Beauty and Songbird appears at this point to be that Sky Beauty improved from age 3 to 4 averaging 105+ Beyers throughout the year before another meltdown in the Distaff. She only regressed as a 5yo or came undone.

People are saying Songbird has lost a step, but at this point I'd simply say she is the same filly as last year, which means she was never going to be fast enough for an older horse campaign if there was decent talent in the division.

Certainly there are some things possibly holding her back. She took 8 months to return to the races, which no matter what was reported in the press (minor leg injury in stall) suggests quite a lot of wear-and-tear from the previous campaign. In comparison, Hollendorfer's other 3yo champion filly Blind Luck ran as early as mid-January in her 4yo year. There is also something to be said for racing 10f in her second start (never mind shipping for both of those races). As I recall, her Alabama last year was perhaps her most uninspiring run of the season, more workman-like than spectacular.

As some horses seem to show marked improvement in their third start off a layoff I suppose Songbird deserves another chance before she's written off as not making the jump from 3 to 4. However, considering the above its probably just as likely that she goes backwards in her next start.

[lamboguy]

i would love to know how you can take SONGBIRD from her last race and convert it into a good run against better horses? its not happening and there is a good chance we have seen the end of her career as a race horse. i see no reason to pay high insurance for a horse that is on the downslide like her for whatever reason.

face it she was great as a 3 year old, but not so great now.

[Spalding No!]

I looked up Heavenly Orize to jog my memory. She did win once away from NY when she won at Oaklawn.

But how down would we be if Songbird just lost an ungraded stake to Swift and Classy by 2 1/2 lengths? She lost to Phone Chatter, Sardula, Penny's Reshoot (twice), Twist Afkeet, One Dreamer, Halo America, and more. Not exactly all-timers.

Just doing that critical assessing thing.
I wouldn't begrudge a long-winded mare like Heavenly Prize for getting beat in a couple of sprint stakes and preps that were clearly tune-ups for important engagements like the Alabama and Apple Blossom (which she won).

The biggest stain on Heavenly Prize's career was getting beat by One Dreamer in the Distaff, but considering that she was the only 3yo filly from that outstanding crop (Inside Information, Lakeway, Sardula) to even make it to the race shows why the BC is rarely the true litmus test of a championship season.

[Dahoss9698]

You can't go long without ass coming out.

What did I say that was untrue?

Why is it so hard for you to deal with someone disagreeing without calling names?

[Fager Fan]

What did I say that was untrue?

Why is it so hard for you to deal with someone disagreeing without calling names?

Why's it so hard for you to not be a dick?

[PaceAdvantage]

Why's it so hard for you to not be a dick?You can stop now.

[Fager Fan]

You can stop now.

For once, quit playing favorites. Your buddy was being a dick for no reason. So say something to him.

[PaceAdvantage]

For once, quit playing favorites. Your buddy was being a dick for no reason. So say something to him.So we're going to head down towards another closed thread.

I'll remind you who called who a name first. Like this is kindergarten I suppose.

[Fager Fan]

So we're going to head down towards another closed thread.

I'll remind you who called who a name first. Like this is kindergarten I suppose.

I'll remind you that one needn't call someone "a name" to respond like an absolute dick. I don't want to waste my time coming up with a clever way of calling him a dick without directly doing so, just so I'm not calling him "a name." I mean, boo hoo. And you think I'm acting like a kindergartner?

Others on this forum know you protect Da Hoss. I've gotten PMs thanking me for calling him out.

So close the thread for all I care. If Da Hoss responds to me like a dick, I'm going to call him one.

[Spalding No!]

i would love to know how you can take SONGBIRD from her last race and convert it into a good run against better horses? its not happening and there is a good chance we have seen the end of her career as a race horse.
It's called progression. Surely you must have seen horses coming off layoffs that improved from start to start despite moving up the ladder?

See the PPs for Kotashaan's comeback in late 1992 off a leg injury for the quintessential example:

8.5f Allowance race - 5th
9f Grade 3 - 4th
10f Grade 2 - 2nd
12f Grade 2- 1st
12f Grade 1 - 1st
14f Grade 1 - 1st

[Fager Fan]

From 2 to 3, Sky Beauty's career was fairly similar to Songbird's. Undefeated at 2 and (nearly) unbeatable at 3 while facing a fairly light 3yo filly crop. Beyond a pair of good but limited/inconsistent Phipps fillies (Dispute and Educated Risk), Sky Beauty pretty much strolled through the season while putting up modest speed figures for the most part. When she faced older horses for the first time in the BC Distaff she was beaten with no excuses (beyond shipping to CA).

The difference between Sky Beauty and Songbird appears at this point to be that Sky Beauty improved from age 3 to 4 averaging 105+ Beyers throughout the year before another meltdown in the Distaff. She only regressed as a 5yo or came undone.

People are saying Songbird has lost a step, but at this point I'd simply say she is the same filly as last year, which means she was never going to be fast enough for an older horse campaign if there was decent talent in the division.

Certainly there are some things possibly holding her back. She took 8 months to return to the races, which no matter what was reported in the press (minor leg injury in stall) suggests quite a lot of wear-and-tear from the previous campaign. In comparison, Hollendorfer's other 3yo champion filly Blind Luck ran as early as mid-January in her 4yo year. There is also something to be said for racing 10f in her second start (never mind shipping for both of those races). As I recall, her Alabama last year was perhaps her most uninspiring run of the season, more workman-like than spectacular.

As some horses seem to show marked improvement in their third start off a layoff I suppose Songbird deserves another chance before she's written off as not making the jump from 3 to 4. However, considering the above its probably just as likely that she goes backwards in her next start.

A later article said she had bone bruising, that a spot being slow to heal was why she was off so long.

[Spalding No!]

A later article said she had bone bruising, that a spot being slow to heal was why she was off so long.
I thought I read that, too, and was looking for it before I posted but couldn't find it, so thanks.

The bone bruising issue in my opinion puts Songbird on the trail of regression rather than progression for future starts. I guess it will come down to whether Hollendorfer has been going all-in in these races knowing that her number of starts is limited or has been trying to hold something in reserve for the end of the year.

[Fager Fan]

I thought I read that, too, and was looking for it before I posted but couldn't find it, so thanks.

The bone bruising issue in my opinion puts Songbird on the trail of regression rather than progression for future starts. I guess it will come down to whether Hollendorfer has been going all-in in these races knowing that her number of starts is limited or has been trying to hold something in reserve for the end of the year.

It's concerning, for sure. But to the best of my knowledge, horses can come back from even severe bone bruising (let's say hers was severe since it took so long to come back) to the top of their game. Chrome was one of recent. I'm trying to recollect. Did he hit his best gear right after returning or did it take him a few races?

I'm a fan of the filly's, but like everyone else, I want to be wow'd, either by the time or ease of winning or something. These last 2 weren't wow races, but there were extenuating circumstances to not overestimate how bad her win was. 1 1/4 miles in second race, deep track, not being acclimated to the extreme heat/humidity, going cross country, and giving 9-13 pounds going 1 1/4 miles.

So let's see how she does in her next one. Almost doesn't seem right to be so negative on a win.

[Fager Fan]

Thinking more about it. She's taken her show to Santa Anita, Del Mar, Keeneland, Belmont, Saratoga, and Delaware Park. G1s wins at all those places.

[Dahoss9698]

I'll remind you that one needn't call someone "a name" to respond like an absolute dick. I don't want to waste my time coming up with a clever way of calling him a dick without directly doing so, just so I'm not calling him "a name." I mean, boo hoo. And you think I'm acting like a kindergartner?

Others on this forum know you protect Da Hoss. I've gotten PMs thanking me for calling him out.

So close the thread for all I care. If Da Hoss responds to me like a dick, I'm going to call him one.

Such a victim/ superhero.

I found it hilarious you were disagreeing with me but then saying you don't remember who they were facing. So what were you disagreeing with? Our argument was predicated on competition.

You're the one crying. You're the one whining because I answered you sarcastically when 3/4 of your posts here are sarcastic. Deal with it or go get a rattle.

[Dahoss9698]

Thinking more about it. She's taken her show to Santa Anita, Del Mar, Keeneland, Belmont, Saratoga, and Delaware Park. G1s wins at all those places.

Like a fan you're focusing on the grade. Not all grade 1s are equal. You've also yet to provide a cogent arguement as to why she's better than any I listed.

But you threw a nice tantrum so you get points for that. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Others on this forum know you protect Da Hoss. I've gotten PMs thanking me for calling him out.Yeah, I bet you got tons of PMs. Now who's being the dick exactly?

I've banned Dahoss MULTIPLE TIMES from here. How many times have I banned you?

And I protect him? Whatever man...more disillusion from you and your horde of supporters sending you PMs.

[Spalding No!]

It's concerning, for sure. But to the best of my knowledge, horses can come back from even severe bone bruising (let's say hers was severe since it took so long to come back) to the top of their game. Chrome was one of recent. I'm trying to recollect. Did he hit his best gear right after returning or did it take him a few races?
Ran a 104 BSF in the Grade 2 San Pasqual off the layoff before heading to Dubai for a prep and the World Cup. Ran 110+ BSFs upon return to the US.

[Fager Fan]

Such a victim/ superhero.

I found it hilarious you were disagreeing with me but then saying you don't remember who they were facing. So what were you disagreeing with? Our argument was predicated on competition.

You're the one crying. You're the one whining because I answered you sarcastically when 3/4 of your posts here are sarcastic. Deal with it or go get a rattle.

It was noting that I was going off recollection and could be wrong.

You must be a real pleasure to deal with in real life. And that's indeed sarcasm you're reading.

[Fager Fan]

Like a fan you're focusing on the grade. Not all grade 1s are equal. You've also yet to provide a cogent arguement as to why she's better than any I listed.

But you threw a nice tantrum so you get points for that. :lol:

You're on ignore, fella, so keep posting your nonsense. We'll let PA deal with you. Yes, that's more sarcasm.

[Fager Fan]

Ran a 104 BSF in the Grade 2 San Pasqual off the layoff before heading to Dubai for a prep and the World Cup. Ran 110+ BSFs upon return to the US.

Thanks, Spalding. I thought I remembered a couple light preps (competition wise), but that's a good Beyer. Honestly, her Beyer of 93 came back higher than I thought it was going to be.

[Dahoss9698]

You're on ignore, fella, so keep posting your nonsense. We'll let PA deal with you. Yes, that's more sarcasm.

I'm on ignore but you're quoting my post and responding to me. :lol:

Bothers you that you can't debate me about horses, huh?

[classhandicapper]

I would say the Songbird we've seen so far this year would get trounced by Gun Runner, but the peak Songbird of last year would give him quite a tussle. She ran Beholder to a nose and Beholder has been competitive against Grade 1 males. Maybe Gun Runner is a bit better than some of the males Beholder beat, but it's close enough.

I know some people are going to say that Songbird had the better trip against Beholder, but I thought the outside paths were good that day and I think Songbird was loose of other quality horses with some speed that backed up chasing her pace (I'm A Chatterbox and Curalina).

[PhantomOnTour]

Anyone have a current set of pp's for comparison?
Gun Runner is the choice though...he has the speed to lay all over the filly and would wear her down anywhere from 1m-1m1/4.

I compare Gun Runner a bit to Roses In May...in their own time they would be champions, but both have the misfortune of being overshadowed by absolute stars...Ghostzapper & Arrogate

P.S....yes, i was a big fan of Roses In May, he was FAST, could run quick splits and keep going

[Spalding No!]

Gun Runner is actually a good choice for comparison because to some extent, he also might be considered overrated.

Here is a horse who has failed in literally every single major test he's been in (the KY JC at 2, the KY Derby/Haskell/Travers/BC at 3, and the DWC at 4). Although you might say he "stays" 10f based on the DWC (ignoring that Arrogate--who thrashed him by 15 lengths in the 10f Travers--spotted the field 5 lengths or so at the start), in the end he has done nothing but losing ground in the stretch in all his 10f starts. He didn't win a Grade 1 until after last year's BC and his second Grade 1 score in the Foster came against some of the same horses he beat in the Grade 3 Razorback and Clark.

I'm not convinced he could handle Collected.

The good news is there is only two more 10f Grade 1s of consequence the rest of the year outside the BC (Pacific Classic and JCGC) and he probably won't start in either so his overinflated reputation will be secure if he holds on for second in Arrogate's open lengths victory in this year's BC Classic.

[GMB@BP]

Funny, I'm seeing the complete opposite. I'm seeing her being discussed as an all time great and top 5 fillies of all time.

I think she's lost a step this year, which is understood. But I also think her record (especially when you look at who she beat last year) is a bit misleading in regards to her place in history. She ran lights out in the Breeders Cup last year, no doubt about it. Outside of that she beat a lot of fillies who are okay, but not very good.

She's a terrific filly, who has been able to take her game on the road many times, which is very admirable. And the fact she wants to win, as evidenced by her record makes her special. But there's more to a record when you start talking all time.

Where are you reading those, seriously, I would like to read professional pieces that make those statements?

I am asking honestly.

Through 13 races her record is historically great (cant see how that is arguable) but I dont see real professionals putting her in a class like that.

[GMB@BP]

From 2 to 3, Sky Beauty's career was fairly similar to Songbird's. Undefeated at 2 and (nearly) unbeatable at 3 while facing a fairly light 3yo filly crop. Beyond a pair of good but limited/inconsistent Phipps fillies (Dispute and Educated Risk), Sky Beauty pretty much strolled through the season while putting up modest speed figures for the most part. When she faced older horses for the first time in the BC Distaff she was beaten with no excuses (beyond shipping to CA).

The difference between Sky Beauty and Songbird appears at this point to be that Sky Beauty improved from age 3 to 4 averaging 105+ Beyers throughout the year before another meltdown in the Distaff. She only regressed as a 5yo or came undone.

People are saying Songbird has lost a step, but at this point I'd simply say she is the same filly as last year, which means she was never going to be fast enough for an older horse campaign if there was decent talent in the division.

Certainly there are some things possibly holding her back. She took 8 months to return to the races, which no matter what was reported in the press (minor leg injury in stall) suggests quite a lot of wear-and-tear from the previous campaign. In comparison, Hollendorfer's other 3yo champion filly Blind Luck ran as early as mid-January in her 4yo year. There is also something to be said for racing 10f in her second start (never mind shipping for both of those races). As I recall, her Alabama last year was perhaps her most uninspiring run of the season, more workman-like than spectacular.

As some horses seem to show marked improvement in their third start off a layoff I suppose Songbird deserves another chance before she's written off as not making the jump from 3 to 4. However, considering the above its probably just as likely that she goes backwards in her next start.

Isnt the real difference that physically when Sky Beauty shipped, and I am guessing in a plane not by van, that she fell apart? Both of her BC starts she had lost weight and was not the same horse.

[Spalding No!]

Isnt the real difference that physically when Sky Beauty shipped, and I am guessing in a plane not by van, that she fell apart? Both of her BC starts she had lost weight and was not the same horse.
On speed figures, Sky Beauty ran to form in the '93 BC Distaff. She hovered on either side of 100 BSF all year and she registered 101 in the BC. Both Hollywood Wildcat and Paseana were consistently faster than her throughout the season and remained so on BC day.

That's why Sky Beauty was 9-2 to Paseana's 5-2 and Hollywood Wildcat's 6-5 odds.

[GMB@BP]

On speed figures, Sky Beauty ran to form in the '93 BC Distaff. She hovered on either side of 100 BSF all year and she registered 101 in the BC. Both Hollywood Wildcat and Paseana were consistently faster than her throughout the season and remained so on BC day.

That's why Sky Beauty was 9-2 to Paseana's 5-2 and Hollywood Wildcat's 6-5 odds.

What about in 94?

[reckless]

I think we should look into grading races after they've been run. Because you can't tell me some of her grade 1 wins were grade 1 fields. Thats where critical analysis comes in, which unfortunately many just aren't interested in.

In the past 25 years I have Heavenly Prize, Inside Information, Silverbulletday, Rags to Riches (short career but beating Curlin sticks out), Rachel Alexandra, Azeri, Zenyatta, Royal Delta and Beholder as being better than her and I probably missed a few. I know we're talking opinions here but to me, that doesn't make her all time.

Do you remember Revidere, Dahoss?

She ran the very next year after Ruffian. Also by Revidere but not out of the same mare. Owned by the same people, too, Stuart Janney.

Her numbers were equal and often greater than Ruffian's were, by my way of doing speed figures at the time. Just sayin'.

[Dahoss9698]

Do you remember Revidere, Dahoss?

She ran the very next year after Ruffian. Also by Revidere but not out of the same mare. Owned by the same people, too, Stuart Janney.

Her numbers were equal and often greater than Ruffian's were, by my way of doing speed figures at the time. Just sayin'.

I'm more familiar with Ruffian (obvious reasons) than Revidere but both were WAY before my time.

[Dahoss9698]

Where are you reading those, seriously, I would like to read professional pieces that make those statements?

I am asking honestly.

Through 13 races her record is historically great (cant see how that is arguable) but I dont see real professionals putting her in a class like that.

I haven't seen any articles. Just cat lady's and others on twitter.

[GMB@BP]

I haven't seen any articles. Just cat lady's and others on twitter.

Yea, well that would not be shocking at all.

It seems like those cat people are being used a bit as a strawman with a lot of responses I have seen.

[GMB@BP]

Speaking of Arrogate...was I the only one that felt Bafferts comments a bit, dont want to say concerning but to say the horse had a tough time coming out of Dubai and putting weight back on, well a horse like Gun Runner at his best can beat a down Arrogate.

[Fager Fan]

I ran across Serling on Twitter and see now where this thread came from. He questions is she's better than Gun Runner or Winx if she's the second best horse in the world. His list of better fillies is almost exactly parroted here. He riled some people too, including Paulick who told him he ought to delete his Twitter account, and also posted a video of Songbird getting the "last laugh."

One doofus questioned whether the filly is good for racing, if she actually brings anyone to the track. The answer would be yes. Ask Del Park.

I guess she's giving us all something to talk about which is always a good thing.

[Dahoss9698]

I ran across Serling on Twitter and see now where this thread came from. He questions is she's better than Gun Runner or Winx if she's the second best horse in the world. His list of better fillies is almost exactly parroted here. He riled some people too, including Paulick who told him he ought to delete his Twitter account, and also posted a video of Songbird getting the "last laugh."

One doofus questioned whether the filly is good for racing, if she actually brings anyone to the track. The answer would be yes. Ask Del Park.

I guess she's giving us all something to talk about which is always a good thing.

That's actually not where the thread came from. I already explained where it came from when you asked the first time. I was curious to see how people thought she compared to the next best dirt horse after Arrogate.

You'd be better off not listening to the people who pm you. And frankly, the only person who got riled here was you. :lol:

[GMB@BP]

A little bit of this seems like a game of "gotcha", if you keep saying a horse should lose, keep picking against a horse, sooner or later your likely to be right.

When you pick a horse to lose every race I am not sure that strengthens the position that the horse is not as good as their record when the horse keeps winning, especially considering the schedule that this particular horse keeps.

I can appreciate the opinion that a horse may have a bit of an inflated record but when your 13/14 with 9 grade 1's at 5 or 6 tracks over 3 seasons...well knocking the horse seems a tad bit silly.

[Spalding No!]

What about in 94?
Whatever happened there doesn't seem related to her effort in '93.

She was caught wide throughout while under pressure to keep pace early and then failed to switch leads down the lane (as did 2nd-to-last Exchange). Went on a 6-month break following the race--which granted may have been the plan anyways regardless of performance.

Curiously, prior to the BC, Sky Beauty skipped an obvious start in the Beldame after winning the Ruffian under 130lbs. Perhaps that race took a lot out of her. Certainly Dispute came at her with a sharp run in the stretch (and subsequently won the Spinster).

[Fager Fan]

A little bit of this seems like a game of "gotcha", if you keep saying a horse should lose, keep picking against a horse, sooner or later your likely to be right.

When you pick a horse to lose every race I am not sure that strengthens the position that the horse is not as good as their record when the horse keeps winning, especially considering the schedule that this particular horse keeps.

I can appreciate the opinion that a horse may have a bit of an inflated record but when your 13/14 with 9 grade 1's at 5 or 6 tracks over 3 seasons...well knocking the horse seems a tad bit silly.

Paulick said 7 tracks in 5 states, so I'd forgotten one earlier, the Cotillion at Parx.

SA
Del Mar
Belmont
Saratoga
Parx
Keeneland
Delaware

Anyone know the last horse to win G1s at 7 different tracks?

[Dahoss9698]

A little bit of this seems like a game of "gotcha", if you keep saying a horse should lose, keep picking against a horse, sooner or later your likely to be right.

When you pick a horse to lose every race I am not sure that strengthens the position that the horse is not as good as their record when the horse keeps winning, especially considering the schedule that this particular horse keeps.

I can appreciate the opinion that a horse may have a bit of an inflated record but when your 13/14 with 9 grade 1's at 5 or 6 tracks over 3 seasons...well knocking the horse seems a tad bit silly.

Who's playing gotcha and who has picked against her? Who in their right mind would pick against her Saturday? Who's knocking her?

You're a gambler (unlike Fager Fan) so I know you're able to look at things objectively. You can't beat the 9 grade 1s drum, but then totally refuse to acknowledge the grade 1s did not always feature grade 1 talent.

The Delaware Handicap was a grade 1 that featured Songbird and ONE other horse that had even won a graded stake, Weep No More. Since winning the Ashland (at 30-1), Weep No More has finished 7th, 5th, 4th, 5th, 6th and was 5th on Saturday, beaten around 28 lengths.

In her grade 1s last spring Songbird was beating Land Over Sea and Mokat. Land Over Sea has won ONE graded stake in her career. The grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. She beat two horses that have won a graded stake in that race, Street Fancy, who won the Starlet (another bad grade 1) at Los Alamitos and Venus Valentine, 74-1 winner of the Rachel Alexandra in her prior start. Horses coming out of the FG oaks are a combined 2-33 with two allowance wins.

Mokat is an okay turf horse, winner of the grade 2 San Clemente, but has never won on dirt. Yes, that's right, ZERO dirt wins.

Songbird was brilliant through the summer winning the CCA Oaks and Alabama.
Not much behind her in either race except for Carina Mia, a sprinter but she was awesome. Again, in name they're grade 1s and it's not her fault that the crop is kind of light outside of her, but not grade 1 talent in either race. She crushed Cathryn Sophia at Parx, in another awesome effort. Cathryn Sophia would probably be the 2nd most accomplished 3 year old filly last year and she crushed her on a quirky track. Props on a big race.

And she ran lights out in the Breeders Cup, the first true grade 1 (IMO) that she ran in all year.

I think we'd both agree the Phipps was light this year. She was workmanlike, but the grade 1 horses were running in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita. I do not begrudge them for not wanting to tackle them off a 7 month break.

So yes, the record is VERY impressive. But when she's getting mentioned historically, why is it taboo to examine that record? Why is it considered knocking if you're analyzing the races, their quality, etc?

I don't recall seeing anyone saying anything negative about her. I'm sure her feelings aren't being hurt, with people looking at her races objectively. The only feelings being hurt are those people who are covering their eyes and putting their fingers in their ears, while saying things like 9 grade 1s and top 5 filly of all time. That's silly if you ask me. Her record is "better" but do we even know she's a better horse than Stellar Wind? I know she beat her in the Distaff but I'm not sure she'd beat her 3 out of 5. And Stellar Wind beat Beholder twice.

One more question...what do you think Serena's Song record would look like if she ran in the same races? Silverbulletday? Azeri? Beholder? Zenyatta?

That's my point. Songbird is a brilliant filly. She's traveled and she's showed up every time. But historically, I don't think she matches up well....yet.

[classhandicapper]

On speed figures, Sky Beauty ran to form in the '93 BC Distaff. She hovered on either side of 100 BSF all year and she registered 101 in the BC. Both Hollywood Wildcat and Paseana were consistently faster than her throughout the season and remained so on BC day.

That's why Sky Beauty was 9-2 to Paseana's 5-2 and Hollywood Wildcat's 6-5 odds.

In her first trip to the west coast Sky Beauty was a 3yo going against older for the 1st time in the Breeder's Cup and there were some killers in that race. (I was there that day)

In her 2nd attempt she was so dreadful it's hard to argue she ran her race when shipped to CD.

You can easily argue she ran her race at 3 and was simply overmatched, but if you look at her overall record, the fact that Jerkens rarely shipped, and her poor race at CD, I think you can also argue she did not run up to par in the 1st attempt either. It depends how much faith you want to put in a 101 Beyer figure to express how well she ran that day.

[Spalding No!]

You can easily argue she ran her race at 3 and was simply overmatched, but if you look at her overall record, the fact that Jerkens rarely shipped, and her poor race at CD, I think you can also argue she did not run up to par in the 1st attempt either. It depends how much faith you want to put in a 101 Beyer figure to express how well she ran that day.
Beyond the speed figures, I think there is evidence that Sky Beauty ran to par in the '93 Distaff. Like Songbird, she too could be said to have been "overrated" based on overall record. In reality, she was beating the same old tired horses (i.e. Future Pretense, In Her Glory, Silky Feather) for the better part of the season.

The only horse of note she defeated was Dispute, which she did handily in both the Mother Goose and the CCA Oaks. Dispute had repelled her earlier in the Bonnie Miss and then took the Kentucky Oaks. Perhaps based on the Gulfstream effort, Jerry Bailey and McGaughey must have decided that Dispute was an out-and-out frontrunner, and in the Triple Tiara attempted to wire the field in both races to no avail. Fortunately, McGaughey pulled her from the Alabama to regroup on the turf. That failed, but in the fall Dispute blossomed and found renewed life as a closer. In the Gazelle, she smashed by open lengths the same fillies Sky Beauty was beating by only a length and a half or so.

That aside, it is also telling that while Dispute's campaign in the fall included the Gazelle (1st), the Ruffian (2nd), and the Beldame (1st)--all Grade 1s, two versus elders)--Sky Beauty only showed up for the Rare Perfume, a Grade 2 restricted to 3yos. Her performance in that lopsided race (on paper) was rather ordinary. Had Sky Beauty followed a logical fall campaign I would suggest that Dispute would have given her all she could handle.

In the BC itself, Sky Beauty stalked the pace, bid for the lead from the 3/8s to the 1/4 pole and then wilted in the stretch. Sure enough, Dispute rallied near the inside and got by her in the final furlong to be 4th, while making no impression on the CA horses.

[SharpCat]

Paulick said 7 tracks in 5 states, so I'd forgotten one earlier, the Cotillion at Parx.

SA
Del Mar
Belmont
Saratoga
Parx
Keeneland
Delaware

Anyone know the last horse to win G1s at 7 different tracks?

American Pharoah won G1s at 8 different tracks.

Keenland
Monmouth
Belmont
Pimlico
Churchill
Oaklawn
Santa Anita
Del Mar

[Spalding No!]

American Pharoah won G1s at 8 different tracks.
Cigar won at 7 tracks if you count Dubai.

Sunday Silence, Skip Away, Chief's Crown, High Chapparal, Point Given, and Bayakoa won at 6 tracks.

[Fager Fan]

American Pharoah won G1s at 8 different tracks.

Keenland
Monmouth
Belmont
Pimlico
Churchill
Oaklawn
Santa Anita
Del Mar

Thanks, SC. I was pondering some horses and didn't even think of him.

Rachel - 5
Blind Luck - 5
Zenyatta - 4
Serena's Song - 4
Royal Delta - 4
Ruffian - 4
Inside Information - 3
Rags to Riches - 3
Havre de Grace - 3
Sky Beauty - 2
Beholder - 2

If we add in Rachel's G2 wins, she won at 8 different tracks. Adding Ruffian's G3 wins, and she won at 7 different tracks.

[Fager Fan]

Cigar won at 7 tracks if you count Dubai.

Sunday Silence, Skip Away, Chief's Crown, High Chapparal, Point Given, and Bayakoa won at 6 tracks.

Thanks, Spalding. I'd count Dubai. Nice list. Adored Cigar, and came around to loving Skip Away too. PG just never did it for me. I liked Bayakoa, but liked Paseana better when ranking SA mares.

[classhandicapper]

Beyond the speed figures, I think there is evidence that Sky Beauty ran to par in the '93 Distaff. Like Songbird, she too could be said to have been "overrated" based on overall record. In reality, she was beating the same old tired horses (i.e. Future Pretense, In Her Glory, Silky Feather) for the better part of the season.



I agree that both Sky Beauty and Songbird ran in some soft spots, but I don't think that automatically indicates that a horse is not great. It's not the fault of the horse if no one shows up, a specific crop happens to be weak, or if the connections don't go looking around for the greatest challenge every time.

I think most of these horses eventually do get tested a few times. That's when you find out what has been in the tank all along.

For Songbird, I think running Beholder to a nose on a track that played just fine to the outside where Beholder was placed after shaking loose from 2 quality stalkers that tired badly chasing her revealed that a lot of those very handy wins against weaker in slowish times were not an indication that she was overrated. They were an indication that she had plenty in the tank and was only one jump away from beating a sensational and more seasoned older mare with a Grade 1 win over males.

I fully understand your case against Sky Beauty. You could easily be right. But her record subsequent to that failed first BC event was so darn good (until she shipped again), that I think it's less certain than you are implying. Jerkens was notorious for not wanting to ship and a LOT of eastern based horses used to run poorly in CA back in those days even before synthetics. The Shug horse also may not have run her best (in fact I think I bet her along with another NY based horse that did not do well in another dirt race)

[GMB@BP]

I agree that both Sky Beauty and Songbird ran in some soft spots, but I don't think that automatically indicates that a horse is not great. It's not the fault of the horse if no one shows up, a specific crop happens to be weak, or if the connections don't go looking around for the greatest challenge every time.

I think most of these horses eventually do get tested a few times. That's when you find out what has been in the tank all along.

For Songbird, I think running Beholder to a nose on a track that played just fine to the outside where Beholder was placed after shaking loose from 2 quality stalkers that tired badly chasing her revealed that a lot of those very handy wins against weaker in slowish times were not an indication that she was overrated. They were an indication that she had plenty in the tank and was only one jump away from beating a sensational and more seasoned older mare with a Grade 1 win over males.

I fully understand your case against Sky Beauty. You could easily be right. But her record subsequent to that failed first BC event was so darn good (until she shipped again), that I think it's less certain than you are implying. Jerkens was notorious for not wanting to ship and a LOT of eastern based horses used to run poorly in CA back in those days even before synthetics. The Shug horse also may not have run her best (in fact I think I bet her along with another NY based horse that did not do well in another dirt race)

ask anyone who was associated with the horse, she did not ship well those two breeders cup, especially the KY one, and was not doing well going into the race. If the race had been in NY I have no doubt she would have been in the race with Hollywood Wildcat and One Dreamer.

[Fager Fan]

ask anyone who was associated with the horse, she did not ship well those two breeders cup, especially the KY one, and was not doing well going into the race. If the race had been in NY I have no doubt she would have been in the race with Hollywood Wildcat and One Dreamer.

Isn't the point that she didn't ship well part of the overall assessment of her? It's a strength of a horse that it can mentally and physically withstand shipping and not have to carry its track with them. It's a weakness of a horse when the opposite is true.

[Spalding No!]

For Songbird, I think running Beholder to a nose on a track that played just fine to the outside where Beholder was placed after shaking loose from 2 quality stalkers that tired badly chasing her revealed that a lot of those very handy wins against weaker in slowish times were not an indication that she was overrated. They were an indication that she had plenty in the tank and was only one jump away from beating a sensational and more seasoned older mare with a Grade 1 win over males.
While I wouldn't go so far as to say her BC effort validated any of her slower performances last year or was evidence of holding something in reserve all along, based on the speed figure and the resolve displayed versus Beholder I felt that she had the potential to move up numbers-wise at 4 (as Sky Beauty did) and more than likely silence the concerns about her overall ability.

After two starts so far this year, that hasn't happened, but there are extenuating circumstances (layoff, shipping cross country, physical issues) that may be delaying any "maturity". But considering her record (nearly unbeaten), she doesn't appear to be one that needs to race to reach top form. Maybe she is simply a high 90 BSF horse and that's that.

But for the Pacific Classic, Beholder was pretty much a "slow" horse, too, but her vast number of accomplishments assure her place in history.

I fully understand your case against Sky Beauty. You could easily be right. But her record subsequent to that failed first BC event was so darn good (until she shipped again), that I think it's less certain than you are implying. Jerkens was notorious for not wanting to ship and a LOT of eastern based horses used to run poorly in CA back in those days even before synthetics. The Shug horse also may not have run her best (in fact I think I bet her along with another NY based horse that did not do well in another dirt race)
The thing that to me contradicts the whole "she can't ship" deal is that Jerkens ducked 3 Grade 1s (Gazelle, Ruffian, Beldame) at Belmont leading up to the BC. Had she run in either the Ruffian or the Beldame--and won--she probably would have clenched the 3yo Eclipse (especially if she beat older champ Paseana who laid an egg in the Ruffian) AND given Jerkens enough ammo to perhaps talk the owner out of shipping to SA for the BC.

Seems curious that they chose a soft prep and the dreaded cross-country ship instead of racking up the accolades in NY (much like Mineshaft did 10 years later). It's also very convenient that her connections chose the Rare Perfume as her prep-race given that her speed figures hit a ceiling while those of fellow 3yos Hollywood Wildcat and Dispute (who ran more than Sky Beauty that year) were on the rise in the fall. Both were able to make the all-important jump of facing older horses with success.

Given that, which was clear to infer on past performances alone, there was nothing shocking whatsoever about her modest 5th in the BC Distaff.

As for the '94 Distaff, that was an obvious meltdown and line can be drawn through it. Given how terrible she looked in the stretch, I'd chalk it up to physical issues (soundness or bleeding), not some aversion to shipping.

[dilanesp]

Thanks, SC. I was pondering some horses and didn't even think of him.

Rachel - 5
Blind Luck - 5
Zenyatta - 4
Serena's Song - 4
Royal Delta - 4
Ruffian - 4
Inside Information - 3
Rags to Riches - 3
Havre de Grace - 3
Sky Beauty - 2
Beholder - 2

If we add in Rachel's G2 wins, she won at 8 different tracks. Adding Ruffian's G3 wins, and she won at 7 different tracks.

Ruffian was really a New York phenomenon, and that sort of thing is quite misleading.

You want to look for east and west, especially prior to Polytrack being invented. California tracks were a LOT different than eastern tracks, and many eastern stars came out here and stunk up the joint, like Kelso and Seattle Slew. Same thing shipping west to east, where Noor and Lava Man and Cutlass Reality stunk.

Winning a bunch of races all on eastern tracks is really not a big accomplishment. Shipping coast-to-coast is (and Dubai, of course, is even bigger).

[Spalding No!]

You want to look for east and west, especially prior to Polytrack being invented. California tracks were a LOT different than eastern tracks, and many eastern stars came out here and stunk up the joint, like Kelso and Seattle Slew. Same thing shipping west to east, where Noor and Lava Man and Cutlass Reality stunk.
This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

[Dahoss9698]

This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

Great post as usual but I'm still trying to get over him basically poo pooing Ruffian.

[dilanesp]

Gulch didn't like the West Coast. Neither did Groovy. Turkoman was OK here but not a superstar. (Similarly you are dead wrong about Cutlass Reality, who was a giant killer here and ordinary in Chicago and Louisville, and merely good in New York.)

Hill Prince wasn't as good out here either. He crushed Noor in NY and got crushed here.


Equipoise didn't like it out here either. Nor did Twenty Grand.

Game on Dude didn't run well outside California.

I never said horses didn't ship. I said shipping coast to coast is a real test, whereas shipping from New York to Monmouth, as Ruffian did, isn't.

And yeah, Ruffian was overrated. Zenyatta is far far better.

[Dahoss9698]

And yeah, Ruffian was overrated. Zenyatta is far far better.
I realize your whole thing is west coast is better and posting silly things to get a reaction, but I'd like to see a reasonable argument on why you think this to be.

How can a filly who was 10 for 10 before breaking down in July of her 3 year old year be overrated? Did she not run fast enough in her races?

[classhandicapper]

While I wouldn't go so far as to say her BC effort validated any of her slower performances last year or was evidence of holding something in reserve all along, based on the speed figure and the resolve displayed versus Beholder I felt that she had the potential to move up numbers-wise at 4 (as Sky Beauty did) and more than likely silence the concerns about her overall ability.

After two starts so far this year, that hasn't happened, but there are extenuating circumstances (layoff, shipping cross country, physical issues) that may be delaying any "maturity". But considering her record (nearly unbeaten), she doesn't appear to be one that needs to race to reach top form. Maybe she is simply a high 90 BSF horse and that's that.

I've been arguing that a lot of fillies mature earlier than the male counterparts and we know that a lot of fillies don't make the turn from one year to the next very well. She may be one of them. I'm willing to give her one more start this year before concluding anything because this last race was at 10F and she may not want to go that far.

But for the Pacific Classic, Beholder was pretty much a "slow" horse, too, but her vast number of accomplishments assure her place in history.

This is where I disagree with a lot of people.

Most horses (especially very fast speed horses) run figures that approximate their level of ability most of the time. Horses that win handily or that close and look look like they had a lot in reserve after the wire typically do so because they got a great trip or ran among much weaker. So when they get tested under tougher circumstances they actually wind up running slower instead of faster.

However, some horses actually do have more in the tank and haven't run faster because the demands of the races have not required it. Races aren't time trials. Horses use each other as prompters. They get in position to win and then only do serious running when required. Sometimes that will not maximize their final time. We see this to an extreme in turf racing, but it happens sometimes on dirt also among great horses and very lightly raced horses.

That's why people throw around the word "test".

The "test" determines whether you are category 1 (most horses) or category 2 (a horse with a little more in the tank than the speed figures indicate).

[Spalding No!]

Gulch didn't like the West Coast.
Yeah, he only won 2 sprints there in 1:08 flat for 6f and a 6.5f stakes in 1:15 flat to go along with two placings in G1s (one to the aforementioned Cutlass Reality). What a disappointment.

Neither did Groovy.
Won the Ancient Title in 1:08 1/5 in his CA debut then 4th in the BC 2 weeks later as a 3yo. Why did they even bother to ship?

(Similarly you are dead wrong about Cutlass Reality, who was a giant killer here and ordinary in Chicago and Louisville, and merely good in New York.)
Nice cover up. You said he went from West to East and failed. No, he was a career long East coaster who found a new lease on life in CA. I wasn't saying he handled both coasts equally, just correcting your blunder.

By the way, his "east coast" efforts in 1988 were a second in the Hawthorne Gold Cup to stalwart Cryptoclearance and the BC Classic won by Alysheba in the mud.

Hill Prince wasn't as good out here either. He crushed Noor in NY and got crushed here.
I never mentioned Hill Prince, but he won his CA debuted easily then got beat in the mud in the Santa Anita Handicap. He was retired 2 days after that race with a leg injury. I'm sure his physical issue had nothing to do with his performance.


Equipoise didn't like it out here either.
Equipoise? Did they even have tracks in CA at the time (the 1930s)?

Of course, Equipoise actually came to CA for the Big Cap, which was touted as the "greatest field" ever assembled. He ran second and then won his two preps but was disqualified in the latter. He then bowed a tendon in the Big Cap itself which was scheduled to be his final start anyways.

Nor did Twenty Grand.
Talk about clutching straws. Twenty Grand was retired before Santa Anita even opened. However, he proved infertile so they put him back in training. He returned to the races over 2 years after his previous race. He ended up the winner of the aforementioned prep in which Equipoise was DQ'd.

Game on Dude didn't run well outside California.
If that's true its probably Kettle Corn and Clubhouse Ride refused to get on the plane with him and he was forced to race against other horses.

Of course, Game on Dude won the Lone Star Derby and Charles Town Classic outside CA and was a decent 4th in the Belmont Stakes in only his 6th career start.

I never said horses didn't ship. I said shipping coast to coast is a real test, whereas shipping from New York to Monmouth, as Ruffian did, isn't.
You made it sound as though winning on both coasts was some sort of rarity, citing only Kelso and Seattle Slew as evidence and failing to mention a single success. I simply fleshed it out.

[Tom]

Through 13 races her record is historically great (cant see how that is arguable) but I dont see real professionals putting her in a class like that.

Aside form the BC, I think she was very much average.
She beat a lot of inferior horses early in her races and came home slow. That is Finger Lakes great.

Anxious to see what her TF fig was last time, to put her in better focus. But I'm not scouring the entries to where she goes next.

Actually same goes for Gun Runner. Nice couple, but no Chick and Di.

[storyline]

Aside form the BC, I think she was very much average.
She beat a lot of inferior horses early in her races and came home slow. That is Finger Lakes great.

Anxious to see what her TF fig was last time, to put her in better focus. But I'm not scouring the entries to where she goes next.

Actually same goes for Gun Runner. Nice couple, but no Chick and Di.



I think it was 121 Tom

[castaway01]

Another example of why you should never debate Spalding...

[classhandicapper]

This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.


I don't have the data on it, but I think it might be worth looking at the record of NY based dirt horses running in the BC before the synthetic era. Coming in and running off the plane is different than a trainer moving a horse west where it has a chance to acclimate or when it's shipped back and forth.

In fact, when NY based horses were running poorly in the BC synthetic era I remember some people making the case that a few big stars ran poorly out there before the synthetic era. So it was hard to pin down how much was synthetic and how much was the more supposedly difficult east to west ship.

[Spalding No!]

I don't have the data on it, but I think it might be worth looking at the record of NY based dirt horses running in the BC before the synthetic era. Coming in and running off the plane is different than a trainer moving a horse west where it has a chance to acclimate or when it's shipped back and forth.
This would be difficult to do because as you said, there's a big difference between running "off the plane" and getting there well in advance of the race. In fact, it's debatable whether one is more ideal than the other (though superficially, one might think its the latter). Even if we had the bare-bone stats on the shippers, we probably wouldn't know which horses were there early and which ones shipped-in only a couple of days before the race.

Personally, unless the acclimation period is months ahead of the game (e.g., Curlin and Chrome in Dubai), I would think that running off the plane is the best approach. Allowing a horse to "acclimate" to a new surface is risky unless it is done gradually. However, in our case, these horses are at the same time actively targeting a specific race so the trainer can't really "back off" to let the horse adjust slowly. Who can forget the air that was let out of the 1997 BC when early arrivals--and morning line favorites-- Singspiel (breezing on the grass) and Formal Gold (routine gallop) both broke down while training at Hollywood Park?

Additionally, horses are at risk for illnesses related to shipping and getting there early only lends more time for bugs to incubate and manifest into a problem before the race.

[classhandicapper]

This would be difficult to do because as you said, there's a big difference between running "off the plane" and getting there well in advance of the race. In fact, it's debatable whether one is more ideal than the other (though superficially, one might think its the latter). Even if we had the bare-bone stats on the shippers, we probably wouldn't know which horses were there early and which ones shipped-in only a couple of days before the race.

Personally, unless the acclimation period is months ahead of the game (e.g., Curlin and Chrome in Dubai), I would think that running off the plane is the best approach. Allowing a horse to "acclimate" to a new surface is risky unless it is done gradually. However, in our case, these horses are at the same time actively targeting a specific race so the trainer can't really "back off" to let the horse adjust slowly. Who can forget the air that was let out of the 1997 BC when early arrivals--and morning line favorites-- Singspiel (breezing on the grass) and Formal Gold (routine gallop) both broke down while training at Hollywood Park?

Additionally, horses are at risk for illnesses related to shipping and getting there early only lends more time for bugs to incubate and manifest into a problem before the race.


Based on gambling experience in high quality races (no hard data), I always thought it was way easier to ship from CA to NY off the plane than the other way around. A lot of guys have done really well coming into NY for as far back as I can remember (which is decades). I've read theories on why it was tougher to go to CA, but that's all speculation.

[cj]

Based on gambling experience in high quality races (no hard data), I always thought it was way easier to ship from CA to NY off the plane than the other way around. A lot of guys have done really well coming into NY for as far back as I can remember (which is decades). I've read theories on why it was tougher to go to CA, but that's all speculation.

In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

The same is also true on turf, the pace is more demanding out west. However, that probably isn't an advantage on turf and more likely is a detriment. Finishing speed tops all on turf and that is lacking in SoCal.

[Fager Fan]

In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

The same is also true on turf, the pace is more demanding out west. However, that probably isn't an advantage on turf and more likely is a detriment. Finishing speed tops all on turf and that is lacking in SoCal.

I'd think the opposite is true. Horses who race and train over deeper, more demanding tracks should feel like life just got easy when their bounce off a harder surface, and vice versa. Same for the humidity factor.

[cj]

I'd think the opposite is true. Horses who race and train over deeper, more demanding tracks should feel like life just got easy when their bounce off a harder surface, and vice versa. Same for the humidity factor.

I don't think that is the opposite, I think it is a different thing altogether.

[SharpCat]

In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

[Dahoss9698]

Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

Or any turf route.

[GMB@BP]

Or any turf route.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[cj]

Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

No doubt, jockeys are probably the biggest reason, and the trainers that give them instructions.

[dilanesp]

Another example of why you should never debate Spalding...

Except I never said that there weren't plenty of horses that passed the test, only that it is a legitimate test.

The pace and jockey issues discussed in this thread are part of the reason why.

[Pine Tree Lane]

Do you remember Revidere, Dahoss?

She ran the very next year after Ruffian. Also by Revidere but not out of the same mare. Owned by the same people, too, Stuart Janney.

Her numbers were equal and often greater than Ruffian's were, by my way of doing speed figures at the time. Just sayin'.

Actually, Revidere was owned by William Haggin Perry. A half to Ruffian, she naturally was overshadowed, but she was extremely talented, missing against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.bshe won the first Ruffian by 14 lengths. If her ankles were ever right she would be near the top of the list of all time fillies/mares.

[castaway01]

Except I never said that there weren't plenty of horses that passed the test, only that it is a legitimate test.

The pace and jockey issues discussed in this thread are part of the reason why.

Listen, no need to argue---just don't debate Spalding. People smarter than you think you are have gotten schooled.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by SharpCat
Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

They ride harder, train harder, and have their horses fIt and race.
Thei why they kic east coast ass so often.

We don't have trainers our here, we have nannies.
5 shoes on Gun Runner was something new, but 2 a-holes on a horse is run of the mill.

[Afleet]

we need a poll Gun Runner vs Arrogate @1 1/8-I'll take Gun Runner

[GMB@BP]

we need a poll Gun Runner vs Arrogate @1 1/8-I'll take Gun Runner

I think there is a better than average chance we see Arrogate versus Gun Runner and it wont be the breeders cup.

[Afleet]

I think there is a better than average chance we see Arrogate versus Gun Runner and it wont be the breeders cup.

Baffert coming for the Woodward?

[GMB@BP]

Baffert coming for the Woodward?

Well see, I know nothing beyond what has been reported but its just a gut feeling.

[Bigadam119]

Arrogate was paddock schooling at Del Mar today. Definitely staying for the Pacific Classic.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

we need a poll Gun Runner vs Arrogate @1 1/8-I'll take Gun Runner

2 back, didn't Arrogate spot Gun Runner 20 lengths and then spanked him?

[GMB@BP]

2 back, didn't Arrogate spot Gun Runner 20 lengths and then spanked him?

wasnt the first time.

there is no circumstance that Gun Runner can ever be thought as a better horse than Arrogate at this point....for that to happen Arrogate would have to return to form, and that is very iffy.

When they both were in form Arrogate drowned him, twice.

[GMB@BP]

Arrogate was paddock schooling at Del Mar today. Definitely staying for the Pacific Classic.

by the way, how did the Baffert runners do this weekend? This meet?

[Pine Tree Lane]

This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

Nor Pine Tree Lane ;)

[Afleet]

2 back, didn't Arrogate spot Gun Runner 20 lengths and then spanked him?

that was then, this is now

[classhandicapper]

Nor Pine Tree Lane ;)

Pine Tree Lane. She was awful fast! #memories

[Dahoss9698]

Bump

[cj]

Bump

Wait, people actually picked Songbird?

[Fager Fan]

Wait, people actually picked Songbird?

She was off in the hind in the post parade. She looked better after warming up. A shame.

[cj]

She was off in the hind in the post parade. She looked better after warming up. A shame.

They were focusing on her on FS2 and didn't hear anyone mention that.

[Dahoss9698]

They were focusing on her on FS2 and didn't hear anyone mention that.

I knew the excuses would be coming. She's a really, really good filly who is massively overrated by cat ladies and internet superstars.

[Dahoss9698]

She was off in the hind in the post parade. She looked better after warming up. A shame.

Tough to concede anything....especially to me, huh?

[SharpCat]

She was off in the hind in the post parade. She looked better after warming up. A shame.

I thought she looked off in the hind end in the post parade as well. She warmed up well, ran a good race just simply got ran down the final 1/8th. Credit to the winner as she finished very strongly the final 1/8th.

[Tom]

Change this to Arrogate vs Songbird.

[cj]

Change this to Arrogate vs Songbird.

Post of the day.

[classhandicapper]

I haven't changed my opinion of Songbird one iota. She was terrific 3yo filly early in the year last year that did not develop a lot late and has not only not gone forward at 4, she's taken a step backwards. Both of those are not unusual for fillies.

She ran well though.

Forever Unbridled is a solid multiple Grade 1 winner.

[Dahoss9698]

Interesting no one saw fit to mention she looked off in the post parade until AFTER the race. :lol:

[dilanesp]

That was a horrible performance by Songbird. Easy trip, slow pace, 4 horse field, gets beat.

[classhandicapper]

That was a horrible performance by Songbird. Easy trip, slow pace, 4 horse field, gets beat.

She had an easy trip, but she's a rateble filly. I don't think she moves up much or at all when she's loose and Saratoga routes tend to not be particularly kind to speed on some days. Forever Unbridled was clearly best, but she could turn out to be the best mare in the country before it's over.

[Spalding No!]

That was a horrible performance by Songbird. Easy trip, slow pace, 4 horse field, gets beat.
Had there been a little more heat up front in last year's BC Distaff, Forever Unbridled might have been working on a 4-race win streak. She made a threatening move at Beholder-Songbird in mid stretch and just didn't quite follow through.

Its clear (if it wasn't already from her speed figures and her BC Distaff) that Songbird was indeed overrated. However, saying she ran horrible or Maggie Wolfendale with her inexplicable "should Mr. Hollendorfer continue on with her?" post-race question to Mike Smith after getting beat in the shadow of the wire in a Grade1 $700K race in my opinion is more reactionary than those who bestowed her with world-beater status for drowning the weak 3yo filly division last year.

[dilanesp]

Had there been a little more heat up front in last year's BC Distaff, Forever Unbridled might have been working on a 4-race win streak. She made a threatening move at Beholder-Songbird in mid stretch and just didn't quite follow through.

Its clear (if it wasn't already from her speed figures and her BC Distaff) that Songbird was indeed overrated. However, saying she ran horrible or Maggie Wolfendale with her inexplicable "should Mr. Hollendorfer continue on with her?" post-race question to Mike Smith after getting beat in the shadow of the wire in a Grade1 $700K race in my opinion is more reactionary than those who bestowed her with world-beater status for drowning the weak 3yo filly division last year.

It was horrible. How much would she have lost by had she faced any pace pressure?

And yes, Forever Unbridled is the real deal.

[Spalding No!]

It was horrible. How much would she have lost by had she faced any pace pressure?
That's presuming you think she's a one dimensional need-the-lead type and that Mike Smith would be stupid enough to engage in a protracted duel from the outset.

In at least 3 of her 8 races last year, she had no problem settling in second behind horses committed to the lead. Who knows? Maybe the presence of a speed ball would have aided Songbird by giving her a target to run at, while possibly goading Rosario into moving Forever Unbridled too early if he thought Songbird might get the jump on him.

[cj]

I'm not sure how anyone could think that race was awful. The time was good and she got beat by a really good mare by a small distance. It is probably her best race of the year, just happened to come in defeat.

[GMB@BP]

I'm not sure how anyone could think that race was awful. The time was good and she got beat by a really good mare by a small distance. It is probably her best race of the year, just happened to come in defeat.

well when the notion is that your not very good going in and then you get beat what do you think the responses are going to be?

[dilanesp]

That's presuming you think she's a one dimensional need-the-lead type and that Mike Smith would be stupid enough to engage in a protracted duel from the outset.

In at least 3 of her 8 races last year, she had no problem settling in second behind horses committed to the lead. Who knows? Maybe the presence of a speed ball would have aided Songbird by giving her a target to run at, while possibly goading Rosario into moving Forever Unbridled too early if he thought Songbird might get the jump on him.

The easiest possible trip is a slow pace on the lead all alone in a small field.

[cj]

The easiest possible trip is a slow pace on the lead all alone in a small field.

I doubt the pace was really slow, but I'll figure that out later.

Small fields make it easier for those coming from behind, no traffic.

[classhandicapper]

To me this whole debate about how good she is or was is silly.

IMO, when you evaluate 2yos and 3yos you shouldn't evaluate them relative to the best horses in the country. You should evaluate them relative to other 2yos and 3yos at a similar stage in their development.

Songbird was ridiculously brilliant early in her career. She crushed the BC Juvenile Filly against a pretty strong field and earned a Beyer figure of 99 (for those that insist on numbers) with plenty left in the tank. That's huge. That's why there was so much hype. People were projecting typical improvement (but it's not always a guarantee to come).

The issue wound up being her rate of development. She may have gotten a little better at 3, but not much. So other fillies closed the gap and those that were fully mature were right with her. Horses like Beholder (who was a champion older horse) was better. Now at 4 she's probably not even as good as she was at 3, let alone developed further. If you are figure based I think she got a 97 or 98 yesterday, that's slower than her Juvenile where she won with something left in the tank.

I just don't see this as a very complicated or unclear. Some young horses explode forward at 3 or 4 and others don't develop much. In her case the initial hype was fully justified, but she did not develop much further.

[GMB@BP]

To me this whole debate about how good she is or was is silly.

IMO, when you evaluate 2yos and 3yos you shouldn't evaluate them relative to the best horses in the country. You should evaluate them relative to other 2yos and 3yos at a similar stage in their development.

Songbird was ridiculously brilliant early in her career. She crushed the BC Juvenile Filly against a pretty strong field and earned a Beyer figure of 99 (for those that insist on numbers) with plenty left in the tank. That's huge. That's why there was so much hype. People were projecting typical improvement (but it's not always a guarantee to come).

The issue wound up being her rate of development. She may have gotten a little better at 3, but not much. So other fillies closed the gap and those that were fully mature were right with her. Horses like Beholder (who was a champion older horse) was better. Now at 4 she's probably not even as good as she was at 3, let alone developed further. If you are figure based I think she got a 97 or 98 yesterday, that's slower than her Juvenile where she won with something left in the tank.

I just don't see this as a very complicated or unclear. Some young horses explode forward at 3 or 4 and others don't develop much. In her case the initial hype was fully justified, but she did not develop much further.

There just are a lot of people that dont think she is very good and is overrated. Not sure why, her career has been the envy of just about anyone who has owned a race horse. A dirty nose loss to beholder or were not even having this conversation.

At this point you have to wonder whatever minor injury she had earlier this year is having a more long term affect than is known cause its certainly apparent on the track.

[Dahoss9698]

To me this whole debate about how good she is or was is silly.

IMO, when you evaluate 2yos and 3yos you shouldn't evaluate them relative to the best horses in the country. You should evaluate them relative to other 2yos and 3yos at a similar stage in their development.

Songbird was ridiculously brilliant early in her career. She crushed the BC Juvenile Filly against a pretty strong field and earned a Beyer figure of 99 (for those that insist on numbers) with plenty left in the tank. That's huge. That's why there was so much hype. People were projecting typical improvement (but it's not always a guarantee to come).

The issue wound up being her rate of development. She may have gotten a little better at 3, but not much. So other fillies closed the gap and those that were fully mature were right with her. Horses like Beholder (who was a champion older horse) was better. Now at 4 she's probably not even as good as she was at 3, let alone developed further. If you are figure based I think she got a 97 or 98 yesterday, that's slower than her Juvenile where she won with something left in the tank.

I just don't see this as a very complicated or unclear. Some young horses explode forward at 3 or 4 and others don't develop much. In her case the initial hype was fully justified, but she did not develop much further.

The 2015 Juvenile Fillies field was pretty strong? Based on what?

[Dahoss9698]

There just are a lot of people that dont think she is very good and is overrated. Not sure why, her career has been the envy of just about anyone who has owned a race horse. A dirty nose loss to beholder or were not even having this conversation.

At this point you have to wonder whatever minor injury she had earlier this year is having a more long term affect than is known cause its certainly apparent on the track.

Oh here we go. Making stuff up, and the "who wouldn't want to own her" nonsense. Come on man...you're better than that.

No one has said she is not very good. I haven't seen one single person say that, not one. In fact, just the opposite. Her "haters" have sung her praises, they just didn't agree that she's an all timer. People have been overrating her because of her record. Some people disagreed and I would think those people were vindicated yesterday.

I've seen plenty of excuses for her not winning yesterday, but I've seen very few people just say "I was wrong, she's not as good as I thought."

Why is that?

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm a fan of Songbird...i love the way she runs.
Gets out there and throws down; come get me.
Never runs a bad one, even though she's now lost twice.

As for her place in history...whaaaatever...
She hasn't duplicated her 3yr old form yet in three tries this year, so I can't even begin to rank her anywhere on some sort of all time list.
I know she's better than Ashado though LOL

[GMB@BP]

Oh here we go. Making stuff up, and the "who wouldn't want to own her" nonsense. Come on man...you're better than that.

No one has said she is not very good. I haven't seen one single person say that, not one. In fact, just the opposite. Her "haters" have sung her praises, they just didn't agree that she's an all timer. People have been overrating her because of her record. Some people disagreed and I would think those people were vindicated yesterday.

I've seen plenty of excuses for her not winning yesterday, but I've seen very few people just say "I was wrong, she's not as good as I thought."

Why is that?

I dont like the way she was ridden, but maybe she doest have the speed she used to. speed horses running slow fractions, turns it into turf races.

if she doesnt have it, then she doesnt have it and it is what it is.

[Dahoss9698]

I dont like the way she was ridden, but maybe she doest have the speed she used to. speed horses running slow fractions, turns it into turf races.

if she doesnt have it, then she doesnt have it and it is what it is.

Or maybe she's not as good as you want her to be.

[dilanesp]

There just are a lot of people that dont think she is very good and is overrated. Not sure why, her career has been the envy of just about anyone who has owned a race horse. A dirty nose loss to beholder or were not even having this conversation.

At this point you have to wonder whatever minor injury she had earlier this year is having a more long term affect than is known cause its certainly apparent on the track.

I think she was amazing at 2 and 3. Her record speaks for itself.

But at this point she isn't that great.

[GMB@BP]

Or maybe she's not as good as you want her to be.

she is alright, right there with beholder, who aint a bad horse if i am not mistaken

[GMB@BP]

I think she was amazing at 2 and 3. Her record speaks for itself.

But at this point she isn't that great.

This is how I see it. I dont get why some people were doing cartwheels when she lost to beholder and then yesterday. Its kinda like the Zenyatta thing all over again, except this horses campaign has been kinda out of this world difficult over her 3 seasons.

[Fager Fan]

she is alright, right there with beholder, who aint a bad horse if i am not mistaken

Seriously. I don't know what the game is here. It's all a matter of semantics, good, great, just how good or great. Maybe we should start a racing scale, so we can be more specific to meet some people's liking. How about a scale of 1 to 10, using 10ths. Since none have been perfect, no horse gets a 10. Fager, Sec, etc are all in the high 9 fractions. A single G1 type winner is a 5. Therefore I'll put Songbird in the low 8s, I guess. How's that?

[classhandicapper]

The 2015 Juvenile Fillies field was pretty strong? Based on what?

At the time Rachel's Valentina and Tap To It were highly regarded prospects & a few others had the typical record of lightly raced 2yo fillies. Admittedly, not many from the group went on and developed into anything, but that was the whole point of my post.

There's no magic formula that tells you if a young horses is going to develop, when, or by how much. You judge them relative to their peers and the typical level of performance you can expect from that age/sex. Then you see where they go later.

IMO Songbird was justifiably hyped off her 2yo form. She was brilliant at 2. Then she did not develop as much as hoped as her 3yo season went on.

Unique Bella may or may not be a similar case. People are justifiably very high on Unique Bella also. If she doesn't go forward from where she left off, she'll be mediocre relative to the older fillies by the end of the year. If she jumps up more in line with typical development she might be the favorite to win the Distaff. But at this point, to me, it's obvious she as been special to date & the hype is justified. Now we are waiting to see how she comes back.

[Dahoss9698]

she is alright, right there with beholder, who aint a bad horse if i am not mistaken

No she's not. No way the end of last year Beholder was indicative of her true ability. The 2015 Beholder beats her by open lengths.

[Dahoss9698]

Seriously. I don't know what the game is here. It's all a matter of semantics, good, great, just how good or great. Maybe we should start a racing scale, so we can be more specific to meet some people's liking. How about a scale of 1 to 10, using 10ths. Since none have been perfect, no horse gets a 10. Fager, Sec, etc are all in the high 9 fractions. A single G1 type winner is a 5. Therefore I'll put Songbird in the low 8s, I guess. How's that?

Still waiting for something, anything pre race from you little man.

[Dahoss9698]

This is how I see it. I dont get why some people were doing cartwheels when she lost to beholder and then yesterday. Its kinda like the Zenyatta thing all over again, except this horses campaign has been kinda out of this world difficult over her 3 seasons.

Here we go with the fanatic talk....her campaigns have been out of this world difficult?

She's faced males zero times, missed the Kentucky Oaks, faced older females once and has avoided Vale Dori and Stellar Wind three times this year.

[Dahoss9698]

At the time Rachel's Valentina and Tap To It were highly regarded prospects & a few others had the typical record of lightly raced 2yo fillies. Admittedly, not many from the group went on and developed into anything, but that was the whole point of my post.

There's no magic formula that tells you if a young horses is going to develop, when, or by how much. You judge them relative to their peers and the typical level of performance you can expect from that age/sex. Then you see where they go later.

IMO Songbird was justifiably hyped off her 2yo form. She was brilliant at 2. Then she did not develop as much as hoped as her 3yo season went on.

Unique Bella may or may not be a similar case. People are justifiably very high on Unique Bella also. If she doesn't go forward from where she left off, she'll be mediocre relative to the older fillies by the end of the year. If she jumps up more in line with typical development she might be the favorite to win the Distaff. But at this point, to me, it's obvious she as been special to date & the hype is justified. Now we are waiting to see how she comes back.

So it wasn't a strong field, right?

[classhandicapper]

This is how I see it. I dont get why some people were doing cartwheels when she lost to beholder and then yesterday. Its kinda like the Zenyatta thing all over again, except this horses campaign has been kinda out of this world difficult over her 3 seasons.

It's called confirmation bias.

People start with an opinion, look at all the data and evidence as it comes in, and then interpret it to fit that original opinion.

She had an easy trip and lost by a neck to multiple Grade 1 winning horse with upside that missed by a little over a length to a multiple year champion like Beholder in last year's BC Distaff. So now she's a dog with fleas.

At this stage of her career she's neither a super filly nor a dog with fleas, but she's had a great career and it's very understandable why people were so high on her based on her early form.

[classhandicapper]

So it wasn't a strong field, right?

You don't seem to get the point.

There's never been a Kentucky Derby that was really strong by Breeder's Cup standards, but plenty of them were weak/strong by Derby standards with no guarantee as to if, when, and how much the horses were going to develop.

I think it's appropriate to judge the Derby by Derby standards and watch where the horses go as an independent thing.

I see nothing weak about that Juvenile Filly race.

There were some solid prospects going into it, the race was formful, and the race came up really fast.

[Dahoss9698]

You don't seem to get the point.

There's never been a Kentucky Derby that was really strong by Breeder's Cup standards, but plenty of them were weak/strong by Derby standards with no guarantee as to if, when, and how much the horses were going to develop.

I think it's appropriate to judge the Derby by Derby standards and watch where the horses go as an independent thing.

I see nothing weak about that Juvenile Filly race.

There were some solid prospects going into it, the race was formful, and the race came up really fast.

I do get the point. You said it was a strong field. It wasn't going in and certainly wasn't as we look at it now and you're another blowhard who can't admit when you're wrong, who also never has a pre race opinion but are an expert after.

I've seen all this before and I'm bored with it now. Have a nice day.

[Dahoss9698]

This is eerily similar to the Zenyatta nonsense. Fanboys had egg on their face then and could make an omelet after yesterday.

But not one of them can admit anything. It was the ride, she was off in the paddock, she's had tough campaigns, etc.

All to avoid having to admit she's not an all timer. A very, very good filly that would get beaten soundly by the fillies I mentioned a month ago. :lol:

[Fager Fan]

Still waiting for something, anything pre race from you little man.

Please DO hold your breath.

[Spalding No!]

The evidence that Songbird's BC Juvenile Fillies was a strong race was the final time. As she did in the Chandelier (the same day as the Frontrunner) at Santa Anita, she outperformed fellow unbeaten 2yo champion and subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist by over a full second.

The caveat is that the 2yo Nyquist is not the same as the 3yo Nyquist (at least the "spring" version of Nyquist). Based on speed figures, Nyquist developed a lot over the winter. Additionally, Nyquist had a tougher trip in his BC race.

[Fager Fan]

blowhard.

Someone pass this guy a mirror.

[GMB@BP]

Seriously. I don't know what the game is here. It's all a matter of semantics, good, great, just how good or great. Maybe we should start a racing scale, so we can be more specific to meet some people's liking. How about a scale of 1 to 10, using 10ths. Since none have been perfect, no horse gets a 10. Fager, Sec, etc are all in the high 9 fractions. A single G1 type winner is a 5. Therefore I'll put Songbird in the low 8s, I guess. How's that?

sounds about right

[Dahoss9698]

The evidence that Songbird's BC Juvenile Fillies was a strong race was the final time. As she did in the Chandelier (the same day as the Frontrunner) at Santa Anita, she outperformed fellow unbeaten 2yo champion and subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist by over a full second.

The caveat is that the 2yo Nyquist is not the same as the 3yo Nyquist (at least the "spring" version of Nyquist). Based on speed figures, Nyquist developed a lot over the winter. Additionally, Nyquist had a tougher trip in his BC race.

He said a strong field....not strong race. Obviously it was a strong race. But there was little behind her.

[Dahoss9698]

Please DO hold your breath.

I didn't think so.

[Dahoss9698]

Someone pass this guy a mirror.

I just love that I'm so under your skin. :jump::jump::jump:

You never answered, how was your swim?

[Fager Fan]

I didn't think so.

I didn't think so either. I said way back I'm not a gambler. So you be proud that you are, and you post away with your picks. I won't see them because I couldn't possibly care less.

Capiche?

Mr. Internet

[Fager Fan]

I just love that I'm so under your skin. :jump::jump::jump:

You never answered, how was your swim?

It could've been more enjoyable if you were there. Floating face down.

Mr. Internet

[classhandicapper]

I do get the point. You said it was a strong field. It wasn't going in and certainly wasn't as we look at it now


How horses coming out of a race can tell us multiple things.

It can capture that a race was stronger or weaker than the official class designation/speed figure or it can capture RANDOM development or lack thereof that has nothing to do with the strength of the field at that time.

Songbird looked like a potential killer going into that race and Rachel's Valentina was 2 for 2 with a win in the Spinaway over Tap To It who also had a very impressive debut and was then 2nd to RV in the Spinaway. The top 2 ran 1-2 and the speed figure for the race was above PAR for the juvenile filly.

If the top few finishers in a race looked good going in, the race is faster than PAR, and it's formful, how can it be anything other than above average.

If you don't like the word "strong" because it's wasn't super deep, let's call it above average.

That Rachel's Valentina and Tap To It did not eventually develop into top 3yo fillies and had early retirements says more about their lack of development or possibly soundness than how good they were in that snapshot of time as very lightly raced 2yo fillies. They did not develop and were quickly retired. Had they had "standard" development you might have a different opinion about the strength of that race. That has been my point all along.

[classhandicapper]

All to avoid having to admit she's not an all timer. A very, very good filly that would get beaten soundly by the fillies I mentioned a month ago. :lol:

I'm not sure where this is coming from given that either earlier in this thread or another I was hammering home that so far this year she didn't look anywhere near as good as last year, let alone develop further, and was very likely to get beat by the fillies in CA. I think I even mentioned Forever Unbridled as someone that could move past her also.

The development theme I've been pounding on today is simply an explanation for why she was so highly regarded early on. She was well above average early on and it looked like there was more in the tank. People were projecting the normal improvement that would have made her an "all timer" if it occurred. That normal development did not come. She developed a small bit last year (which was still good enough to dominate her own division) and took a small step back this year.

To be honest, I don't think I've heard anyone call her an all time great filly. I bet against her with Forever Unbridled last year even though I was saying I thought she had a little more in the tank than she was showing (and I think she showed that in defeat)

[GMB@BP]

To be honest, I don't think I've heard anyone call her an all time great filly.

no one ever has, its FAKE NEWS

I have no idea anyone that was claiming she was anything more than a very exceptional filly, obviously that has not been as good this year.

The hate, dont get it at all. That was my Zenyatta comment, that hate for her was real from a small but loud contingent.

[classhandicapper]

no one ever has, its FAKE NEWS

I have no idea anyone that was claiming she was anything more than a very exceptional filly, obviously that has not been as good this year.

The hate, dont get it at all. That was my Zenyatta comment, that hate for her was real from a small but loud contingent.

I agree.

I think it's the same phenomenon we are seeing in US politics now. People form opinions and then somehow get so emotionally tied to them it turns into venom towards the opposition with very few being able to see clearly (in his case about horses).

[Dahoss9698]

It could've been more enjoyable if you were there. Floating face down.

Mr. Internet

Wishing death on me? Because I disagree with you?

:lol::lol::lol:

How's it feel to be my bitch?

[Dahoss9698]

no one ever has, its FAKE NEWS

I have no idea anyone that was claiming she was anything more than a very exceptional filly, obviously that has not been as good this year.

The hate, dont get it at all. That was my Zenyatta comment, that hate for her was real from a small but loud contingent.

Sad to see you resort to this stupidity. No one has ever said she was an all time filly? Really?

In this very thread Fager Fraud called him all time. Go on twitter...lots of people are.

No one hates her. Geez man....get a grip

[Fager Fan]

no one ever has, its FAKE NEWS

I have no idea anyone that was claiming she was anything more than a very exceptional filly, obviously that has not been as good this year.

The hate, dont get it at all. That was my Zenyatta comment, that hate for her was real from a small but loud contingent.

No one's said it, at least not here.

As for the hate, just look at the source. He's in a fight with 4 different people here (or maybe more). He's just hateful.

[Dahoss9698]

I think it's fair that to say she's a historic female. Don't know until the fat lady sings where she stacks up against the others, but always hated the comparison to Ruffian. No filly has come close to doing what Ruffian did.

But 9 G1 wins and winning 13 of 14 isn't easy regardless of competition. If it was, we'd have a lot more to do it because the competition is always light in one division or another every year. The competition for Arrogate isn't all that either. For him, it's how he's winning, not who he beat.

No one's said it, at least not here.

As for the hate, just look at the source. He's in a fight with 4 different people here (or maybe more). He's just hateful.

You said she was a historic female, no? Now who's playing semantics? All time great and historic are pretty similar, no?

Face it, there's a reason you don't bet. You're a little coward. Tough in front of your keyboard but a sissy in real life. Who watches workouts for a living but doesn't bet?

[Dahoss9698]

He's just hateful.

Says the coward that wished death on me :lol::lol::lol:

[Fager Fan]

You said she was a historic female, no? Now who's playing semantics? All time great and historic are pretty similar, no?

She's a two-time champ. She's going into the HOF. That makes her historic. I can't help you can't understand something so elementary. I never used all-time, which means different in my book.

Face it, there's a reason you don't bet. You're a little coward. Tough in front of your keyboard but a sissy in real life. Who watches workouts for a living but doesn't bet?

Boy, that makes a lot of sense. Bravery is what makes one a gambler. Right. Is there a Non-Gambler's Anonymous that I've never heard about?

Do you really know so little about racing to not know for what reasons one would watch works that has zero to do with handicapping?

[Dahoss9698]

She's a two-time champ. She's going into the HOF. That makes her historic. I can't help you can't understand something so elementary. I never used all-time, which means different in my book.



Boy, that makes a lot of sense. Bravery is what makes one a gambler. Right. Is there a Non-Gambler's Anonymous that I've never heard about?

Do you really know so little about racing to not know for what reasons one would watch works that has zero to do with handicapping?

If you had any confidence in your eye, you'd be able to make money when the horses run, no?

Face it....you're full of it. I knew it months ago and more than me do now.

[Dahoss9698]

Here's my guess....Fager Fraud was born on 3rd base but is convinced he hit a triple.

Daddy let's him pick out some horses for him and he thinks he's Steve Young because of it.

Did I mention he's a cowardly sissy?

[PaceAdvantage]

Dahoss, this was the post you were complaining about in another thread? :lol:

You present yourself as tougher than that, don't you?

You push people to the edge and then wonder why they don't like you?

You don't need me to help you out, and yet you blast me on another thread for letting someone "wish death" on you here....which is a little overboard if you ask me.

If you dish it out, you have to take it as well, don't you think?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Dahoss, this was the post you were complaining about in another thread? :lol:

You present yourself as tougher than that, don't you?

You push people to the edge and then wonder why they don't like you?

You don't need me to help you out, and yet you blast me on another thread for letting someone "wish death" on you here....which is a little overboard if you ask me.

If you dish it out, you have to take it as well, don't you think?

I got a small board to manage. Can't compete with this! Mike let em have it! Best horse board of all time. Pretenders come on board to be shot down like clay pigeons!

[burnsy]

This is how I see it. I dont get why some people were doing cartwheels when she lost to beholder and then yesterday. Its kinda like the Zenyatta thing all over again, except this horses campaign has been kinda out of this world difficult over her 3 seasons.

I did cartwheels the other day..............I bet a bunch on Forever Unbridled. I posted my selections, it was the only single of my day. Here's the thing, her last race was no where close to last years form and the other horse is razor sharp right now, Forever Unbridled went the over land route and still inhaled her foes for lunch.

I love the arguments about semantics.......best, historical, all time great and all the other garbage that has zero to do with betting.....and winning. One guy sits here fighting about it and admits he doesn't gamble......I wish he did :lol:. None of that crap wins horse races or money at the window. About 90% of it is hyperbole and exaggeration.

Tough campaign my ass, she ran against horses that really are not much until the Breeders Cup and then Saturday............0-2.

Zenyatta won and placed in one of the toughest races in the world at a classic distance.......night and day my friend.

People that engage in this "the best ever talk", usually need a good dose of perspective. Somehow, people that bet against these horses are branded "haters".....which is hilarious because in reality they are people that know how to cash a nice ticket from time to time.

That race was a 20 mph softball served up over the plate with a $6.20 return in a 4 horse field. While people bitch about whose the best ever and all the other crap......calling people "haters".....I just want to know who is going to be there at the wire. And this horse had "vulnerable" written all over it. I love the horse, doesn't mean I have to bet on her.

[Dahoss9698]

I got a small board to manage. Can't compete with this! Mike let em have it! Best horse board of all time. Pretenders come on board to be shot down like clay pigeons!

My second favorite drunk poster and favorite redboarder.

[Dahoss9698]

Dahoss, this was the post you were complaining about in another thread? :lol:

You present yourself as tougher than that, don't you?

You push people to the edge and then wonder why they don't like you?

You don't need me to help you out, and yet you blast me on another thread for letting someone "wish death" on you here....which is a little overboard if you ask me.

If you dish it out, you have to take it as well, don't you think?

Of course I don't need your help, but i figured even I've never wished death upon someone. I pushed him to the edge? Because I disagreed with him? Because I pointed out he's wrong and echoed what you said months ago.....that he can't concede even when he's wrong?

Of course I expect to take it and have. I've been called names with nothing done, and now worse. Two sets of rules and since I posted in off topic you got your panties in a twist.

But good to know we're back to having no boundaries here. This is going to get fun.

[Dahoss9698]

I did cartwheels the other day..............I bet a bunch on Forever Unbridled. I posted my selections, it was the only single of my day. Here's the thing, her last race was no where close to last years form and the other horse is razor sharp right now, Forever Unbridled went the over land route and still inhaled her foes for lunch.

I love the arguments about semantics.......best, historical, all time great and all the other garbage that has zero to do with betting.....and winning. One guy sits here fighting about it and admits he doesn't gamble......I wish he did :lol:. None of that crap wins horse races or money at the window. About 90% of it is hyperbole and exaggeration.

Tough campaign my ass, she ran against horses that really are not much until the Breeders Cup and then Saturday............0-2.

Zenyatta won and placed in one of the toughest races in the world at a classic distance.......night and day my friend.

People that engage in this "the best ever talk", usually need a good dose of perspective. Somehow, people that bet against these horses are branded "haters".....which is hilarious because in reality they are people that know how to cash a nice ticket from time to time.

That race was a 20 mph softball served up over the plate with a $6.20 return in a 4 horse field. While people bitch about whose the best ever and all the other crap......calling people "haters".....I just want to know who is going to be there at the wire. And this horse had "vulnerable" written all over it. I love the horse, doesn't mean I have to bet on her.

Solid post. I guess when you're a little bitch who doesn't bet, winning an internet arguement on semantics is really all you've got.

The haters stuff comes out anytime someone doesn't agree with hyperbole. Ill own it every time.

[Fager Fan]

Solid post. I guess when you're a little bitch who doesn't bet, winning an internet arguement on semantics is really all you've got.

The haters stuff comes out anytime someone doesn't agree with hyperbole. Ill own it every time.

What does "Gun Runner versus Songbird" have to do with betting? Nothing. What does all your talk about whether she's an all-time great or overrated have to do with betting? Nothing. Not all discussion here is about betting, though you and Burnsy are free to just engage in betting discussions. You wouldn't want to start a thread about a non-existent matchup though in that case.

Mr. Internet

[Dahoss9698]

What does "Gun Runner versus Songbird" have to do with betting? Nothing. What does all your talk about whether she's an all-time great or overrated have to do with betting? Nothing. Not all discussion here is about betting, though you and Burnsy are free to just engage in betting discussions. You wouldn't want to start a thread about a non-existent matchup though in that case.

Mr. Internet

You're a bitch.

[Dahoss9698]

Here's my guess....Fager Fraud was born on 3rd base but is convinced he hit a triple.

Daddy let's him pick out some horses for him and he thinks he's Steve Young because of it.

Did I mention he's a cowardly sissy?

For the record...obviously I was right about this.

I'd love a chance to meet up with Fager Fraud at the Sales like he suggested last week. Let me know when and where bitch.

[Fager Fan]

She was off in the hind in the post parade. She looked better after warming up. A shame.

For my good buddy, Dahoss, from DRF:

Meanwhile, Songbird will be evaluated by Dr. Larry Bramlage at the Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky. on Monday, her owner, Rick Porter, said Sunday.

“I just want him to go over her,” Porter said. “A number of good horsemen told me they thought she was definitely off behind in the post parade. It got better as she warmed up. Someone sent me a video and it is clear. I don’t think she’s the same Songbird.”


lol.

Hugs and kisses,

Mr. Internet

[cj]

For my good buddy, Dahoss, from DRF:

Meanwhile, Songbird will be evaluated by Dr. Larry Bramlage at the Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky. on Monday, her owner, Rick Porter, said Sunday.

“I just want him to go over her,” Porter said. “A number of good horsemen told me they thought she was definitely off behind in the post parade. It got better as she warmed up. Someone sent me a video and it is clear. I don’t think she’s the same Songbird.”


lol.665

Hugs and kisses,

Mr. Internet

Sure, because they think she is Ruffian.

[Dahoss9698]

For my good buddy, Dahoss, from DRF:

Meanwhile, Songbird will be evaluated by Dr. Larry Bramlage at the Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky. on Monday, her owner, Rick Porter, said Sunday.

“I just want him to go over her,” Porter said. “A number of good horsemen told me they thought she was definitely off behind in the post parade. It got better as she warmed up. Someone sent me a video and it is clear. I don’t think she’s the same Songbird.”


lol.

Hugs and kisses,

Mr. Internet

Excuse after excuse for getting beat a neck. :lol:

Was Hollendorfer there on Saturday? How about asst. trainers? No one noticed it in the paddock? No one picked up on anything being wrong beforehand in training, galloping?

Also, you missed a real opportunity to make some money apparently. Too bad you're too chicken shit to bet.

[Dahoss9698]

Rood and Riddle will find out there's nothing wrong with her other than she has women that own 35 cats and chicken shit non bettors like Fager Fraud overestimating her talent.

But IMO she'll be retired. Lots of hurt egos after she was shown to be not the super filly so many want her to be.

[Dahoss9698]

Hollendorfer thought she came out of the race fine. Owner has a hurt ego. Hollendorfer, a HOF trainer, would run a horse who looked off in the paddock?

How did he miss something all these nameless people saw?

[Dahoss9698]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/223303/songbird-in-good-shape-after-personal-ensign-defeat

Trainer and asst trainer a lot more gracious than Mr Bow Tie. Since she was beat something must be wrong. The only thing wrong is their opinion of how good she is. Porter doesn't think she's okay because she doesn't let horses pass her. :lol::lol::lol:

[dilanesp]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/223303/songbird-in-good-shape-after-personal-ensign-defeat

Trainer and asst trainer a lot more gracious than Mr Bow Tie. Since she was beat something must be wrong. The only thing wrong is their opinion of how good she is. Porter doesn't think she's okay because she doesn't let horses pass her. :lol::lol::lol:

This is just human nature, Dahoss.

I'll use a political example (and please, let's not launch into a big debate over the election!). Hillary Clinton was, by all accounts, the favorite to win the election last year, and she lost.

It's entirely possible that there was nothing wrong with Hillary's campaign. She won the popular vote by 3 million votes, according to polls she won all the debates, she made the attacks against Trump that, according to the polls, were the most effective ones, and she ran on a similar platform to Obama, who had won the last two presidential elections easily.

But it is human nature when you lose, especially when you are a big favorite, to think there's a cause. And obviously, again, without getting into details, post-election discussions have focused on any number of causes, from problems with the candidate to outside events and forces.

The thing is, if you go into one of those political discussions on twitter or some political site's comments thread and make the first argument-- that nothing really went wrong, she just got beat-- you will get pilloried by people saying that this or that thing caused the defeat. People just don't accept the argument that a big favorite can lose and there isn't some "cause" of the defeat.

So I don't endorse what Songbird's owners are doing, but it is totally natural to do it. She's only lost two races, and the first one was a photo finish to one of the great racemares of the last 40 years. So this is the first real "loss", and they are wondering what's wrong. That may be irrational, but it's what humans do.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You're a bitch.

You gotta go. Seriously?

[Dahoss9698]

You gotta go. Seriously?

He posted he would like if I drowned in a pool. Did you miss that?

Besides, what are you doing posting during the day? Aren't you more of a 3 am, drunk poster?

[CincyHorseplayer]

He posted he would like if I drowned in a pool. Did you miss that?

Besides, what are you doing posting during the day? Aren't you more of a 3 am, drunk poster?

You're an idiot. I did miss the drowning thing. But who gives a shit? You are trying to nail down my virtues and vices and you are always acting like an asshole. FU!:headbanger:

[Dahoss9698]

You're an idiot. I did miss the drowning thing. But who gives a shit? You are trying to nail down my virtues and vices and you are always acting like an asshole. FU!:headbanger:

Maybe you shouldn't play board cop....especially since you've been banned for your drunk posting, k?

Stick to redboards.

[Fager Fan]

He posted he would like if I drowned in a pool. Did you miss that?

Besides, what are you doing posting during the day? Aren't you more of a 3 am, drunk poster?

So how many people are you fighting with?

Keep asking me how my swim went with an 8yo, and that's the answer you're going to eventually get. I let my neighbors use my pool. I get along with my neighbors, they're friends. I'm sure that's a foreign concept to you.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Maybe you shouldn't play board cop....especially since you've been banned for your drunk posting, k?

Stick to redboards.

Forget this. We're horseplayers. Get on a selection thread, play, and have some fun! This conversation we're having is worthless. Not life serving at all. You think you know me. You don't know shit!

[Dahoss9698]

So how many people are you fighting with?

Keep asking me how my swim went with an 8yo, and that's the answer you're going to eventually get. I let my neighbors use my pool. I get along with my neighbors, they're friends. I'm sure that's a foreign concept to you.

You've taken it to another level twice with your name calling and wishing death on me. Not my fault you bragged about your time with 8 year olds. You said it, not me. I was merely asking how your swim went.

It's cool though. I'll be banned when PA decides to pay attention again and you'll always be a coward who doesn't bet and acts like a big shot on the internet.

I'm VERY impressed.

How's that upper lip of yours smelling?

[Fager Fan]

You've taken it to another level twice with your name calling and wishing death on me. Not my fault you bragged about your time with 8 year olds. You said it, not me. I was merely asking how your swim went.

It's cool though. I'll be banned when PA decides to pay attention again and you'll always be a coward who doesn't bet and acts like a big shot on the internet.

I'm VERY impressed.

How's that upper lip of yours smelling?

Here's my post for all to read, to see if I was "bragging about spending time with 8yos." So keep inferring that I'm a pedophile, and you're going to get a reply that isn't nice but much deserved.



Can you even do simple math?

Let me help you out.

When Arrogate was "the greatest horse in the world," perhaps they thought they could get a $100k stud fee, even though he's by UBS. That's $10m a year based on 100 paid stud fees, and $30m in 3 years.

Now that Arrogate has fallen to earth, they may no longer be able to get $100k. If they can get $75k, they've lost $2.5m a year, or $7.5m in 3 years.

If they have to cut him to $50k, that's a loss in value of $5m a year, and $15m in 3 years.

This isn't tough. I'll explain it to my neighbor's 8yo when they come over to swim later today. I bet he gets the math.

Will Take Charge was a pretty accomplished son of UBS, and he could only command $30k as a stud fee, and that's being out of Take Charge Lady, a far superior female family than Arrogate's.

No one thinks he won't get a full book, but only you seem to not understand that the stud fee and quality of mares are subject to fluctuation, meaning yes, he can devalue and already has.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here's my post for all to read, to see if I was "bragging about spending time with 8yos." So keep inferring that I'm a pedophile, and you're going to get a reply that isn't nice but much deserved.

Yeah not exactly a smoking gun! Don't sweat this BS Fager Fan. As fans of this game it is part and parcel that we will have to tolerate a culture of whiny ass punks and losers on a daily basis when trying to discuss our beloved game! Par for the course!:cool:

[Dahoss9698]

Here's my post for all to read, to see if I was "bragging about spending time with 8yos." So keep inferring that I'm a pedophile, and you're going to get a reply that isn't nice but much deserved.

I didn't infer that at all, but it's interesting that's how you took it. :lol::lol::lol:

[Dahoss9698]

Yeah not exactly a smoking gun! Don't sweat this BS Fager Fan. As fans of this game it is part and parcel that we will have to tolerate a culture of whiny ass punks and losers on a daily basis when trying to discuss our beloved game! Par for the course!:cool:

Can't help yourself, huh?

[Dahoss9698]

This has been fun...but not enough for me to waste anymore time on.

Fager Fraud...pm me when we can meet up at the sales. I'm really looking forward to it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Can't help yourself, huh?

When you are scouring your mind for any dirt available on me absolutely!

Here's some more for the future to hold against me!

About 3 pm on Saturdays I crack a beer because all the heavy lifting has been done.

When I get bored with that I smoke marijuana around 5-6 PM.

I eat too much BBQ in the summer. Every spring I have washboard abs and start to resemble a sea otter every August.

I am a night owl. I come home from work and will fall asleep on the couch and be up til 5 am. Happens all the time.

I haven't been to confession in 10 years.

I have slept with 2 different women in 3 days. Both out of wedlock!

I didn't brush my teeth before I went to bed last night.

That about sums it up. Use it against me at your disgretion scumbag!:D

[Dahoss9698]

Clearly my work here is done.

:lol::lol::lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Of course I don't need your help, but i figured even I've never wished death upon someone. I pushed him to the edge? Because I disagreed with him? Because I pointed out he's wrong and echoed what you said months ago.....that he can't concede even when he's wrong?

Of course I expect to take it and have. I've been called names with nothing done, and now worse. Two sets of rules and since I posted in off topic you got your panties in a twist.

But good to know we're back to having no boundaries here. This is going to get fun.And here i thought I was nice to you in my reply. Could have been much worse.

That you got all upset that someone joked (yeah, it was a joke) about you being face down in the pool after you insult the guy time and time again...I have no sympathy for you in this instance...you could be the biggest conservative Republican in the world and I would have written the same exact thing to you.

Don't lean on the off-topic crutch...you're better than that

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't lean on the off-topic crutch...you're better than thatActually, I take that back...you're clearly NOT better than that.