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highnote
07-16-2017, 09:54 PM
Any thoughts on what Netflix will do over the next 5 or 6 months?

It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?

barn32
07-17-2017, 05:36 AM
Any thoughts on what Netflix will do over the next 5 or 6 months?

It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?24%.

barn32
07-17-2017, 10:16 AM
It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?24%.Oops. 24% is for January of 1919.

January of 1918 would be 16.5%

barn32
07-17-2017, 11:01 AM
Oops. 24% is for January of 1919.

January of 1918 would be 16.5%
I shouldn't try and do things without wearing my glasses. I posted June of 1918. January would be 10.5%

lamboguy
07-17-2017, 11:45 AM
i remember watching the FOX business block one saturday morning when Wayne Rodgers recommended NFLX at $26 per share as his number 1 pick for the year.

that guy played Captain Trapper in M*A*S*H, and had a lot of common sense with the markets.

i remember guys like him and not so good guys like Dan Dorfman that was a professional pump artist on FNN (financial new network to eventually become CNBC). not to many good ones that i ever saw on television.

highnote
07-17-2017, 02:55 PM
I shouldn't try and do things without wearing my glasses. I posted June of 1918. January would be 10.5%

Thanks!

BIG49010
07-17-2017, 05:40 PM
Seems like they should see subscriber growth slow or decline, you can get better content via open protocol Kodi or a multitude of other Apps on the Android platform

reckless
07-17-2017, 11:11 PM
In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.

reckless
07-18-2017, 05:20 PM
In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.

Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM

highnote
07-18-2017, 05:47 PM
Seems like they should see subscriber growth slow or decline, you can get better content via open protocol Kodi or a multitude of other Apps on the Android platform

Successful angel investor Jason Calicanis made these two tweets today:

"Netflix will have 250m subscribers in 5 years."

"Ultimately, 10-30% of high speed internet users will have @Netflix--so 250m users will be conservative."

highnote
07-18-2017, 05:49 PM
Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM

:ThmbUp:

Lemon Drop Husker
07-18-2017, 08:09 PM
Been a Netflix subscriber for nearly a decade.

It is a good product, but seriously thinking about dropping. From an investment standpoint, I couldn't invest a dime in them. They have solid original content and exclusive stuff, but the cold hard reality is that they are still 3 months late on anything and everything out of the theater. And if it is anything good, much much later and likely not even a part of what you can view.

If I was to invest, it would be Fandango. They actually get "in the theater" movies, and even before the theater movies. At some point, I see it expanding to "real time" in which they will be able to broadcast actual real time movies the same time they are in the theater for even the good stuff that everybody wants to see.

Many people have theater type stuff in their own home. I'd likely pay double the cost of a new release movie to watch in my own home. Heck, you can package it as a "now" view and sale of having a bought film in your collection for $30 to $40 (maybe even more). Doesn't hurt Hollywood, and eliminates the over-expensive middle man.

All you need now is somebody to make some good popcorn for people at home. :)

_______
07-18-2017, 08:24 PM
Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM

Looking for value and waiting (sometimes years) for the market to catch up is boring when you have the excitement of watching a dot on your computer screen move up and down all day.

NFLX checks all my boxes except that it doesn't pay a dividend. They invest so much back into the business (content is expensive) that I doubt they do for a very long time.

I sit enviously on the sidelines. It's okay though. There are enough that check every box for me. And rules are rules.

Camkid77
07-20-2017, 06:42 PM
Any thoughts on what Netflix will do over the next 5 or 6 months?

It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?



I think it will be around the $200 range by Dec this year :cool:

Parkview_Pirate
07-22-2017, 05:50 AM
In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.

Per this article, this guy says Netflix struggles with free cash flow. Huh?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4080200-netflix-happens-growth-ends

Summary

Netflix has struggled with producing Free Cash Flow.

The Negative Free Cash Flow model has, however, produced great subscriber growth.

Netflix has a range of options to create a strong cash flow positive endgame.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has been called everything. From the best investment for the future to a bubble in search of a pin. Just last week I addressed one growing concern that Netflix was not amortizing its content quickly enough. I analyzed the numbers and I thought it was doing a wonderful job, and perhaps was being too hard on itself. Still, the bigger issues remain. The cash flow statement looks atrocious.



Source: Netflix Annual reports

This is in spite of the income statement showing consistently positive earnings.



In fact, Netflix itself recognizes this issue and you can find it emphasizing this in its financial statement disclosures.



Yes. Straight from the horse's mouth. Warnings aside, one must be cognizant of the fact that Netflix has produced very large membership growth with this negative cash flow.

All I know is that Netflix has the luxury of letting you and your ISP carry the workload for all that bandwidth. I've read where in some areas Netflix is over half of the internet traffic from homes. Not sure how long that honeymoon lasts, with the competition between ISPs cutting margins to the bone.

As a side note, I tried Netflix for a couple of months, and was disappointed in their selection, especially of classic movies. Their original content didn't impress me either, but based on their subscription numbers, I must be an outlier.

BaffertsWig
07-22-2017, 12:53 PM
As a side note, I tried Netflix for a couple of months, and was disappointed in their selection, especially of classic movies. Their original content didn't impress me either, but based on their subscription numbers, I must be an outlier.

Flaked
Love
Master of None


3 very solid original series worth a watch. I just signed up a few months ago and absolutely love it. I can't wait for October, they usually ramp up their horror category for Halloween. Well worth the $10/mo, the selection is vast and offers something for everyone IMO.

reckless
07-26-2017, 09:24 AM
Per this article, this guy says Netflix struggles with free cash flow. Huh?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4080200-netflix-happens-growth-ends



All I know is that Netflix has the luxury of letting you and your ISP carry the workload for all that bandwidth. I've read where in some areas Netflix is over half of the internet traffic from homes. Not sure how long that honeymoon lasts, with the competition between ISPs cutting margins to the bone.

As a side note, I tried Netflix for a couple of months, and was disappointed in their selection, especially of classic movies. Their original content didn't impress me either, but based on their subscription numbers, I must be an outlier.

I read that article too, Parkview...

In a nutshell I use different metrics and methodology to analyze companies that I invest in.

In a nutshell, I buy/sell companies solely on Free Cash Flow and price. I place a lot of emphasis on cash flow growth, FCF, FCF percentage growth, Return on Invested Capital, Return on the Free Cash Flow. By my way of doing all this, I don't have Netflix with negative cash flow, that's all. But, FCF does need to be monitored because of Netflix's decision to get into the production end of original movie and TV programming. I personally do not like this.

Netflix is still way too cheap to sell at this time, imo. I do have a very nice profit in the company so I have an added luxury of waiting and seeing how some of the headline stories play out. I will be using the stock prices I posted earlier for my personal 'sell' signal.

reckless
07-26-2017, 10:04 AM
Looking for value and waiting (sometimes years) for the market to catch up is boring when you have the excitement of watching a dot on your computer screen move up and down all day.

NFLX checks all my boxes except that it doesn't pay a dividend. They invest so much back into the business (content is expensive) that I doubt they do for a very long time.

I sit enviously on the sidelines. It's okay though. There are enough that check every box for me. And rules are rules.

Sorry for being late to your post.

I am with you about the dividend 'box' needing to be checked. I am in total agreement with you, ________. Dividend paying companies are better investments in the aggregate.

But a few years back I did my semi-annual re-evaluation of my portfolio and I found I owned too many old time stocks such as Abbott, Altria, Chevron, and the like.

I wanted some growth companies so over the years I'd add 1-2 companies who were either new to the dividend paying crowd or not a dividend payer. That's the why on how I now have a Netflix and United Therapeutics, to name two. But, the no dividend payer must be dirt cheap, have a strong balance sheet and offer sales and earnings growth.

Nothing wrong in sitting on the sidelines if you're uncomfortable. Yes, I personally feel there are a few dozen major, dividend paying companies that are selling below intrinsic value; some are screaming buys too. But you need to feel what is right for you.

It's just like the racetrack. If you don't bet the race, it's a winning bet! At least by my warped sense of thinking. :)