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View Full Version : Last day of Belmont Sunday, any long shots???


n.c
07-15-2017, 11:55 PM
give out all the possible long shots, and i will put $2 to win on all them.:D

This way i do not get bored at the track.

johnhannibalsmith
07-16-2017, 12:42 AM
R11: :7: Open Bar 20-1

n.c
07-16-2017, 10:52 AM
I WILL PUT 2 TO PLACE ON THE 7
BUT SOME of the negatives on the 7

1. Adsit Abigail- name - have never talked to anybody named Adsit...:headbanger:

2. Horse- never run on turf and it is already a 4 year old

3. claimed from Jason Servis- and stepping up to 40k...going to guess Servis would have run the horse on turf and at 40k, but he did not

4. going against Clemente, Casse 2 horses, Rudy,Maker, Rice and Asmussen in this race

but i will put 2$ on place

FlintAtTheFetlock
07-16-2017, 11:29 AM
How about the :9: Shades of Brown in R5. Rested, breaks with speed from outside post, reasonable chance to clear. Carmouche seems to bring these types home. And how about that 6/25 work? Food for thought.

Also Race 2 chock full of value. Considering :3: and really like :11: Rockin Aly. Looks likes tons of speed he can run down, shown tactical ability.

Good Luck

n.c
07-16-2017, 11:50 AM
as a key horse, on the bottom side

20-1- has two wins at Belmont...2nd race back, 1 win at the distance

Saez going to 1 though

Rocking Ally- May 29th race came off turf, showed speed and fade..now the good work out..will key with Linda Rice
:headbanger:

johnhannibalsmith
07-16-2017, 11:52 AM
...
BUT SOME of the negatives on the 7

1. Adsit Abigail- name - have never talked to anybody named Adsit...:headbanger:

2. Horse- never run on turf and it is already a 4 year old

3. claimed from Jason Servis- and stepping up to 40k...going to guess Servis would have run the horse on turf and at 40k, but he did not

4. going against Clemente, Casse 2 horses, Rudy,Maker, Rice and Asmussen in this race

but i will put 2$ on place

Okay okay, my main reason was it's the last race on the last day and if I got really lucky, this would make a great get-out deluxe.

I'm not expecting this horse to take money for the reasons you mention and about a dozen others. I think the 20-1 M/L is a good starting point and I genuinely think this guy has a relatively small chance, but it is a chance within range of that 20-1 number.

To address your concerns specifically:

1. I think if you reverse it, you get Abigail Adsit. Still not quite Jane Smith, but I'm seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. Further, whenever I stumble upon an AA (that might help) entry, I like something. I like they way she's moving one up, I like the work for this race, I like something, they rarely just look like straight up filler that someone just entered because there was a race.

2. Already four but only making start number eight. I think the negative there isn't the elapsed time to the turf debut, but the fact that they (original barn) dumped this one after two starts, both for a tag, and they were into him about $400,000 when they decided losses needed cut.

The other negative that does involve the turf move is half-full, half-empty type prospect. Is she entering on turf while doing well on the bottom on dirt because she genuinely is willing to risk a good dirt race for the chance to improve on turf? Or, is she entering on turf because then this one might cut it at Saratoga if it can run improved race on turf and spend the meet trying that as opposed to facing better bottom conditioned claimers on the main track? An audition of sorts, I guess.

3. Servis only ran him once in New York and off a cheap maiden win went to the bottom non-two. That's why he hits at huge numbers. He doesn't go run off and try the Belmont turf on the step up off a cheap maiden win at Parx. He goes for the jugular in the right spot.

4. I notice a trend here. Lots of people. Adsit the name as a negative, Servis didn't do this, he has to beat this great trainer and that great trainer.

Yup, I try to beat horses that get action simply because they are Servis and Casse and Rudy and Clemente. I'm thinking that this horse belongs at 15-1 and will be 30-1 for exactly that reason.

I didn't like a lot today in terms of individual horses, so I tried to give you something meaty, albeit very unlikely, to close out the day.

It isn't a likely winner. But, of everyone in the race, I think it probably is the most likely to give you a better price than you deserve. The horse isn't terrible, he was a major disappointment that began cheap, and is still lightly raced enough to improve as a racehorse in general and moving to turf specifically. There are lots of negatives, but there area handful of positives in a race where most of the competition's greatest thing they bring to the race is the name of their trainer.

Good luck.

johnhannibalsmith
07-16-2017, 12:25 PM
The other negative that does involve the turf move is half-full, half-empty type prospect. Is she entering on turf while doing well on the bottom on dirt because she genuinely is willing to risk a good dirt race for the chance to improve on turf? Or, is she entering on turf because then this one might cut it at Saratoga if it can run improved race on turf and spend the meet trying that as opposed to facing better bottom conditioned claimers on the main track? An audition of sorts, I guess.

...

Sorry, I forgot to read back and edit and just now reading this pile of text I squeezed out in a hurry and will drive me nuts if I don't add something here.

The negative that I really meant to hit on at the close here and just rushed myself past it is that possibility that there was just nowhere else to run the horse and it isn't staying in New York, so this was the closest thing to a last spot to run in at the meet. I was then going to reach back to the part where I mentioned my impressions of the barn's entering habits and tie it all together with a benefit of the doubt for her based on those impressions.

Not exactly like I left out the key evidence that will send the masses to the windows to play, but it really annoyed me when I read it that somehow my fingers never got the message.

davew
07-16-2017, 03:00 PM
I once knew a guy who would bet every entry to win in every race in what he called 'get-away day'. I am not sure the ROI, but looks like will be positive today with a $72 winner in the first.

Jack950
07-16-2017, 04:50 PM
How about the :9: Shades of Brown in R5. Rested, breaks with speed from outside post, reasonable chance to clear. Carmouche seems to bring these types home. And how about that 6/25 work? Food for thought.

Also Race 2 chock full of value. Considering :3: and really like :11: Rockin Aly. Looks likes tons of speed he can run down, shown tactical ability.

Good Luck

Shades of Brown ran well. 3rd at 20/1

n.c
07-16-2017, 07:39 PM
may 29th off turf, bullet work out - horse name was Shades of Brown, with
Carmouche , horse given out by FlintAtTheFetlock:headbanger:

n.c
07-16-2017, 07:47 PM
towards the end of the meet, at any track, i like horses that have been in the same barn for some ti me, which has not been claimed before.

If you look at this race, 8-11-13, all three have been with the same trAINER FOR
a long time, ie with horses that have been claimed before multiple times, you don't know which horse can be depended upon, they may not be sound , ie they have issues.

n.c
07-16-2017, 07:59 PM
"I once knew a guy who would bet every entry to win in every race in what he called 'get-away day'. I am not sure the ROI, but looks like will be positive today with a $72 winner in the first"


one of the angles give out by one of the pace adv guys

mcl, with plenty of work outs ,...last day of the meet, #7 had work outs, while rest of the field had gap work outs, plus the 7 had a trainer change and a race on june 8th. 23 furlongs if you include the june 8th race in about 30 days.

n.c
07-16-2017, 10:13 PM
race number 1- they are a outfit out of southwest, with few horses running at Lrl and Pim..:: so last day of the meet, they run the horse at Belmont, first time ever they have run a horse at Belmont...horse worked out 2 days ago at belmont:bang:

PIC6SIX
07-16-2017, 11:25 PM
YA, bet the 7/5 exacta box in the first race and the 7 and 5 to win. Also do a SUP keying the 5 n 7 over the 123457. All that should make your day. Use them in DD and P3 if you wish.

castaway01
07-17-2017, 09:17 AM
towards the end of the meet, at any track, i like horses that have been in the same barn for some ti me, which has not been claimed before.

If you look at this race, 8-11-13, all three have been with the same trAINER FOR
a long time, ie with horses that have been claimed before multiple times, you don't know which horse can be depended upon, they may not be sound , ie they have issues.

For what reason would a horse running in the same barn for a long time be more sound and a better bet than a horse that other owners/trainers liked enough to want in their barn?

n.c
07-17-2017, 10:38 PM
horses are tired...so if you have a 10 horse field, and lets assume 6 horses have been claimed in the last few months, i am going to just guess that out of 6 horses, maybe 1 or 2 will overachieve..rest of them will just flop, maybe bad claims, horse going from a 25% trainer to 10% etc etc , and it is the last day of the meet, they are dumping horses. Trainer only had the horse for few weeks.

A horse that has been with the same trainer for a while, has a little emotional connection ...probably horse will be taken care of better and will probably run better..would you buy a car that has been sold 5 times in the last 5 years or a car that has been with the same owner for the last 5 years...same mileage:eek:

i prefer the car that had the same owner for the last 5 years, even though he is selling the car.

Last week of Oaklawn, i got lucky with this play..it was a number 2 horse, going out at good odds, always coming in 4th( think it was Kelly Von Hemel horse) going against bunch of claimed horses, all had superior speed numbers..race had lots of early speed, but those early speed horses had run 4-5 times already in the meet:) all of them folded..IT is like a key horse in a tri or super, wheel around this horse.

2
Riqqa

Channing Hill
$32.40 $14.60 $9.80
1
Outrun the Posse

Walter De La Cruz
$36.00 $15.80
6
American Roma

Alex L. Canchari
$7.80

WINNING CONNECTIONS:
Owner: Brian K Hall
Trainer: Kelly K Von Hemel
Breeder: Shadwell Farm, LLC:)

n.c
07-17-2017, 11:37 PM
he seems to win at a higher rate towards the end of the meet vs early..He is a good trainer, but seems like he goes against inferior horses, or tired horses late in the meet and pads up his win %:rant: