HK-SHA TIN - SUN 7/16 Semi-LIVE- Closing Day

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
The final race card of this meet looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with all 11 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’ll be posting Live selections for some of the races in Hong Kong this morning, and my Early selections will also follow and will ALL be based on a static tote analysis.
The Live selections will supersede those posted earlier and will be posted by 3 minutes to post. They will all be based the Live tote analysis.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.

Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #5 - #7 - #9

BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns
when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) T….….5-9 W/ 2-7-10-6 ……...12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1800M (9F) T…...... 3-1 W/ 4-2-11-9 ……..1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1200M (6F) T….....1-2 W/ 5-3-6-10 .......1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1400M (7F) T….....8-7 W/ 5-1-10-2 ….......2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1800M (9F) T.……7-4 W/ 13-5-10-8 …........2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1400M (6F) T….....1-10 W/ 3-4-2-6 ……......3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 – 1600M (8F) T…....6-3 W/ 2-8-11-13 .........3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1600M (8F) D……2-1 W/ 4-3-6 …………....…4:05 AM EST


R#9 - 1400M (7F) T.…...1-2 W/ 6-7-12-3 ….…....4:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1200M (6F) T.......7-6 W/ 2-5-8-9 ………..5:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 & #1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#11 - 1400M (7F) T…...2-4 W/ 7-12-10-1 ……....5:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #14 & #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

R#1 - 5-9 W/ 2-7-10-6 -

Live Tote Results: 5-12-11-4 – Dutch 149% Profit Margin – HIT

TOP choice $14.30 Early & Live – A nice way to kick things off!

No action on the LS Placer

[Nitro]

Results: R #1 – Live Dutch BIG HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.1 6.1 59.0 BET PRF
$8 $14 $120
$120 $69 $8 $197 $295 149%
$492 $492 $492

[Nitro]

R#2 - 3-1 W/ 4-2-11-9 – Nothing there – just got nosed out!

Live Tote Results: 5-3-2-1 – Dutch 74% Profit Margin - OUT

OUT Early & Live

No action on the LS Winner

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1-2 W/ 5-3-6-10 – All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 5-6-1-4 – Dutch 24% Profit Margin - PASS

3rd choice $6.80 Early & 2nd choice Live & $36.90 QUIN / $161.60 TRI BX (Very Generous!)

Solid action on the Top 3 finishers

[Nitro]

Results: R #3 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.3 2.4 12.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $26
$26 $18 $5 $48 $12 24%
$60 $60 $60

[Nitro]

R#4 - 8-7 W/ 5-1-10-2 All of that one! (w/#12 Tote Watch – Fin. 3rd)

Live Tote Results: 10-5-12-14 – Dutch 72% Profit Margin - HIT

5th choice $11.20 Early & 3rd choice Live & $49.30 QUIN / $287.00 TRI BX –

Top 3 were All live on the board
(#12 Tote Watch got heavy action w/Moreira up & #8 dropped – No action on the board)

[Nitro]

Results: R #4 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.7 4.6 6.6 BET PRF
$7 $11 $15
$15 $10 $7 $33 $24 72%
$56 $56 $56

[Nitro]

R#5 - 7-4 W/ 13-5-10-8 - All of that one! (w/#3 Tote Watch – Fin. 1st)

Live Tote Results: 3-13-7-4 – Dutch 100% Profit Margin - OUT

Out Early & 5th choice $25.00 Live – Live & $190.80 QUIN / $5,478.20 TRI BX

(#3 Tote Watch had solid action in Quinella pools & #10 dropped – Not much action at all)

[Nitro]

Results: R #5 – Live Dutch OUT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 10.0 12.0 BET PRF
$6 $22 $26
$26 $7 $6 $39 $39 100%
$78 $78 $78

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1-10 W/ 3-4-2-6 – Nothing there - #2 Late Scr moved #11 as 3rd choice.

Live Tote Results: 12-6-1-11 – Dutch 36% Profit Margin - PASS

OUT Early & Live & #3 dropped – No betting action at all)

Minimal action on the LS Winner

[Nitro]

Results: R #6 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 3.1 3.8 BET PRF
$7 $8 $10
$10 $8 $7 $25 $9 36%
$34 $34 $34

[Nitro]

R#7 - 6-3 W/ 2-8-11-13 - (w/#10 Tote Watch – Fin. 1st)

Live Tote Results: 10-8-9-5 – Dutch 88% Profit Margin - HIT

Out Early & 3rd choice $14.50 Live & $30.10 QUIN

(#10 Tote Watch got solid action throughout the betting & #3 dropped – No action at all)

[Nitro]

Results: R #7 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 6.2 10.0 BET PRF
$7 $14 $22
$22 $10 $7 $39 $34 88%
$73 $73 $73

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-1 W/ 4-3-6 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 6-3-4-2 - Dutch 0% Profit Margin - PASS

5th choice $7.20 Early & 2nd choice Live & $15.20 QUIN / $46.20 TRI BX

Top 3 were getting solid betting throughout in all pools ( #1 dropped to 5th choice Not much action)

[Nitro]

Results: R #8 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 2.6 2.8 BET PRF
$4 $7 $8
$8 $4 $4 $16 $0 0%
$16 $16 $16

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-2 W/ 6-7-12-3 - (w/#11 Tote Watch – Fin. 1st)

Live Tote Results: 11-2-4-14 - Dutch 105% Profit Margin – HIT

OUT Early & 3rd choice $9.30 Live & $42.00 QUIN

(#11 Tote Watch got heavy action w/Moreria up & #3 dropped – With no action on the board)

[Nitro]

Results: R #9 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.6 5.9 6.9 BET PRF
$9 $14 $16
$16 $11 $9 $36 $37 105%
$73 $73 $73

[Nitro]

Update
R#10 – 7-1 W/ 2-9-5-8 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#10 - 7-1 W/ 2-9-5-8 –

Live Tote Results: 4-6-5-3 - Dutch 67% Profit Margin - HIT

TOP choice $5.00 Early & Live & $48.00 QUIN

Winner got solid action w/Moreira on board

[Nitro]

Results: R #10 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 4.9 34.0 BET PRF
$5 $12 $70
$70 $30 $5 $105 $70 67%
$175 $175 $175

[Nitro]

Update

R#11 – 2-7 W/ 10-12-1-3 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#11 - 2-7 W/ 10-12-1-3 – Nothing there

Live Tote Results: 6-14-7-10 - Dutch 74% Profit Margin - OUT

OUT Early & Live

Winner took all the late money!

[Nitro]

Results: R #11 – Live Dutch OUT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 3.7 7.9 BET PRF
$8 $9 $18
$18 $15 $8 $41 $30 74%
$71 $71 $71

[Nitro]

O.A. Win Dutching Summary – 11 Races

(5) HITS – (3) OUT – (3) PASSED

Verticals

(6) Quinellas & (3) Triples

Another good night (morning) and fine season @ Hong Kong!

The next meet begins on Sept 3rd.