traynor
07-13-2017, 05:01 PM
In 1462 Races 0.56 % of Winners had FASTER AP in LAST than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.15 % of Winners had SAME AP in LAST as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.29 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in LAST than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.52 % of Winners had FASTER AP in 2NDBACK than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.16 % of Winners had SAME AP in 2NDBACK as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.32 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in 2NDBACK than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.52 % of Winners had FASTER AP in 3RDBACK than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.14 % of Winners had SAME AP in 3RDBACK as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.35 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in 3RDBACK than TODAY
This happens to be a record of pace races at Yonkers. The ratios and relationships are remarkably similar at other tracks, and at many thoroughbred tracks as well. "AP" is a plain vanilla "average pace" that is conceptually equivalent to a speed rating, final time rating, 0-Fin, or similar designations.
The key point is that values from the last race, or a recent race, are very rarely replicated in the current race. What should come as no great surprise (but often does) is that the notion that horses can be meaningfully compared by simplistic evaluations of recent performances is conceptually flawed.
Specifically, horses can be expected to go faster, or to go slower (than in recent races), but rarely to go at the same rate. (The "SAME" designation is--like "FASTER" and "SLOWER"--a range of values allowing sufficiently broad categories to be significant.)
In 1462 Races 0.15 % of Winners had SAME AP in LAST as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.29 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in LAST than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.52 % of Winners had FASTER AP in 2NDBACK than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.16 % of Winners had SAME AP in 2NDBACK as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.32 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in 2NDBACK than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.52 % of Winners had FASTER AP in 3RDBACK than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.14 % of Winners had SAME AP in 3RDBACK as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.35 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in 3RDBACK than TODAY
This happens to be a record of pace races at Yonkers. The ratios and relationships are remarkably similar at other tracks, and at many thoroughbred tracks as well. "AP" is a plain vanilla "average pace" that is conceptually equivalent to a speed rating, final time rating, 0-Fin, or similar designations.
The key point is that values from the last race, or a recent race, are very rarely replicated in the current race. What should come as no great surprise (but often does) is that the notion that horses can be meaningfully compared by simplistic evaluations of recent performances is conceptually flawed.
Specifically, horses can be expected to go faster, or to go slower (than in recent races), but rarely to go at the same rate. (The "SAME" designation is--like "FASTER" and "SLOWER"--a range of values allowing sufficiently broad categories to be significant.)