Teach
07-04-2017, 12:26 PM
Happy Fourth of July!
Race One:
I’m giving my lukewarm, tepid nod to :6: Desirious. She's been installed by NYRA odds-maker, Eric Donovan, as the 7/5 morning line favorite in this 20k MC route. Personally, I believe that may be generous. I like this bay filly – don’t get me wrong. Yet, I have gnawing doubts about her “getting the distance”. I would tread cautiously and, if you select her on top, I would consider (I am) “buying insurance”. Remember: Hedging provides protection, but it also dilutes. If I were to look elsewhere, I see three horses that catch my eye. In fact, at least in two cases, they will likely provide much greater value than the aforementioned :6:. These horses are: :4: Heavenly Lucky. He’s valued at 6/5 on the morning line. Yet, there are question-marks about her, as well. Her trainer, Nick Zito, is not having the kind of meet that we’d expect from this accomplished conditioner. Zito does not do particularly well with horses that have been away from the races. Yet, this filly did finish second in her last at Keeneland. :7: Shezastraybullet is “the sleeper”. Not sure what expect off her only start. She should benefit from outside post which befits her running style. May well have needed her last. Then, there’s the first-time Lasix angle. Finally, :1: You Promise is dropping two classes. A possible wake-up call? I like the turf-to-dirt angle.
Race Two:
In this n3L, 7 panels on the turf, my pick is :3: Miss Aja Brown. This chestnut filly has a lot going for her: Jose Ortiz in the irons (the switch here is huge). Mike Hushion’s training skills. Second off a layoff. Drop in class. Solid recent work. My only concern: Does she prefer a slightly longer distance; this filly does take a while to get into gear. :9: Queen of Castle could do nothing in her last, a race that was taken off the turf. I believe that this Unbridled Song-bred filly has a solid chance here. “The Louisiana Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche, is in the irons. Others: :7: and :2:.
Race Three:
:6: Old Dubai gets my nod.Why? First, I’m partial to Kiaran McLaughlin-trained horses (Kiaran does well with shippers). In this colt’s only pari-mutuel start, he was in contention early only to fade in the stretch. I believe this well-bred colt will take a step forward off that effort. Jose Lezcano is in the irons. Others: :5:, :7:, :4:
Race Four:
:6: Lulu’s Pom Pom is my pick in this turf sprint. In her last, this Pomeroy-bred filly ran into more traffic problems than the L.I.E. at rush hour; she was forced five-wide in that one. This grey now faces a slightly smaller field and gets the services of the aggressive reinsman, Joel Rosario. Monsieur Christophe Clement does very well with horses making turf starts; he also does well with horses that are getting second-time Lasix. I like the third start off a layoff angle. Others: :8:, :5:, :7:
Race Five:
Can history repeat itself? I liked this Rick Violette, Jr. trainee off a long layoff and he popped. Can he come right back? I believe so. Personally, I loved the way this Posse-bred, :10: New York Song, closed so convincingly in the stretch. Anything resembling that… I mean anything that comes close to that closing rush and this chestnut colt can once again grace the winner’s circle. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. Others: :8:, :5:, :7:
Race Six:
It’s an “Inside Job”! My order: :3:, :4:, :1:, :2:. Yet, I could make a case for any one of these four horses. If I were to narrow it down for Pick-6 selections, I’d likely say either :3: or :4:. Caveat: Do not expect much in return, either flat bets or exotics. If you’re making multi-race wagers, I believe you will need to give consideration to each of these horses.
Race Seven:
:6: Caviar Czar gets my call in this allowance route. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt was most impressive in breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs a couple months ago, albeit on a sloppy track. Well, this 3 year-old won’t get a sloppy track today. Yet, I still believe he has an excellent chance of getting his picture taken. This Irish-bred looks like he should easily handle the mile distance. He has the services of both John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher. There’s also some very solid morning works. Yes, any residual moisture on the Belmont oval would help. Others: :1:, :3:, :5:
Race Eight:
In the 100k non-graded Manila at one mile on the turf, my pick is the rail horse, :1: Bricks and Mortar. This Giant’s Causeway-bred has won both his pari-mutuel starts. Yes, he certainly jumps up in class here; yet I believe he can be equal to the occasion. This grandson of Storm Cat has the services of both Joel Rosario and trainer Chad Brown. Brown does particularly well with non-graded stakes races. Others: :3:, :7:, :6:
Race Nine:
In the finale, my pick in this MC turf sprint is :1: Daring Destiny. I believe you can toss out this A.P. Indy-bred’s only start about one month ago. He raced greenly in that one. With that race under his belt I believe you can look for improvement. This gelding looks like he’s ready to take a step forward. The start of the race will be critical. Jose Ortiz is in the irons for Linda Rice. Rice does very well both with horses making their second career start and those going from maiden to maiden claimers. Others: :3:, :7:, :10:
Race One:
I’m giving my lukewarm, tepid nod to :6: Desirious. She's been installed by NYRA odds-maker, Eric Donovan, as the 7/5 morning line favorite in this 20k MC route. Personally, I believe that may be generous. I like this bay filly – don’t get me wrong. Yet, I have gnawing doubts about her “getting the distance”. I would tread cautiously and, if you select her on top, I would consider (I am) “buying insurance”. Remember: Hedging provides protection, but it also dilutes. If I were to look elsewhere, I see three horses that catch my eye. In fact, at least in two cases, they will likely provide much greater value than the aforementioned :6:. These horses are: :4: Heavenly Lucky. He’s valued at 6/5 on the morning line. Yet, there are question-marks about her, as well. Her trainer, Nick Zito, is not having the kind of meet that we’d expect from this accomplished conditioner. Zito does not do particularly well with horses that have been away from the races. Yet, this filly did finish second in her last at Keeneland. :7: Shezastraybullet is “the sleeper”. Not sure what expect off her only start. She should benefit from outside post which befits her running style. May well have needed her last. Then, there’s the first-time Lasix angle. Finally, :1: You Promise is dropping two classes. A possible wake-up call? I like the turf-to-dirt angle.
Race Two:
In this n3L, 7 panels on the turf, my pick is :3: Miss Aja Brown. This chestnut filly has a lot going for her: Jose Ortiz in the irons (the switch here is huge). Mike Hushion’s training skills. Second off a layoff. Drop in class. Solid recent work. My only concern: Does she prefer a slightly longer distance; this filly does take a while to get into gear. :9: Queen of Castle could do nothing in her last, a race that was taken off the turf. I believe that this Unbridled Song-bred filly has a solid chance here. “The Louisiana Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche, is in the irons. Others: :7: and :2:.
Race Three:
:6: Old Dubai gets my nod.Why? First, I’m partial to Kiaran McLaughlin-trained horses (Kiaran does well with shippers). In this colt’s only pari-mutuel start, he was in contention early only to fade in the stretch. I believe this well-bred colt will take a step forward off that effort. Jose Lezcano is in the irons. Others: :5:, :7:, :4:
Race Four:
:6: Lulu’s Pom Pom is my pick in this turf sprint. In her last, this Pomeroy-bred filly ran into more traffic problems than the L.I.E. at rush hour; she was forced five-wide in that one. This grey now faces a slightly smaller field and gets the services of the aggressive reinsman, Joel Rosario. Monsieur Christophe Clement does very well with horses making turf starts; he also does well with horses that are getting second-time Lasix. I like the third start off a layoff angle. Others: :8:, :5:, :7:
Race Five:
Can history repeat itself? I liked this Rick Violette, Jr. trainee off a long layoff and he popped. Can he come right back? I believe so. Personally, I loved the way this Posse-bred, :10: New York Song, closed so convincingly in the stretch. Anything resembling that… I mean anything that comes close to that closing rush and this chestnut colt can once again grace the winner’s circle. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. Others: :8:, :5:, :7:
Race Six:
It’s an “Inside Job”! My order: :3:, :4:, :1:, :2:. Yet, I could make a case for any one of these four horses. If I were to narrow it down for Pick-6 selections, I’d likely say either :3: or :4:. Caveat: Do not expect much in return, either flat bets or exotics. If you’re making multi-race wagers, I believe you will need to give consideration to each of these horses.
Race Seven:
:6: Caviar Czar gets my call in this allowance route. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt was most impressive in breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs a couple months ago, albeit on a sloppy track. Well, this 3 year-old won’t get a sloppy track today. Yet, I still believe he has an excellent chance of getting his picture taken. This Irish-bred looks like he should easily handle the mile distance. He has the services of both John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher. There’s also some very solid morning works. Yes, any residual moisture on the Belmont oval would help. Others: :1:, :3:, :5:
Race Eight:
In the 100k non-graded Manila at one mile on the turf, my pick is the rail horse, :1: Bricks and Mortar. This Giant’s Causeway-bred has won both his pari-mutuel starts. Yes, he certainly jumps up in class here; yet I believe he can be equal to the occasion. This grandson of Storm Cat has the services of both Joel Rosario and trainer Chad Brown. Brown does particularly well with non-graded stakes races. Others: :3:, :7:, :6:
Race Nine:
In the finale, my pick in this MC turf sprint is :1: Daring Destiny. I believe you can toss out this A.P. Indy-bred’s only start about one month ago. He raced greenly in that one. With that race under his belt I believe you can look for improvement. This gelding looks like he’s ready to take a step forward. The start of the race will be critical. Jose Ortiz is in the irons for Linda Rice. Rice does very well both with horses making their second career start and those going from maiden to maiden claimers. Others: :3:, :7:, :10: