Handicapping systems

[masterpeg]

I have tried several different systems in a short 3 year on and off again love affair with racing. I've read all the books and tried Quinn, Quirin and Brohammers ( a lot of time goes into it, but thats where the fun is for me....i like to solve puzzles and these are the ultimate puzzles). If you use a commercialized sytem (ie. published handicappers system, or one of the many software systems that I always wondered about), even if it is just a part of your overall handicapping, and you are successfull in the long run with it....could you let me in on it. I would like to try my hand at all I can get my hands on. Even if you just play certain angles.

And one more question...how long do you spend handicapping one race?
I usually spend about 45-60 min per race....and since I haven't won much I know Im wasting my time, but again, its fun for me, and I really don't know any way to speed it up....I do all the pace numbers of the contenders per Brohammers "Modern Pace Handicapping" book.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I assumed you were asking how long per day, not per race.
People with some strict types of races they play or eliminations of horses should not spend as much time as doing full handicapping.
Some overlays will jump out at you with experience.

[masterpeg]

I actually meant per race....I guess, from your question, you don't spend too much time on a race...

I spend a lot of time, some of it choosing pacelines, adjusting fractions and inputting them in the spreadsheet, then finally the analysis of the pace and any other variables. Like I said, the process is fun for me anyway...guess im a stat geek, but the results aren't there yet.

[kenwoodallpromos]

With systems I use that have eliminatiopns, I go through the form horse by horse and do the eliminations, then go back for the risk/value assessments subjectively.
Another system I use only low-odds horses whose running style and running lines fit the track speed.
I usually do not do full handicapping or use times.

[kenwoodallpromos]

With systems I use that have eliminatiopns, I go through the form horse by horse and do the eliminations, then go back for the risk/value assessments subjectively.
Another system I use only low-odds horses whose running style and running lines fit the track speed.
I usually do not do full handicapping or use times.
A form of 40 racves takes about 2-3 hours depending on if I am using 1, 2, or 3 of my systems.

[kenwoodallpromos]

My brother loses and spends too much time trying to outguess the connections.
I study stats and all aspects of horses and racing, but I have to spend time figuring out whyat makes common sense and what is wrong notions by bettors that become common mistakes.

[Diamond K]

I had one of my horses running one day. I came to the track all dressed in favorite sport coat, tie, shoes shined. I brought the wife and two of the kids. My trainer also got decked out in his best attire. We were sitting in my box when a track acquaintance approached and asked "think your horse has a shot to get a small part of it"?

We won the race, had photo taken as usual, and soon ran into the acquaintance who said 'nice going...but he just didn't figure'

A few days later I had another horse running, was sitting alone in my box, very comfortable in jeans and shirt when acquaintance approaches and says 'your a dead lock cinch to win'. Wonder what kenwoodalls brother would have thought would happen?

Some time later he told me he can never get lucky on my horses.

[kenwoodallpromos]

My brother goes by trainers' duds all the time, ewspecially when the horse is dropped twice; but you obviously have a smarter trainer than he bets on.
I'm wondering what the jeans and t-shirt means as to "trainer intent".

[masterpeg]

thought I'd let you know how I did today after all your help.
I played 4 races at Del Mar and had won on two win tickets while missing the superfecta in the 10th by the 4th taking 4th place. that was agonizing, but I am happy to be up 22 dolloars going into tomorrow. I used my old system, the system another posted (especially for me) and using formulator 4's beyers chart for each race I just highlighted the top 3 beyers in key categories and added them up. Believe it or not, the beyer system had 3 winners on three out of the 4 races, after the races I used the same beyer angle for the turf races and it had 1 of 2 winners. It doesn't do well on place and show.

I only played dirt non maiden races today, tomorrow ill try the pick four (guarantee 400k). I missed a huge price 13-1 by simply not betting the beyer angle (I didn't even consider the horse, nor did the public i guess). That made me sick, but I hadn't yet caught on to the pattern. I hope it maintains for tomorrow.

[Diamond K]

I forgot to point out that among a few hundred win photo's I rarely if ever wasn't wearing a sport coat or suit.

I was in the savings and loan business in Chicago and even when running in Florida I wore a sport coat. Kind of my uniform.

I also had the largest thoroughbred insurance company outside Lloyds so most of my time was in my trailer at the track for I insured most all horses at the track I was at. In short, I would wear jeans if I thought the horse didn't have a shot. All track vets were sort of on my payroll for I paid them for exams on the horses insured. The trainers ordered the exam and I paid the vet direct. Jules Fink put all his eastern insurance business through the company and it was a sizeable account with some great horses. Some people know of him as one of the 'speed boys' of handicap lore.

Those were the days of angles but nothing like anyone dreams of today.

[masterpeg]

hey diamond....are you high?

what the heck are you talking about? lol
I can't get through 2 lines of posts without saying wtf?

[andicap]

I know what Diamond K was talking about.

Sounds like he has a lot of great stories about "back in the day" when people REALLY played angles because most didn't have access to fancy speed and pace figures. Except for Jules Fink and his crowd.

And I've heard about that angle -- look at the owners and/or trainer and see if they're dressed up to have their picture taken in the winner circle.

Of course it doesn't work at Saratoga where everyone gets dressed up anyway if you have a horse running.
(One of my favorite things about the Spa is going over to the paddock and seeing the "Swells" dressed to the nines in the ring with their horses.

[masterpeg]

Oh..ok..I get it now...lol

I just re read both posts, I didn't take him for a horse owner. rereading it with that assumption is does make sense.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
.....(One of my favorite things about the Spa is going over to the paddock and seeing the "Swells" dressed to the nines in the ring with their horses.

I used to love to go stand by the clubhouse side where all the rich people were sweltering in their jackets and ties and pour a cold beer over my head, dosing my tee shirt and shorts, then going, very loud,"Ahhhhhhhhhh!"
Sick boy, I.
:D

[garyoz]

I forgot to point out that among a few hundred win photo's I rarely if ever wasn't wearing a sport coat or suit.

I was in the savings and loan business in Chicago and even when running in Florida I wore a sport coat. Kind of my uniform.

I also had the largest thoroughbred insurance company outside Lloyds so most of my time was in my trailer at the track for I insured most all horses at the track I was at. In short, I would wear jeans if I thought the horse didn't have a shot. All track vets were sort of on my payroll for I paid them for exams on the horses insured. The trainers ordered the exam and I paid the vet direct. Jules Fink put all his eastern insurance business through the company and it was a sizeable account with some great horses. Some people know of him as one of the 'speed boys' of handicap lore.

Those were the days of angles but nothing like anyone dreams of today.

Back in the good 'ol days--keep the stories coming Diamond whenever you have the time and urge.

I grew up betting horses in the '60's--even without figs--it was a much more fun sport. There were seasons--nothing like opening day after no racing in a region for several months--tracks had real personalities--some of my greatest memories playing $2 parlays through my father's bookie and waiting for the results in the newspaper to see how I did...Cursing M.H. Van Berg and his favorites who dominated the midwest--but he was a saint compared to today's super trainers. Nowadays the game is too much about grind. But still the name of the game is all about connections.

[raybo]

I spend less than 15 minutes, per race, in actual handicapping time, evaluating "conditionally formatted" data in my spreadsheet program, over-riding computer selected pacelines, etc..

The remainder of the time I spend, per race, is involving tote board analysis and ticket structure, if the tote analysis results in a "go" for a wager.

[saevena]

There is very little written information about Jule Fink. The only quotation from him that I ever read spoke disparagingly of the "Johnny-come-latelies who think you can't be successful using the Daily Racing Form speed ratings and track variants." To the best of my knowledge, Fink and his compadres were the only handicappers who legally incorporated their betting enterprise.

[Johno]

All of the above times in the poll is what I use. As trite as this appears, handicapping has so many situational environments that it is impossible to answer. Generally however, the longer times to handicap may be needed if one was to play in a contest where a race must be played. For me, outside of constest considerations, if I spend a relatively long time handicapping, such as the 3rd and 4th choice in the poll, the race in unplayable. The situations go on ad infinitum.Johno

[ernie simons]

I for one, would like to hear from valupix. I'm curios as to how he comes up with those long shots.
And I wish he would post em more often. :)

[Overlay]

I'm somewhat comforted by the results of this poll. I was under the impression that in this automated age, most handicappers would be using programs to generate selections and/or odds lines in a matter of just a few minutes per race. It's nice to know that a paper-and-pencil method using a hard-copy Form can still compare favorably time-wise with the responses given here.

[raybo]

I'm somewhat comforted by the results of this poll. I was under the impression that in this automated age, most handicappers would be using programs to generate selections and/or odds lines in a matter of just a few minutes per race. It's nice to know that a paper-and-pencil method using a hard-copy Form can still compare favorably time-wise with the responses given here.

I believe that many of the handicappers who spend an hour or more handicapping a race actually use programs, not pen and pencil methods. Many of these program users use more than one program and even the ones that use only one program have many "views" to wade through. Very few programs produce a wagering result without user input, in one form or another. All this requires time. The most basic difference between pen and paper handicappers and program handicappers is the lack of mathematical errors. Another is the ability of program users to "see the whole picture", while many pen and pencil players are somewhat forced to narrow their "view" to their particular method as individual parts, thus, disengaging them from "the whole picture". I, like most here, was a pen and pencil player for years and suffered, from time to time, all the negatives I have listed. Since switching to an automated program, most, if not all of these negatives, have been removed from my play.

I chose, for many reasons, to spend the time to incorporate my previous pen and pencil methods into my own automated program. This program enabled me to find better methods in much less time than would have been necessary using pen and pencil.

My program generates it's outputs immediately, upon isolating a race from it's racecard, less than a second. However, I have over-ride abilities built into the program which allows me to look at the whole picture and make adjustments when needed, then rerun the race, less than a second again.

From start to finish usually means less than 15 minutes per race, and many times less than 5 minutes.

[Overlay]

The most basic difference between pen and paper handicappers and program handicappers is the lack of mathematical errors. Another is the ability of program users to "see the whole picture", while many pen and pencil players are somewhat forced to narrow their "view" to their particular method as individual parts, thus, disengaging them from "the whole picture".

I understand your points, but I believe that it's possible to have a pencil-and-paper method that simultaneously achieves the objectives of comprehensiveness (both in terms of the range of factors covered, and of a full-field perspective); component visibility (to permit analysis of how each part of the model is performing); and workability/ comparability from a time requirement standpoint (especially in light of the amounts of time being mentioned in the survey, whether involving automated systems or not). I grant the increased possibility of math errors, but limiting the number and complexity of calculations required to a "significant few" variables and operations helps me in that regard.

[raybo]

I understand your points, but I believe that it's possible to have a pencil-and-paper method that simultaneously achieves the objectives of comprehensiveness (both in terms of the range of factors covered, and of a full-field perspective); component visibility (to permit analysis of how each part of the model is performing); and workability/ comparability from a time requirement standpoint (especially in light of the amounts of time being mentioned in the survey, whether involving automated systems or not). I grant the increased possibility of math errors, but limiting the number and complexity of calculations required to a "significant few" variables and operations helps me in that regard.

By your including the last sentence of your reply, I agree that it is possible, albeit unlikely, that a pen and paper method could be used as accurately, as comprehensively, or as efficiently analytical as a well designed program or automated application.