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Poindexter
07-02-2017, 02:58 PM
Are there databases available for us non computer people, I would assume for a monthly fee. For instance if I wanted to see the roi/stats on 1st time starters at race track x over the last 3 years at odds group of 2-5 to 1-1. Or maybe I want to know how horses who just won a maiden claiming 5000 to 12,500 fare at the $7500 claiming level nw 2 races lifetime. Or horses that haven't raced in 365 days or more, or horses whose odds level are below 50% their morning and are under 3-1........................ Basically a series of dropdown boxes so that I can narrow my search to what specifiically I want.

JJMartin
07-02-2017, 03:31 PM
Are there databases available for us non computer people, I would assume for a monthly fee. For instance if I wanted to see the roi/stats on 1st time starters at race track x over the last 3 years at odds group of 2-5 to 1-1. Or maybe I want to know how horses who just won a maiden claiming 5000 to 12,500 fare at the $7500 claiming level nw 2 races lifetime. Or horses that haven't raced in 365 days or more, or horses whose odds level are below 50% their morning and are under 3-1........................ Basically a series of dropdown boxes so that I can narrow my search to what specifiically I want.

Sometimes you can just ask people here on PA for these types of inquiries. Queries would have to be constructed according to your precise parameters.

Tom
07-02-2017, 04:13 PM
http://horseracingdatasets.com/

Not exactly what you want, but some neat free stuff.
Hasn't been updated for a while, but worth checking back on every so often.

whodoyoulike
07-02-2017, 05:51 PM
Are there databases available for us non computer people, I would assume for a monthly fee. For instance if I wanted to see the roi/stats on 1st time starters at race track x over the last 3 years at odds group of 2-5 to 1-1. Or maybe I want to know how horses who just won a maiden claiming 5000 to 12,500 fare at the $7500 claiming level nw 2 races lifetime. Or horses that haven't raced in 365 days or more, or horses whose odds level are below 50% their morning and are under 3-1........................ Basically a series of dropdown boxes so that I can narrow my search to what specifiically I want.

I think what you are seeking may be available with the Equibase Stat Lens product. I'm not a user (yet) but I've received webinar notices which if I recall correctly mentions some of the things you've mentioned.

Btw, I'm not vouching for this program. I've only watched a few webinars which are very interesting and informative but each are about 1 hour so allocate time for each.

I think recently Ellis Starr provided a web link to their recent webinars. I think it was him. So, my suggestion is to search his recent posts. It couldn't have been more than a month ago.

JustRalph
07-02-2017, 06:06 PM
Jcapper

But you'd have to learn it. It's the best but has a learning curve.

Btw, everybody has the same data......so it's very very hard to glean anything of real value from a database or anything else nowadays.

With favorites hitting in the mid 40's ......databases lose their appeal when everybody is using the same data.

JJMartin
07-02-2017, 06:18 PM
Jcapper

But you'd have to learn it. It's the best but has a learning curve.

Btw, everybody has the same data......so it's very very hard to glean anything of real value from a database or anything else nowadays.

With favorites hitting in the mid 40's ......databases lose their appeal when everybody is using the same data.

Funny you should mention that about fav's. You are correct. The average win% for favorites is no longer the 33% it was for years. It is indeed 38-40%. There is practically no edge left in data analysis. Certainly not anything really considerable. Personally, at the current moment, it is losing its appeal.

whodoyoulike
07-02-2017, 06:45 PM
I think what you are seeking may be available with the Equibase Stat Lens product. I'm not a user (yet) but I've received webinar notices which if I recall correctly mentions some of the things you've mentioned.

Btw, I'm not vouching for this program. I've only watched a few webinars which are very interesting and informative but each are about 1 hour so allocate time for each.

I think recently Ellis Starr provided a web link to their recent webinars. I think it was him. So, my suggestion is to search his recent posts. It couldn't have been more than a month ago.

Found the webinar series link.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGhh0mIC3c56h0INsx2lD90FTTVJqvxuL

Poindexter
07-02-2017, 10:52 PM
Thanks for the input. I will look these things over.

CincyHorseplayer
07-03-2017, 04:12 PM
Handicapping information is cyclical. I see the database bet influence. It reminds me of baseball. Once someone understands sabermetrics they think they will endlessly soar over the maddening crowd. It's great for us so much is lost in these mentalities. The best thing I got right now is negative trainer patterns. And there is no database to instill my philosophy. Certain trainers get overbet. When their charges look mediocre bet heavily against. There is no common sense database!

Partsnut
07-03-2017, 04:53 PM
Are there databases available for us non computer people, I would assume for a monthly fee. For instance if I wanted to see the roi/stats on 1st time starters at race track x over the last 3 years at odds group of 2-5 to 1-1. Or maybe I want to know how horses who just won a maiden claiming 5000 to 12,500 fare at the $7500 claiming level nw 2 races lifetime. Or horses that haven't raced in 365 days or more, or horses whose odds level are below 50% their morning and are under 3-1........................ Basically a series of dropdown boxes so that I can narrow my search to what specifiically I want.

My choice would be BetMix.
It is intuitive, insightful and accurate.
It is probably one of the best data mining tools out there and offers good value at the price. You can look at a multitude of tracks per day and selectively pick the races that appeal to you. They offer lots of handicapping tools.The support and video tutorials that are second to none and you can easily get past the learning curve.:ThmbUp:

ubercapper
07-05-2017, 09:49 AM
Are there databases available for us non computer people, I would assume for a monthly fee. For instance if I wanted to see the roi/stats on 1st time starters at race track x over the last 3 years at odds group of 2-5 to 1-1. Or maybe I want to know how horses who just won a maiden claiming 5000 to 12,500 fare at the $7500 claiming level nw 2 races lifetime. Or horses that haven't raced in 365 days or more, or horses whose odds level are below 50% their morning and are under 3-1........................ Basically a series of dropdown boxes so that I can narrow my search to what specifiically I want.

Whodoyoulike is correct in that Race Lens does have the ability to query the Equibase database and research these types of things. We wanted to include everything but the kitchen sink in terms data points from pp's in the criteria to allow users to to this and I feel we've achieved a lot in that regard.

In terms of the specific examples mentioned, the queries for first timers go back one year in the angles module and for jockey research and up to five years when doing research on trainers, sires and dams.

In terms of claiming levels we incorporated percentages up and down instead of the dollar amounts and do have most classes as a separate criteria so you could do a query on last start in a maiden claiming and won the race and raised in class greater than 50%. There are also criteria regarding days between starts ranging from '1 to 7 days' up to 'more than 180 days."

The one criteria that is absent from the examples above is morning line odds.

Almost all queries use 'and' as an operator so you can combine as many or as few as you like.

Good Luck.

Partsnut
07-05-2017, 12:20 PM
Whodoyoulike is correct in that Race Lens does have the ability to query the Equibase database and research these types of things. We wanted to include everything but the kitchen sink in terms data points from pp's in the criteria to allow users to to this and I feel we've achieved a lot in that regard.
Good Luck.

At first Glance "Stats Race Lens" looks interesting but from what I can
see from yesterdays 4 horse free race from Finger Lakes, not very predictive. As with most software out there, it seems to lean towards the favorite.
I also noticed that the final live odds were not included in the results model for that Finger Lakes 7th race on 07-04-17.

The flexibility, presentation and user interaction of the tools offered for me, were less then adequate. I favor something a little bit more thought provoking where I can derive the "value" horse". To me, and as far as I was able to see, this was not much of an option.
Actually, I've seen some the options that Stats Race Lens presently offers in other software service products. These options being offered by "Stats Race Lens",collectively and individually, were not appealing to me. In my opinion,they seem to be a re-make and poor representation of features currently being offered by "Time Form and BetMix".

I guess the best way for anyone who has interest in any product is to make a judgement for themselves.
Different strokes for different folks.:D

AltonKelsey
07-06-2017, 05:49 PM
Handicapping information is cyclical. I see the database bet influence. It reminds me of baseball. Once someone understands sabermetrics they think they will endlessly soar over the maddening crowd. It's great for us so much is lost in these mentalities. The best thing I got right now is negative trainer patterns. And there is no database to instill my philosophy. Certain trainers get overbet. When their charges look mediocre bet heavily against. There is no common sense database!


Good track bias and post parade work is worth money. And with big fields you can spot things many miss. These tiny fields nearly eliminate subtle trip info.

whodoyoulike
07-06-2017, 06:31 PM
Handicapping information is cyclical. I see the database bet influence. It reminds me of baseball. Once someone understands sabermetrics they think they will endlessly soar over the maddening crowd. It's great for us so much is lost in these mentalities. The best thing I got right now is :1: negative trainer patterns. And there is no database to instill my philosophy. :2: Certain trainers get overbet. When their charges look mediocre bet heavily against. There is no common sense database!

:1: I'm unsure what you mean by negative trainer patterns.

:2: Are you referring to what I consider as false favorites?

Or, what I hope everybody does by betting overlays versus underlays. Except, I don't just bet all of my overlays because I'm very selective and basically bet on the way I see the race unfolding.

acorn54
07-07-2017, 02:00 AM
a delineation of what are called "overlays", there are "price horses", especially in large fields that are overlays, but i wouldn't bet them if they are at 20-1 and my estimation is 10-1, which translates that if the race was run 11 times, i would cash one ticket and have 10 losing tickets. no thank you. that is not a "value" bet. a overlay that is a value bet as opposed to a overlay that is a price horse, is a very important delineation.

ReplayRandall
07-07-2017, 02:11 AM
a delineation of what are called "overlays", there are "price horses", especially in large fields that are overlays, but i wouldn't bet them if they are at 20-1 and my estimation is 10-1, which translates that if the race was run 11 times, i would cash one ticket and have 10 losing tickets. no thank you. that is not a "value" bet. a overlay that is a value bet as opposed to a overlay that is a price horse, is a very important delineation.

20-1 and above horses are how you make big scores in this game, in any pool. If you have the ability to make good lines, and can get down on a 100% edge, it doesn't get any better than that in ANY game.....That's how $2 bettors turn in to $200 bettors, plus rebates.

acorn54
07-07-2017, 02:33 AM
20-1 and above horses are how you make big scores in this game, in any pool. If you have the ability to make good lines, and can get down on a 100% edge, it doesn't get any better than that in ANY game.....That's how $2 bettors turn in to $200 bettors, plus rebates.

sounds good. the most accurate odds line i have ever seen is the software program black magic. unfortunately the problem is that there is more than one overlay in a race, finding a race with only one easily detectable overlay above 15-1 or therabouts is rarer than finding a hen's tooth. i agree with you that bombs really accelerate the growth of a bankroll, i salute you on your discipline in waiting out those easily detectable lone overlays and the long run-outs.

DeltaLover
07-07-2017, 11:40 AM
sounds good. the most accurate odds line i have ever seen is the software program black magic. unfortunately the problem is that there is more than one overlay in a race, finding a race with only one easily detectable overlay above 15-1 or therabouts is rarer than finding a hen's tooth. i agree with you that bombs really accelerate the growth of a bankroll, i salute you on your discipline in waiting out those easily detectable lone overlays and the long run-outs.

How do you measure the accuracy of odds lines?

acorn54
07-07-2017, 12:14 PM
How do you measure the accuracy of odds lines?

a few ways depending on the software. some software you can keep records of the strike rate of the programs odds line in relation to the post time prob. that's it simply put.

ubercapper
07-07-2017, 03:20 PM
At first Glance "Stats Race Lens" looks interesting but from what I can
see from yesterdays 4 horse free race from Finger Lakes, not very predictive. As with most software out there, it seems to lean towards the favorite.
I also noticed that the final live odds were not included in the results model for that Finger Lakes 7th race on 07-04-17.

The flexibility, presentation and user interaction of the tools offered for me, were less then adequate. I favor something a little bit more thought provoking where I can derive the "value" horse". To me, and as far as I was able to see, this was not much of an option.
Actually, I've seen some the options that Stats Race Lens presently offers in other software service products. These options being offered by "Stats Race Lens",collectively and individually, were not appealing to me. In my opinion,they seem to be a re-make and poor representation of features currently being offered by "Time Form and BetMix".

I guess the best way for anyone who has interest in any product is to make a judgement for themselves.
Different strokes for different folks.:D

That's just the "True Odds" module, which uses Stats algorithms.

My takeaway from what the OP was asking was a way to do queries on a database in a variety of ways without spending a lot of money and that's what the "Angles" and "Research" modules accomplish.

The Research modules and the tools therein are accessible (but without full functionality) via the "Race of the Day" by clicking on PPs then any trainer name. The Angles module is only available to subscribers.

However, the videos describing them (Narrated by Tom Durkin) are all available within the product on the Free Race of the Day via the ? icon and they provide an overview of what's available.

The webinars also contain a lot of demonstrations for those purposes.

I don't want to anger the moderators because I am just addressing the OP's question and one response that followed and do not want to sound like I'm promoting the product, so I'll just end with saying the videos are also available via bringingclaritytohandicapping.com via the online education link on the top navigation bar.

chaz63
07-09-2017, 03:39 AM
HSH.....most or all the professional horseplayers use that one.....well, the winning ones anyway

plainolebill
07-11-2017, 02:15 AM
HSH.....most or all the professional horseplayers use that one.....well, the winning ones anyway

What program do the losing professional horseplayers use?

chaz63
07-11-2017, 03:13 AM
What program do the losing professional horseplayers use?

Everything else

green80
07-16-2017, 03:58 PM
What program do the losing professional horseplayers use?

Anything by RPM...

chaz63
07-17-2017, 02:41 AM
I want to amend my statement....Pandy puts out some excellent products as well...including the only good harness software out there that I know of

acorn54
07-17-2017, 03:35 AM
i have seen and tried alot of horse wagering products. to paraphrase shakespeare ;"the fault lies not with our handicapping tool(s), dear brutus, but within ourselves".

thaskalos
07-21-2017, 02:54 PM
i have seen and tried alot of horse wagering products. to paraphrase shakespeare ;"the fault lies not with our handicapping tool(s), dear brutus, but within ourselves".

It's our fault...and it's the merchants' fault as well. In the horse-betting game...there is enough blame to go around.

It's the merchants' fault for lying to us about their products...and it's our fault for being attracted to the lies.

Franco Santiago
07-22-2017, 09:30 PM
HSH.....most or all the professional horseplayers use that one.....well, the winning ones anyway

How do you know? Did they tell you?

mikesal57
07-24-2017, 08:47 AM
It's our fault...and it's the merchants' fault as well. In the horse-betting game...there is enough blame to go around.

It's the merchants' fault for lying to us about their products...and it's our fault for being attracted to the lies.

lets rephrase that ..."and it's our fault for being..... suckers"

:lol:

chaz63
07-31-2017, 10:35 AM
How do you know? Did they tell you?
Yes

acorn54
07-31-2017, 09:33 PM
just got cx wong's book "precision". mr wong is a member of a syndicate in hong kong. very interesting and enlightening book. he has in, one of the last chapters, how the typical syndicate is structured. there is a statistical modeler, ( no pre-packaged software from vendors), and they have a trip handicapper, and an expert of horse body language, and an "insider", (yes, there are betting coups). the syndicates use all of this info.
i highly recommend this book, worth every penny.

DeltaLover
07-31-2017, 10:52 PM
just got cx wong's book "precision". mr wong is a member of a syndicate in hong kong. very interesting and enlightening book. he has in, one of the last chapters, how the typical syndicate is structured. there is a statistical modeler, ( no pre-packaged software from vendors), and they have a trip handicapper, and an expert of horse body language, and an "insider", (yes, there are betting coups). the syndicates use all of this info.
i highly recommend this book, worth every penny.

I find it terribly antiquated by today's standards.

acorn54
08-01-2017, 12:10 AM
I find it terribly antiquated by today's standards.

i would be very interested if you would elaborate on a more precise method of placing a probability on a horse winning than using multinominal logistic regression,in combination with factoring horses trips, and physicality in pre-race appearance.

DeltaLover
08-01-2017, 09:07 AM
i would be very interested if you would elaborate on a more precise method of placing a probability on a horse winning than using multinominal logistic regression,in combination with factoring horses trips, and physicality in pre-race appearance.

Start here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network
https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.04467
http://ufldl.stanford.edu/tutorial/supervised/SoftmaxRegression
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Softmax_function

Some books you might find helpful:

https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-Modern-Approach-3rd/dp/0136042597/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1501589045&sr=8-2&keywords=modern+artificial+intelligence

https://www.amazon.com/Machine-Learning-Optimization-Perspective-Developers/dp/0128015225/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1501589099&sr=1-1&keywords=machine+learning+theodoridis

https://www.amazon.com/Hands-Machine-Learning-Scikit-Learn-TensorFlow/dp/1491962291/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1501589125&sr=1-1&keywords=machine+learning+tensorflow

Again the book you are talking about (and Benter's approach in general which is based in multinomial logit) is good only as an introduction.

acorn54
08-01-2017, 11:39 AM
delta thanks for the lincks.

DeltaLover
08-01-2017, 12:34 PM
You need to understand that logistic regression is a special case of a more general non-linear paradigm (neural network) which can solve problems that are impossible to be solved by linear relations. This does not mean that NN is the silver bullet as linear approaches are still used heavily to solve many problems; what is important though is to have the knowledge and experience to apply the most applicable algorithm for each case.

To get a simplified and intuitive understanding of the multinomial logit you can think that the initial assumption is that the ability of each horse (for example expressed in speed figures) is following a normally distributed curve whose mean and sigma depends on the features of each individual horse.

For example, for two horses that are facing each other using the logit method you can imagine that each of them is assigned a mean speed figure and a sigma. Letís say that these values are as follows:

A: mean 98 sigma 6
B: mean 102 sigma 12

If you plot both of them in the same graph, the probability of A beating B equals the probability of A running a larger figure that B and vice versa:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=20566&stc=1&d=1501601638

Note that in this example, although the 102/12 is faster than the 98/6, you can visualize that the latter is still winning many times (when the blue are is higher than the orange).

Try to understand how this can be extracted from the graph and think of why this approach might be wrong and you will see that this approach has a lot of room for improvement.

acorn54
08-01-2017, 05:41 PM
i understand that multinominal logistic regression is not the silver bullet for paths to profits. the 64k question is when to know what model to use for best evaluation.

DeltaLover
08-01-2017, 05:56 PM
i understand that multinominal logistic regression is not the silver bullet for paths to profits. the 64k question is when to know what model to use for best evaluation.

There is no analytical methodology to decide "A priori" whether logistic regression will be sufficient for your problem or not. Usually the only way is to try several different approaches and pick the best among them (or create an "ensemble" of the most promising solutions and use all of them based on some type of a voting mechanism. There exist problems that fit very well in linear (or logistic) regression and there are others that are impossible to be solved without the introduction of "hidden" processing layers as it happens in Deep Learning NN for example. An example of the former, is the creation of a par-times model that predicts the final time of a race based on factors like distance, classification, age and sex while a typical example of the latter can be found in the solution of the XOR operator, something that is impossible to achieve using logistic regression without the addition of a hidden layer (perceptron).

Mdnspecialist
11-09-2017, 01:13 AM
My choice would be BetMix.
It is intuitive, insightful and accurate.
It is probably one of the best data mining tools out there and offers good value at the price. You can look at a multitude of tracks per day and selectively pick the races that appeal to you. They offer lots of handicapping tools.The support and video tutorials that are second to none and you can easily get past the learning curve.:ThmbUp:

I've been using betmix for about three months now. Angler is what hooked me. It took some time to figure it out. Still learning. I'll work on an angle then take a break. It's very time consuming. I created an angle last month that showed a profit of $4,015 from January 1st, 2013 through October 15th, 2017. Profitable every year. It's 493 winners out of 2609 races which is 18.89%. It shows all the races associated with the angle you've created. There are some mind blowing losing streaks that would bring most handicappers to their knees. Still tinkering with it, though. Going to try and bring the win percentage up. You do that by eliminating more losing races than winners, obviously. And at the same time, not eliminate too many long priced winners. Because this is a long shot angle for sure. It probably took me three weeks to create this angle. I'd say a 100 plus hours. It currently is on one of those losing streaks. 2 for it's last 28..-$37.40. There has been worse losing streaks as I look over all the races. 37 straight losses. 2 for 42. But it always seems to pull out of it. A 2,000 unit profitable angle is something that you just don't see. What I'll do is build an angle with as many races as possible and breaking even. Then start to break it down. This angle was 951/6276 15.2% win rate and -$243. Then slowly, I eliminated races. I think it's possible I can create one that shows even more of a profit. I'll wait another month to see if this angle pulls itself out of the current losing streak. Based on the past 57 months. I just don't see why it won't.