HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SAT 7/1

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 7 races on the Turf and 3 on the Dirt.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will follow and will ALL be based on a static tote analysis.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.

Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #3 - #6 - #8 - #9
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) T….….2-7 W/ 12-1-4-14 ……...1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1200M (6F) T…......1-4 W/ 6-3-7-9 …….…..1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & & #2 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1650M (8.25F) D.....6-1 W/ 2-3-9-4..........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 & & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 2000M (10F) T…....2-5 W/ 6-4-3-1…...........2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) T.……1-2 W/ 8-5-4-6….............3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1800M (9F) D….....8-9 W/ 2-3-7-10……........3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1400M (7F) T…....2-1 W/ 3-11-8-6...........4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1650M (8.25F) D…6-5 W/ 2-12-1-8 ….......4:40 AM EST


R#9 - 1400M (7F) T.…...4-3 W/ 13-9-10-12 ….....5:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & &1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1200M (6F) T.......1-4 W/ 6-12-13-5 ….....5:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, :faint:
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-7 W/ 12-1-4-14 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 7-2-12-14 – Dutch 67% Profit Margin – HIT

2nd choice $6.00 Early & Live & $39.50 QUIN / $406.20 TRI – (Some very nice Value!)

All the late money came in on the Winner - 4.7/1 to 3/1

[Nitro]

Results: R#1 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 5.4 8.1 BET PRF
$6 $13 $18
$18 $9 $6 $33 $22 67%
$55 $55 $55

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-4 W/ 6-3-7-9 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 3-1-6-9 – Dutch 118% Profit Margin - HIT

4th choice $10.70 Early & 2nd choice Live & $62.40 QUIN / $445.00 TRI Bx – More great value!

Lots of solid early action on the Winner w/Moreira on board – a definite live entry

[Nitro]

Results: R#2 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.3 5.8 7.1 BET PRF
$11 $14 $16
$16 $13 $11 $39 $46 118%
$86 $86 $86

[AltonKelsey]

R#2 - 1-4 W/ 6-3-7-9 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 3-1-6-9 – Dutch 118% Profit Margin - HIT

4th choice $10.70 Early & 2nd choice Live & $62.40 QUIN / $445.00 TRI Bx – More great value!

Lots of solid early action on the Winner w/Moreira on board – a definite live entry

I watched the betting. So let me get this straight.

Early money = LIVE
Late money =LIVE
Steady money = LIVE


There was also a few in there that took HEAVY late action 12-1, to 6-1 , so there must have been 10 live ones.

[Nitro]

R#3 - 6-1 W/ 2-3-9-4 – Nothing there

Live Tote Results: 5-2-12-1 – Dutch 132% Profit Margin - OUT

Out Early & Live

Big long shot wires the field - 1st time on the dirt!

[Nitro]

Results: R#3 – Live Dutch OUT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 6.8 8.7 BET PRF
$10 $16 $19
$19 $12 $10 $42 $55 132%
$97 $97 $97

[Nitro]

I watched the betting. So let me get this straight.

Early money = LIVE
Late money =LIVE
Steady money = LIVE


There was also a few in there that took HEAVY late action 12-1, to 6-1 , so there must have been 10 live ones.

You may think you're watching the betting but in reality you don't have a clue as to what's really going on, especially since you're only viewing a single pool. You can't analyze the betting by simply looking at the Win pool!

There's a relationship taking place that a basic perusal of just the odds completely misses.

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-5 W/ 6-4-3-1

Live Tote Results: 4-8-10-2 – Dutch 42% Profit Margin - PASS

4th choice $18.20 Early & 3rd choice Live – No significant action on #5 and dropped

[Nitro]

Results: R#4 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 3.5 8.1 BET PRF
$5 $9 $18
$18 $11 $5 $35 $15 42%
$49 $49 $49

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 8-5-4-6 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 2-4-1-10 – Dutch 35% Profit Margin - PASS

2ND choice $10.30 Early & Live & $58.70 QUIN / $347.20 TRI BX - More great value!

[Nitro]

Results: R#5 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.4 4.1 6.7 BET PRF
$5 $10 $15
$15 $7 $5 $27 $10 35%
$37 $37 $37

[Nitro]

R#6 - 8-9 W/ 2-3-7-10 –

Live Tote Results: 10-13-9-11 – Live Dutch 184% Profit Margin - HIT

6th choice $13.90 Early & 3rd choice Live –

Big Quinella activity on the Winner & No action on #2 and dropped

[Nitro]

Results: R#6 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.9 8.3 9.0 BET PRF
$14 $19 $20
$20 $15 $14 $49 $89 184%
$138 $138 $138

[Nitro]

R#7 - 2-1 W/ 3-11-8-6 -

Live Tote Results: 8-13-11-5 – Dutch 31% Profit Margin - PASS

5th choice $30.00 early & Live

#6 completely dead on the board @ 352/1 and dropped

[Nitro]

Results: R#7 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.3 3.8 7.2 BET PRF
$5 $10 $16
$16 $8 $5 $29 $9 31%
$38 $38 $38

[Nitro]

R#8 - 6-5 W/ 2-12-1-8 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 12-6-5-9 - Dutch 66% Profit Margin - HIT

4th choice $7.40 Early & 3rd choice Live & $23.70 QUIN / $219.00 TRI BX

Only marginal activity on #2 caused swap with #12 which saw solid action across the board

[Nitro]

Results: R#8 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.7 4.5 5.7 BET PRF
$7 $11 $13
$13 $9 $7 $30 $20 66%
$50 $50 $50

[Nitro]

R#9 - 4-3 W/ 13-9-10-12 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 12-4-9-3 - Dutch 47% Profit Margin – PASS

6th choice $22.90 Early & 4th choice Live & $50.70 QUIN / $2,916.60 TRI BX – Terrific Value!

I’m looking forward to the day they allow Superfecta betting. That one paid $17,592.60

[Nitro]

Results: R#9 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 4.0 4.7 BET PRF
$7 $10 $11
$11 $8 $7 $26 $12 47%
$38 $38 $38

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-4 W/ 6-12-13-5 –All of that one! (w/#3 Tote Watch as 6th choice – Fin. 2nd)

Live Tote Results: 12-3-1-6 - Dutch 29% Profit Margin - PASS

4th choice $7.60 Early & 3rd choice Live & $48.60 QUIN / $702.00 TRI BX

(#3 Tote Watch got solid action across the board & #5 Dropped as 6th choice – No action on the board)

[Nitro]

Results: R#10 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 2.8 7.9 BET PRF
$5 $8 $18
$18 $12 $5 $35 $10 29%
$45 $45 $45

[Nitro]

O.A. Win Dutching Summary – 10 Races

(4) HITS – (1) OUT – (5) PASSED

Verticals - (6) Quinellas & (6) Triples

Another BIG night (morning) @ Hong Kong!

[FakeNameChanged]

R#1 - 2-7 W/ 12-1-4-14 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 7-2-12-14 – Dutch 67% Profit Margin – HIT

2nd choice $6.00 Early & Live & $39.50 QUIN / $406.20 TRI – (Some very nice Value!)

All the late money came in on the Winner - 4.7/1 to 3/1
Nitro, wouldn't that late money be 2/1 odds if the winner paid 6.00? I've yet to stay up late enough to watch HK so maybe I don't understand their odds. Nice hit on triple btw.

[AltonKelsey]

You may think you're watching the betting but in reality you don't have a clue as to what's really going on, especially since you're only viewing a single pool. You can't analyze the betting by simply looking at the Win pool!

There's a relationship taking place that a basic perusal of just the odds completely misses.


Wrong. Wrong. and Wrong.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-7 W/ 12-1-4-14 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 7-2-12-14 – Dutch 67% Profit Margin – HIT

2nd choice $6.00 Early & Live & $39.50 QUIN / $406.20 TRI – (Some very nice Value!)

All the late money came in on the Winner - 4.7/1 to 3/1

Nitro, wouldn't that late money be 2/1 odds if the winner paid 6.00? I've yet to stay up late enough to watch HK so maybe I don't understand their odds. Nice hit on triple btw.
You're correct. That was simply a typo. As you can see from the post that followed the one you quoted, the 1st entry shown in the Dutch result was in fact 2/1.
Results: R#1 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 5.4 8.1 BET PRF
$6 $13 $18
$18 $9 $6 $33 $22 67%
$55 $55 $55

[Nitro]

Wrong. Wrong. and Wrong.

Well if that's the case, you must be using a sophisticated tote analysis program like mine.
Then again if you were, there would have been no reason to post your original incredulous and foolhardy statement. (below) Like I said you don't have a clue!

But that's okay. I seems you're more interested in getting HK past performances formatted like the Daily Racing form. Sounds like a pretty lame excuse to me considering what's already available from the HKJC.

I watched the betting. So let me get this straight.

Early money = LIVE
Late money =LIVE
Steady money = LIVE

There was also a few in there that took HEAVY late action 12-1, to 6-1 , so there must have been 10 live ones.

[soonboomer]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 7 races on the Turf and 3 on the Dirt.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will follow and will ALL be based on a static tote analysis.


Do you ever post your "live selections" and if not, why not?

[Nitro]

Do you ever post your "live selections" and if not, why not?
Posted them here every weekend for a couple of years, and I was surprised how many other members were also interested in HK racing. Many joined in for a while, but I guess like anything else everyone has their priorities. My priority was to always focus on playing. Unfortunately, because of the slight delay in the HK tote feed there’s a conflict in trying to place well thought out bets and posting live selections, especially in the wee hours of the morning when concentration levels can be compromised. Besides, in case you haven’t noticed my early selections have been producing very nice, especially if you understand how to use Key selections.

[AltonKelsey]

Do you ever post your "live selections" and if not, why not?

It would take about 3 seconds to post any supposed 'live' adds before the gates opened. Or verify that the race was actually a pass.

Would certainly add some
Veracity (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/veracity)



to the proceedings.

[soonboomer]

Posted them here every weekend for a couple of years, and I was surprised how many other members were also interested in HK racing. Many joined in for a while, but I guess like anything else everyone has their priorities. My priority was to always focus on playing. Unfortunately, because of the slight delay in the HK tote feed there’s a conflict in trying to place well thought out bets and posting live selections, especially in the wee hours of the morning when concentration levels can be compromised. Besides, in case you haven’t noticed my early selections have been producing very nice, especially if you understand how to use Key selections.

I guess that depends on how you're using them. As an example, in race 1, they finished 2nd choice/1st choice/3rd choice. If someone was wagering based on your early selections, that would have been a logical play for them. Race 9 is a less clear. They finished 6th choice/1st choice/4th choice. Possible, but not a given that someone should have had that one. Also had a question about the "also of interest" horses. Is it fair to assume that they are horses that, if they become live due to tote action, you drop one of the original early picks that might be dead on the tote board, and substitute them for the "dead" horse? It wasn't clear because it only seems that these "also of interest" horses are only mentioned when they figure into the exotics, and are never substituted for any horse in the early selections that happened to finish in the top 3. I'm always fascinated by "out of the box" handicapping methods.......just looking for a little clarity.