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View Full Version : Dave Gutfreund Video says why he's had enough of horse racing. Will stick to Poker.


Andy Asaro
06-27-2017, 08:24 AM
https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/879675958797623296

DeltaLover
06-27-2017, 08:42 AM
https://youtu.be/Tf_RnRhA5aw?t=2m9s

@2:09

What's wrong with the computer programmers?

JimG
06-27-2017, 09:29 AM
I always enjoyed the Starting Gate radio show he did in the late 90's. Anyone remember that?

spiketoo
06-27-2017, 10:12 AM
Need a lil context here. Before he starts in as Capt Obvious to us in this room, he states a lawsuit went wrong which is why he he soured on racing. Sup wit dat?

jballscalls
06-27-2017, 10:51 AM
Need a lil context here. Before he starts in as Capt Obvious to us in this room, he states a lawsuit went wrong which is why he he soured on racing. Sup wit dat?

I believe Dave is part of the DerbyWars team

Charli125
06-27-2017, 11:44 AM
I believe Dave is part of the DerbyWars team

That's correct.

ReplayRandall
06-27-2017, 11:59 AM
In the video, Gutfreund is a dead-ringer for Steely Dan's Donald Fagen...:cool:

dilanesp
06-27-2017, 02:41 PM
He's playing a type of poker (large field, deep stack tournaments) that is basically pure gambling for all but a tiny number of elite players (and I'm not even sure about them-- it's possible that someone like Phil Hellmuth may just have a ton of rungood, as there are a number of players who are considered highly skilled who have mediocre results in deep-stack large field tournaments).

I hope for his sake that if he actually plans to play poker full time, he focuses on playing types of poker that he can be consistently profitable in over a large sample size. If he just wants to hit a jackpot payout in in the WSOP, might as well just play the lottery. It's less work and the chances are about the same. :)

aaron
06-27-2017, 03:44 PM
Good job by Dave,concisely stating some of the biggest problems in horse racing, that never get addressed by horse racing columnists or commentators.

kingfin66
06-27-2017, 09:32 PM
I have never heard of him, but I am glad to see him speaking out about a few of the problems in racing. He is absolutely right that the value is gone. Seems like a nice guy and well-known to some of you. As for poker, I don't know that the fact that he was interviewed during a WSOP event means that he only plays big tournaments. Many pros play both cash games and tournaments. Best of luck to him.

Small thing; did his glasses look crooked on his face?

kingfin66
06-27-2017, 09:35 PM
https://youtu.be/Tf_RnRhA5aw?t=2m9s

@2:09

What's wrong with the computer programmers?

Delta, he said late odds changes right after computer programmers. Perhaps he is referring to those computer 'capping whales that send money in right up to (after?) the race is off. It is the concept of arbitrage; good for them, bad for most. It is similar to the Bid/Ask concept in stock trading. The retail customer gets burned while the whales have a decided advantage. This is pure speculation on my part in trying to answer your question.

AltonKelsey
06-27-2017, 11:56 PM
The late odds changes have been happening for decades. imo, way too much is made of it as a negative factor in anyone's game.

In order to have value , regularly, in a game with a confiscatory takeout, you need a steady and abundant supply of suckers.

Do we have that?

That said, if you do the hard work, and have loads of patience, there is still opportunity. If you want to bet every race or 20 races a day in simulcasts, you probably can't find that much edge.

barn32
06-27-2017, 11:59 PM
He's playing a type of poker (large field, deep stack tournaments) that is basically pure gambling for all but a tiny number of elite players (and I'm not even sure about them-- it's possible that someone like Phil Hellmuth may just have a ton of rungood, as there are a number of players who are considered highly skilled who have mediocre results in deep-stack large field tournaments).

I hope for his sake that if he actually plans to play poker full time, he focuses on playing types of poker that he can be consistently profitable in over a large sample size. If he just wants to hit a jackpot payout in in the WSOP, might as well just play the lottery. It's less work and the chances are about the same. :)The guy elected to play in a tournament for Christ sakes. Give him a ****ing break.

SandyW
06-28-2017, 02:53 AM
He's playing a type of poker (large field, deep stack tournaments) that is basically pure gambling for all but a tiny number of elite players (and I'm not even sure about them-- it's possible that someone like Phil Hellmuth may just have a ton of rungood, as there are a number of players who are considered highly skilled who have mediocre results in deep-stack large field tournaments).

I hope for his sake that if he actually plans to play poker full time, he focuses on playing types of poker that he can be consistently profitable in over a large sample size. If he just wants to hit a jackpot payout in in the WSOP, might as well just play the lottery. It's less work and the chances are about the same. :)

Don't worry about David Gutfreund, a very smart player and gambler, comes from a very wealthy family. I wish I was half the handicapper that he is.

AltonKelsey
06-28-2017, 12:20 PM
Don't worry about David Gutfreund, a very smart player and gambler, comes from a very wealthy family. I wish I was half the handicapper that he is.

I don't know the guy or much about him, but if that's the case, then the only skill you need is not burning through your inheritance before you croak.

Everything else is just amusement.

AndyC
06-28-2017, 03:00 PM
He's playing a type of poker (large field, deep stack tournaments) that is basically pure gambling for all but a tiny number of elite players (and I'm not even sure about them-- it's possible that someone like Phil Hellmuth may just have a ton of rungood, as there are a number of players who are considered highly skilled who have mediocre results in deep-stack large field tournaments).

I hope for his sake that if he actually plans to play poker full time, he focuses on playing types of poker that he can be consistently profitable in over a large sample size. If he just wants to hit a jackpot payout in in the WSOP, might as well just play the lottery. It's less work and the chances are about the same. :)

Dave is no Johnny-come-lately to poker. He has had a fair amount of success in tournament play. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-players/74536-david-gutfreund/results/overall

I met him back in the eighties at a Las Vegas handicapping contest and saw him at numerous other tourneys. He is a gifted handicapper having won, I believe, 9 handicapping tournaments. He was a valuable member of the NTRA Player's Panel helping shape the (mostly ignored) recommendations to improve racing for the players and ultimately for the tracks.

ReplayRandall
06-28-2017, 03:26 PM
Dave is no Johnny-come-lately to poker. He has had a fair amount of success in tournament play. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-players/74536-david-gutfreund/results/overall

Here's a better, more current look at Dave's poker success:

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=97540&_ga=2.74925394.1142975830.1498677741-997265695.1498677741

dilanesp
06-28-2017, 03:29 PM
Dave is no Johnny-come-lately to poker. He has had a fair amount of success in tournament play. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-players/74536-david-gutfreund/results/overall

I met him back in the eighties at a Las Vegas handicapping contest and saw him at numerous other tourneys. He is a gifted handicapper having won, I believe, 9 handicapping tournaments. He was a valuable member of the NTRA Player's Panel helping shape the (mostly ignored) recommendations to improve racing for the players and ultimately for the tracks.

He has a ridiculously good record in smaller buy-in tournaments, which is where you can make bank. I don't understand why someone like that would waste his summer playing the WSOP, which takes a ton of time and is basically a lottery.

But then, I don't really understand why any intelligent person plays the WSOP. It's the Rainbow 6 of the poker world.

AndyC
06-28-2017, 04:37 PM
He has a ridiculously good record in smaller buy-in tournaments, which is where you can make bank. I don't understand why someone like that would waste his summer playing the WSOP, which takes a ton of time and is basically a lottery.

But then, I don't really understand why any intelligent person plays the WSOP. It's the Rainbow 6 of the poker world.

Can you finish 39th and cash for $24,717 in the Rainbow 6? If you look at his record you will see that he was cashing in other tournaments while the 2017 was/is going on.

dilanesp
06-28-2017, 05:16 PM
Can you finish 39th and cash for $24,717 in the Rainbow 6? If you look at his record you will see that he was cashing in other tournaments while the 2017 was/is going on.

Presumably he isn't playing in one WSOP tournament. $24,717 is just a keep-afloat if you are playing a reasonably full WSOP schedule (it costs $1500 to $5000 for each tournament buy-in).

You have to make final tables, because the payouts are titled towards final tables. And the fields are so large that making final tables is essentially random variance (MAYBE unless you are Phil Hellmuth, who seems able to do it year after year, but as I said, he might just be the ultimate beneficiary of rungood).

And you are spending a ton of time NOT playing in profitable $350 buy-in tournaments (or cash games!- the most profitable thing to do in Las Vegas during the WSOP is probably playing in the cash games against the tilting players who get knocked out of WSOP events!) in order to play in the WSOP. A WSOP event takes several days.

It's just a ridiculous example of irrational gambling- dreaming of a gigantic life-changing score and paying a huge opportunity cost to chase it. And those WSOP events draw hundreds and sometimes thousands of entrants!

It's not amazing to me that Ben Affleck would play the WSOP. But a seriously, profitable, rational gambler? This is a testament to the pathologies of gamblers.

AndyC
06-28-2017, 06:12 PM
Presumably he isn't playing in one WSOP tournament. $24,717 is just a keep-afloat if you are playing a reasonably full WSOP schedule (it costs $1500 to $5000 for each tournament buy-in).

You have to make final tables, because the payouts are titled towards final tables. And the fields are so large that making final tables is essentially random variance (MAYBE unless you are Phil Hellmuth, who seems able to do it year after year, but as I said, he might just be the ultimate beneficiary of rungood).

And you are spending a ton of time NOT playing in profitable $350 buy-in tournaments (or cash games!- the most profitable thing to do in Las Vegas during the WSOP is probably playing in the cash games against the tilting players who get knocked out of WSOP events!) in order to play in the WSOP. A WSOP event takes several days.

It's just a ridiculous example of irrational gambling- dreaming of a gigantic life-changing score and paying a huge opportunity cost to chase it. And those WSOP events draw hundreds and sometimes thousands of entrants!

It's not amazing to me that Ben Affleck would play the WSOP. But a seriously, profitable, rational gambler? This is a testament to the pathologies of gamblers.

I think the good players have proven that it is not irrational gambling. If the entry fees were just a pittance of his bankroll would it still be irrational?

dilanesp
06-28-2017, 08:40 PM
I think the good players have proven that it is not irrational gambling. If the entry fees were just a pittance of his bankroll would it still be irrational?

There's a very small list of players (Hellmuth, and maybe a few other players) who have had any consistency in getting to final tables (the only way to make money) in WSOP events. The variance is SO high that it's hard to tell if even they have cracked the code; nonetheless, the vast majority of even "top" pros, including some of the biggest money winners in online play and some of the biggest stars of televised poker, clearly have not. Lots of people who the poker community considers to be great no limit players have played a couple of years worth of full time WSOP schedules without getting to a single final table.

It's quite possible to cash 5 or 10 times a year if you are good, but cashes just keep you afloat, and a lot of the people who have 30 or 40 lifetime cashes have actually played in 25 WSOP events for 8 years or something, and are lifetime losers in the WSOP.

And as I said, the key point is the opportunity cost. During the WSOP, there are soft mid-stakes cash games which cater to the players who bust out of the tournaments and where a skilled no limit player ought to be able to clear $100 an hour. Plus, it certainly looks like Gutfreund makes a big profit playing ordinary $350 buy-in tournaments with smaller fields, i.e., less variance. He's giving that up to play in WSOP events with dubious EV.

The WSOP is a sucker bet for all but perhaps the very highest echelon of poker pros (and as I said, we really don't even know that, because with the variance being so high, it's possible that Hellmuth is just the person on the tail of the curve).

AndyC
06-30-2017, 02:42 PM
.......The WSOP is a sucker bet for all but perhaps the very highest echelon of poker pros (and as I said, we really don't even know that, because with the variance being so high, it's possible that Hellmuth is just the person on the tail of the curve).

It is my understanding that many of the players get sponsored or sell a percentage of their winnings. Wouldn't you want a free roll in the main event?

AndyC
07-18-2017, 03:06 PM
.......It's just a ridiculous example of irrational gambling- dreaming of a gigantic life-changing score and paying a huge opportunity cost to chase it. And those WSOP events draw hundreds and sometimes thousands of entrants!

It's not amazing to me that Ben Affleck would play the WSOP. But a seriously, profitable, rational gambler? This is a testament to the pathologies of gamblers.

So Dave had a not so great finish in the main event. Finished 738.

$ 10,000 No Limit Hold'em - Main Event Championship (Event #73)
48th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2017, Las Vegas 738th $ 18,693

Is it really irrational gambling when a decent player can take a shot, finish 738 and still make $8,693?

dilanesp
07-18-2017, 03:16 PM
So Dave had a not so great finish in the main event. Finished 738.

$ 10,000 No Limit Hold'em - Main Event Championship (Event #73)
48th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2017, Las Vegas 738th $ 18,693

Is it really irrational gambling when a decent player can take a shot, finish 738 and still make $8,693?

That's a less than even money payoff (4 to 5) on something that was at least 3 to 1 against.

cj
07-18-2017, 03:18 PM
That's a less than even money payoff (4 to 5) on something that was at least 3 to 1 against.

I would think those odds are too high in Dave's case, much too high.

acorn54
07-18-2017, 03:55 PM
The late odds changes have been happening for decades. imo, way too much is made of it as a negative factor in anyone's game.

In order to have value , regularly, in a game with a confiscatory takeout, you need a steady and abundant supply of suckers.

Do we have that?

That said, if you do the hard work, and have loads of patience, there is still opportunity. If you want to bet every race or 20 races a day in simulcasts, you probably can't find that much edge.

alton is right on the money. very few arenas in gambling are as advantageous to the player as horseracing. in poker you have to ante up every hand to stay in the game. in horseracing you are free to participate only when you have a decided advantage. you are not required to bet every day or every race. the problem is the mindset of the average horseplayer. if they looked at their wagers as investments for their portfolio, they would grow their investments very nicely.
unfortunately most don't do that.

thaskalos
07-18-2017, 04:08 PM
alton is right on the money. very few arenas in gambling are as advantageous to the player as horseracing. in poker you have to ante up every hand to stay in the game. in horseracing you are free to participate only when you have a decided advantage. you are not required to bet every day or every race. the problem is the mindset of the average horseplayer. if they looked at their wagers as investments for their portfolio, they would grow their investments very nicely.
unfortunately most don't do that.

You are playing in the wrong poker games...IMO.

Bullet Plane
07-18-2017, 04:16 PM
What is he saying about horse racing is 100% right on!

I mean when I went to the Derby this year, I bet a 10-1 on the M/L.

Looked like a good play. Nobody picking this horse.

Before they load the gate, he's down to 6-1.

and he paid off at 3-1. the odds changed on the far turn!

Now these bet down horses seem to always win.

Why don't they take a 10-1 M/L beat it down to nothing,

and lose their money.

Doesn't seem to happen.

And that is rare case of finding any value.

Mostly there is no value at all.

then, when there appears to be. Poof it's gone on the far turn.

I don't if it's computers, too many whales and not enough "fans," or what the deal is...

But, it really takes the joy out of the game.

I still love the sport of it. I love horse racing and will always watch it...

But, as far as, a betting game. Not so much.

dilanesp
07-18-2017, 04:19 PM
I would think those odds are too high in Dave's case, much too high.

He's probably played in 5 or 6 main events (hard to know for sure, I have to go off information as to when he was in Las Vegas, as non-cashes are not recorded in the databases) and this was his first cash. So he's $30,000 or $40,000 in the hole on main events.

And that's TOTALLY standard. The vast majority of good players who play in the main event do not cash, every year. It is VERY hard to cash in the main event, we are talking about surviving over several days of poker.

acorn54
07-18-2017, 06:06 PM
You are playing in the wrong poker games...IMO.

thaskalos i defer to your knowledge on poker rules. it has been a long time for me and i only played online holdem poker.

AndyC
07-18-2017, 06:42 PM
........ It is VERY hard to cash in the main event, we are talking about surviving over several days of poker.

I have known several players who have taken a flyer on the main event who have a hard time achieving success in a home game. Many similar type players enter the main event every year. Luck can only take a weak player so far. A good players chance of cashing are actually better in the main event because of all of the no-hopers.

showonly
07-18-2017, 07:44 PM
alton is right on the money. very few arenas in gambling are as advantageous to the player as horseracing. in poker you have to ante up every hand to stay in the game. in horseracing you are free to participate only when you have a decided advantage. you are not required to bet every day or every race. the problem is the mindset of the average horseplayer. if they looked at their wagers as investments for their portfolio, they would grow their investments very nicely.
unfortunately most don't do that.

It is correct that if poker had no ante or blind bets that your Dog could play a small set of premium hands written on a cocktail napkin. This as with most easy to execute successful strategies would have the value sucked out of it toot-sweet. Horse racing as far as advantages is closer to the bottom of the list than the top. Wagering with bookmakers who pay is far and away the best proposition. If you break it down to Sports Betting,Gaming Machines, "live" and internet poker and pari-mutels. IMO earning 80-100k a year at the parimutel's is by far and away the most difficult task. I didn't include casino table games due to the lack of potential arenas.

acorn54
07-18-2017, 08:18 PM
It is correct that if poker had no ante or blind bets that your Dog could play a small set of premium hands written on a cocktail napkin. This as with most easy to execute successful strategies would have the value sucked out of it toot-sweet. Horse racing as far as advantages is closer to the bottom of the list than the top. Wagering with bookmakers who pay is far and away the best proposition. If you break it down to Sports Betting,Gaming Machines, "live" and internet poker and pari-mutels. IMO earning 80-100k a year at the parimutel's is by far and away the most difficult task. I didn't include casino table games due to the lack of potential arenas.

i don't know about you showonly, but to earn 80-100 grand AT ANYTHING, is just a pipe dream for me. i don't have the constitution to handle that kind of money in ANY activity of chance.

showonly
07-18-2017, 08:58 PM
i don't know about you showonly, but to earn 80-100 grand AT ANYTHING, is just a pipe dream for me. i don't have the constitution to handle that kind of money in ANY activity of chance.


Risk tolerance is not something most Gamblers deal with in a reasonable way. Weaker gamblers justify too large a wager and winning gamblers excuse away there lack of temperament to absorb the undeniable truths of standard deviation. The explanations from both factions remain timeless. The use of the term activity of chance is one I think is a naive A true understanding of the "the great recession" and the massive world wide bailout(will not under any circumstance discuss if it was justified) that followed come with an understanding that millions of people were involved in a true "activity of chance" and didn't even now they had been dealt in. Risk is everywhere. Be truthful as to your own risk tolerance and deal with it as you choose.

dilanesp
07-19-2017, 01:04 PM
I have known several players who have taken a flyer on the main event who have a hard time achieving success in a home game. Many similar type players enter the main event every year. Luck can only take a weak player so far. A good players chance of cashing are actually better in the main event because of all of the no-hopers.

Something like 1 in 9 players cash. So a good player gets that up to 1 in 3. That's the odds I was giving Gutfreund.

Bear in mind that you can find almost nobody in the poker world with a long streak of main event cashes, despite the fact that 6,000 or more people play it every year.

dilanesp
07-19-2017, 01:05 PM
i don't know about you showonly, but to earn 80-100 grand AT ANYTHING, is just a pipe dream for me. i don't have the constitution to handle that kind of money in ANY activity of chance.

To earn $80,000 to $100,000 gambling, consistently (i.e., not through luck) requires even more work and dedication and discipline than earning the same amount working. Which is a great irony because a lot of people get into gambling to avoid work.

showonly
07-19-2017, 01:43 PM
To earn $80,000 to $100,000 gambling, consistently (i.e., not through luck) requires even more work and dedication and discipline than earning the same amount working. Which is a great irony because a lot of people get into gambling to avoid work.

Your the individual calling it work. As far as the money goes its satisfied the needs and wants of my family and myself. Not to mention I NEVER had to tell my wife or my children that I couldn't be with them or at an event with them because of a work obligation. That freedom was part of my compensation package.

AndyC
07-19-2017, 01:47 PM
.....Bear in mind that you can find almost nobody in the poker world with a long streak of main event cashes, despite the fact that 6,000 or more people play it every year.

Why do you think this happens?

dilanesp
07-19-2017, 02:01 PM
Why do you think this happens?

Big field tournament variance is so high and there are so few tournaments with this size fields and buy-in that it's impossible to know whether anyone is really making a +EV play by playing in the main event.

And you can't make a profit on cashes alone, because even the best players bust out a lot. You have to get very deep, which takes a boatload of luck.

thaskalos
07-19-2017, 02:09 PM
To earn $80,000 to $100,000 gambling, consistently (i.e., not through luck) requires even more work and dedication and discipline than earning the same amount working. Which is a great irony because a lot of people get into gambling to avoid work.

Do they get into gambling to avoid "work"...or, to avoid a BOSS? "Work" is tolerable without a boss around...IMO.

showonly
07-19-2017, 02:25 PM
Big field tournament variance is so high and there are so few tournaments with this size fields and buy-in that it's impossible to know whether anyone is really making a +EV play by playing in the main event.

And you can't make a profit on cashes alone, because even the best players bust out a lot. You have to get very deep, which takes a boatload of luck.



Everything you said is very true. I would add the increased fees to enter the tournaments. The WSOP has been particularly grievous in its increases. They have also expanded THE depth of payouts. This makes the take more effective. The WSOP lists cashes by players going back to the 80's. It would be very interesting to see ROI's. If the Main Event has 5k entries what % chance of winning(for the sake of argument just winning) does the best player have. 1,2,3....% ???

acorn54
07-19-2017, 02:44 PM
Do they get into gambling to avoid "work"...or, to avoid a BOSS? "Work" is tolerable without a boss around...IMO.

amen to that

tholl
01-17-2019, 02:10 PM
David Gutfreund did not stay away for horse tournaments for long. Just won the NTRA Tour.

Robert Fischer
01-17-2019, 02:25 PM
this game is like a 'sparring partner'...



ain't no 'loyalty' to horseplaying...

ReplayRandall
01-17-2019, 02:28 PM
David Gutfreund did not stay away for horse tournaments for long. Just won the NTRA Tour.

Horse tournaments are a different breed of animal, altogether....

To win the NTRA Tour is a money-pit trap while attempting the year long pursuit to chase down the crown....No telling how much total expense Gutfreund came out of pocket to lockup 1st place of $100K.

https://www.ntra.com/tourney-veteran-david-gutfreund-wins-2018-nhc-tour-championship/

stringmail
01-17-2019, 05:42 PM
Horse tournaments are a different breed of animal, altogether....

To win the NTRA Tour is a money-pit trap while attempting the year long pursuit to chase down the crown....No telling how much total expense Gutfreund came out of pocket to lockup 1st place of $100K.

https://www.ntra.com/tourney-veteran-david-gutfreund-wins-2018-nhc-tour-championship/

It certainly can be a money pit unless you are centrally located to a lot of venues and/or can minimize travel costs but in listening to Dave walk through he year, I think it is fair to say he didn't spend too much. Although he went coast to coast for a few on track tourneys (Los Al, Med), they may have coincided with some other planned ventures. Having won 5 of 11, he was playing with house money.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2019/01/14/show-7-tuesday-january-15-the-artist-formerly-known-as-maven/

Suff
01-17-2019, 11:47 PM
I enjoy the manner that Noel Michaels writes in.

JeremyJet
01-18-2019, 01:25 PM
I'm glad to see I'm not the only one with this opinion. The crazy late odds swings are total insanity. This issue absolutely needs to be addressed asap. You cant allow a handful of folks special privileges over the rest of the players. Common sense. Same rules for all.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, it's not asking to much to know the odds you're betting on.

I hope more high profile players do the same thing Dave has done and walk away. This bullshitt needs to stop.

JeremyJet
01-18-2019, 01:50 PM
The late odds changes have been happening for decades. imo, way too much is made of it as a negative factor in anyone's game.

In order to have value , regularly, in a game with a confiscatory takeout, you need a steady and abundant supply of suckers.

Do we have that?

That said, if you do the hard work, and have loads of patience, there is still opportunity. If you want to bet every race or 20 races a day in simulcasts, you probably can't find that much edge.

I disagree. Even experienced players can struggle with what constitutes "fair"odds. I wouldn't call these kind of players "suckers." It's just a difference of opinion on what the odds should be.