HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 6/18

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 8 races on the Turf and 2 on Dirt.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will follow and will ALL be based on a static tote analysis. They can be used in any number of ways for betting purposes. The final order of preferences will be based on the live tote analysis.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.

Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #7 - #8 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns
when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) T….….5-3 W/ 4-6 ……........1:00 AM EST


R#2 - 1800M (9F) T…......1-5 W/ 2-10-11-13 ....1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1200M (6F) T.........1-2 W/ 10-4-9-14.......2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) D…2-3 W/ 8-4-10-6……...2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) T ……2-3 W/ 4-6-11-8….........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1800M (9F) T….....2-5 W/ 3-9-7………....3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1650M (8.25F) D....3-4 W/ 10-13-9-7......4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1200M (6F) T……2-8 W/ 11-7-10-6 …....…4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1600M (8F) T.…...8-1 W/ 4-5-9-7 ….......…5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1200M (6F) T.......9-12 W/ 2-7-6-10 …...5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins..

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

R#1 - 5-3 W/ 4-6 -

Live Tote Results: 5-6-7-3 – Dutch 27% Profit Margin – PASS

Top choice $2.10 Early & Live & $9.40 QUIN

[Nitro]

Results: R#1 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.5 11.0 25.0 BET PRF
$3 $24 $52
$52 $7 $3 $62 $17 27%
$78 $78 $78

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-5 W/ 2-10-11-13 - All of that one! (w/#8 Tote Watch – Fin. 2nd)

Live Tote Results: 2-8-1-12 – Dutch 120% Profit Margin - HIT

3rd choice $7.30 Early & Top choice Live & $153.70 QUIN / $2,511.00 TRI BX
(#8 Tote Watch got solid action in the Quinella betting as 6th choice!)

[menifee]

Quick question - I'm using PTC and have hit the first two tris, but not getting any $ for it. They are not showing trifecta results - are you seeing them on your ADW?

[Nitro]

Results: R#2 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 8.5 13.0 BET PRF
$7 $19 $28
$28 $11 $7 $46 $55 120%
$101 $101 $101

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1-2 W/ 10-4-9-14 -

Live Tote Results: 1-5-10-4 – Dutch 79% Profit Margin - HIT

Top choice $7.10 Early & Live – Some late action on the LS Placer

[Nitro]

Results: R#3 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 5.1 8.1 BET PRF
$7 $12 $18
$18 $10 $7 $36 $28 79%
$64 $64 $64

[Nitro]

Quick question - I'm using PTC and have hit the first two tris, but not getting any $ for it. They are not showing trifecta results - are you seeing them on your ADW?
No issues with TVG.
http://basic.tvg.com/Open/RaceInformation/CurrentOddsResults.aspx

[Nitro]

R#4- 2-3 W/ 8-4-10-6 - All of that one! (w/#7 & #13 Tote Watch – Fin. 2nd & 3rd )

Live Tote Results: 8-7-13-2 – Dutch 119% Profit Margin - HIT

3rd choice $5.40 Early & Top choice Live – & $67.70 QUIN / $470.00 TRI BX
(#7 & #13 Tote Watch both saw good action in the Win & Quinella betting as 5th and 6th choices!)

[Nitro]

Results: R#4 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 21.0 24.0 BET PRF
$5 $44 $50
$50 $6 $5 $62 $73 119%
$135 $135 $135

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-3 W/ 4-6-11-8 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 2-6-11-10 – Dutch 37% Profit Margin - PASS

Top choice $7.50 Early & Live & $31.80 QUIN / $372.40 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#5 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $22
$22 $16 $5 $43 $16 37%
$59 $59 $59

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-5 W/ 3-9-7 – All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 5-2-9-1 – Dutch 95% Profit Margin - HIT

2nd choice $7.30 Early & Live & $40.40 QUIN / $150.80 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#6 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 6.4 9.0 BET PRF
$7 $15 $20
$20 $10 $7 $37 $35 95%
$72 $72 $72

[Nitro]

R#7 - 3-4 W/ 10-13-9-7 - All of that one! (w/#8 Tote Watch – Fin. 1st)

Live Tote Results: 8-13-4-1 – Dutch 66% Profit Margin - HIT

OUT Early & 3rd choice $12.30 Live & $39.50 QUIN / $498.40 TRI BX
(#8 Tote Watch got solid action in Quinella pool as 3rd choice!)

[Nitro]

Results: R#7 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 4.7 5.1 BET PRF
$8 $11 $12
$12 $8 $8 $28 $18 66%
$46 $46 $46

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-8 W/ 11-7-10-6 -

Live Tote Results: 8-11-5-6 - Dutch 20% Profit Margin - PASS

2nd choice $3.30 Early & Top choice Live – & $12.70 QUIN

[Nitro]

Results: R#8 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 7.3 10.0 BET PRF
$3 $17 $22
$22 $4 $3 $29 $6 20%
$35 $35 $35

[Nitro]

R#9 - 8-1 W/ 4-5-9-7 -

Live Tote Results: 1-10-4-9 - Dutch 26% Profit Margin – PASS

2nd choice $4.90 Early & Live

[Nitro]

Results: R#9 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.4 2.6 9.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $20
$20 $13 $5 $38 $10 26%
$48 $48 $48

[Nitro]

R#10 - 9-12 W/ 2-7-6-10 [/ – Nothing there

Live Tote Results: 3-2-9-10 - Dutch 11% Profit Margin - PASS

OUT Early & Live

[Nitro]

Results: R#10 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 5.8 6.8 BET PRF
$3 $14 $16
$16 $4 $3 $22 $2 11%
$25 $25 $25

[Nitro]

O.A. Win Dutching Summary – 10 Races

(6) HITS – (0) OUT – (4) PASSED

Another BIG night (morning) @ Hong Kong!