classhandicapper
06-14-2017, 12:14 PM
Has anyone seen this phenomenon?
1. A method I developed ranks horses in order of preference. I tested the method and the top choice outperformed the track take significantly.
2. Within those top choices, I found a couple of sub groups that did poorly and significantly under performed the take take.
a. The most obvious next move would be to eliminate the bad sub groups and focus on the remaining top choices because the results are better.
b. The next move might be to take a look at the races where there was a bad top choice and focus on the second choice assuming that if the top choice under performs the take badly, the second choice should do much better.
That's what I just tested. To my surprise, the 2nd choices did not do well in scenario b. They also slightly under performed the track take. The sample is not very large (just about 100 races), but it was surprising to me.
I'm throwing out horses that are clearly overbet, but I'm not gaining any value with the next ranked horse. Perhaps the sample is just too small, but I'm wondering if there's some oddball thing going on where the method is powerful at finding most likely winners but not so good at separating the rest of the contenders.
1. A method I developed ranks horses in order of preference. I tested the method and the top choice outperformed the track take significantly.
2. Within those top choices, I found a couple of sub groups that did poorly and significantly under performed the take take.
a. The most obvious next move would be to eliminate the bad sub groups and focus on the remaining top choices because the results are better.
b. The next move might be to take a look at the races where there was a bad top choice and focus on the second choice assuming that if the top choice under performs the take badly, the second choice should do much better.
That's what I just tested. To my surprise, the 2nd choices did not do well in scenario b. They also slightly under performed the track take. The sample is not very large (just about 100 races), but it was surprising to me.
I'm throwing out horses that are clearly overbet, but I'm not gaining any value with the next ranked horse. Perhaps the sample is just too small, but I'm wondering if there's some oddball thing going on where the method is powerful at finding most likely winners but not so good at separating the rest of the contenders.