HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 6/11

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields in all 10 races.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will follow and will ALL be based on a static tote analysis.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.

Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #4 - #8 - #9
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) T…….3-8 W/ 12-5-6-10 …....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1200M (6F) D…......9-1 W/ 2-5-7-12 ……..1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1200M (6F) D.........2-7 W/ 4-9-3-1.........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 2200M (10F) T……4-1 W/ 2-3-8-6…….....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #7– Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1600M (8F) T ……2-3 W/ 11-5-7-8….......3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1200M (6F) T….....5-1 W/ 4-3-10-11……..3:35 AM EST


R#7 - 1400M (7F) T.......4-5 W/ 2-6-3-11........4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1200M (6F) D……2-7 W/ 6-5-10-11 ….…4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1400M (7F) T.…...1-2 W/ 5-3-9-12 …....…5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1200M (6F) T.......7-13 W/ 14-9-6-4 ……...5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins..

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

R#1 - 3-8 W/ 12-5-6-10 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 12-3-10-4 –Live Dutch 9% Profit Margin – PASS

3rd choice $15.90 Early & Live & $11.40 QUIN / $355.00 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#1 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 5.0 6.9 BET PRF
$3 $12 $16
$16 $4 $3 $23 $2 9%
$25 $25 $25

[Nitro]

R#2 - 9-1 W/ 2-5-7-12 - Nothing there

Live Tote Results: 6-9-4-1 – Dutch 50% Profit Margin - PASS

OUT Early & Live – No action on the Big LS Winner!

[Nitro]

Results: R#2 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 4.8 8.0 BET PRF
$5 $12 $18
$18 $8 $5 $31 $16 50%
$47 $47 $47

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-7 W/ 4-9-3-1 -

Live Tote Results: 3-10-2-7 – Dutch 60% Profit Margin - HIT

5th choice $9.50 Early & 2nd choice Live – No action on the HUGE Placer (@ 198/1 :eek:)

[Nitro]

Results: R#3 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 3.7 5.2 BET PRF
$8 $9 $12
$12 $11 $8 $31 $19 60%
$50 $50 $50

[Nitro]

R#4 - 4-1 W/ 2-3-8-6 -

Live Tote Results: 3-9-2-4 – Dutch 110% Profit Margin - HIT

4th choice $7.80 Early & Top choice Live got solid action as fav. – Some late action on the LS Placer

[Nitro]

Results: R#4 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.4 15.0 BET PRF
$8 $13 $32
$32 $20 $8 $59 $66 110%
$125 $125 $125

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-3 W/ 11-5-7-8 - Nothing there

Live Tote Results: 12-3-8-5 – Dutch 25% Profit Margin - PASS

Out Early & Live – No action on the LS Winner

[Nitro]

Results: R#5 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.4 2.1 15.0 BET PRF
$5 $6 $32
$32 $25 $5 $62 $15 25%
$77 $77 $77

[Nitro]

R#6 - 5-1 W/ 4-3-10-11 – All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 4-10-5-11 – Dutch 58% Profit Margin - HIT

3rd choice $44.70 Early & Live & $80.80 QUIN / $818.80 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#6 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 8.1 21.0 BET PRF
$4 $18 $44
$44 $10 $4 $58 $34 58%
$92 $92 $92

[Nitro]

R#7 - 4-5 W/ 2-6-3-11 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 5-2-11-4 – Dutch 6% Profit Margin - PASS

2nd choice $3.40 Early & Live & $6.20 QUIN / $73.60 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#7 – Live Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.7 2.3 17.0 BET PRF
$3 $7 $36
$36 $19 $3 $58 $3 6%
$61 $61 $61

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-7 W/ 6-5-10-11 - All of that one! (#1 Tote Watch – Fin. 1st)

Live Tote Results: 1-7-5-9 - Dutch 119% Profit Margin - HIT

OUT Early & 3rd choice $18.10 Live – & $175.90 QUIN / $2,797.20 TRI BX –
(#1 Tote Watch took solid action in the Quinella betting as 3rd choice!)

[Nitro]

Results: R#8 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.9 6.1 8.0 BET PRF
$10 $14 $18
$18 $12 $10 $40 $48 119%
$88 $88 $88

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-2 W/ 5-3-9-12 -

Live Tote Results: 3-14-1-4 - Dutch 59% Profit Margin – HIT

4th choice Early & 3rd choice $19.00 Live (#2 Early 2nd choice got no action @ 40/1)

[Nitro]

Results: R#9 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 5.5 8.5 BET PRF
$5 $13 $19
$19 $8 $5 $32 $19 59%
$51 $51 $51

[Nitro]

R#10 - 7-13 W/ 14-9-6-4 [/ - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 6-9-13-3 - Dutch 54% Profit Margin - HIT

5th choice $13.20 Early & 3rd choice Live & $50.60 QUIN / $611.20 TRI BX
Winner took all the late action – 12/1 to 6.6/1 !

[Nitro]

Results: R#10 – Live Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 4.4 5.6 BET PRF
$6 $11 $13
$13 $8 $6 $27 $15 54%
$42 $42 $42

[Nitro]

O.A. Win Dutching Summary – 10 Races

6 HITS – 0 OUT – 4 PASSED