View Full Version : my take on the belmont.

boys at tosconova
06-09-2017, 10:38 PM
IWC and tapwrit. both were on my top 4/5 along w/ AD and midway. i really thought AD or IWC was going to win the derby.

now both of these horses face much lighter competition. iWC's race in the derby was pretty poor, and many will just toss the race but these two horses are just faster than anything in the race.

but what if iwc doesn't fire and come up short again? even though you can toss the derby, that still doesn't make me want to ignore how poor it was. as for tapwrit. he's a must use.

after these two you get a lot of mush. i'm sure SI will take a lot of money and be the closer horse many will opt to play, and i can't argue with that. as for the jap horse,....ehhhh, doesn't do much for me and he'll be overbet as well. all of you have seen spanky way to much anyway.

although i don't like gormley, he should be in decent stalking position..and if iwc and eppy fail you have to think this one could menace even w/ declining figures do to the rest of the field.

LoL will do his close,...would have liked of seen a better effort in the preakness, and SI has leaped this horse, at least for this race imo...and SI is no guarantee of anything.

twisted tom looks a little cheap and has issues like half the field does but if he can up his game he should be up close. j boyz ran a great gotham and withers in NY. he'll definitely be flying under the radar.......can't really recommend HH.

meantime is going to be close early, but he just doesn't look classy enough. it's hard to think he'll finish 2nd in here. the fav's will have to collapse and he'll try and hold on. it still looks daunting even if others fail. multiplier will just sit n close, and hope n sit,,,,and sit n close...much like like silly sally sitz and shells her peas

i don't know what to do w/ patch. he will be overbet once again, and while pp12 is better than 20 it's not very good and racing wide will not help him.

tapwrit to win w/ iwc/si and one/two of the longshots..including j boyz

06-10-2017, 02:08 PM
I see things similarly. Boy are you in trouble!

:7: IWC is the most logical choice, and kind of the double contrary play in a race where everyone is throwing down for a shot. I also liked him in the Derby as the 4th ML choice but not the second on the tote, maybe he's a better chalk play here. He just drifted up to 4/1; might be hard to pass up at that price.

:2: Tapwrit seems to have won the best race in the field, going by TimeForm race ratings. I was on him in the Derby. Deserving second choice and 5/1 is probably fair if not compelling.

Winner of the second best race among these, :3: Gormley seems to be the prime threat to :7: on the earlier end of the pace. Seems to be lacking early wagering interest. But at 9/1 I like him better than, say, :1: Twisted Tom at 7/1 (!).

:12: Patch caught my eye, too, with legit distance pedigree and upside and a prime jock for the task, but you just hate to spend money on a story horse. Not sure 11/1 tells me the funny money got spent on his Derby run and he's playable here.

:4: J Boys is more or less the fourth most logical horse for me. Similar running style to both Taprwrit and Patch. Not sure how many BRIS "P" runners I want here in a vertical bet. I guess 10/1 isn't crazy but a way's off the 15/1 ML.

Problem with :6: LAL is that he doesn't win, even though he belongs here. Not sure I even want him defensively underneath vertical wagers. Certainly don't want him 5/1 as co-second-favorite to win.

Seems like :10: Multiplier is getting some wise guy attention. Maybe an alternative to LAL with some value and upside if you want a closer in the mix. Not sure I do.

I reckon :8: Senior Investment is another underlay, unless you have faith in the early money like what's going to :1: TT, but I don't see them as absolute tosses either. A few PA guys are on :9: but I just don't see him outlasting the other early runners on the lead. CJ made some interesting comments on :5: HH but I just can't see a case for him—he's probably only 18/1 because people are going to bet the longest shot on the board.

I'm leaning toward a chalk play out of the :7:,:2:,:3: and maybe work in the :10:,:12:.

06-10-2017, 11:04 PM
Nice call Boys At Tosconova....we don't exactly get along too well but I will always acknowledge a nice analysis and play.
Hope you had the tri, it was a pretty nice payoff

06-11-2017, 05:12 PM
good job!