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View Full Version : Belmont Stakes - Lookin At Lee is the ONLY play here


PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 12:47 PM
I've been on this horse the entire Triple Crown...:pound:

Today is his day. That's it. No doubt about it. This race defaults to him. A rare Belmont where a stone-dead closer will come from out of it to win...you heard it here first...

My value line:

:6: Lookin At Lee 2/1
:7: Irish War Cry 3/1

And that's it...no other contenders...yawn along with me now...:sleeping:

Robert Fischer
06-09-2017, 01:05 PM
Irad Ortiz is a great fit.

Hard for Lanerie to come off, after that amazing ride in the Derby, but Irad is probably the best jock in NY for this specific horse, and he knows the trip by the back of his hand.

Robert Fischer
06-09-2017, 01:14 PM
Other than the jockey angle, I can't use Lookin At Lee in the win, place, or show position.

classhandicapper
06-09-2017, 01:20 PM
One thing I've been thinking is that so many "wiseguys" now think that playing deeper closers in the Belmont is a bad value bet because less experienced players all think that closers will automatically love the 1 1/2 miles, they are probably no longer over bet. It may be true that some of the deeper closers flatten out going long, but it's also true that many speeds drop dead.

IMO, there's nothing wrong horses like Senior Investment, Multiplier, and Lookin At Lee if you think they can get 12F and the pace will be suitable (which it should be).

Redboard
06-09-2017, 01:32 PM
C'mon Mike, eating the chalk? We're talking about a race that, over its last 10 runnings, has only been won by the favorite once?(American Pharoah) And by the second favorite twice( Union Rags and Rags to Riches)> The rest have been double-digit odds.

We go through this every year. When I made the above statement last year, there was someone here who insisted that one can't use historical data in a horse race. Even though we have virtually the same trainers, same jockeys, same thoroughbred pedigree, same track, same owners, etc. and all of the best 3-year-olds have already burnt themselves out trying to win the K. Derby.

This individual insisted that Exagerrator was a stone cold lock. How did that work out?

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 01:57 PM
This race is awful. And LAL isn't going to be the chalk.

2-1 would be a gift on LAL and he's going to go off higher than that.

This horse is going to win FOR FUN.

Vinnie
06-09-2017, 02:23 PM
I've been on this horse the entire Triple Crown...:pound:

Today is his day. That's it. No doubt about it. This race defaults to him. A rare Belmont where a stone-dead closer will come from out of it to win...you heard it here first...

My value line:

:6: Lookin At Lee 2/1
:7: Irish War Cry 3/1

And that's it...no other contenders...yawn along with me now...:sleeping:

PA:

I can appreciate your line of reasoning on Lookin At Lee, and maybe Irish War Cry although it is difficult to determine which IWC will actually show up and whether or not he is going to like the added distance of the Belmont. :) That goes for almost all of the horses in here as well.

Senior Investment beat Lookin At Lee last time out in the Preakness and he seems to be blossoming more and more with each and every outing and Multiplier also endured some adversity in the form of traffic issues in his last outing. I am hoping that one of these two bring it home at a price... Good luck to you this weekend!! :)

JustRalph
06-09-2017, 03:14 PM
Anybody like that horse coming out of the Peter Pan?

Mean? Something. He has a huge pace advantage :headbanger:

He might run off

Blenheim
06-09-2017, 07:41 PM
This race is awful. And LAL isn't going to be the chalk.

2-1 would be a gift on LAL and he's going to go off higher than that.

This horse is going to win FOR FUN.


Brisnet:
Sire Stats: AWD 7.4
Dam's Sire: AWD 7.2

Gotta give ya' credit for takin' a stand. Good luck.

:11:

jocko699
06-09-2017, 08:04 PM
I've been on this horse the entire Triple Crown...:pound:

Today is his day. That's it. No doubt about it. This race defaults to him. A rare Belmont where a stone-dead closer will come from out of it to win...you heard it here first...

My value line:

:6: Lookin At Lee 2/1
:7: Irish War Cry 3/1

And that's it...no other contenders...yawn along with me now...:sleeping:

Mike,

Best of luck. I have settled on Irish War Cry but am alive in the double also to Twisted Tom and Patch.

Safe race for all.

bobphilo
06-09-2017, 08:09 PM
I've been on this horse the entire Triple Crown...:pound:

Today is his day. That's it. No doubt about it. This race defaults to him. A rare Belmont where a stone-dead closer will come from out of it to win...you heard it here first...

My value line:

:6: Lookin At Lee 2/1
:7: Irish War Cry 3/1

And that's it...no other contenders...yawn along with me now...:sleeping:
Lee and War Cry are the top 2 and the winner will depend on the pace. IWC's failure in the Derby can be explained by the fact that he had a bad trip, in the words of Beyer " a wide move into a hot pace". He has rebounded in the past in the Wood after a "poor" Fl. Derby and should do so again provided the Belmont pace is not crazy fast.
Lee, as a stone closer, benefited from the hot Derby pace and will need a hot pace again to repeat that performance. He may get this as the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a fast pace. He will also appreciate the distance.

As with many tactical distance races, the result will depend on pace and how the jocks adapt to it.

whodoyoulike
06-09-2017, 08:25 PM
Without anything to go on except finishes and previous distances, I'll go with the :11: epicharis (4/1).

I don't think this race has ever been won by a foreign runner and his recorded work on 6/6 @ Bel is nothing to get excited about. But, someone spent a lot of money on him with big expectations (TC nominated).

n.c
06-09-2017, 08:48 PM
then you have to play Sr. Investment... fresher horse, who beat LEE last time out and much better price.

Lemon Drop Husker
06-09-2017, 08:50 PM
This race is awful. And LAL isn't going to be the chalk.

2-1 would be a gift on LAL and he's going to go off higher than that.

This horse is going to win FOR FUN.

I wouldn't say the race is awful. From a wagering perspective, I see it as having solid wagering opportunities. Obviously you should see it as much if you feel LAL is a legit 2/1 chalk in this field.

As far as an historical perspective, yes, I can see this as being an awful rendition of the Belmont Stakes. Without thinking too much, I simply can't remember a worse field than this one in the last 20 to 30 years. However, we do have 12 horses likely to go to the gate. I'm perfectly fine with that. :):ThmbUp:

bobphilo
06-09-2017, 09:20 PM
Without anything to go on except finishes and previous distances, I'll go with the :11: epicharis (4/1).

I don't think this race has ever been won by a foreign runner and his recorded work on 6/6 @ Bel is nothing to get excited about. But, someone spent a lot of money on him with big expectations (TC nominated).

I'd be careful with backing Epicharis. While Japanese horses tend to be good distance horses, as shown by Lani's good finish in last years Belmont, I just don't see this horse being competitive here. Even if one is not a big fan of speed figures, one must consider that his best figure of 108 on the Timeform ratings is slower than the best of the entire rest of the field. Lookin at Lee ran a 118 in the Derby and Irish War Cry a 119 in the Wood. He would have to show considerable improvement to compete here.

What's also a negative is that he is lame in the right fore and has missed several days of training. Even if the hoof heals missing training before such a long race is problematic.

Of course if he does manage to win, you may hunt me down and shoot me. :)

classhandicapper
06-09-2017, 09:23 PM
then you have to play Sr. Investment... fresher horse, who beat LEE last time out and much better price.

He and Multiplier will probably be on my tickets (pending prices and how the track is playing). They are going to be dependent on the pace (as will Lookin at Lee).

If a couple of the horses I expect to go don't go and they let a horse like Irish War Cry control the pace, they'll be on trouble and IWC may go all the way.

whodoyoulike
06-09-2017, 09:23 PM
Without anything to go on except finishes and previous distances, I'll go with the :11: epicharis (4/1).

I don't think this race has ever been won by a foreign runner and his recorded work on 6/6 @ Bel is nothing to get excited about. But, someone spent a lot of money on him with big expectations (TC nominated).

Just saw the thread wondering if Epicharis may be lame.

Figures!!

I'll now have to see how he looks in the paddock and post parade.

soonboomer
06-09-2017, 09:31 PM
Without anything to go on except finishes and previous distances, I'll go with the :11: epicharis (4/1).

I don't think this race has ever been won by a foreign runner and his recorded work on 6/6 @ Bel is nothing to get excited about. But, someone spent a lot of money on him with big expectations (TC nominated).

Go and Go 1990

VigorsTheGrey
06-10-2017, 12:25 AM
Just saw the thread wondering if Epicharis may be lame.

Figures!!

I'll now have to see how he looks in the paddock and post parade.
Why is not this vet note regarding lameness on Epicharis more of a main stream story...if there was anything solid to it wouldn't the media be all over this somewhat darling...? And will the Vet scratch him or update as healthy prior to race time...? The public deserves to know the truth of this...is he a toss because of this...?

n.c
06-10-2017, 12:34 AM
Twisted Tom 9-1- i guess Chad Brown factor( should be 20-1)
Senior Investment at 6-1( from 12-1 morning line)
Epicharis- 13-1( from morning line 4-1)

3 early big line shifts

VigorsTheGrey
06-10-2017, 12:34 AM
He and Multiplier will probably be on my tickets (pending prices and how the track is playing). They are going to be dependent on the pace (as will Lookin at Lee).

If a couple of the horses I expect to go don't go and they let a horse like Irish War Cry control the pace, they'll be on trouble and IWC may go all the way.

Epicharis and Irish War Cry seem like they will have a mini- match race behind Meantime, with Gormley and Twisted Tom next, then Tapwrit Multiplier, J Boys Echo, and the rest.....

Now what happens next...?

JustRalph
06-10-2017, 02:36 AM
I can't wait to see how Mike Smith handles ":9:Meantime"

This horse has such an advantage early.

I have to bet a little on this horse just because he might even improve.......... 12F is going to be interesting

oughtoh
06-10-2017, 02:58 AM
I am going to go with #9 Meantime. I guess i am going to be different then everyone else. Smith is going to put everyone asleep up front.

nijinski
06-10-2017, 03:34 AM
I can't wait to see how Mike Smith handles ":9:Meantime"

This horse has such an advantage early.

I have to bet a little on this horse just because he might even improve.......... 12F is going to be interesting
I like Smith on him but not seeing him stay for the finish . Just pacesetting .
Would love for Gormley do something with Irish War Cry and PA's
Lookin At Lee getting up late or perhaps the one eyed Patch .

NorCalGreg
06-10-2017, 07:17 AM
I am going to go with #9 Meantime. I guess i am going to be different then everyone else. Smith is going to put everyone asleep up front.

:9: MEANTIME 15-1 is clearly a standout.

LOOKIN AT LEE will be looking at MEANTIME'S hindquarters

PowerUpPaynter
06-10-2017, 09:26 AM
I got in a group tri box with 3 friends. Twisted Tom, Gormley, Irish War Cry, Lookin At Lee, Meantime, Senior Investment, and Patch...

I put some money myself on Gormley.

Played Recruting Ready hard in race 7. Love this horse, love him a lot more at 6 furlongs but even if he looses i still cashed on him because I absolutely pounded him Preakness day and he scored for me. Really think he is going to be a great sprinter.

Mulerider
06-10-2017, 10:04 AM
I put some money myself on Gormley.



Hate to jinx you, PuP, but Gormley is my top-ranked horse.

:3: Gormley
:9: Meantime
:10: Multiplier
:6: Lookin at Lee

I was feeling a little queasy about Meantime until I saw Greg's post, and then all my misgivings disappeared!

Mule

classhandicapper
06-10-2017, 10:14 AM
One thing is clear about Gormley. He definitely ran better in the Derby than it looks on paper. I don't buy that the rail was golden that day. To me, horses that are losing a ton of ground or especially chasing or moving into a fast while wide are supposed to be at a huge advantage to horses setting the pace inside or rallying late up the rail.

I have Gormley 5 wide 1st turn and 4 wide 2nd turn rallying into the race before tiring. I'm not sure he wants to run 1 1/2 miles, but if he does he should give a much better account of himself.

HalvOnHorseracing
06-10-2017, 10:38 AM
Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes

:7: *Irish War Cry
:3: *Gormley
:4: *J Boys Echo
:6: *Lookin at Lee
:10: *Multiplier
:2: *Tapwrit

If you have any money left by this race, it could be a good betting event. First, no horse really sticks out in this field. Second, no horse is particularly well bred for the mile and a half. I'll admit I was a fan of Irish War Cry in the Derby, and he didn't get a winning trip in that race, but given the field, he should compete better. Irish War Cry is by Curlin, who should give him some bottom, although his dam side seems to say sprint. I like his running style for this event - generally horses that can stay near the pace have an advantage. He's got two superior races in the Wood and the Holy Bull, both graded events. I wouldn't bet the house on him, especially at the likely odds, but I am looking for vindication. *Gormley is listed at 8-1, and if the field was a little better he might easily be double digits. I have a feeling he won't be that low at post time, although he seems to be a bit of a wiseguy horse. He's a Grade 1 winner, and he really was one of the horses who got the worst of it in the Derby. His distance breeding isn't particularly strong but he does have the right running style for the race. Intriguing. J Boys Echo is 15-1 on the ML and could be the best value in the race. His distance breeding is not bad - A.P. Indy is his grandsire - and you can pretty much toss his Derby effort. His Gotham win gives him the field best figure, and he should be cruising just behind the leading pack with an opportunity to be in a good position for the stretch run. I'll seriously consider win money if he stays at those odds. Make no mistake - Lookin at Lee has some talent, but his running style is just not well suited to the Belmont. He got a very fortunate trip in the Derby and ran ok in the Preakness, but given the overall quality of the field, it's hard to discount him too much. *Multiplier is another interesting horse at long odds. He won the Illinois Derby, but didn't show particularly well in the Preakness. I'm a bit ambiguous about the equipment change - blinkers go on - but I can see him in a backhole. Tapwrit gets thrown into the mix as a potential backholer, but I'd be surprised if he could get to the line first. If he stays at his 6-1 ML odds I might not even use him in the backholes.

burnsy
06-10-2017, 11:36 AM
I like this horse too. My friend loved him in the Derby and it cost me because I didn't listen. They are selling this race as "wide open" but the way events shook out, he is the clear class. The scratching of Classic Empire hurt the price and probably slowed the pace. Now I am wary. Using, but will have some others in play too.

Stumbled or missed the break a little last out, needs clean break.

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 02:00 PM
Anybody like that horse coming out of the Peter Pan?

Mean? Something. He has a huge pace advantage :headbanger:

He might run off

He's either going to stop or be in a great position heading home.

He's one of the 3 longest shots on the board. Don't have to overthink that. Just add him on your tickets if you can do so.

Aerocraft67
06-10-2017, 02:16 PM
Today is his day. That's it.
My value line:

:6: Lookin At Lee 2/1
:7: Irish War Cry 3/1


I kind of feel that way about your second choice :7:. He's drifted up to 4/1 at the moment, he's the legitimate favorite and most logical pick out of a rough field in which everyone's looking conspicuously hard for a diamond. At 4/1 I might find out if today is a good day in his erratic record.

The problem with :6: LAL is that he doesn't win, even though he clearly belongs here. Seems expensive at 5/1 second choice to find out whether today's his day. Best of luck to you nevertheless!

JustRalph
06-10-2017, 03:04 PM
Is :9:meantime a sucker horse?

I would think the PP performance would say no.......but?

Vinnie
06-10-2017, 03:23 PM
Hey JR:

Very interesting horse in :9: Meantime. With Mike Smith on the front it could add a very interesting dynamic to the race. But, I am hoping that he only keeps a horse like Gormley and Irish War Cry more honest for one of the Deeper closers to get up at a price. Good luck to you if you are including him at the top end of any of your wagers. :)

Aerocraft67
06-10-2017, 04:21 PM
Is :9:meantime a sucker horse?


If you like his upside, Smith, and a front-running scenario than you could hardly be a sucker if your 14/1 shot doesn't stay for the win. For me he just seems among the least likely to get the distance, not to mention win wire to wire (although I'm no pedigree handicapper).

JustRalph
06-10-2017, 06:35 PM
Came home early to watch on tv. I bet the :9: with

:6::8::10:

Sam Houston was about 10% of capacity. The $21 Buffett came with a nice seat by myself at a 6 top with a TV of my own and a waiter.

Soft drinks were included and the food was a summer style buffet that appeared very nice but maybe heavy on fruits and sweets. To order sandwiches were made buy a chef while you watched. Hot Pastrami was great. Salad and several Cajun style soups Looked great although I only tried the clam chowder which was great.

Such a nice place to only be 10% capacity

jocko699
06-10-2017, 06:38 PM
Came home early to watch on tv. I bet the :9: with

:6::8::10:

Sam Houston was about 10% of capacity. The $21 Buffett came with a nice seat by myself at a 6 top with a TV of my own and a waiter.

Soft drinks were included and the food was a summer style buffet that appeared very nice but maybe heavy on fruits and sweets. To order sandwiches were made buy a chef while you watched. Hot Pastrami was great. Salad and several Cajun style soups Looked great although I only tried the clam chowder which was great.

Such a nice place to only be 10% capacity

Good info JRR. My bride and I need to take a trip down there.

Tom
06-10-2017, 07:47 PM
:9: MEANTIME 15-1 is clearly a standout.

LOOKIN AT LEE will be looking at MEANTIME'S hindquarters

He was looking a lot of Horses' Arses today! :lol:

Looking at BUTTS!

JustRalph
06-10-2017, 08:03 PM
He was looking a lot of Horses' Arses today! :lol:

Looking at BUTTS!

He was anti Sinatra, that should dq him in NY :lol:

cj
06-10-2017, 08:05 PM
Came home early to watch on tv. I bet the :9: with

:6::8::10:

Sam Houston was about 10% of capacity. The $21 Buffett came with a nice seat by myself at a 6 top with a TV of my own and a waiter.

Soft drinks were included and the food was a summer style buffet that appeared very nice but maybe heavy on fruits and sweets. To order sandwiches were made buy a chef while you watched. Hot Pastrami was great. Salad and several Cajun style soups Looked great although I only tried the clam chowder which was great.

Such a nice place to only be 10% capacity

It's a date for next year if you're still in Clutch City. :)

JustRalph
06-10-2017, 08:47 PM
It's a date for next year if you're still in Clutch City. :)

Sounds good👍

My waiter told me when Amer. pharaoh was running it was a packed house with a waiting list.......let's keep this in mind

RobertCalifornia
06-10-2017, 10:59 PM
Luckily I took this advice and only bet a pound of fairy dust to win a leprechaun.

Redboard
06-11-2017, 09:07 AM
He was looking a lot of Horses' Arses today! :lol:

Looking at BUTTS!

Very mean comment Tom.

Looking at Lee went off at a good price and got up for a game 7th place. And the horses he passed weren't tired, they were trying very hard. He should be a good value in his next race.

The connections are considering changing his name to: "The Only Play Here."

:D

Tom
06-11-2017, 09:59 AM
You're right- that was uncalled to insult a racehorse like that.
I should have called him Looking FOR Lucky! :cool: