View Full Version : Belmont Day Value Plays

06-09-2017, 12:29 PM
Here are my value plays for Saturday's graded stakes races at Belmont.

There is no rain in the forecast so Im assuming a fast / firm track.

Race 3- The Brooklyn
The two favorites here, :4: Send It In and :5: Tu Brutus have eye-popping beyers on their resumes (119 & 118). These two will be very hard to beat(gulp), but thats what value playing is all about, going against the grain and coming up with overlays. My pick is :3: Sunny Ridge 10-1, hoping hell be flying late with the :5: , :6: & :7: caught in a speed duel. Coming off a bad effort on a sloppy track in his last. The extra rest should help with Servis at 29% off that layoff.

Race 4- The Acorn
:4: Salty 4-1 is also coming off a bad effort in the slop, the Kentucky Oaks. a race she was the favorite in.

Race 5 Ogden Phipps
:5: Songbird will be tough to beat here and thats an understatement!
:7: Carina Mia 6-1 (the 2nd ML fav) is the only one who has been able to stay in the same zipcode with her. Won the Acorn last year so she likes the track, second off a layoff and again, coming off a bad slop effort. Shes a year older and would be worth a shot at 6-1, but I doubt well get that.

Race 6 Jaipur (Turf sprint)
Finally a race with weak favorites and plenty of opportunities. :10: Stormy Liberal 5-1 is coming off four straight wins and I see him tracking the speed then pouncing. I like his outside position too, where hes seemed to score his best Beyers from.

Race 7 Woody Stevens
:10: Long Haul Bay 5-1 Chad Brown has been hot lately and is 25% coming off that layoff. Although only his third lifetime start, Colt is 2 for 2 and has been working lights out.

Race 8 Just a Game(Turf)
:7: Antonoe 8-1 Who can pass up the JJ-Brown team at 8-1? With all the rain weve had, the turf should be slow enough to prevent the speedballs ( :5: & :6: ) from running away with it.

Race 9 The Met
:12: Awesome Slew 6-1 is another closer with an outside position-an angle I like. Although :5: Sharp Aztek could very well lap the field, Im hoping that the :9: & :10: make him work for the lead.

Race 10 Manhattan (Turf)
:5: Ascend 20-1 This candy-ride bred, 5-year-old gelding will be making his second start of the year, and could be coming into his own. Of his twelve lifetime races, hes won five, and placed in four others, and never lost by more than 4 lengths in the other three. Jose Ortiz gets the mount here for Motion Graham.

Race 11 Belmont Stakes
:9: Meantime 15-1 Mike Smiths aboard this colt who almost wired the field last time out in the Peter Pan. This is the only front-runner Im picking today. Hell need to get the lead, which should be no problem since hes surrounded by slowpokes on both sides.

Lemon Drop Husker
06-09-2017, 10:22 PM
Good stuff Redboard.

My thoughts.

R3 G2 Brooklyn: Like your :3: Sunny Ridge as a shot, but certainly don't see :7: War Story caught up in a speed duel. :3: has beat one of the chalks in :4: Send it In recently, but has also recently been spanked by :7: War Story. :5: Tu Brutus could walk, but I'll haplessly fire some $ at the :7:. :6: can't be forgotten. 15 for 17 ITM the last 2 years.

R4 G1 Acorn: :3: Abel Tasman will likely be a lot of singles. I think the :1: Union Strike has a real shot in here. Hard for me to see anything else including the :7: or :8:

R5 G1 Ogden Phipps: The Free Square in Songbird should at least be fun to watch. Might waste some money on the :2: Paid Up Subscriber for craps and giggles.

R6 G3 Jaipur: Might be the race of the day. :5::9: have my interest along with the obvious :3::4:.

R7 G2 Woody Stephens: Maybe the toughest race on the card. I can easily go inside/outside right now with :1: Giuseppe the Great and :11: Petrov. :4: Gold for the King is extremely interesting. Hard for me to see anybody wiring this thing, thus :3::5::6::7::8: all seem susceptible to me in here.

R8: G1 Just A Game: Could :6: Sassy Little Lila be lone speed and steal this one? :1::2::5: will take lion's share of money. I see :1: Dickinson as the best of those right now.

R9: G1 Met Mile: Crazy race. I'm on :2::7::12: in some form or fashion. Really see the :7: Economic Model has having serious shot in his 2nd effort as a 4YO in here. Working like a champ and the Brown/Ortiz factor could be in play.

R10: G1 Manhattan: I'm solid on :4::5::9:. Likely :4::9: in horizontals, and will likely play the :5: as one of my bombs of the day.

R11: G1 Belmont Stakes: :1::2::3::10::12:. That is what I see. Like :2: Tapwrit and :12: Patch and then :10: Multiplier.

06-10-2017, 12:01 AM
Race 1: :2:
Race 2: :8:
Race 3: :1:
Race 4: :8:
Race 6: :6:
Race 7: :10:
Race 8: :7:
Race 9: :11:
Race 10: :4:
Race 11: :2:
Race 12: :2b:
Race 13: :5:

Beat the chalk day. Leave these horses off your tickets if you hate money........:headbanger::headbanger::headbanger:

06-10-2017, 10:10 AM
Running P-3's :bang:

1. 2 7

2. 3 7 9

3. 4 5

4. 1 3

5. 5

6. 3 4

7. 4 7 8 10

8. 1 2 3 7

9. 8 9 12

10. 4 7 9

11. 2 9 10

12. 4 5 10 11

13. 3 9


06-10-2017, 11:00 AM
Will use two horses in some races

Race 1) :6: Ran on that biased track at aqueduct off the layoff. The second at Parx to awesome slew is also a good race. I will consider the :9: as well. Very good works on deep saratoga training track

Race 2) :8: I think this horse can improve big time off of his last race

Race 3) :1: sentimental pick here. Maybe the governor can pull it off for me. He can get this distance

Race 4) :8:

Race 5) Songbird will be extremely difficult to beat. Ill probably pass this race, but at the right price Ill use :7:

Race 6) Belmont main track workouts translate to turf. Like :3: but Ill have to use both clement horses. I like the :2: better Because I think there could be a big pace

Race 7) :4: and :11:

Race 8) :5: Best horse in the race without question in my opinion

Race 9) :7: :11:

Race 10) :1: If speed is bad, :7:. I dont think Ill use both in Win bets but Ill play Tris and hope to catch a bomb
. Hopefully the All button will be kind
Race 11) :7:

06-10-2017, 11:01 AM
Race 1: :2:
Race 2: :8:
Race 3: :1:
Race 4: :8:
Race 6: :6:
Race 7: :10:
Race 8: :7:
Race 9: :11:
Race 10: :4:
Race 11: :2:
Race 12: :2b:
Race 13: :5:

Beat the chalk day. Leave these horses off your tickets if you hate money........:headbanger::headbanger::headbanger:

Hey Soon

I made this discovery with the Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 in Stakes races on the Turf going back to 2016

Let's see if Brown can come through today for at least 1 chalk:

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivestakestrfbelstrk.jpg

This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation

Interesting to note, C C Brown has 9 out of the 15 wins in this situation his horses have only lost twice

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c brownstakestrktrfbel.jpg

You are getting a 65% return per $2 win wager for this situation not too shabby for a bunch of favorites!!!

Let's see if C C Brown can continue his streak of Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 winning on the Turf at Belmont going 1 Mile or better

So far, he has a win streak of 3 in a row and 9 of the last 11 have won for him in this situation!!!

He has this today in the 8th race:
8th race
#2 Roca Rojo

Let's see if he can extend the streak to 4 in a row today at Belmont!!!

06-10-2017, 11:04 AM
Race 2 -- Easy Goer Stakes, 6-7-3-1

Race 3 -- Brooklyn Handicap, 5-1-6-4

Race 4 -- Acorn Stakes, 8-5-3-1

Race 5 -- O Phipps, 5-6-1-7

Race 7 -- Woody Stephens, 4-3-8-2

Race 9 -- Metropolitan Mile, [5]-11-12-9

Race 11 -- Belmont Stakes, 9-7-3-12

Race 13 -- 10-4-9-5

Good luck, everyone.

06-10-2017, 12:06 PM
Race 1 #5 tathqueef (firing bullets)
Race 2 #7 west coast (comes right back. Top speed)
Race 3 #6 doyouknowsomething (nice place last, rates high on speed. Upset price)
Race 4 #3 Abel Tasman (Top speed. loves the distance)
Race 5 #6 Bar of gold (Top speed. Nice place last. Wins at the distance)
Race 6 #7 Hogy ( Top speed. Best average class. Best class last)
Race 7 #8 American Anthem. (Great works, Top pace and speed. Loves to win)
Race 8 Pass
Race 9 #5 Sharp Azteca (Top speed and pace. 4 for6 at the distance.)
Race 10 #4 time test (top speed. Nice place last. 4 for 6 at the distance)
Race 11 #3 Gormley ( Top speed and pace. Should fire today)
Race 12 #11 Hello Don Julio (Top speed and pace. Nice place last. 2 for 8 at a route of ground)
Race 13 #5 River echo (Hunch play. Wesley Ward and John Valazquez. Love the cutback angle)

06-10-2017, 12:12 PM
Race 1 :1: vincento 5-2

06-10-2017, 12:27 PM
Race 1 :1: vincento 5-2

Alright if Tom is in then I want :4: Battle Midway at around 10-1.

06-10-2017, 12:38 PM
Alright if Tom is in then I want :4: Battle Midway at around 10-1.

I think we dead-heated for seventh. I knew we could do it together.

06-10-2017, 12:48 PM
I'm doing much better in the NYRA thread.