Projected Key Races

[KingChas]

Key races can be an awesome betting tool.But does anyone project a key race?I have been doing this for the last year with excellent results.Most people are aware of key races after the fact.Ex. horses coming out of same last race are winning.I am trying to stay 2 steps ahead of betting public,usually look for non stakes possible future key race.So far this year at Saratoga I have found two possible future key races.Has anyone else tried this ?
I'm trying a little kinky handicapping here.I won't tell you which ones but a tight finish (1-2-3-4) is a hint.Good Luck!

[lefthandlow]

now how do you decide your key race by horses running

faster than par?OR is your method dif or something NEW??LL

[Valuist]

Absolutely. It definitely can be done. A lot of it is just common sense. Ever see a Maiden race with 3 horses coming off solid 2nds with big Beyers, 2 others coming off 3rds and a few well bred first timers?

In another thread I mentioned a new angle, in which the top 2 speed figure horses get beat but run a solid 2nd and 3rd. Chances are the horse that beat them ran lights out and its probably a key race.

I also look for races with an usual number of early speed horses. Not everyone can get the lead on the rail and a few horses will have deceptively bad finishes.

[JustMissed]

What good does it do you to know if a key race is going to happen in the future when you can't bet on any of those horse in another(future) race til a much later date?

What am I missing?

JM:)

[Valuist]

You notate it in your charts (if you keep them) or in a notebook or on a spreadsheet. When a horse who runs well in one of those races runs back, you have a live contender. No different from trip handicapping. The results pay off later.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by JustMissed
What good does it do you to know if a key race is going to happen in the future when you can't bet on any of those horse in another(future) race til a much later date?

What am I missing?

JM:)

KingChas said he was two steps of the public and was looking for "future" key races.

My question was why bother looking for future key races?

Shouldn't you wait for a key race to occur and then mark it in your charts so you can look for runners coming out of that key races?

I don't get it.

JM

[KingChas]

I'm basically looking for a price.Last (key race) may not look good in form.Hidden value.I didn't mean to insult people with the 2 steps ahead comment,sorry.Just mean't trying to think differently.

I'ts easy to look at a horse who ran a decent race and came in the money-(1-2-3).It's more challenging to find a (4-5-etc) horse coming out of the projected key race at a price.Kinda basic horsesense,but often overlooked by the public.

[Valuist]

JM-

If you wait, you'll miss out on the real prices. After two horses win out, then the public starts jumping on the bandwagon. But if you're proactive, you may be able to catch those first two winners before the crowd tags along.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by Valuist
JM-

If you wait, you'll miss out on the real prices. After two horses win out, then the public starts jumping on the bandwagon. But if you're proactive, you may be able to catch those first two winners before the crowd tags along.

Yeah, I get it now. It was a matter of semantics.

You're not predicating that a future race is going to be a key race, what you are predicating is that a past race was a key race.

The reason you are predicating that the key race WAS a key race is because you don't know for sure till the runners start showing up in the winner's circle in future races.

I misunderstood KingChas. I thought he was predicting future race to be key races before they were even run.

Thanks for the clarification.

JM

[lefthandlow]

hey you guys that follow keyraces like moi.Post a few and

I will also.Right now the barrel is 1/2 dry my key races have dried

up at NY cuz of mother nature slop is the killer.

i'll give you a horse that ran in a key race at elp #2 honece ***

this horse runs second for 15000 nw3 and the trainer jumps

it up to 30000..The horse is a closer and elp has been speed the

other day and the fav #6 is lone speed.So this trainer is tiping

his hand so to speak.He knows the race was big and a key

race.So how does one play it..Exacta cold 6/2 ..I guess what I'm

saying is trainers tip key races also..Just a thought..LL

[Tom]

DRF F4 allows you to look at how every horse has come back from any specific race and allows you to look at the PP's of the horses in the ptotential key race at a keystroke. It is a terrific tool for real time race analyzing.

[keilan]

If you wait, you'll miss out on the real prices. After two horses win out, then the public starts jumping on the bandwagon. But if you're proactive, you may be able to catch those first two winners before the crowd tags along.

I’ve made the same statement numerous times in other “key race“ threads. My comment is why would any player waste 2 bullets to determine if such-and-such race was in fact a key race. Waiting to see at least two horses win before labelling a previous race “key” is ludicrous. Hey but everyone to their own :) :)

[Valuist]

A couple observations in trying to determine future key races. In maiden races, I look at the 2 or 3 favorites. Are they first timers who are favored because the rest of the field sucks? Or are they coming off seconds with Beyers of 85? Is the field lightly raced or littered with 0 for 20 rats? If you have a few horses with solid Beyers and they are getting beat by 1st time starters, chances are those first timers were very tough and its a likely future key race.

In maiden claiming, I look at how many are dropping from higher levels. Is the winner a horse that's only run 4 times before and showed speed previously and today's race was at its lowest level? If a M10000 race is won by a horse who's already failed several times at that level, its very likely a poor field, even at that low condition.

One NW1X race that I predicted would be key was in late April at Aqu. It was a turf race and several horses had already run very big races on the turf. But the winner was making his first start on turf. That was Icy Atlantic. He ended up becoming a stakes winner and numerous horses ended up graduating from the NW1X level, although all were not in their next race.

I'm waiting to see how the Right On Ro race from mid July at Belmont turns out. The bottom horses may be worthless but the 2-4 horses I think are all alive and the winner could very well handle the jump to FNW1X.

[lefthandlow]

boy that is a nice feature that form 4 has.LL

[lefthandlow]

key race horse fin 3d.. speed is too much there.

this is a perfect example of trainer blowing a horse sitting on a win.Could have found a 15k race for this horse.So that's how a trainer blows a good chance for a win...So put this one in your stable mail and look for a drop to 15k..LL

[andicap]

Interesting reason why having a meet condition book would be important. What if there wasn't a race for 15K for another 10 days and the trainer had a horse who was kicking down the doors and wanted to run?
Or what if the 15K race was several days ago and it rained and the trainer scratched it out?
Sometimes races don't fill so a trainer has to put his horse in a race that wasn't its first choice or risk keeping him in the barn too long. (That doesn't pay the bills.)

Note: I don't do this now, but it sure sounds like a good idea especially if you're looking at trainer intentions.

[hurrikane]

Andi,

that's a great point..actually the talking head on one of the 2 horse shows (who would have thought you would say that in our lifetime) was talking about a horse at I believe EVD.

His point was..why was the horse there. Then he looked back over a couple of weeks and said there were no lower races for the horse to run condition wise and the trainer knew he was ready to go.

Won...paid I think 17.90. Not sure..but it was the first meaningful information I had gleened from the gel head in a week.

guess I should put him on my christmas list. ....NOT.. he is, after all, a gel head. :D

[lefthandlow]

andi
I agree that's a good idea about the condition book.LL

[TriSuper]

Condition books are a great idea. I've been downloading them from NYRA for sometime now.

I find them useful for winners of NW1x and NW2x to see what races may be available for them in the near future.


The link below is for the Saratoga book (opening day - August 16).

Saratoga (http://www.nyra.com/chart/sarcb1.pdf)