PaceAdvantage
06-07-2017, 12:33 PM
OK, this is one gigantic serious redboard. No, I did not bet this superfecta. But, I've been keeping track of exactas, trifectas and superfectas involving my "Value Races & Horses" top pick overlays.
I am keeping track of straight exactas, tris and supers, as well as keying my top pick (when an overlay) over all my other contenders. Sometimes I have two contenders (and thus no tri or super opportunities), sometimes I have 3, 4, 5 or even 6, but 6 is very rare.
So, after 170 races (I haven't been tracking from the start) and with 48 of those 170 races qualifying for a superfecta (meaning, at least 4 contenders), I hit my first superfecta the other day on paper (not cold, but keying my top choice in the win spot only, over all my other contenders). I had five contenders in this particular race. My top choice won at 4-1, and the heavy favorite finished in the money...but the superfecta paid about $4,800 thanks to a 64-1 shot that finished 4th (who was my fifth contender)....there was only about $18,000 in the pool, so if I had played this, I would have only gotten back about $3,500 or so since there were only three winning tickets I gathered, and I would have been the fourth (I'm using my crazy gorilla math here, so don't hate on me if my numbers aren't exactly right).
So after putting in a theoretical $876 dollars in superfecta plays, I have hit my first (and only one thus far), for about $3,500.
An outlier I'm sure...but just trying to show that you might be doing a lot more harm than good by trying to spread far and wide in the superfecta...the ALL button is NOT your friend when you have a reliable method of selecting overlaid winners in the top spot.
You also need deep pockets to play this way.
My research continues.
I am keeping track of straight exactas, tris and supers, as well as keying my top pick (when an overlay) over all my other contenders. Sometimes I have two contenders (and thus no tri or super opportunities), sometimes I have 3, 4, 5 or even 6, but 6 is very rare.
So, after 170 races (I haven't been tracking from the start) and with 48 of those 170 races qualifying for a superfecta (meaning, at least 4 contenders), I hit my first superfecta the other day on paper (not cold, but keying my top choice in the win spot only, over all my other contenders). I had five contenders in this particular race. My top choice won at 4-1, and the heavy favorite finished in the money...but the superfecta paid about $4,800 thanks to a 64-1 shot that finished 4th (who was my fifth contender)....there was only about $18,000 in the pool, so if I had played this, I would have only gotten back about $3,500 or so since there were only three winning tickets I gathered, and I would have been the fourth (I'm using my crazy gorilla math here, so don't hate on me if my numbers aren't exactly right).
So after putting in a theoretical $876 dollars in superfecta plays, I have hit my first (and only one thus far), for about $3,500.
An outlier I'm sure...but just trying to show that you might be doing a lot more harm than good by trying to spread far and wide in the superfecta...the ALL button is NOT your friend when you have a reliable method of selecting overlaid winners in the top spot.
You also need deep pockets to play this way.
My research continues.