PDA

View Full Version : The case for Gormley in the Belmont Stakes


letswastemoney
06-06-2017, 10:06 PM
Positives
- Versatile. Can press the leader or settle back a few lengths.
- Two-time GI winner
- Ran wide in Kentucky Derby, when the race arguably favored inside path
- No holes pedigree-wise
- Most everyone lost faith in him, which means he should offer value

Negatives
-Might be too slow, even with best effort
-Shirreffs waited a long time before final decision. Maybe a sign he lacks confidence?

Robert Fischer
06-07-2017, 12:08 PM
Positives
- Versatile. Can press the leader or settle back a few lengths.

Been committed to stalking ever since he won the Santa Anita Derby.


- Two-time GI winner

Being 3rd best while winning the Santa Anita Derby, and winning the 2016 Frontrunner Stakes doesn't mean much beyond blacktype and earnings.


- Ran wide in Kentucky Derby, when the race arguably favored inside path
This should contribute to value. He ran roughly as good as Gunnevera and McCraken in the Derby. That's not a negative. Either of those guys could hit the board with a good trip or win with a rare dream trip. I think one of those guys got bumped or shuffled from that rough break, in the Derby. Gormley flattened out a bit more and finished slower relative to those two but was slightly more forward, and did relatively more work early, bump or not.


- No holes pedigree-wise

Almost all of these Belmont entrants either have royal pedigree, or can at least run a little.


- Most everyone lost faith in him, which means he should offer value

This is your best case for having him on a ticket, of those stated. A lot of these other factors are basically saying "well, you can't 1000% eliminate all hope".

Nutz and Boltz
06-07-2017, 01:33 PM
Just on the good race/bad race angle , the horse is due to run well and is my "three days before the race selection" if odds are good. Like the connections, too.

letswastemoney
06-07-2017, 04:40 PM
ML is a little too low for me at 8-1. We'll see.