FlintAtTheFetlock
06-06-2017, 06:34 PM
The only experience I have with data files is BRISNET PP's when at one time I put some effort into crunching my own speed figures using an Access database. With that said, how would I go about researching an antidotal observation I have where 'odds on' favorites in lower to mid-level races finish 3rd or 4th? The angle is to find a clear, isolated second choice, and play cheap TRI and SUPER's. If multiple horses close in odds for runner up, don't play.
TRIFECTA
ALL // Second Post Time Horse // Odds on Favorite
SUPER
ALL // Second Post Time Horse // ALL // Odds on Favorite
SUPER
ALL// ALL // Second Post Time Horse/ Odds on Favorite
The idea is to bet small and hope the angle hits. Even if only 5% one score could cover the losses when an odd's on favorite finishes 3rd or 4th and the second choice gets beat. The proposition does not present all that often so its not tossing money around . It could be a relaxed way to weather slumps when your best handicapping is failing miserably :bang:
So where would one go to analyze this criteria? I 'd like to see if my observation is just a hunch or there is some data to back it up.
Thoughts? Resources? I do have programming and database experience, but don't want to rack my brain relearning coding syntax.
Criteria:
PT Favorite <= 1.0
PT Second Choice >= 5-2
PT Third Choice >= 6.0
Horses >= 8
Class < = Allowance @40k
Results:
PT Favorite 3rd or 4th
PT Second Choice 2nd (or 3rd)
That's what I'm looking for.
Thanks,
Flint
TRIFECTA
ALL // Second Post Time Horse // Odds on Favorite
SUPER
ALL // Second Post Time Horse // ALL // Odds on Favorite
SUPER
ALL// ALL // Second Post Time Horse/ Odds on Favorite
The idea is to bet small and hope the angle hits. Even if only 5% one score could cover the losses when an odd's on favorite finishes 3rd or 4th and the second choice gets beat. The proposition does not present all that often so its not tossing money around . It could be a relaxed way to weather slumps when your best handicapping is failing miserably :bang:
So where would one go to analyze this criteria? I 'd like to see if my observation is just a hunch or there is some data to back it up.
Thoughts? Resources? I do have programming and database experience, but don't want to rack my brain relearning coding syntax.
Criteria:
PT Favorite <= 1.0
PT Second Choice >= 5-2
PT Third Choice >= 6.0
Horses >= 8
Class < = Allowance @40k
Results:
PT Favorite 3rd or 4th
PT Second Choice 2nd (or 3rd)
That's what I'm looking for.
Thanks,
Flint