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Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 02:31 PM
$2 a race best value

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 02:33 PM
I'm looking at races ≥ $30,000 Purse

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 02:38 PM
No state breds unless they are 30K fields in open-company.

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 03:11 PM
Woodbine 3
$2 win :2:

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 03:12 PM
Woodbine 3
$2 win :2:


just realized that Da Silva is 8 or 9/1
anytime you see that with a horse with 4 legs, probably good try a gimmick.

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 03:16 PM
Woodbine 3
$2 win :2:

second best on a $9.30 horse. Lost to the $3.40 chalk in a race where the pace lasted until deep stretch. Both horses moved in tandem, driven through the wire.

(-$2)

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 03:29 PM
Belmont race 3

$2 cold exacta :4: w/ :3:


Vision Perfect (3) comes out of a race where he made a subtle move to get into striking range behind a strong controlling chalk.
Today he potentially makes that move to tackle the pace (1), a horse who has been becoming a 'victim' in the stretch.
(4) Trombelaine is currently 1/5 for Chad Brown, and is likely a higher quality than these.
(7) Dowse's Beach is a cool horse, we've all followed with Cristophe Clement, and has been claimed by high% trainer Brad Cox for 62K last time. Figures to take money, but Cox will have to find a way to improve this horse in order to contend. Certainly the main exacta spoiler threat.

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 03:49 PM
Belmont race 3

$2 cold exacta :4: w/ :3:


Vision Perfect (3) comes out of a race where he made a subtle move to get into striking range behind a strong controlling chalk.
Today he potentially makes that move to tackle the pace (1), a horse who has been becoming a 'victim' in the stretch.
(4) Trombelaine is currently 1/5 for Chad Brown, and is likely a higher quality than these.
(7) Dowse's Beach is a cool horse, we've all followed with Cristophe Clement, and has been claimed by high% trainer Brad Cox for 62K last time. Figures to take money, but Cox will have to find a way to improve this horse in order to contend. Certainly the main exacta spoiler threat.


Great job by Brad Cox to improve Dowse's Beach(7).
Dowse's beach took the initiative from the pace setter (1), then opened up and lead the field into the lane and gamely ran on.
Vision Perfect(3) sat in striking range behind Dowse's Beach, and finished well.
(4) Trombelaine had a big turn of foot late to get the place.

(-$4)

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 04:15 PM
Churchill R6

$1 exacta :2::3: w/ :1:

This could turn out to be a very weak field.
:1:Bowman West for rejuvinated Jack Van Berg, made a decent move to break maiden vs a controlling chalk that didn't quit last time. Poor speed figures help price.

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 04:20 PM
Churchill R6

$1 exacta :2::3: w/ :1:

This could turn out to be a very weak field.
:1:Bowman West for rejuvinated Jack Van Berg, made a decent move to break maiden vs a controlling chalk that didn't quit last time. Poor speed figures help price.


Made no impact, finished far back, distanced from field.

You don't have to hit those very often to make a profit, but you'd like to see your selections contend. With the benefit of hindsight, the 1 would have been poor value as $1,000 exacta.

(-$6)

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 05:13 PM
Belmont race 6

$2 Exacta :5: w/ :1:

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 05:22 PM
Belmont race 6

$2 Exacta :5: w/ :1:
5-1 exacta returns $17

(+9)

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 05:45 PM
Race 7 Belmont
$2 win on :4:

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 05:53 PM
Race 7 Belmont
$2 win on :4:

stopped after setting a hot pace

(+7)

Robert Fischer
06-05-2017, 12:05 PM
monday

Parx 3 40k purse turf sprint.

Parx 5 46k MSW

Finger Lakes 7 50k stakes

Delaware 3 34k MSW

Delaware 6 34k MSW

Delaware 9 36k allowance

Robert Fischer
06-05-2017, 02:46 PM
Parx r3

$1 Double :4: :7: w/ :5:


(+5)

Robert Fischer
06-05-2017, 03:00 PM
Parx r5

$2 Win :7:

(+3)

Robert Fischer
06-06-2017, 01:07 PM
Tuesday

Parx r7 50k

Robert Fischer
06-06-2017, 04:02 PM
when you only have one qualifier, I guess that maker her the RACE O' THE DAY. :headbanger:

F&M OC40n3x $50kpurse 1m70yds

:1: PLEASANT MINE
:2: SERIOUS HAPPINESS
:3: TRACE OF GRACE
:4: LINE OF BEST FIT
:5: FLATTER ME ZANJA
:6: LA INESPERADA

ACT I: "the 5/16 race"
:1::4::5: exit the 5/16 race at this class.
Subtle dynamics. :4: LINE OF BEST FIT Fired off to a strong start wide, as did :1: PLEASANT MINE while very wide.
Meanwhile, Toledo, and Pennington on :5: FLATTER ME ZANJA, rode intelligent races saving ground and horse for the late run.
:4: LINE OF BEST FIT briefly won the speed duel inside her rival, and then took on Toledo's winning filly for a few strides, before flattening out and running evenly with :1: PLEASANT MINE.
:5: FLATTER ME ZANJA capitalized and came up to take 2nd while showing decent energy and fundamentals, although lugging-out a bit.

Subtle, but it appears that :1: PLEASANT MINE and :4: LINE OF BEST FIT were probably best out of that race.


ACT II: "Gary Sciacca ships in the :6:"
:6: LA INESPERADA has a history of flattening out. Claimed 2 back from Rudy/Dubb for $32K. Last race hounded a reasonably live Linda Rice filly Game Girl going a mile on the turf. Her chart looks better than her replay, as Game Girl briefly put her away, while :6: faded, and was then persevered more than Game Girl. She adds some additional quality to the pace. Tempting to consider as a price. She doesn't have as much of a class edge as some other NY -> Philly shippers.

ACT III: pace projecter
(benefits Pennington and the :5:)
:2:..............:1::4:
.........:5:......:3:
................:6:


Conclusion: Race Flow will ultimately be the strongest model in this race. :5: should stalk and pounce, with :4:(likeliest) or :1:(next likeliest) holding for Place, after winning the race-within-the-race vs the other early speeds.

Not exactly a dream value scenario. :1: or :6: are the two that you hope to use, to inject some value. They just don't seem to fit.
I guess the :5: winning late here could look visually impressive enough, that it will create value by betting against the :5: next out. Hopefully this is not the race where she finishes out of the exacta after a dull bid behind the horses knocking heads on the pace.

Robert Fischer
06-06-2017, 04:32 PM
:4: is cold in pick3's and exactas, as well as the early WPS

:1: is taking money

Robert Fischer
06-06-2017, 04:33 PM
Parx r7

$1 ex box :1::5:

(+1)

Robert Fischer
06-06-2017, 04:54 PM
:coffee: 4 wins and pays $15
Wonder why the 4 was ice cold on the board?? Looked like the best horse in the race, while being a likely race flow victim.

That contested pace never materialized, and the 5 chose today to throw in the dull effort.

Not only do I feel bad that I didn't bet my opinion at a price, I don't get to bet against the 5 next time. :D

Robert Fischer
06-07-2017, 03:13 PM
$1 exacta :3::4: over :2:

(-$1)


(2) Dream Saturday is in good form, and his good form is darkened by the race vs. Clearly Now, and the class-drop last time.

Robert Fischer
06-07-2017, 07:47 PM
$1 exacta :3::4: over :2:

(-$1)


(2) Dream Saturday is in good form, and his good form is darkened by the race vs. Clearly Now, and the class-drop last time.


"DREAM SATURDAY raced five wide in the backstretch then picked up the pace
past the half, gained position near three eighths pole, continued driving five wide in the lane, was no match for clear winner, kept along to finish second best."

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 04:12 PM
Belmont r7
50cent trifecta :5: w/ :4::8::11: w/ :4::11:


I think the 11, Divine Interventio is an interesting horse. This race is basically a 90K ungraded stakes. Good horses.

(-$3)

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 04:20 PM
Belmont r6

$2 Show on :14: St Louie

Should get a generous payout if I hit this. I think I see some subtle form. Hopefully they don't walk on the pace. Guessing Pletcher's 1 being a likely pace setter, and horses like the 7, 10 , 11 trying to keep the 1 honest.

(-$5)

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 04:40 PM
Belmont r4

$2 win :4:

(-$7)

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 04:50 PM
Belmont r4

$2 win :4:

(-$7)

$5.10 winner

(-$1.90)

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 05:16 PM
Bel 5

$1 ex bx :2::3:

($-3.90)

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 05:19 PM
Bel 5

$1 ex bx :2::3:

($-3.90)

If the public would do their part, I'd be way up in this thread. :coffee:

Robert Fischer
06-08-2017, 05:57 PM
Belmont r6

$2 Show on :14: St Louie

Should get a generous payout if I hit this. I think I see some subtle form. Hopefully they don't walk on the pace. Guessing Pletcher's 1 being a likely pace setter, and horses like the 7, 10 , 11 trying to keep the 1 honest.


St. Louie proved best. Show pays $5.10

(+1.2) back above the surface *gasp*

Robert Fischer
06-09-2017, 03:28 PM
Belmont r4

$1 Win :5::2:

Robert Fischer
06-09-2017, 03:31 PM
(-$0.80)

that was a dumb bet. 'do-something syndrome'

Robert Fischer
06-09-2017, 05:29 PM
$1 Exacta :4::8: w/ :2:


(-$2.80)

Robert Fischer
06-09-2017, 06:49 PM
$1 win on :3::4:

(-$4.80)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 01:06 PM
belmont r2

$2 Win :7:

(-$6.80)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 01:11 PM
belmont r2

$2 Win :7:

(-$6.80)
returns $5.70

(-$1.10)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 01:37 PM
belmont r3

$2 Win :7:

(-$3.10)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 01:47 PM
belmont r3

$2 Win :7:

(-$3.10)

returns $10.00

back above the surface again *gasp*

(+6.90)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 03:59 PM
$2 cold exacta :8: w/ :10:

(+$4.90)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 04:01 PM
woody stephens^^

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 04:56 PM
belmont r8

$1 Double :7: w/ :5::9:


(+$2.90)

Robert Fischer
06-10-2017, 05:44 PM
belmont r8

$1 Double :7: w/ :5::9:


(+$2.90)

returns $18.10

(+$21.00)

Robert Fischer
06-11-2017, 04:25 PM
have to break a rule and bet low quality horses for this bet-back

$1 Win on :2: and :3:


The 5 Oltre Oro got 2nd last time with a very cheap last move. 5 is currently favored.

(+$19.00)

Robert Fischer
06-11-2017, 05:43 PM
$2 Show :5:


($+17.00)

Robert Fischer
06-11-2017, 05:48 PM
$2 Show :5:


($+17.00)

I should have cancelled that wager. Late money took all of the value.

file that mistake under 'do-something syndrome'

Robert Fischer
06-12-2017, 03:06 PM
$0.50 TRI :1::7:
$0.50 TRI :1::4::7:
$0.50 TRI :1::4::7:

The 1 and 7 seem likely to contend for the win.
Neither is a lock. Both are ultra-obvious and relatively void of value.
1 comes in from Fla/NY. Hasn't been very good with his footwork, but has run fine.
7 is a first time gelding project for a top local trainer(John Servis). 3rd start w/ trainer, 3rd off layoff. Has improved under JS care.

The 8's luck has run out.
The 5 may rebound, but appears just as likely to be very much off form, and due for a layoff.

Process of elimination best justifies a look at the :4:.
This is one of those types that you try to properly class, and use on the step-up in class if you feel there is value. This one is a bit of a reach, but the fact that the 8 and 5 will take money, and the 2 is scratched, make using the 4 more reasonable.

(+$15)

Robert Fischer
06-13-2017, 05:35 PM
$2 Show :10:

(+$13)

Robert Fischer
06-14-2017, 02:15 PM
50cent Tri :1::2: w/ :6::7: w/ :4:

(+$11)

Robert Fischer
06-17-2017, 03:45 PM
$1 Double :2: w/ :3::9:

(+$9)

Robert Fischer
06-17-2017, 04:10 PM
$1 Double :2: w/ :3::9:

(+$9)

REFUND (card cancelled)

(+$11)

Robert Fischer
06-18-2017, 05:17 PM
$1 Double :3::7: w/ :5:

Robert Fischer
06-20-2017, 02:45 PM
Parx race 3
$2 Win :2:

($7)

Robert Fischer
06-20-2017, 03:17 PM
Parx race 4

$2 Win :1:
Unless Zuleta and Preciado(favored 7) are working in tandem, the 1 is a great price here for super-trainer MZ

($5)

Robert Fischer
06-21-2017, 09:14 PM
race 4 woodbine pick 3
20cent pk3
1249 / 23 / 4 = $1.60

($3.40)

Robert Fischer
06-21-2017, 09:35 PM
race 5 woodbine

$1 Double :9: w/ :2::4: =$2

($1.40)

Robert Fischer
06-21-2017, 10:03 PM
race 6 woodine

$1 ex box :2::4:

(-$0.60)

Robert Fischer
06-22-2017, 03:48 PM
$1 Win :6: and :8:

(-$2.60)

Robert Fischer
06-23-2017, 04:40 PM
$2 Show on :6:

(-$4.60)

Robert Fischer
06-23-2017, 05:07 PM
$1 ex box :1::3:

(-$6.60)

Robert Fischer
06-23-2017, 05:42 PM
0.10 SU 1, 2
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 5, 8, 9
$0.10 SU 4
Wager Total $1.80

(-$8.40)

Robert Fischer
06-23-2017, 06:49 PM
$1 exacta :1: w/ :4::6:

(-$10.40)

Robert Fischer
06-23-2017, 07:22 PM
50cent Tri :1::2::6: w/ :1::2: w/:7:

(-$12.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 01:45 PM
$1 Double :2: w/ :3::6:

I should know better to bet closers at MP, but I have two watch-listers in r2 and the 7 while most likely winner is being bet like a reliable horse. 7 is more likely but not 5X more likely.

(-$14.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 01:56 PM
No cigar.
7 had an easier time of it at this class, and was able to change leads, and finish the race this time.
2 ran his same also-ran slow race, and did not have quitting horses coming back to him.

$1 Double :2: w/ :3::6:

I should know better to bet closers at MP, but I have two watch-listers in r2 and the 7 while most likely winner is being bet like a reliable horse. 7 is more likely but not 5X more likely.

(-$14.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 02:03 PM
$1 Double :3::6: w/ :3:

(-$16.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 02:06 PM
$1 Exacta :5: w/ :3::6:

(-$18.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 02:16 PM
changing this
$1 Exacta :6: w/ :3::5:

(-$18.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 02:41 PM
$1 ex :3: w/ :2::4:
(-$20.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 03:16 PM
$2 exacta (cold) :1: w/:7:

(-$22.40) losing streak continues

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 03:49 PM
$2 show :5:
(-$24.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 03:52 PM
not for the thread
my 50cent tri play
$0.50 TRI1, 5, 9
$0.50 TRI1, 5, 6, 9
$0.50 TRI5, 6, 7
Wager Total $9.50

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 04:09 PM
new pecking order for the jockeys in this specific field
No ortiz bros ... let's see Saez .. .who else? Franco and Lezcano are next best

I'll add in the FTS 7 with Lezcano to an otherwise vanilla race

$1 exacta :2: w/ :6::7:

(-$26.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 04:16 PM
$2 Win :4:

(-$28.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 04:19 PM
$2 Double :3: w/ :10:

(-$30.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 04:46 PM
$2 Win :1:

(-$32.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 04:47 PM
$2 Win :10:
(-$34.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 05:13 PM
$1 ex box :2::10:

(-$36.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 05:52 PM
Thistledown r7
$1 Double :4: w/ :3::6:

(-$38.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 05:54 PM
I'm not betting another dollar of real money until I get this thread up to a positive. :coffee:

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 06:01 PM
Santa Anita r3

$1 exacta (cold) :9: w/ :3:

(-$40.40)

Robert Fischer
06-24-2017, 06:37 PM
santa anitra r4

$1 ex box :3::6:

(-$42.40)

Robert Fischer
06-27-2017, 04:14 PM
Parx r6

$1 Win on :3: and :6:

jay68802
06-27-2017, 04:22 PM
Objection Sustained?

jay68802
06-27-2017, 04:24 PM
Objection Sustained?

nope, at parx, you need more than a little rubbing, just like nascar, rubbing is racing, boys!

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 03:29 PM
Indiana r2

$1 Win on :3: and :7:

(-$46.40)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 03:42 PM
Indiana r2

$1 Win on :3: and :7:

(-$46.40)

:7: returns $3.90

(-$42.50)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 04:02 PM
Indiana r3

$1 Win on :4: and :5:

(-$44.50)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 04:21 PM
Delaware Park r5

$1 Win on :4: and :5:

(-$46.50)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 04:42 PM
Delaware Park r6

$1 Win on :4: and :10:

(-$48.50)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 04:49 PM
Thistledown r5

$1 Win on :6: and :8:

(-$50.50)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 05:02 PM
Thistledown r5

$1 Win on :6: and :8:

(-$50.50)
:8: returns $3.30
(-$47.20)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 05:05 PM
Delaware Park r6

$1 Win on :4: and :10:


:10: returns $3.90

(-$43.30)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 05:18 PM
Louisiana Downs r1
$2 win on :3:
(-$45.30)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 05:24 PM
Delaware r7
$2 win :6:

-47.30

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 06:01 PM
Indiana r7
$1 Double :2::4: w/ :9:

(-$49.30)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 06:18 PM
Indiana r8
$1 win :7: and :9:

(-$51.30)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 06:30 PM
Churchill r2

$1 win :1: and :7:

(-$53.30)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 06:36 PM
Churchill r2

$1 win :1: and :7:

(-$53.30)

7 returns $5.50

(-$47.80)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 06:40 PM
Indiana r8
$1 win :7: and :9:


7 returns $4.70

(-$43.10)

Robert Fischer
06-28-2017, 06:58 PM
churchill r3
$1 ex box :2::3:

(-$45.10)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 03:27 PM
Today is the day!

Indiana r2

$1 Win on :1: and :4:

(-$47.10)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 05:17 PM
Santa Anita r2

$1 Double :2::3: w/ :3:


(-$49.10)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 05:44 PM
Santa Anita r3

$1 Exacta :3: w/ :6::8:


(-$51.10)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 07:20 PM
Belmont r7 $1 exacta :7: w/ :1::3:

(-$53.10)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 08:27 PM
Santa Anita r8

$2 win :8:

(-$53.10)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 08:46 PM
Santa Anita r8

$2 win :8:

(-$53.10)
8 returns $12.40
(-$40.70)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 09:06 PM
Arlington r8

$1Win on :6:
$1Show on :1:

(-$42.70)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 09:19 PM
Evangeline r5
$2 Show on :11:


(-$44.70)

Robert Fischer
06-30-2017, 09:25 PM
Evangeline r5
$2 Show on :11:

11 returns $3.60
(-$41.10)

Robert Fischer
07-01-2017, 12:11 PM
$0.10 Super

$0.10 SU 2, 8
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 4, 8
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
$0.10 SU 7
Wager Total $1.80

(-$42.90)