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View Full Version : how would you bet a "sure" winner. win bet only or in combination with other be


formula_2002
06-04-2017, 11:27 AM
also how would you think a whale would l bet it.

keep reply simple

thanks

forced89
06-04-2017, 12:02 PM
3 Units Win; 2 Units Place; 1 Unit Show. But only if horse is 3-1 or better.

NorCalGreg
06-04-2017, 12:57 PM
3 Units Win; 2 Units Place; 1 Unit Show. But only if horse is 3-1 or better.

In my opinion....you are betting "defensively" f-89.

The op indicated a solid "sure thing" wager. We all know such a horse doesn't exist. But for whatever reason he's got a good reason this horse will win today. Why waste profit on place and show?

Pros, whales, and sharpies ---if not going the Exotic route--will take that entire 6 units--and bet to win.

Having said that--I had a horse recently that my software showed to be very strong in relation to the field. These horses usually go off @ 6/5 or less. This one was 7/2...I leaped into the fray with both fists.


My horse ran 3rd. I lost my prime wager, but have no regrets.

Just my opinion--NCG

dansan
06-04-2017, 01:18 PM
No such thing as a sure winner

bugboy
06-04-2017, 01:29 PM
"EMPTY POCKETS IN THE 5TH"

NorCalGreg
06-04-2017, 01:41 PM
"EMPTY POCKETS IN THE 5TH"

LOL :pound:

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 01:59 PM
First check to see if the 'Sure Winner' is going to pay fairly

if yes,

$20 Win

Singled in the best multi-race sequence that I can come up with.

Run through the checklist of vertical exotics and see if there is a value gimmick.



Whales?
In general, Whales aren't going to focus on a 'Sure Winner'. They are trying to bet as much as possible into a bettable race, and that requires arbitrage.

ultracapper
06-04-2017, 02:26 PM
Have some win money on it anyway, and then do whatever potential satisfactory return might call for. But have that win money. There has never been a time that I have had a "sure" winner and bet it in exotics this way and that, and didn't go into the win pool, and sure enough, my "sure" winner wins, and I get NADA. It's been a long time since I've done that, but it always sucked ROYAL. Bet your winners. There are plenty of races to throw the money around on.

thaskalos
06-04-2017, 02:32 PM
It all depends on how often your "sure winners" WIN. If they really ARE "sure winners"...then you bet them to WIN. Why risk turning a "sure winner" into a LOSER?

Ruffian1
06-04-2017, 02:34 PM
https://youtu.be/szwclmmKwLg

Robert Fischer
06-04-2017, 02:57 PM
The public is tough.

90% of these horses end up the favorite, or the co-favorite, or the 2nd choice.


When they can at least be described as "co-favorite", you are at least going to take someone's money.

When they are 2nd choice, it's usually because of less-than-obvious handicapping.

When they are higher odds than the public's group of contenders, you've found yourself a truly rare opportunity. A Laoban in the Jim Dandy, or an Arrogate in the Travers. These don't happen frequently enough, but are valuable enough to remain prepared, and run through a checklist of models on each race.

If the 'Sure Winner' is heavy chalk, about the best you can do is 'link' together a couple/few value races in a multi race sequence, or single on top of some live longshots in a trifecta or superfecta.

Betting to win on heavy chalk 'locks' is OK for gambling, or contests where you are required to bet each race, but going to be a hard grind in the ROI dept. You are getting a slight return now, but time discovers truth.

formula_2002
06-04-2017, 07:17 PM
thanks to all for your input.

For me, the best bet is straight win.

As far as "insurance", I look at it this way.
start off with a large enough bankroll, so if you lose the "sure" thing, you have enough left to bet the same amount on the next 50 or so "sure" things.

knowing where the money goes on "sure" things helps me with tote pool analysis. how?, I'm not sure just yet;)

Tom
06-04-2017, 08:45 PM
Assuming the presumption is correct:

Wherever there is value in making the bet.
Say the sure thing is 7-5.....you are pretty limited here.
Say it is 9-1....the options window just opened up.

BELMONT 6-6-09
06-04-2017, 08:50 PM
I am 'old school' win bet with the acceptable odds and a cold 1x2 double and/or exacta if I had a strong opinion...not a hunch, guess or maybe, never forcing a wager!! This is the way I play the game so I wager only when I have the best going for me ( until the gates open and then I have zero control). boring answer but this is my way!

oughtoh
06-04-2017, 09:29 PM
I would bet to win unless all the exactas or doubles were higher, which is unlikely.

whodoyoulike
06-05-2017, 05:35 PM
also how would you think a whale would l bet it.

keep reply simple

thanks

Don't know how whales would bet a "sure thing" but I would think it depends on the odds and pool size.

Bet everything you can on win without making a bet so large that it's no longer worth it.

I never saw value at odds of 3/5 or less maybe even at 4/5 (but sometimes I do).