Dutching @ the Mountain

[NorCalGreg]

Some of the lower-rung tracks seem so easy to get the eventual winner--down to 2 contenders. Mountaineer seems that way, Finger Lakes, etc.

In the interest of scientific research....I have found my two contenders per race--for MNR this evening.

I haven't read Steve's Dutching Book (available free on the website)--so excuse my ignorance.

I'm just going to try putting a $4 bet on the lower odds horse, of the two...and a $2 bet on the higher odds. Got appx 5 minutes before 1st post--so let's see what happens.

1ST
ADMIRAL GRACE 5-2 $4
TIME ROCK 8-1

2ND
CRISIS AVERTED 6-1 $4
CELTIC GOLD 6-1

3RD
BLACK DIAMOND GIRL 3-1 $4
J Z'S DIVA 4-1

4TH
LINDY HOP 1-1 $4
MAMA'S FIRECRACKER 4-1

5TH
REQUEST A LAWYER 8/5 $4
JAQUE'S NUGGET 8-1

6TH
NO DOUGH 5/2 $4
FIERY NICE 7-2

7TH
RISENER 9/5 $4
GRAND LORD 5/2

8TH
MALIBU MOGUL 7/5 $4
MR DOUBLE STANDARD 3-1

9TH
AMUSE THE DIVA 3-1 $4
FREEZING RAIN 7-2

I know nothing about dutch-betting--so any comments, better ways, or just to tell me I'm doomed from the start.....any help at all is appreciated.

Thanks

-NCG

[PaceAdvantage]

If I may plug an advertiser, AmWager has some dutching functions built into their ADW platform...anyone into dutching might want to investigate them further.

https://www.amwager.com/how-to/bet-smarter/dutching

[MPRanger]

Technically what you are talking about doing is not dutching. It is simply
betting two horses to win.

Dutching is when you bet the horses booking percentage based on the odds
it's going off at. And they may not be the same in the end but you know
that.

2 to 1 bet $33
3 to 1 bet $25
4 to 1 bet $20

etc;

Assuming one of your picks wins:

The idea is that which ever horse wins you get approximately $100 back.

2 to 1 bet at $33 returns $66 + your $33 bet for a total of $99
3 to 1 bet at $25 returns $75 + your $25 bet for a total of $100

Subtract the money bet on the loser from the $100 return then subtract
the amount bet on the winner and that's your profit.

You can bet multiples of the 100% booking percentages so your bets could
be more or less than the amounts in the examples.

[ReplayRandall]

The idea is that which ever horse wins you get approximately $100 back.

2 to 1 bet at $33 returns $66 + your $33 bet for a total of $99
3 to 1 bet at $25 returns $75 + your $25 bet for a total of $100

You wagered $58 to win a $100, this is a bad play as max you can wager is $50 total, no matter the win % probable......Violate this rule and you're a long-term loser to the prop, at least by my figures which go back over 20 years....Ideal minimum is both horses at least being 3-1.

[MPRanger]

You wagered $58 to win a $100, this is a bad play as max you can wager is $50 total, no matter the win % probable......Violate this rule and you're a long-term loser to the prop, at least by my figures which go back over 20 years....Ideal minimum is both horses at least being 3-1.

No problem. You just double up on the next one if you lose. :cool:

Just kidding. I agree with you. I was simply answering his request for
comments on dutching. My point is that simply betting two horses to win is
not dutching. However, if both your horses are properly overlaid against
your own line it could be a +ev play.

[ReplayRandall]

No problem. You just double up on the next one if you lose. :cool:

Just kidding. I agree with you. I was simply answering his request for
comments on dutching. My point is that simply betting two horses to win is
not dutching. However, if both your horses are properly overlaid against
your own line it could be a +ev play.

Since you opened the door, thought I'd add a little something. It's all good....:ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

Dutching is accomplished very easily with a basic Dutch calculator.
The idea is to get the same return no matter which one wins.

Example: K1 = 2/1 & K2 = 3/1 – Note Profit Margin of 71%

LOW HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 3.0 BET PRF
$6 $8
$8 $6 $14 $10 71%
$24 $24

Example: K1 = 5/2 & K2 = 4/1 - Note Profit Margin of 106%

LOW HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 4.0 BET PRF
$7 $10
$10 $7 $17 $18 106%
$35 $35

[NorCalGreg]

There seems to be a lot of info the dutch bettor needs to know--before he can even begin:

1. Are you approaching the day/card as wagers in a series?

2. You want your profit appx the same--no matter which of the two wins. If neither wins--then what? I know you were joking, Ranger...but I see no way out but a form of "due column".

The responders haven't discussed the issue of a short losing streak--you're entire methods fall apart...unless I'm missing something.

Okay....granted my 2 horse betting isn't dutching in the biblical sense--but I am wagering two different horses based on an odds line ---the ML.

My plan called for betting $56.00...and returned $45.00---not good. I only had the winner in 6 of 9 sets of horses.

I did hit 4 TOP picks....but if I had taken the entire $6.00 per race---and just bet my top choices---I would have still only returned $51.60, a loss of -$2.40

The only way out of this dilemma I can see....is to increase my wagers according to my day's bankroll (if I'm playing as a series of bets). I need to have a higher strike rate---according to my odds line--or bet more according to the same odds line.

How would "dutching" help me? It's utterly dependent on odds and strike rate---which I haven't seen mentioned. Is there an ODDS-TO-STRIKE RATE-TO-WAGER AMOUNT listed somewhere?

Thanks for any responses

-NCG

[Bennie]

I see that 4 of your winners paid less than $4 and dutching with these payouts will lose even if you hit every race on the card. It is nearly impossible to play just based on ML odds, although some times you may get lucky, but in the long run I think it will be a losing venture. You could set minimum odds but small tracks with small pools there is no guarantees.

[NorCalGreg]

I see that 4 of your winners paid less than $4 and dutching with these payouts will lose even if you hit every race on the card. It is nearly impossible to play just based on ML odds, although some times you may get lucky, but in the long run I think it will be a losing venture. You could set minimum odds but small tracks with small pools there is no guarantees.

Okay now we're getting somewhere. Let's assume the ML is accurate enough...where's the odds cutoff? There has to be one, right?

And seems if you're good enough to know an overlay that's 3-1 currently--should be 5/2..where does the 2nd horse come in?

That one also must be an overlay? If you're that good at handicapping--especially in small increments...why even bother with this wagering gimmick?

[MPRanger]

Okay now we're getting somewhere. Let's assume the ML is accurate enough...where's the odds cutoff? There has to be one, right?

And seems if you're good enough to know an overlay that's 3-1 currently--should be 5/2..where does the 2nd horse come in?

That one also must be an overlay? If you're that good at handicapping--especially in small increments...why even bother with this wagering gimmick?


Since the other thread is now closed .... I'll make this fit here.

Us "Pizzola groupies" know that it is futile to try to make predictions based on the difference between 3-1 and 5-2 or any other. Our oddsline is a baseline to compare against the tote board or the BM version of a M/L. It's not a value stamp. It's not a prediction. It is a consistent judgmental measuring tool. It's effectiveness is measured over many races not a single race.

It's not about being " that good at handicapping ".

Handicapping is easy even if tedious unless you are using some software like BM or maybe yours which does all the grunt work. It's useful and necessary. But it's only effective up to a point. But is useless to expect to reliably predict the outcome of a horse race. Beyond the obvious which is right there in black and white for all the world to see, the order of finish is generally random. We are looking for horses who CAN win but ARE paying. Price is the deciding factor after all other considerations.

If you are trying to pick winners you are wasting your time.

Now ... this morning line business. It's mostly useless. The quality difference between morning line makers is vast. Even if they pick the obvious best horses and present them in a generally obvious way which isn't difficult, the odds they assign to them is just an opinion or a formula. You could have two different line makers pick the same order of favorites but predict different odds. Some line makers simply use templates. It's more who they think the public will pick in order than an evaluation of chances or prices. Nothing to hang your hat on.

"Pizzola groupies" indeed .... harumph

[oughtoh]

Since the other thread is now closed .... I'll make this fit here.

Us "Pizzola groupies" know that it is futile to try to make predictions based on the difference between 3-1 and 5-2 or any other. Our oddsline is a baseline to compare against the tote board or the BM version of a M/L. It's not a value stamp. It's not a prediction. It is a consistent judgmental measuring tool. It's effectiveness is measured over many races not a single race.

It's not about being " that good at handicapping ".

Handicapping is easy even if tedious unless you are using some software like BM or maybe yours which does all the grunt work. It's useful and necessary. But it's only effective up to a point. But is useless to expect to reliably predict the outcome of a horse race. Beyond the obvious which is right there in black and white for all the world to see, the order of finish is generally random. We are looking for horses who CAN win but ARE paying. Price is the deciding factor after all other considerations.

If you are trying to pick winners you are wasting your time.

Now ... this morning line business. It's mostly useless. The quality difference between morning line makers is vast. Even if they pick the obvious best horses and present them in a generally obvious way which isn't difficult, the odds they assign to them is just an opinion or a formula. You could have two different line makers pick the same order of favorites but predict different odds. Some line makers simply use templates. It's more who they think the public will pick in order than an evaluation of chances or prices. Nothing to hang your hat on.

"Pizzola groupies" indeed .... harumph

I totally agree with what you said about the morning line. This may sound stupid, I have seen some of Pizzolas things, but if you don't pick winners how do you win? Are you playing the exotics or playing more then one horse.

[NorCalGreg]

Not mentioning the word "value" and calling your oddsline a "judgemental measuring tool" ---then throw in the lecture on the ML---gives me the idea you're on some higher cosmic plane.

I'll drop out while you're ahead--I really just wanted to discuss dutch betting.

Have a good one

-NCG

[MPRanger]

[QUOTE=oughtoh;2179011]I totally agree with what you said about the morning line. This may sound stupid, I have seen some of Pizzolas things, but if you don't pick winners how do you win? Are you playing the exotics or playing more then one horse.[/QUOTE


If you want to pick winners. Find things you like in short priced horses.
Join the crowd. But it's - EV.

If you are trying to accumulate money, looking to make bets where
you have + EV, It's more than trying to pick winners.

Watch Michael Pizzola's KD rant. Never mind the race since it's over anyway.
He discusses the race in terms of valuecapping which is the answer to your
first question.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLWEFgsEOs4&feature=youtu.be

[MPRanger]

Not mentioning the word "value" and calling your oddsline a "judgemental measuring tool" ---then throw in the lecture on the ML---gives me the idea you're on some higher cosmic plane.

I'll drop out while you're ahead--I really just wanted to discuss dutch betting.

Have a good one

-NCG

A higher plane? Hmmmm ... I like that.
Could just be a gift for turning a phrase.:)

[oughtoh]

I already watched his KY Derby and Preakness videos. I understand that he tries to find value.

[MPRanger]

I already watched his KY Derby and Preakness videos. I understand that he tries to find value.


I'm not trying to talk you into anything. Just answering your question.
"tries to find value" kind of jumps to the end. How do you find value?
That's why I posted the rant as an example. The under card parts are
more illustrative. You simply won't find a better example than Michael
Pizzola himself showing you how to do it.

I'm not against raw ass gambling at the races for fun. I do it all the time.
But I'm aware of the difference between that and valuecapping.

Good luck.