CHURCHILL DOWNS - MON 5/29 LIVE

[Nitro]

I’m going to give Churchill Downs another try today. The overall card looks halfway decent.

Just so that there’s misunderstanding, I post my best selections for each race in order of preference at about 4 minutes to post. They're all based on a real time tote analysis.
I’m not posting bets!

My top 2 selections are my Keys. They can be played individually or Dutched if the value is there. I will also use them as Keys in Exactas, Tri’s and Supers. Keying entries in exotics means that they have to at least be in the money with the other picks. I may not even be playing a race if it doesn’t offer any value.
Contrary to the trend around here I’ll even post my results; Win or Lose

I know it might be difficult for some to understand, but the winning results I post are the potential returns for those types of bets had they been made. I don’t make every bet and I certainly don’t play every race.

Good luck if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

R#4 – 4-1 W/ 6-3-7 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#4 – 4-1 W/ 6-3-7 @ 4mins to post

Results:

R # 4 = 1-6-2-4 – WIN – EX

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $4.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 1-6 - $26.80

[Nitro]

R#5 – 4-6 W/ 3-2 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#5 – 4-6 W/ 3-2 @ 4mins to post

Results:

R # 5 = 3-2-6-4 – TRI BX

$2.00 TRIFECTA – 3-2-6 - $42.00

[Nitro]

R#6 – 2-7 W/ 4-6 @ 3mins to post

[Nitro]

R#6 – 2-7 W/ 4-6 @ 3mins to post

Results:

R # 6 = 2-7-5-6 – WIN – EX Cold

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $4.80
$2.00 EXACTA – 2-7 - $12.20

[Nitro]

R#7 – 5-8 W/ 4-2-9 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#7 – 5-8 W/ 4-2-9 @ 4mins to post

Results:

R # 7 = 2-10-3-4 – Nothing in that one - Both keys failed to get a piece of the money

[Nitro]

R#8 – 2-1 W/ 9-8-11 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#8 – 2-1 W/ 9-8-11 @ 4mins to post

Results: All of that one!

R # 8 = 2-11-1-9 – WIN – EX – TRI – SUPER BX

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $5.00
$2.00 EXACTA – 2-11 - $38.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 2-11-1 - $130.40
$2.00 SUPER – 2-11-1-9 - $525.40

[Nitro]

R#9 – 4-1 W/ 2-6 @ 5mins to post

[Nitro]

R#9 – 4-1 W/ 2-6 @ 5mins to post

Results:

R # 9 = 4-1-2-3 – WIN – EX – TRI Cold

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $3.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 2-11 - $22.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 2-11-1 - $52.20

[Nitro]

R#10 – 6-1 W/ 4-2-7 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#10 – 6-1 W/ 4-2-7 @ 4mins to post

Results:

R # 10 = 7-6-4-11 – EX – TRI BX - Winner took all the late action.

$2.00 EXACTA – 7-6 - $23.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 7-6-4 - $82.60

[Nitro]

R#11 – 8-2 W/ 3-9-7 @ 4mins to post

[Nitro]

R#11 – 8-2 W/ 3-9-7 @ 4mins to post

Results: All of that one!

R # 11 = 8-7-2-9-4 – WIN – EX – TRI – SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 8 - $4.00
$2.00 EXACTA – 8-7 - $130.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 8-7-2 - $480.00
$2.00 SUPER – 8-7-2-9 - $1,499.60

[Nitro]

Results for 8 Races posted @ Churchill Downs :

(5) Key Winners ( 3 others in the mix)
(6) Exactas
(5) Triples
(2) Supers

Tote analysis provided some nice results from today’s card !

[Dahoss9698]

Results for 8 Races posted @ Churchill Downs :

(5) Key Winners ( 3 others in the mix)
(6) Exactas
(5) Triples
(2) Supers

Tote analysis provided some nice results from today’s card !

So you pick 2 key horses and 2-3 horses to use underneath and if it comes in, in any order you win?

I'd like to see the ROI on these "bets" yesterday

[VigorsTheGrey]

So you pick 2 key horses and 2-3 horses to use underneath and if it comes in, in any order you win?

I'd like to see the ROI on these "bets" yesterday

The total amount for these $2 wagers combined, I think, is $460 per race...BUT Nitro has explained on many occasions: That his selections are not bets and the results posted do not necessarily mean that he won money or even bet them...

[Dahoss9698]

The total amount for these $2 wagers combined, I think, is $460 per race...BUT Nitro has explained on many occasions: That his selections are not bets and the results posted do not necessarily mean that he won money or even bet them...

So I guess the question begs, whats the point of it all? Are we supposed to guess which one he plays? Or does he only play the ones that hit?

I guess I expect more from someone who talks a big game like he does.

[VigorsTheGrey]

So I guess the question begs, whats the point of it all? Are we supposed to guess which one he plays? Or does he only play the ones that hit?

I guess I expect more from someone who talks a big game like he does.

In my opinion, the point is to view his selections and consider them to be an opportunity to wager these combos any way that YOU feel comfortable with, or not at all....but I see your point, twas my point at one time as well, I'm just glad he posts them, as many times they hit...but you are right, the roi isn't there at $460 a race....but again, that is not what he is doing or suggesting that other do...but I admit, it is a mixed message, in my opinion..... But one can never be sure when the big ones will hit, so....

[Nitro]

So I guess the question begs, whats the point of it all? Are we supposed to guess which one he plays? Or does he only play the ones that hit?

I guess I expect more from someone who talks a big game like he does.

Hey DeHoss you’ve been here for how long? What 10 years!
And the REAL question begs: Do you know how to READ?
Why not try reading my opening post? Hopefully its content is not over your head.
Besides, the tast time I looked this was Selection Forum where we simply share information. Apparently, for some reason you and a few others seem to think that this is a Betting forum.

I guarantee that if I were to post my actual bets you’d have a hard time believing those results as well.

Funny thing is that those like you seem to have nothing better to share than continuous negativity and skepticism about those who support this site with some encouraging information. Bottom line is that those who attempt to downplay the success of others are just part of that same old crowd that just doesn’t get it. (And probably never will!)

[Nitro]

In my opinion, the point is to view his selections and consider them to be an opportunity to wager these combos any way that YOU feel comfortable with, or not at all....but I see your point, twas my point at one time as well, I'm just glad he posts them, as many times they hit...but you are right, the roi isn't there at $460 a race....but again, that is not what he is doing or suggesting that other do...but I admit, it is a mixed message, in my opinion..... But one can never be sure when the big ones will hit, so....

Vigors I appreciate you chiming in, but there's no need to speak on my behalf. I could really care less about how "comfortable" anyone feels about my posted selections and their Potential results. If people aren't smart enough to take advantage of pertinent information its their loss. I'm only sharing information: Take it or Leave it.

I would imagine those with even the slightest bit of creative wagering abilities (and even with limited bankrolls) could figure how to best make use of posted selections. Anyone who thinks that I'm making every possible bet in each race is a fool!

[VigorsTheGrey]

Vigors I appreciate you chiming in, but there's no need to speak on my behalf. I could really care less about how "comfortable" anyone feels about my posted selections and their Potential results. If people aren't smart enough to take advantage of pertinent information its their loss. I'm only sharing information: Take it or Leave it.

I would imagine those with even the slightest bit of creative wagering abilities (and even with limited bankrolls) could figure how to best make use of posted selections. Anyone who thinks that I'm making every possible bet in each race is a fool!

I recognize the merit of what you post and I use your selections selectively after vetting them under my own regime...which is what I think most bettors ought to do...

I have learned over the years not to follow the selections of others blindly, even though the short term might show dramatic profits...

One day I am on fire with my own selections, the next day not so well....another day dismal....another rather average...but the deeper I get into the game, the more knowledge I acquire on both the wagering aspects AND the handicapping aspects, which includes TOTE analysis, and post parade viewing, and replay watching...

And from the information from the insiders, BRIS and DRF, etc, and what can be gleaned from any number of multiple sources, not just the TOTE...more is better, IMO, in this game....not the either/ or but the BOTH/ AND approach....

[Dahoss9698]

Hey DeHoss you’ve been here for how long? What 10 years!
And the REAL question begs: Do you know how to READ?
Why not try reading my opening post? Hopefully its content is not over your head.
Besides, the tast time I looked this was Selection Forum where we simply share information. Apparently, for some reason you and a few others seem to think that this is a Betting forum.

I guarantee that if I were to post my actual bets you’d have a hard time believing those results as well.

Funny thing is that those like you seem to have nothing better to share than continuous negativity and skepticism about those who support this site with some encouraging information. Bottom line is that those who attempt to downplay the success of others are just part of that same old crowd that just doesn’t get it. (And probably never will!)

Nice deflection. I read just fine. I also detect bullshit better than most and your posts stink with bullshit. I just figured with all that big talk you'd offer more than 5 horses a race and then claims of lots of success.

You're the typical Internet blowhard. You're a big time winner but you're not confident enough in your ability as a horseplayer to have an actual opinion. So you hedge everything. Your opening post is a gigantic hedge.

It's okay...I just wanted to know what I was dealing with when I engage you. Let me know when you grow a pair.

[Nitro]

Nice deflection. I read just fine. I also detect bullshit better than most and your posts stink with bullshit. I just figured with all that big talk you'd offer more than 5 horses a race and then claims of lots of success.

You're the typical Internet blowhard. You're a big time winner but you're not confident enough in your ability as a horseplayer to have an actual opinion. So you hedge everything. Your opening post is a gigantic hedge.

It's okay...I just wanted to know what I was dealing with when I engage you. Let me know when you grow a pair.
Well what do know we have a psychoanalyst in our midst! Or perhaps even a psychic! Someone who claims he can interpret who you are from what you post in a basic selection forum. What a Joke!

Those talents of yours might be better served trying to understand whatever data you use make selections. Unfortunately, if it’s anything like the deductions you made here you certainly need help!

The ONLY accurate comment that you’ve made is about “hedging”. Yes, its one of my favorite betting techniques, because unlike yourself I can’t predict the future. But I can use common sense to determine when my selections offer some value.

Just don’t hold your breath waiting for any further dialog from me. Your pretentious attitude is a clear demonstration of just how little you know about me and perhaps many of other things about this game (particularly betting). As far as I’m concerned, only an arrogant fool takes an opinionated stand in this game with limited selections when there so many other ways to make a profit.

But let me not digress, because I’m sure since you know so much about me, you’ll be able tell everyone about how your reckless (big balls) approach has led you to fame and fortune.

[Dahoss9698]

Well what do know we have a psychoanalyst in our midst! Or perhaps even a psychic! Someone who claims he can interpret who you are from what you post in a basic selection forum. What a Joke!

Those talents of yours might be better served trying to understand whatever data you use make selections. Unfortunately, if it’s anything like the deductions you made here you certainly need help!

The ONLY accurate comment that you’ve made is about “hedging”. Yes, its one of my favorite betting techniques, because unlike yourself I can’t predict the future. But I can use common sense to determine when my selections offer some value.

Just don’t hold your breath waiting for any further dialog from me. Your pretentious attitude is a clear demonstration of just how little you know about me and perhaps many of other things about this game (particularly betting). As far as I’m concerned, only an arrogant fool takes an opinionated stand in this game with limited selections when there so many other ways to make a profit.

But let me not digress, because I’m sure since you know so much about me, you’ll be able tell everyone about how your reckless (big balls) approach has led you to fame and fortune.

I'm pretentious? :lol::lol::lol:

Pot meet kettle. Notice you keep deflecting from the point. Wonder why.

I know very little about you other than you like to talk a big game, you love Hong Kong racing and you can dish it out but have a tantrum anytime someone serves it back to you.

I just get a kick out of people that talk a big game but aren't confident enough to actually have an opinion. So they post 5 horses and then boast after the fact.

Carry on with all of your "winning" :lol::lol::lol:

[soonboomer]

There is no way to make money betting your picks. Lay out any formula you like (in advance), and keep track. Exacta box all 5 (or 6) listed horses.....Tri box all of them.......Key the top 2 over the other 3 (or 4).....Key the top 2 over and under the rest......pick any one scenario.....would be interesting.

[VigorsTheGrey]

There is no way to make money betting your picks. Lay out any formula you like (in advance), and keep track. Exacta box all 5 (or 6) listed horses.....Tri box all of them.......Key the top 2 over the other 3 (or 4).....Key the top 2 over and under the rest......pick any one scenario.....would be interesting.
Regime Format
$2 K1-K2 W/ A-B-C

WIN BETS
$2 K1 Win= $2
$2 K2 Win =$2

EXACTA BETS
$2 K1/ K2-A-B-C = $8
$2 K2-A-B-C/ K1 = $8

$2 K2/ K1-A-B-C = $8
$2 K1-A-B-C/ K2 = $8

TRIFECTA BETS
$2 K1/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C = $24
$2 K2-A-B-C/ K1/ K2-A-B-C = $24
$2 K2 A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C/ K1 = $24

$2 K2/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C = $24
$2 K1-A-B-C/ K2/ K1-A-B-C = $24
$2 K1 A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C/ K2 = $24

SUPERFECTA BETS

$2 K1/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C = $48
$2 K2-A-B-C/ K1/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C = $48
$2 K2 A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C/ K1/ K2-A-B-C = $48

$2 K2/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C = $48
$2 K1-A-B-C/ K2/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C = $48
$2 K1 A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C/ K2/ K1-A-B-C = $48


Win Bets= $4
Exacta Bets= $32
Trifecta Bets= $144
Superfecta Bets= $288
--------------------------
Total Wager Cost= $468
$2 K1-K2/A-B-C Regime

[VigorsTheGrey]

K1-K2 W/ A-B-C

WIN BETS
$2 K1 Win= $2
$2 K2 Win =$2

EXACTA BETS
$1 K1/ K2-A-B-C = $4
$1 K2-A-B-C/ K1 = $4

$1 K2/ K1-A-B-C = $4
$1 K1-A-B-C/ K2 = $4

TRIFECTA BETS
$.50 K1/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C = $6
$.50 K2-A-B-C/ K1/ K2-A-B-C = $6
$.50 K2 A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C/ K1 = $6

$.50 K2/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C = $6
$.50 K1-A-B-C/ K2/ K1-A-B-C = $6
$.50 K1 A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C/ K2 = $6

SUPERFECTA BETS
$.10 K1/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C = $2.40
$.10 K2-A-B-C/ K1/ K2-A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C = $2.40
$.10 K2 A-B-C/ K2-A-B-C/ K1/ K2-A-B-C = $2.40

$.10 K2/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C = $2.40
$.10 K1-A-B-C/ K2/ K1-A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C = $2.40
$.10 K1 A-B-C/ K1-A-B-C/ K2/ K1-A-B-C = $2.40

Win Bets= $4
Exacta Bets= $16
Trifecta Bets= $32
Superfecta Bets= $14.40
--------------------------
Total Wagers Cost= $66.40

[Dahoss9698]

Vigors, on a board full of terrible posters you stand out. Wear that proudly.

[Nitro]

In my opinion, the point is to view his selections and consider them to be an opportunity to wager these combos any way that YOU feel comfortable with, or not at all....but I see your point, twas my point at one time as well, I'm just glad he posts them, as many times they hit...but you are right, the roi isn't there at $460 a race....but again, that is not what he is doing or suggesting that other do...but I admit, it is a mixed message, in my opinion..... But one can never be sure when the big ones will hit, so....
Well I see you’ve once again offered the basic betting breakdown of using 2 Key selections with a few others. Something I’ve also posted in the past, but you know how it goes around here: People read and absorb what they want, and later complain when they can’t comprehend the sometimes very obvious scenarios. It certainly doesn’t take a genius or much creativity for even a novice bettor to figure out how to use 2 Key picks.

There are a couple of points that are missing from your betting outline that some might find useful. While anyone could certainly play either of the Keys to Win. I would suggest that if both are to be played that a Dutch Win bet be used. This means that if the odds are different on each Key that different amounts would have to be placed on each one in order to get the same return no matter which one wins.

Example: K1 = 2/1 & K2 = 3/1 – Note Profit Margin of 71%

LOW HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 3.0 BET PRF
$6 $8
$8 $6 $14 $10 71%
$24 $24

Example: K1 = 5/2 & K2 = 4/1 - Note Profit Margin of 106%

LOW HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 4.0 BET PRF
$7 $10
$10 $7 $17 $18 106%
$35 $35


Also, you apparently question when the “big” ones will hit. Well, the obvious thing to do first of all (if interested in playing any Vertical exotic) is to evaluate the overall current odds of all the chosen selections together. Then it just becomes a matter of deciding if the bet size required will produce the desired profit. If the Valued return is there it just might be the right time to send it in.

I’m not sure why you continue to raise the issue of an overall R.O.I. in combination with making every possible bet in your outline for every race. I mean, I think anyone one with common sense would recognize that entire scenario is not only unpractical but ridiculous. But it sure is nice way of trying to diminish the overall value of what’s being presented as simply preferred selections to be played at the discretion of anyone interested in using them.

[Dahoss9698]

There's no value in what you're presenting Nitro. That's what you don't get.