Value Races & Horses 5/29/17

[PaceAdvantage]

PRX Race 2 1:22 (9)
:8: 2/1
:4: 4/1
:9: 14/1

CD Race 3 1:43 (5)
:5: 3/1
:2: 4/1
:6: 7/1

PRX Race 4 2:16 (7)
:12: 8/5
:9: 6/1
:3: 8/1

[PaceAdvantage]

BTP Race 5 3:24 (10)
:2: 2/1
:10: 7/2
:7: 12/1

[PaceAdvantage]

CD Race 7 3:47 (9)
:5: 5/2
:9: 7/2
:3: 14/1

[PaceAdvantage]

LAD Race 1 4:15 (10)
:4: 9/5
:8: 4/1

[PaceAdvantage]

TDN Race 7 4:40 (9)
:8: 5/2
:6: 9/2
:1: 11/1
:4: 13/1

FL Race 9 4:46 (7)
:1: 3/1
:5: 9/2
:7: 9/1
:4: 10/1

BTP Race 8 4:57 (9)
:6: 4/1
:2: 9/2
:1: 6/1
:3: 12/1

[PaceAdvantage]

Late Scratch redo:

TDN Race 7 4:40 (8)
:8: 2/1
:6: 4/1
:4: 9/1

[PaceAdvantage]

RUI Race 6 5:10 (9)
:1: 2/1
:6: 6/1
:9: 6/1
:3: 13/1

TDN Race 8 5:10 (10)
:2: 7/2
:7: 4/1
:4: 5/1
:3: 9/1

PRM Race 8 5:12 (9)
:6: 2/1
:10: 6/1
:2: 14/1

[PaceAdvantage]

BTP Race 9 5:28 (11)
:5: 3/1
:1: 7/2
:2: 10/1

GP Race 9 5:34 (10)
:8: 2/1
:10: 5/2

PRM Race 9 5:39 (9)
:4: 3/1
:2: 3/1
:7: 10/1
:3: 14/1

AP Race 7 5:40 (11)
:9: 2/1
:1: 7/2

[PaceAdvantage]

Redo late scratch:

BTP Race 9 5:28 (10)
:5: 7/2
:1: 7/2
:2: 10/1
:9: 13/1
:10: 15/1

[PaceAdvantage]

Rest for today...having another horrible day so far...good thing this is going to be my last day posting picks for a while...:lol:

RUI Race 8 6:02 (9)
:10: 5/2
:7: 3/1
:2: 9/1

LAD Race 5 6:03 (10)
:10: 3/1
:5: 5/1
:2: 7/1
:8: 8/1

LS Race 6 6:07 (9)
:5: 5/2
:9: 9/2
:6: 8/1

AP Race 8 6:12 (9)
:8: 5/2
:2: 6/1
:4: 15/1

GP Race 11 6:38 (12)
:7: 3/1
:1: 3/1
:5: 12/1
:10: 15/1

LS Race 7 6:39 (10)
:7: 5/2
:9: 4/1
:5: 7/1

EMD Race 6 7:19 (9)
:7: 3/1
:8: 4/1
:1: 9/1
:6: 11/1

[lamboguy]

we should have been following the Mountainman, he cold conked a $111 daily double at the mountain.

he happens to be a very unique handicapper, he is able to anticipate changes in horses better than anyone i have ever seen.

[PaceAdvantage]

Can't believe I actually had a worse day today than yesterday...

EMD Race 6 was void due to late scratch.

Top pick went 0 for 17 and returned $0

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (54 Days):

108 for 528 | $1056 Wagered | $1093.80 Returned | $1.04 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 0 for 39 and returned $0

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (54 Days):

173 for 1261 | $2522 Wagered | $2120.80 returned | $0.84 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

This public experiment now ends on a massive down note...throwing a lot into question. I've lost 33 races in a row with the top choice overlay...that's a bit more than is to be expected on most losing streaks with a 20% strike rate...not the way I wanted this to end, but end it must.

[ReplayRandall]

Can't believe I actually had a worse day today than yesterday...

EMD Race 6 was void due to late scratch.

Top pick went 0 for 17 and returned $0

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (54 Days):

108 for 528 | $1056 Wagered | $1093.80 Returned | $1.04 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 0 for 39 and returned $0

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (54 Days):

173 for 1261 | $2522 Wagered | $2120.80 returned | $0.84 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

This public experiment now ends on a massive down note...throwing a lot into question. I've lost 33 races in a row with the top choice overlay...that's a bit more than is to be expected on most losing streaks with a 20% strike rate...not the way I wanted this to end, but end it must.
First off, I congratulate you on a fine showing, using a simplified method for betting your top pick overlays. In this day and age, I doubt that few have accomplished a +ROI over 500 plays using such a basic approach.

Now, as far as the "other" plays, this should convince anyone how difficult it is to make a profit betting only for overlay value on anything other than your own best play in a race. The solution of course is to pass, pass, pass when the value's not there in the win or exacta pools, on your specific play in the race. Does it get boring? Sure it does, but that's part of the "normalcy" of the game when playing for profit and not just for fun.

As far as your 33 race losing streak, you know that this is normal as you've stated, and you're far away from setting any kind of losing streak record of futility, in comparison to my own negative streaks. It looks to me like you're close to having something of real value long-term, with better record keeping and analyzation of odds layering just for starters, you will improve on what foundation you've already laid.....The rest is up to you, good luck.

[jay68802]

Great job. With the streak you are on, i would be more than willing to start at $2 and double the bet on your next 10 selections. i figure the streak will end very soon.