Major tracks vs. minor ones

[andicap]

I've been handicapping the minor nighttime tracks a lot lately and have found some differences in handicapping them and the major ones.
The biggest one I have found is that except for the super trainers at these places, my HTR trainer rating is almost irrelevant.
In NY, a rating of under 150 is practically a throwout, but at MNR and CT and PENN these horses win all the time.
I presume it's because there are so few solid trainers -- like there are on the major circuits -- that the poorer and mediocre ones are not as disadvantaged.

I now disregard trainers at these tracks, except for the ones with exceptionally high ratings who will overperform their overall handicapping ratings (pace, speed, etc.)

And workouts are not as meaningful it seems to me because the horses race their way into shape more.


Wondering what other factors should be treated differently at these tracks.

[sq764]

Obviously being concious of pool sizes versus your bet size..

I love the small tracks for win bet overlays, as you see favorites pounded, which leads to 7/1 shots who end up 12/1 because of the small pool size..

On the flip side, I have hit a 22/1 over 9/1 exacta that paid $168 at Charlestown.. At Del Mar or Toga, that pays in the $400 range..

[hurrikane]

interesting andi,

the trainer rating #1 still shows a positive ROI after 2 yrs.

but I agree..trainers are not much. You can however thow out many 1 fer 99 trainers without blinking an eye. At a lot of these tracks that's half the field.

I also find the exotics pools not very good and usually play win only.....

[CryingForTheHorses]

NOT SO FAST GUYS to throw out these SMALL TIME TRAINERS.Just becaus they dont have TOP class horses doesnt mean they dont know horses. These tracks are full of cripples and it takes a lot more knowledge and finess to get these animals to the races, ITS VERY easy to train a horse with NO problems. These horses have tons of them and its not easy to get them running. YES ANDICAP they dont breeze as often as a good horse, SOME never breeze again after they start to race.
The great thing about these tracks is that they have conditions for the horse like nw in 6 months etc.If see a horse that is runnng every 9 to 14 days,You know he may be sound, If you see a horse with breaks in his form then running and hitting the board, He may be a little on the gimpy side, BUT has heart.

[schweitz]

I play mostly "small time tracks" and one of the things that works for me is knowing your trainers REALLY well---requires a lot of work tracking trainer moves.

[andicap]

Originally posted by McSchell_Racing
NOT SO FAST GUYS to throw out these SMALL TIME TRAINERS.Just becaus they dont have TOP class horses doesnt mean they dont know horses. These tracks are full of cripples and it takes a lot more knowledge and finess to get these animals to the races, ITS VERY easy to train a horse with NO problems. These horses have tons of them and its not easy to get them running. YES ANDICAP they dont breeze as often as a good horse, SOME never breeze again after they start to race.
The great thing about these tracks is that they have conditions for the horse like nw in 6 months etc.If see a horse that is runnng every 9 to 14 days,You know he may be sound, If you see a horse with breaks in his form then running and hitting the board, He may be a little on the gimpy side, BUT has heart.

Tom,
my main point was that you can't throw out trainers on these circuits with poor ratings, that they win all the time. While on the major circuits, they hardly win at all (except to kill your pik-3).

[CryingForTheHorses]

Originally posted by schweitz
I play mostly "small time tracks" and one of the things that works for me is knowing your trainers REALLY well---requires a lot of work tracking trainer moves.
You are so right!
You need to know what trainers LOOK after their horses.SMALL stables I think are the best,They only have so many bullets and they make them count.I also feel trainers with big claiming barns are more fun to claim from..Lots of horses need 1 on 1 care and they really dont get that at "cheap" tracks.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Originally posted by andicap
Tom,
my main point was that you can't throw out trainers on these circuits with poor ratings, that they win all the time. While on the major circuits, they hardly win at all (except to kill your pik-3).

ANDICAP you are also right.
These guy that are small can win the races but get dusted at a big track.Are they bringing their horse from their track to the big track?.. CLASS has a lot to do with it and also "conditions' help also.LOT of big tracks really dont have them..sometimes you are forced to run wide openrather then in a nw3 lifetime. Placement has lots to do with winning races..IM sure ou know that.

[hurrikane]

BullS**T!!!

same as the big ones...80/20 rule still applies.

thing is the top 20 don't always look so pretty.

bottom line...you still have to do your work.

[Macdiarmadillo]

And if you do the work, you're way ahead because it is so much work. Most people won't do it. Just got beat at Santa Rosa by one I'd forgotten about, where the trainer shows one (crummy) 4f work before the race and uses his go-to jockey.

[andicap]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
BullS**T!!!

same as the big ones...80/20 rule still applies.

thing is the top 20 don't always look so pretty.

bottom line...you still have to do your work.

Bulls**T yourself.
Here is a typical day.

8/1 at CT, taking HTR trainer ratings. two horses win with a 103, another with a 064, and another with a 050.

(In HTR, 400 is considered a "super trainer, and anything under 150 is usually considered a poor trainer).

8/1 at MNR, a 120 and a 199 won, not quite as bad.

8/1 at Saratoga, a 160 was the lowest.
8/2 at Saratoga, 160 was the lowest. Oh yes it was the same trainer, John Hertler, who I presume would be rated higher after his win the previous day.

8/3 at MNR a 190, 140 and 162 won.

As I said, the top trainers do win more than their fair share at these tracks, but the ones with ratings below 200 win much more than at the major tracks.

My theory: There are just a lot more trainers in each race with lower ratings. Average or median HTR trainer ratings at the major tracks in each race are much higher than at the minor ones.

The problem of course with the ratings is they don't prove the trainers are poor. Look at Hertler,he trained Seattle Slew. Could be a decent conditioner who isn't getting the stock. Of course if you're betting you don't care why he isn't winning, just that he isn't.

[hurrikane]

andi,

perhaps that was a bit strong. I wasn't saying the quality of the trainers were just as good. That would be foolish.

I was just pointing out that you can still apply the 80/20 rule. It's just that the 20 are starting at 120 and above. At a top track a 120 is in the bottom rung and is almost an automatic throwout.

You seldom see a 400 trn at a minor track. Well, lately you do with Capuano, Lake and other shipping to CT and MNR for slot money. They are usually bet way down and win 40-50% of the races they run.

But the races they are not in the top trainer is maybe a 280. I'd have to check my db but I'd be will to bet the top local trainer at CT (Runco?) is probably a 250.

That was my point. still 80/20. Just the top 20 would'nt make it to the bottom 80 of a top track.

[hurrikane]

andi,

we're really saying the same thing with one exception.

You say ignore the trainer. That was what the BS was for.

You can't always use the HTR number to get the info you want but the trn at these tracks are maybe more important because they have to little to work with. These horses have a short window of opportunity and if they don' t win with them they may not be ready to run a good race for anouther 6 months.

[hurrikane]

On the same topic andi,

the same day you posted...8-1.

MNR #1 rated trainer

4/10 bet 20.00 won 46.00 40% wins 2.3 ROI

CT #1 Rated Trn

12 races
3 wins
2 place
2 show

bet 24.00 to win
pay 37.00 25% 1.54

[46zilzal]

When trainers start running that's when you begin handicapping them

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by 46zilzal
When trainers start running that's when you begin handicapping them

True, Trainers don't run, but they do pick the spots for the horses, and choose when to run them.

What is this HTR trainer rating?

Fleww

[andicap]

In HTR software. Not exactly sure what Ken Massa bases it on, but it gives an overall rating to each trainer. (and jockey).

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by 46zilzal
When trainers start running that's when you begin handicapping them

IMHO if you ignore entering the trainer into the equation you're going to go home early most days

[alysheba88]

The trainer is more important at the smaller tracks then the bigger ones

[hurrikane]

Brian,
the HTR number is like a batting avg. taking into account the jockey, type of race, odds and other things and rates the trainer based on his past performance.

>400 are the supertrainers. However, I have see trainers in one ract with over 400 rating and the same trainer under 400 in a different race.

[Macdiarmadillo]

andicap wrote:
Wondering what other factors should be treated differently at these tracks.

Short layoffs seem to mean more physical problems with horses at the small tracks.

The meets tend to be shorter at smaller tracks, so you'll have to learn the whole circuit, more than likely.

There are big differences in the types of conditioned claiming races (e.g., CL2000 but NW2L, NW2 since Christmas, NW$500Y) which are the staple of small tracks.

The lower you go down the scale of podunk tracks, the more likely you'll run across a winner with little or no record, having run previously at unregistered tracks. Happened with the Quarter horses often enough when there was no parimutuel racing in Texas.

[46zilzal]

Since I forgot about trainers my win percentage has gone skyward by a mile

[46zilzal]

Keeping all teh trainer records wastes the time I can spend looking for more betting opportunities. Even the best are rarely above 25%, so once you note competence (at least 10%), you are wasting your time keeping more and more records rather than expanding your hancdiapping base. Looking at 6 or more cards per day, I wouldn't know where to begin nor need to any longer. Look a the horses only

[46zilzal]

KISS- Keep It Simple Stupid is the motto that was one of the greater epiphanies I ever experienced...Once I limited the factors to FEWER rather than MORE (trainers, Jock, PP, and all that peripheral stuff that is irrelevent)....win percentage almost tripled.....and continues to increase

Go ahead...to me it is a monumental WASTE OF TIME

[schweitz]

Originally posted by 46zilzal
Keeping all teh trainer records wastes the time I can spend looking for more betting opportunities. Even the best are rarely above 25%, so once you note competence (at least 10%), you are wasting your time keeping more and more records rather than expanding your hancdiapping base. Looking at 6 or more cards per day, I wouldn't know where to begin nor need to any longer. Look a the horses only

Gotta disagree ---but then I don't attempt to play six tracks a day---heck, I'm lucky sometimes to get six prime wagers a week---everybody does it different--doesn't make any particular way THE way.