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View Full Version : Stable Betting--a thing of the past?


NorCalGreg
05-25-2017, 01:38 AM
Someone...I don't remember who--recently made a statement here that --since fields are smaLL and purses have gotten larger--that stable betting is largely a thing of the past. Most all races are on the "up and up".

I got a good chuckle out of that comment. I happened to spot a horse @ EVD...a track where the wagering doesn't seem all that sophisticated....maybe the sharpies don't bother much with EVD.

This horse-- 6th race GOOD GOSH GENE 15-1 ML---showed NOTHING in his last 5 races to indicate today was the day. Sometimes I get lucky and spot these--I'm no sharper than the next guy. I am a student of running lines---and could see GENE'S past running lines had an unnatural look.

I don't believe this horse had even beaten half the field last-5. His lowest odds were 18-1...highest was 85-1.

GENE won his race today---and paid a whopping 8 bucks. If you go over this horse with a fine tooth comb--he had good pace and speed numbers--against an incredibly weak field.

Still...it's blatantly obvious this was "inside" wagering. The betting public does not look at running lines...especially the EVD crowd.

I was hoping for a $20.00+ payoff :mad: . Maybe I'm whining a little bit here--but note that inside betting is alive and well--and always will be.
-NCG

*btw.....this horse paid more to show than place

https://image.ibb.co/isCFAv/Gene.png

thaskalos
05-25-2017, 05:00 AM
I've been using HDW's PsPos reports for about 4 months now. Along with providing speed and pace figures in these reports, Jim Cramer also gives his prediction of the race's outcome...based on his projection of what final figure each horse in the race will ultimately run. In this race...Cramer's predicted order of finish was :5:,:1:,:2:...with the :5: listed less than half a length ahead of the :1: at the finish. The race's official finish was :1:,:2:,:5:.

Consequently...it's very possible that the betting action was driven by some sophisticated speed and pace figures...instead of by stable-betting.

PS...

I didn't bet this race myself, but I follow Cramer's predictions just for curiosity"s sake...and his prognosticating skills often astound me. On a few occasions...I've seen him select signer trifectas in perfect order.

theotherside
05-25-2017, 05:48 AM
Where on the summary sheets is Jims prediction of the race's outcome?

thaskalos
05-25-2017, 06:06 AM
Where on the summary sheets is Jims prediction of the race's outcome?

Under the race conditions, there are several boxes containing different horseracing data...and one of the boxes is titled "Speed Ratings Summary". The projected speed figure and the predicted finish of each horse are listed in the far-right of that box.

lamboguy
05-25-2017, 06:16 AM
other than first time starters and layoff horses the biggest form of inside money comes from vets that have just tapped a horse.

Whosonfirst
05-25-2017, 08:17 AM
Someone...I don't remember who--recently made a statement here that --since fields are smaLL and purses have gotten larger--that stable betting is largely a thing of the past. Most all races are on the "up and up".

I got a good chuckle out of that comment. I happened to spot a horse @ EVD...a track where the wagering doesn't seem all that sophisticated....maybe the sharpies don't bother much with EVD.

This horse-- 6th race GOOD GOSH GENE 15-1 ML---showed NOTHING in his last 5 races to indicate today was the day. Sometimes I get lucky and spot these--I'm no sharper than the next guy. I am a student of running lines---and could see GENE'S past running lines had an unnatural look.

I don't believe this horse had even beaten half the field last-5. His lowest odds were 18-1...highest was 85-1.

GENE won his race today---and paid a whopping 8 bucks. If you go over this horse with a fine tooth comb--he had good pace and speed numbers--against an incredibly weak field.

Still...it's blatantly obvious this was "inside" wagering. The betting public does not look at running lines...especially the EVD crowd.

I was hoping for a $20.00+ payoff :mad: . Maybe I'm whining a little bit here--but note that inside betting is alive and well--and always will be.
-NCG

*btw.....this horse paid more to show than place

https://image.ibb.co/isCFAv/Gene.png
Greg, Not disagreeing with your assessment on insiders, but this horse also shows a 3X2, and almost a 3X3 improvement pattern that I believe you touted on here several months back. I've hit a few longshots using that pattern to your credit.

overthehill
05-25-2017, 09:36 AM
im admittedly redboarding. and i can see why you would be dissappointed at the price. however when i look at the form I see a stretch out from the rail , a drop in class from most of its previous efforts and a very positive jockey change on paper looked like a candidate to wire the field from the inside post.
and i have seen stretch outs like this get lots of play.

Exotic1
05-25-2017, 09:43 AM
......Consequently...it's very possible that the betting action was driven by some sophisticated speed and pace figures...instead of by stable-betting .......




Just checked. BRIS Prime Power ranking: #1, #2, #7, #5.


Morning Line was way off, that's all.

biggestal99
05-25-2017, 10:07 AM
GENE won his race today---and paid a whopping 8 bucks. If you go over this horse with a fine tooth comb--he had good pace and speed numbers--against an incredibly weak field.


https://image.ibb.co/isCFAv/Gene.png

Greg--GGG had the highest last out speed rating, also #1 Prime.
ML was way too high. sprint to route trainer number was good.

Allan

jimmyb
05-25-2017, 10:21 AM
Not trying to redboard, but the 1 had the highest speed/pace figure by a wide margin.

Whosonfirst
05-25-2017, 10:23 AM
Just checked. BRIS Prime Power ranking: #1, #2, #7, #5.


Morning Line was way off, that's all.
Wouldn't Brisnet be more credible if they made their own ML to go along with their Prime power ratings? Kind of like PA's lines on his selections.

Exotic1
05-25-2017, 10:33 AM
Wouldn't Brisnet be more credible if they made their own ML to go along with their Prime power ratings? Kind of like PA's lines on his selections.

I don't know. You want morning lines or value lines?

green80
05-25-2017, 11:01 AM
As a regular at my homestate tracks, I think the bettors at EVD & FG are as sharp as any in the country. Not that the stables bet any more than ordinary but the word is always out if a horse is going to run good for some reason. Seems like more of the backside info gets to the bettors at these tracks.

ReplayRandall
05-25-2017, 11:30 AM
As a regular at my homestate tracks, I think the bettors at EVD & FG are as sharp as any in the country. Not that the stables bet any more than ordinary but the word is always out if a horse is going to run good for some reason. Seems like more of the backside info gets to the bettors at these tracks.

And because of the constant "word" that's being spread around for decades at these tracks, this is great for value on plays that don't involve the "word" horses. As long as you're being patient and selective of which insider horses to go against, these are some of the best +EV tracks that exist in racing..:ThmbUp:

PS- There's also a lot of phony info that gets spread to elevate the "real" good thing's prices in multiple pools.....Got to do your homework here on questionable connections, coupled with tote-board analysis.

green80
05-25-2017, 12:20 PM
And because of the constant "word" that's being spread around for decades at these tracks, this is great for value on plays that don't involve the "word" horses. As long as you're being patient and selective of which insider horses to go against, these are some of the best +EV tracks that exist in racing..:ThmbUp:

PS- There's also a lot of phony info that gets spread to elevate the "real" good thing's prices in multiple pools.....Got to do your homework here on questionable connections, coupled with tote-board analysis.


I agree, many of these well-intended horses don't run up to their expectations. You have to know how to filter your information.

Usually, most trainers in a race think they are going to win. I pay the most attention to the ones that tell me that they don't think their horse is going to run well today for whatever reason.

theotherside
05-25-2017, 02:58 PM
Thank You

green80
05-25-2017, 06:43 PM
I think stable betting is overrated. Take a good look at most of those guys, they ain't driving new Cadillacs.

outofthebox
05-26-2017, 05:58 AM
[QUOTE=Exotic1;2174548]Just checked. BRIS Prime Power ranking: #1, #2, #7, #5.


Morning Line was way off, that's all.[/QUOTE The Morning Lines are way off quite frequently here. Mo's Love in the next race this same program, was listed at 5-1 and went off at 1/5...

NorCalGreg
05-26-2017, 06:13 AM
[QUOTE=Exotic1;2174548]Just checked. BRIS Prime Power ranking: #1, #2, #7, #5.


Morning Line was way off, that's all.[/QUOTE The Morning Lines are way off quite frequently here. Mo's Love in the next race this same program, was listed at 5-1 and went off at 1/5...

Yeah....seen that a lot there @ EVD. Lone Star is another one.

The only reply I have to all the armchair quarterbacking--I didn't have the luxury of knowing GGG had already won, when I posted my selection.

Find a 15-1 ML horse--before the race--and tell me why it was so easy to pick that horse...after he wins

NorCalGreg
05-26-2017, 06:16 AM
I think stable betting is overrated. Take a good look at most of those guys, they ain't driving new Cadillacs.

The guy that owns and trains GREEN GRATTO is a UPS driver--and I think he was out delivering packages the next day :pound: