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BETA
05-24-2017, 11:29 AM
This post is about finding wagering opportunities based on vulnerable ML favorites. Each day I run a database query to isolate these potential bad bets (underlays) to tab for further handicapping review….

Obviously, this info would be better suited for exchange wagering; however, I like to use it as a tool to “potentially” play against horses in both the horizontal and vertical wagering pools….

For those interested in the statistical performance, here’s some data for consideration….
Last 12 Months ending Jan 2017:
Plays = 3687
Win% = 17.01%
ROI = -34.53%
I. V. = 1.32
Average Off Odds = 3.59

Subset of same horses actually going off as Tote Favorite:
Plays = 1198 (32% of total sample)
Win% = 23.62%
ROI = -34.14%
I.V. = 1.84
Average Off Odds = 1.78

Last 3 Months ending Apr 2017:
Plays = 695
Win% = 17.99%
ROI = -32.91%
I. V. = 1.40
Average Off Odds = 3.50

Subset of same horses actually going off as Tote Favorite:
Plays = 243 (35% of total sample)
Win% = 25.10%
ROI = -33.37%
I.V. = 1.92
Average Off Odds = 1.81

As a reminder, this info is intended as a starting point only as each race needs to be properly vetted to warrant further action…. For those interested, this list can be found daily at the following website:
https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

Winger
05-24-2017, 12:30 PM
This post is about finding wagering opportunities based on vulnerable ML favorites. Each day I run a database query to isolate these potential bad bets (underlays) to tab for further handicapping review….

Obviously, this info would be better suited for exchange wagering; however, I like to use it as a tool to “potentially” play against horses in both the horizontal and vertical wagering pools….

For those interested in the statistical performance, here’s some data for consideration….
Last 12 Months ending Jan 2017:
Plays = 3687
Win% = 17.01%
ROI = -34.53%
I. V. = 1.32
Average Off Odds = 3.59

Subset of same horses actually going off as Tote Favorite:
Plays = 1198 (32% of total sample)
Win% = 23.62%
ROI = -34.14%
I.V. = 1.84
Average Off Odds = 1.78

Last 3 Months ending Apr 2017:
Plays = 695
Win% = 17.99%
ROI = -32.91%
I. V. = 1.40
Average Off Odds = 3.50

Subset of same horses actually going off as Tote Favorite:
Plays = 243 (35% of total sample)
Win% = 25.10%
ROI = -33.37%
I.V. = 1.92
Average Off Odds = 1.81

As a reminder, this info is intended as a starting point only as each race needs to be properly vetted to warrant further action…. For those interested, this list can be found daily at the following website:
https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!


Are these numbers based on back-testing, or did you come up with the model before January 2016?

cnollfan
05-24-2017, 12:39 PM
Thanks, Beta. I love this.

VigorsTheGrey
05-24-2017, 02:26 PM
Hello...Nice of you to share your work here with us.....Do you plan on posting race card data for at least a few weeks here...?

That would be great...! What do the numbers under your models (far right) represent...? What does "bump" mean...? And "HOT"...?

Thank you...Vigors.

BETA
05-24-2017, 07:41 PM
I’ve attached the list for of Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 25th…. As general clarification, this list proves useful as my personal approach involves multiple tracks…. If you’re only playing one or two tracks, this info will not be especially useful as your normal handicapping routines will easily identify these poor ML Favs….

Winger, in Jan 2017 I altered my contender selection methodology…. The database detail I shared above is based on back testing this new approach…. The data shown for the last three months represents “live” results.

Cnollfan, thanks!

Vigors, the numbers shown for each model represent the “rank” (1 = best); the “bump” is a value based algorithm; and “hot” = hot trainer based on recent trends…. Please understand that this worksheet and corresponding contender grade is intended as an organizational starting point only (subject to a more in-depth handicapping appraisal based on the unique dynamics of each individual race).

BOL!

VigorsTheGrey
05-24-2017, 08:12 PM
I love this..! Thanks...I read more on your site about the process and the models...very organized and clear...will put it into use soon...thanks again...Vigors.

fight
05-25-2017, 02:29 PM
I cant find hot or bump where is it ty

Winger
05-25-2017, 04:58 PM
I’ve attached the list for of Vulnerable Morning Line Favorites for May 25th…. As general clarification, this list proves useful as my personal approach involves multiple tracks…. If you’re only playing one or two tracks, this info will not be especially useful as your normal handicapping routines will easily identify these poor ML Favs….

Winger, in Jan 2017 I altered my contender selection methodology…. The database detail I shared above is based on back testing this new approach…. The data shown for the last three months represents “live” results.

Cnollfan, thanks!

Vigors, the numbers shown for each model represent the “rank” (1 = best); the “bump” is a value based algorithm; and “hot” = hot trainer based on recent trends…. Please understand that this worksheet and corresponding contender grade is intended as an organizational starting point only (subject to a more in-depth handicapping appraisal based on the unique dynamics of each individual race).

BOL!

That's pretty promising that your 3 month trend is staying in line with your back-testing. I can see a lot of value in what you are doing.

Dave Schwartz
05-25-2017, 05:23 PM
Those are excellent numbers!

IMHO, the real key to winning is in picking good low-odds non-contenders.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

biggestal99
05-25-2017, 06:20 PM
We shall see how it does on the x. Played the last 3 races on the vf list,today
20 bucks to lose at the sp.

I'll do it when ever I play the x.

Allan

BETA
05-25-2017, 06:46 PM
See attachment.

Also, a couple of quick notes…. For “off” tracks and “off” the turf races it’s best to disregard both the vulnerable ML Favorite List as well as the Contender Grades shown on the Past Performance worksheet (located on website).

It’s very important to also not fall in love with the “A+” Contender Grades while skipping your normal handicapping routines…. My own approach is centered on a “regression-to-the-mean” general philosophy and in turn, I am quick to manually downgrade (or upgrade) contenders as necessary….

BOL!

BETA
05-26-2017, 09:47 AM
Biggestal99’s post got me thinking…. I’m not an Exchange player and thus not totally familiar with the format; however, I’ve reworked the data based on what I assume is a typical scenario…. This corrected data is based on offering the Vulnerable Morning Line Fav at Morning Line Odds (sell price)…. In turn, assuming all orders are filled when the tote price <= ML Odds…. The following new data reflects all winners paid per ML Odds instead of Tote (off) Odds:

Last 12 Months ending Jan 2017:
Plays = 1416
Win% = 21.75%
ROI = -18.76
I.V. = 1.68
Average Off Odds = 1.94

Last 3 Months ending Apr 2017:
Plays = 278
Win% = 23.02%
ROI = -18.88
I.V. = 1.80
Average Off Odds = 1.94

Very sorry for not properly presenting this scenario/data in my initial post!

BETA
05-26-2017, 10:20 AM
Just wanted to let you know your product “Organize Your Handicapping” was the inspiration behind my recently revised contender selection methodology…. In fact, I’m a fan of most of your work (products); your on-going innovative, original “thinking”; and your willingness to share new approaches/processes at modest pricing!

I would encourage anyone who isn’t familiar with Dave to check out his website and his product “offerings”!

VigorsTheGrey
05-26-2017, 02:55 PM
Hi BETA, was wondering if you were going to post your daily files for this coming Sat and Monday...?

biggestal99
05-26-2017, 05:58 PM
Biggestal99’s post got me thinking…. I’m not an Exchange player and thus not totally familiar with the format; however, I’ve reworked the data based on what I assume is a typical scenario…. This corrected data is based on offering the Vulnerable Morning Line Fav at Morning Line Odds (sell price)…. In turn, assuming all orders are filled when the tote price <= ML Odds…. The following new data reflects all winners paid per ML Odds instead of Tote (off) Odds:

Last 12 Months ending Jan 2017:
Plays = 1416
Win% = 21.75%
ROI = -18.76
I.V. = 1.68
Average Off Odds = 1.94

Last 3 Months ending Apr 2017:
Plays = 278
Win% = 23.02%
ROI = -18.88
I.V. = 1.80
Average Off Odds = 1.94

Very sorry for not properly presenting this scenario/data in my initial post!

Hmm interesting the roi goes up when using that method.

The 7th just went off at woodbine. Savana city the play against is sitting at 7-2 he then dips with 2 minutes to post to 5-2.

I literally was drooling at that price.

I could not hit the keyboard fast enough (in x betting you snooze you lose) to place the bet.

Horse runs rallies for second as chalkie wins.

Keep em coming, when I have enough of a sample I will post the results.


Allan

BETA
05-26-2017, 07:01 PM
See attachment.

BETA
05-27-2017, 08:35 AM
If both entries are not listed, it is likely the other half is a contender…. Please do not blindly toss both halves of coupled entries (as vulnerable) unless you’ve done your handicapping due diligence…. Sorry I did not mention this earlier!

BETA
05-27-2017, 10:08 PM
See attachment.

BETA
05-28-2017, 07:24 PM
See attachment.

Speed Figure
05-29-2017, 01:52 AM
Why don't you give a day by day recap on how these horses do?

BETA
05-29-2017, 02:59 PM
No time to do daily recap as suggested; however, the following is a recap of database results from completed races.... Please understand that scratches do effect the overall race dynamics and in turn, some horses are deleted and/or added accordingly.... In other words, the info that follows may not exactly reflect the list posted; but, it does capture the overall "general" trend:

Plays = 83
Winners = 14
Win% = 16.9%
Total Winnings = $107.90
ROI = -35.0%

Subset = Horses that went off <= ML Odds
Plays = 36
Winners = 7
Win% = 19.4%
Total Winnings = $37.20
ROI = -48.3%
Hypothetical Only: (Winners paid at ML Odds = $50.00)

If something (documentation) is needed beyond this "broad brush" approach.... Please feel free to list your own findings accordingly.

BETA
05-31-2017, 11:26 AM
I’m discontinuing daily list as I’ve discovered that “scratches” have a significant negative impact on end results…. Essentially, ML favorites that are non-contenders before scratches become contenders thus corrupting the initial “list”…. Since I’m unable to provide an updated list in a timely fashion, I’m terminating this activity.

jasperson
06-01-2017, 09:06 AM
The 3 horse is the ml favorite. He is 0 for 14 at this level with 6 2nds. They have changed nothing. Same trainer(1 for 67) same jockey (2 for 97) and no equipment change. The 1,6 and 7 could beat him. The 1 has a new trainer with a new jockey a 7 lb apprentice and the trainer gave the horse a workout before this race. The 6 was claimed and moved up in class to Mc1600 and finished 2nd. Now he is dropped back to Mc12500. The 7 has been racing on turf and has the same speed rating as the 3 in their last race. The 7's trainer is 17% with turf to dirt move.

jasperson
06-01-2017, 09:10 AM
That race is today 6/1. GP race2

Robert Fischer
06-01-2017, 11:14 AM
The 3 horse is the ml favorite. He is 0 for 14 at this level with 6 2nds. They have changed nothing. Same trainer(1 for 67) same jockey (2 for 97) and no equipment change. The 1,6 and 7 could beat him. The 1 has a new trainer with a new jockey a 7 lb apprentice and the trainer gave the horse a workout before this race. The 6 was claimed and moved up in class to Mc1600 and finished 2nd. Now he is dropped back to Mc12500. The 7 has been racing on turf and has the same speed rating as the 3 in their last race. The 7's trainer is 17% with turf to dirt move.

Good handicapping.

Tom liz 5/20
trip=That 3, Tom Liz had about as dull a 2nd as you can get, last out (5/20). The 3 and the Winner in that race had the same trip, with the 20-1 winner being a bit clearer, on his wrong lead, outfinishing the 3.
The race flow made Tom Liz look better than he was. Definitely a negative factor regarding his value today.

$=The only positive model that I see in that race was the 12-1 ML(7th choice) bet down to 6-1(4th choice). Like everything else, it's merely a shortcut when taken by itself, but sometimes that indicates a positive factor.

Tom Liz 5/06
trip = two speeds went out, in what was an above-average-for-class duel. Tom Liz had a dream setup behind them. Have to give him credit for having good fundamentals, however. He inherited a winning jewel, and looked the winner at one point, but one of the speeds surprisingly found more, and held him off.

$ = Tom liz went off default favorite of 3-1, after being 4th choice morning line of 6/1. Could indicate good intent, and form, or the type of form the public 'gravitates' to.
============================


I haven't handicapped the other horses, but Tom Liz looks to be a 'default' favorite type.
He certainly fits at this class, and figures to get a good trip, and deliver with relatively strong fundamentals.
He shows no special talent level for this class, and has lost the race-within-the-race in the last two.
No more likely to win than run second. His two seconds will take $, but are more indicative of his actual ability, than winning potential.

Interesting. Will have to handicap the rest of the field.

Robert Fischer
06-01-2017, 02:49 PM
7 looks like the value.

the race two back was bizarre. Loose horse caused premature move.
Last race behind pace that carried speed.

Robert Fischer
06-01-2017, 03:01 PM
The 3 horse is the ml favorite. He is 0 for 14 at this level with 6 2nds. They have changed nothing. Same trainer(1 for 67) same jockey (2 for 97) and no equipment change. The 1,6 and 7 could beat him. The 1 has a new trainer with a new jockey a 7 lb apprentice and the trainer gave the horse a workout before this race. The 6 was claimed and moved up in class to Mc1600 and finished 2nd. Now he is dropped back to Mc12500. The 7 has been racing on turf and has the same speed rating as the 3 in their last race. The 7's trainer is 17% with turf to dirt move.

Great job. 3 loses at even money chalk. Your :6: pays $15.40

jasperson
06-02-2017, 06:49 AM
Great job. 3 loses at even money chalk. Your :6: pays $15.40
I didn't bet enough. My oddsline program had 3 @ 5/2, 2 and 6 @ 9/2 for the 2nd choices. If I had boxed them in the exacta it was 269.70 and the tri 509.60. Bet like a chicken eat with the birds.

Dave Schwartz
06-02-2017, 11:34 AM
Just wanted to let you know your product “Organize Your Handicapping” was the inspiration behind my recently revised contender selection methodology…. In fact, I’m a fan of most of your work (products); your on-going innovative, original “thinking”; and your willingness to share new approaches/processes at modest pricing!

I would encourage anyone who isn’t familiar with Dave to check out his website and his product “offerings”!


Thank you so much for those kind words.

I am truly committed to sharing - even free stuff.


Dave

cj
06-07-2017, 11:15 PM
Abel Tasman in the Acorn on Saturday, 2-1.

VigorsTheGrey
06-07-2017, 11:38 PM
BETA,
Are you coming back...? Your files are 1st Class...!