Bel R9 Md 40000 5/21/17

[omar2]

Bel R9 Md 40000
The most important factor in maiden races is board action. In other words bet downs from their M/L. You have to look early because sometimes the board can change in a hurry. In this race the #'s 1-2-5-9 all opened below their M/L. The 2 was the first to jump above his m/l. What i found interesting was the 11 opening at 7/2, dipping to 3-1 and for 1 flash dipped to 5/2 before going back up to 3-1, not even lukewarm and that was the m/l favorite. Within the last couple of minutes the 4 went down to 2-1 and i knew then he was the horse to beat because the 11 never hit 2-1. the 5 went down to 6-1 from 7-1 the whole time, while the 9 went from 7 to 13-1. But the 1 stayed at 12-1 until the last flash where he bumped up to 19-1. This horse was bet the whole time and the 8 horse dropped to 5-1 at the end. So i knew the 4 was dangerous, maybe the 8 off the l/o and the 1.
In addition to the board action you have to look at # furloughs worked or raced within the last 17 days. The ratio with maidens 1 furlough per day. Well none of them really have it but let's look:
#1 2 FTS 4f works 5/8 & 5/15. That comes to 8f in 7 days;
#2 raced 7f on 5/5, no works since;
#3 raced 4/23 one 4f on 5/14;
#4 A Wesley Ward FTS 5f on 5/7 and 5f on 5/15 both at Kee, that's 10f in 8 days;
#5 raced 8.5f on 5/4, no works since (15) days;
# 6 hasn't raced since 3/24 and only one 4f work on 5/14. To me that's not enough, should have had at least a 3f work with the other in a 7 day period;
#7 Another FTS 4f on 5/8, 3f on 5/16 7f in 8 days, acceptable BUT GOT NO BOARD ACTION WHATSOEVER;
#8 hasn't raced since Dec. but that's ok because i ignore layoffs on turf. 4f on 5/7 and 4f on 5/15 is 8f in 8 days within the last 17 day period JUST ACCEPT HIS CURRENT FORM' RIGHT?;
#9 raced 7f on 5/5 no works since' works out to 7f in 14 days or 1/2f per day NO GOOD;
# 10 last raced in feb.(again i don't care) worked 4f on 5/4 and 4f on 5/13 is 8f in 9 days, again acceptable but again no board action!;
# 11 raced on 4/14 but only one work 4f on 5/4 at MTH - no good
So what we're left with are the 1, 4 and 8 on current form and these are the horses that took action on the board too- WHAT A SURPRISE, SOMEBODY MUST BE PAYING ATTENTION. RIGHT? Everything else in these maiden races is just noise. If you want noise turn on TVG. they will never mention these 2 factors like i went over them here cause if they did i might just fall outta bed. I'm gonna post this in the general discussion and after an hour or two, i have to rest my knees, i will go over the 8th race at Bel. in the general discussion section. Later, Omar. They ran 1-4-8 #1 paid $41.80

[dilanesp]

Bel R9 Md 40000
The most important factor in maiden races is board action. In other words bet downs from their M/L. You have to look early because sometimes the board can change in a hurry. In this race the #'s 1-2-5-9 all opened below their M/L. The 2 was the first to jump above his m/l. What i found interesting was the 11 opening at 7/2, dipping to 3-1 and for 1 flash dipped to 5/2 before going back up to 3-1, not even lukewarm and that was the m/l favorite. Within the last couple of minutes the 4 went down to 2-1 and i knew then he was the horse to beat because the 11 never hit 2-1. the 5 went down to 6-1 from 7-1 the whole time, while the 9 went from 7 to 13-1. But the 1 stayed at 12-1 until the last flash where he bumped up to 19-1. This horse was bet the whole time and the 8 horse dropped to 5-1 at the end. So i knew the 4 was dangerous, maybe the 8 off the l/o and the 1.
In addition to the board action you have to look at # furloughs worked or raced within the last 17 days. The ratio with maidens 1 furlough per day. Well none of them really have it but let's look:
#1 2 FTS 4f works 5/8 & 5/15. That comes to 8f in 7 days;
#2 raced 7f on 5/5, no works since;
#3 raced 4/23 one 4f on 5/14;
#4 A Wesley Ward FTS 5f on 5/7 and 5f on 5/15 both at Kee, that's 10f in 8 days;
#5 raced 8.5f on 5/4, no works since (15) days;
# 6 hasn't raced since 3/24 and only one 4f work on 5/14. To me that's not enough, should have had at least a 3f work with the other in a 7 day period;
#7 Another FTS 4f on 5/8, 3f on 5/16 7f in 8 days, acceptable BUT GOT NO BOARD ACTION WHATSOEVER;
#8 hasn't raced since Dec. but that's ok because i ignore layoffs on turf. 4f on 5/7 and 4f on 5/15 is 8f in 8 days within the last 17 day period JUST ACCEPT HIS CURRENT FORM' RIGHT?;
#9 raced 7f on 5/5 no works since' works out to 7f in 14 days or 1/2f per day NO GOOD;
# 10 last raced in feb.(again i don't care) worked 4f on 5/4 and 4f on 5/13 is 8f in 9 days, again acceptable but again no board action!;
# 11 raced on 4/14 but only one work 4f on 5/4 at MTH - no good
So what we're left with are the 1, 4 and 8 on current form and these are the horses that took action on the board too- WHAT A SURPRISE, SOMEBODY MUST BE PAYING ATTENTION. RIGHT? Everything else in these maiden races is just noise. If you want noise turn on TVG. they will never mention these 2 factors like i went over them here cause if they did i might just fall outta bed. I'm gonna post this in the general discussion and after an hour or two, i have to rest my knees, i will go over the 8th race at Bel. in the general discussion section. Later, Omar. They ran 1-4-8 #1 paid $41.80

A little story from when I was a kid. My parents would take me to the track, and they hated maiden races. They would complain when a card had three or four of them. They would routinely pass them to bet the races with horses who had established form and who had proven they could win.

When I got a little older, I found that maiden races were actually among the most formful and often the easiest to handicap, for much the same reasons you are saying here.

(Of course, having said that, we had a horse who was 0 for 26 lifetime and who couldn't win an 870 yard mixed breed quarter horse race at Los Al go bombs away in a maiden race on Preakness Day at Santa Anita, so your mileage may vary. :) )

[Dahoss9698]

Bel R9 Md 40000
The most important factor in maiden races is board action. In other words bet downs from their M/L. You have to look early because sometimes the board can change in a hurry. In this race the #'s 1-2-5-9 all opened below their M/L. The 2 was the first to jump above his m/l. What i found interesting was the 11 opening at 7/2, dipping to 3-1 and for 1 flash dipped to 5/2 before going back up to 3-1, not even lukewarm and that was the m/l favorite. Within the last couple of minutes the 4 went down to 2-1 and i knew then he was the horse to beat because the 11 never hit 2-1. the 5 went down to 6-1 from 7-1 the whole time, while the 9 went from 7 to 13-1. But the 1 stayed at 12-1 until the last flash where he bumped up to 19-1. This horse was bet the whole time and the 8 horse dropped to 5-1 at the end. So i knew the 4 was dangerous, maybe the 8 off the l/o and the 1.
In addition to the board action you have to look at # furloughs worked or raced within the last 17 days. The ratio with maidens 1 furlough per day. Well none of them really have it but let's look:
#1 2 FTS 4f works 5/8 & 5/15. That comes to 8f in 7 days;
#2 raced 7f on 5/5, no works since;
#3 raced 4/23 one 4f on 5/14;
#4 A Wesley Ward FTS 5f on 5/7 and 5f on 5/15 both at Kee, that's 10f in 8 days;
#5 raced 8.5f on 5/4, no works since (15) days;
# 6 hasn't raced since 3/24 and only one 4f work on 5/14. To me that's not enough, should have had at least a 3f work with the other in a 7 day period;
#7 Another FTS 4f on 5/8, 3f on 5/16 7f in 8 days, acceptable BUT GOT NO BOARD ACTION WHATSOEVER;
#8 hasn't raced since Dec. but that's ok because i ignore layoffs on turf. 4f on 5/7 and 4f on 5/15 is 8f in 8 days within the last 17 day period JUST ACCEPT HIS CURRENT FORM' RIGHT?;
#9 raced 7f on 5/5 no works since' works out to 7f in 14 days or 1/2f per day NO GOOD;
# 10 last raced in feb.(again i don't care) worked 4f on 5/4 and 4f on 5/13 is 8f in 9 days, again acceptable but again no board action!;
# 11 raced on 4/14 but only one work 4f on 5/4 at MTH - no good
So what we're left with are the 1, 4 and 8 on current form and these are the horses that took action on the board too- WHAT A SURPRISE, SOMEBODY MUST BE PAYING ATTENTION. RIGHT? Everything else in these maiden races is just noise. If you want noise turn on TVG. they will never mention these 2 factors like i went over them here cause if they did i might just fall outta bed. I'm gonna post this in the general discussion and after an hour or two, i have to rest my knees, i will go over the 8th race at Bel. in the general discussion section. Later, Omar. They ran 1-4-8 #1 paid $41.80
Isn't this better before a race? I mean everyone is always a lot smarter after the fact, no?

[PaceAdvantage]

Isn't this better before a race? I mean everyone is always a lot smarter after the fact, no?It's a little difficult to provide real time tote board commentary unless you're in the chat room I suppose.

You can classify this as a learning experience gleaned from an already run event. Nothing wrong with that.

And if it's not the kind of thing you're into, just move along without comment. I don't understand why you have to be a ball buster just for the sake of busting balls...:lol:

[Dahoss9698]

It's a little difficult to provide real time tote board commentary unless you're in the chat room I suppose.

You can classify this as a learning experience gleaned from an already run event. Nothing wrong with that.

And if it's not the kind of thing you're into, just move along without comment. I don't understand why you have to be a ball buster just for the sake of busting balls...:lol:

Im not busting balls. He mentions TVG will never mention what he mentioned here. Except TVG actually has to provide commentary as it's happening. They don't have the luxury of doing this stuff 12 hours later.

I'm not sure what could be learned from his post. To me it seems like another red board, which is what it was. He had like 25 minutes before the race to mention this stuff.

I don't understand your constant need to try and change who I am. I'm not telling you that your constant need to pat yourself on the back is extremely off putting so I don't really need you telling me when or why I should post, ok?

[JustRalph]

Seems like middle of the road basic tote analysis. 500 hundred guys on this board could have written the post

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't understand your constant need to try and change who I am. I'm not telling you that your constant need to pat yourself on the back is extremely off putting so I don't really need you telling me when or why I should post, ok?One difference is I'm not insulting other people when I pat myself, unlike you, who is insulting in about every other post.

And you're damn right I'm gonna pat myself on my back as often as I can...when you do something hardly anyone else has done in 18 years here, pat away my friend...pat away...

This is a pretty harmless thread. I guess with a bunch of your more well known foils gone, you have to find something.

[omar2]

I was asked on another website to go over the last 3 races that i hit sunday at belmont and so i decided to post them here too. These were special situation races that a horseplayer might actually learn something from. And i wasn't being insulting i was being sarcastic on purpose for reasons i won't go into here. And by the way TVG commentators get the same pp's you and i get plus they have access to Timeform, which i have no use for, plus clocker reports,etc.
If your members feel the need to know or want the winners before the race then they should call National Handicappers and pay them for their clairvoyant abilities to pick a $3.60 horse.BYE

[Dahoss9698]

One difference is I'm not insulting other people when I pat myself, unlike you, who is insulting in about every other post.

And you're damn right I'm gonna pat myself on my back as often as I can...when you do something hardly anyone else has done in 18 years here, pat away my friend...pat away...

This is a pretty harmless thread. I guess with a bunch of your more well known foils gone, you have to find something.

And what I said was harmless. If the intent was to teach, I'm not sure how anyone is supposed to learn anything. Early money isn't always right in maiden races. I didn't insult the poster at all.

You're just hypersensitive to everything I post. Trust me, I pass on lots of threads and posts that are ridiculous.

[Dahoss9698]

I was asked on another website to go over the last 3 races that i hit sunday at belmont and so i decided to post them here too. These were special situation races that a horseplayer might actually learn something from. And i wasn't being insulting i was being sarcastic on purpose for reasons i won't go into here. And by the way TVG commentators get the same pp's you and i get plus they have access to Timeform, which i have no use for, plus clocker reports,etc.
If your members feel the need to know or want the winners before the race then they should call National Handicappers and pay them for their clairvoyant abilities to pick a $3.60 horse.BYE

Do us a favor and post about your last three losers also. That way we can learn from that too.

[Track Phantom]

Do us a favor and post about your last three losers also. That way we can learn from that too.
It appears there is a loser in his posting....just not a horse.