PDA

View Full Version : ...and its on to Belmont


PowerUpPaynter
05-21-2017, 09:28 PM
Might as well start talking Belmont. Anyone heard of who might race in it?

n.c
05-21-2017, 09:32 PM
for Kenny Mcpeek for sure.

Afleet
05-21-2017, 09:40 PM
Epicharis from Japan is supposed to be a go. I read where Japanese gamblers bet $40 million on the Arc when a Japanese horse ran there. There could be some crazy payoffs Belmont day

n.c
05-21-2017, 09:57 PM
possible.

letswastemoney
05-21-2017, 11:33 PM
It's looking like a walk in the park for Classic Empire if Cloud Computing doesn't show up.

Grits
05-21-2017, 11:40 PM
Epicharis from Japan is supposed to be a go. I read where Japanese gamblers bet $40 million on the Arc when a Japanese horse ran there. There could be some crazy payoffs Belmont day

This was in 2006 when thousands of Japanese fans traveled to France to watch their country's mortal lock, Deep Impact, a son of Sunday Silence. He finished no better than 3rd, beaten by Rail Link, trained by France's iconic horseman, Andre Fabre.

The Biscuit
05-22-2017, 10:17 AM
It's looking like a walk in the park for Classic Empire if Cloud Computing doesn't show up.


You like Classic Empire after he could not get the shorter Preakness distance than the Derby ??

His pedigree must be yelling distance ?


What's your angle bro ?


Thank you for your input ....

Julz
05-22-2017, 10:39 AM
So far confirmed:

Epicharis
Senior investment
Lookin at Lee
Classic Empire
Practical Joke

Possible:
Cloud Computing
Conquest Mo Money
Twisted Tom
Multiplier

Out:
Hence
Gunnevera

biggestal99
05-22-2017, 11:20 AM
You like Classic Empire after he could not get the shorter Preakness distance than the Derby ??

His pedigree must be yelling distance ?


What's your angle bro ?


Thank you for your input ....

Well I know you asked someone else.

But Classic Empire is a prototypical won the battle lost the war horse.

He'll be hard to beat come Belmont day.

Allan

PowerUpPaynter
05-22-2017, 01:28 PM
Practical Joke is going to the Belmont? Pretty sure he is going to the Dwyer on Belmont day.

big frank
05-22-2017, 01:43 PM
I hope Timeline goes for Chad Brown in the belmont.....Chad says he wants to wait for the haskell.........Hope the owner Farrish talks him in to going in the belmont.....I believe Timeline will be the best 3yo when it is all said and done.......Love the pedigree and ability shown so far...................

Robert Fischer
05-22-2017, 01:53 PM
Belmont is an interesting race to handicap.

American Pharoah, Afleet Alex, and Empire Maker make 'capping the Belmont look easy.

Then there are the Exaggerators, Big Browns, Curlins , Smarty Jones'...

Also a fair share of Belmonts that fail to draw a clear (true)Grade 1 stakes horse.

It is a specialist's race. In addition to Stamina, the Belmont amplifies things like a horse's ability to relax, and the timing between a jockey and the horse in respect to ideal tactical positioning.



In 'marathon' style dirt races, forward position is in vogue, both in training and handicapping.
It's a great thing to have forward position on that turn and then finish with solid fundamentals. Everyone behind you is exhausted and much of the field's late kick has been dampened, leaving most incapable of summoning any late stretch-running heroics.

However, the Belmont Stakes generally features a hodgepodge of 3yos from the Derby trail, and the pace isn't always controlled by a marathon horse.

Contenders, pretenders, positioning, flow... and hopefully it isn't obvious to the public, and doesn't rain!

bobphilo
05-22-2017, 02:15 PM
You like Classic Empire after he could not get the shorter Preakness distance than the Derby ??

His pedigree must be yelling distance ?


What's your angle bro ?


Thank you for your input ....

CE should be able to stretch out if he just doesn't get involved in another speed duel and be able to ration his speed more efficiently. Pace is the race.

Hoops McCann
05-22-2017, 02:36 PM
did Thunder Snow go back home? i was hoping to see him get another shot.

Spalding No!
05-22-2017, 02:37 PM
It'll be interesting to see what Derby also-rans show up for the Belmont.

Will Tapwrit, Gormley, Irap, and/or Irish War Cry show up?

3 of those are by sires that have already gotten Belmont winners (Tapit, Tiznow, and Curlin).

Irish War Cry might seem out of place, but in a paceless race with his pedigree he could find the necessary stamina.

Given the way the race unfolded, it seems like the connections Gormley and Irap made a mistake by sitting out the Preakness. Both might have been in good position to strike at Classic Empire once he disposed of Always Dreaming. At any rate, they could at least lend some speed to the pace proceedings at Belmont.

Robert Fischer
05-22-2017, 02:54 PM
Gormley - seems to be training very well.

Irap - also continuing to train very well.

Tapwrit - I haven't heard anything. He seems to be very logical if all is well.

Timeline - I'm guessing that Brown will opt to run Take Your Guns (4th Peter Pan), and give his 1st stringers (Timeline, Cloud Computing) a break for summer.

Thunder Snow - haven't heard anything definitive, guessing he's off the trail

as Julz mentioned
Epicharis
Senior investment
Lookin at Lee
^^^ heard these are 100%


Classic Empire(rest?)
Practical Joke(Dwyer Stakes?)
^^ heard these are less likely 'possibles'

CincyHorseplayer
05-22-2017, 03:47 PM
The 2014 Belmont trifecta was my last major score in a TC race so I am ready for this year's version! Can't say who I like just yet but with this mediocrity IMO of a crop this should be a good betting race. I didn't bet a dime on the Preakness. Ready to dive in here. Love the Belmont anyway. There should be more 12f dirt races. I detest 9f.

handyman1968
05-22-2017, 04:06 PM
Leaning towards the Japanese horse atm. They know how to travel and what race to target. Say all you want about their failure to win the Arc but they've been close many times which cannot be said of the other major racing jurisdictions.

Julz
05-22-2017, 06:30 PM
Gormley - seems to be training very well.

Irap - also continuing to train very well.

Tapwrit - I haven't heard anything. He seems to be very logical if all is well.

Timeline - I'm guessing that Brown will opt to run Take Your Guns (4th Peter Pan), and give his 1st stringers (Timeline, Cloud Computing) a break for summer.

Thunder Snow - haven't heard anything definitive, guessing he's off the trail

as Julz mentioned
Epicharis
Senior investment
Lookin at Lee
^^^ heard these are 100%


Classic Empire(rest?)
Practical Joke(Dwyer Stakes?)
^^ heard these are less likely 'possibles'

I read earlier today that timeline was being pointed to the Haskell.

Robert Fischer
05-22-2017, 06:54 PM
I read earlier today that timeline was being pointed to the Haskell.

That sounds right.

It's rare that a major trainer will run a Grade 1 stakes horse (especially a prospect like Timeline) in the Belmont Stakes.

Unless there's a triple crown on the line or something, most of these guys would prefer to rest their 1st stringers up, run them in something along the lines of Haskell, Travers, (possibly a prep), Breeders Cup.

Trainer Chad Brown had a quote: “He doesn’t strike me as a mile-and-a-half horse, but I’m not going to declare him out of the (Belmont Stakes). I’ll discuss that with Mr. Farish, but that wasn’t really my plan going in here. We’re still in the developmental stage with this horse.”

Maybe Timeline really doesn't strike Brown as a 12F horse, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brown were very confident in Timeline's ability to run 12 Furlongs. My gut says he simply wants to develop the horse properly.

Haskell could shape up to be quite a race. Timeline... Irish War Cry is a NJ connected horse and makes a lot of sense. The Haskell also seems like the type of spot that Pletcher would bring back Always Dreaming (although he may duck, if too many stars are pointed there).


Belmont - add Multiplier to the 'probables' list. I hadn't noticed that Multiplier had traffic issues in the Preakness. They will run if the horse is well.

Julz
05-22-2017, 07:04 PM
Gormley - seems to be training very well.

Irap - also continuing to train very well.

Tapwrit - I haven't heard anything. He seems to be very logical if all is well.

Timeline - I'm guessing that Brown will opt to run Take Your Guns (4th Peter Pan), and give his 1st stringers (Timeline, Cloud Computing) a break for summer.

Thunder Snow - haven't heard anything definitive, guessing he's off the trail

as Julz mentioned
Epicharis
Senior investment
Lookin at Lee
^^^ heard these are 100%


Classic Empire(rest?)
Practical Joke(Dwyer Stakes?)
^^ heard these are less likely 'possibles'

I read earlier today that timeline was being pointed to the Haskell.

Julz
05-22-2017, 07:19 PM
That sounds right.

It's rare that a major trainer will run a Grade 1 stakes horse (especially a prospect like Timeline) in the Belmont Stakes.

Unless there's a triple crown on the line or something, most of these guys would prefer to rest their 1st stringers up, run them in something along the lines of Haskell, Travers, (possibly a prep), Breeders Cup.

Trainer Chad Brown had a quote: “He doesn’t strike me as a mile-and-a-half horse, but I’m not going to declare him out of the (Belmont Stakes). I’ll discuss that with Mr. Farish, but that wasn’t really my plan going in here. We’re still in the developmental stage with this horse.”

Maybe Timeline really doesn't strike Brown as a 12F horse, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brown were very confident in Timeline's ability to run 12 Furlongs. My gut says he simply wants to develop the horse properly.

Haskell could shape up to be quite a race. Timeline... Irish War Cry is a NJ connected horse and makes a lot of sense. The Haskell also seems like the type of spot that Pletcher would bring back Always Dreaming (although he may duck, if too many stars are pointed there).


Belmont - add Multiplier to the 'probables' list. I hadn't noticed that Multiplier had traffic issues in the Preakness. They will run if the horse is well.

That makes a lot of sense, but I was always of the thought that the Peter Pan was a prep for the Belmont, so I assumed that timeline would be pointed there, however you clarified.

letswastemoney
05-22-2017, 07:58 PM
You like Classic Empire after he could not get the shorter Preakness distance than the Derby ??

His pedigree must be yelling distance ?


What's your angle bro ?


Thank you for your input ....They're probably not going 23 and 46 to start off the Belmont Stakes, so it should be fine.

Put Classic Empire on the flank of the leader or somewhere close. If the half goes in 48-49-ish, he should be good for the entire trip and inherit the lead as the others get tired.

Spalding No!
05-22-2017, 10:38 PM
You like Classic Empire after he could not get the shorter Preakness distance than the Derby ??

His pedigree must be yelling distance ?
Classic Empire is by a stallion who has produced one Belmont Stakes winner already and who was himself sired by a Belmont Stakes winner (Empire Maker).

On the bottom side, if you go back to the 4th dam, then you open a whole can of stamina as the family includes champion 3yo filly Revidere who won the 12f CCA Oaks and placed at 3 against older males in the 12f Jockey Club Gold Cup, Boldnesian-a Santa Anita Derby winner who was the paternal grandsire of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew; Dinner in Rio and Wing Out-both grass stayers, and Princessnesian who beat males in the Hollywood Gold Cup in 1:59+ and figures prominently in the pedigree of top racehorse and sire Harlan's Holiday.

Julz
05-22-2017, 11:17 PM
Classic Empire is by a stallion who has produced one Belmont Stakes winner already and who was himself sired by a Belmont Stakes winner (Empire Maker).

On the bottom side, if you go back to the 4th dam, then you open a whole can of stamina as the family includes champion 3yo filly Revidere who won the 12f CCA Oaks and placed at 3 against older males in the 12f Jockey Club Gold Cup, Boldnesian-a Santa Anita Derby winner who was the paternal grandsire of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew; Dinner in Rio and Wing Out-both grass stayers, and Princessnesian who beat males in the Hollywood Gold Cup in 1:59+ and figures prominently in the pedigree of top racehorse and sire Harlan's Holiday.

That was a great analysis. Are you able to do the same for the bottom of senior investment. I'm starting to like some things in his pedigree, however I'm unable to break it down as you did above.

Spalding No!
05-22-2017, 11:49 PM
That was a great analysis. Are you able to do the same for the bottom of senior investment. I'm starting to like some things in his pedigree, however I'm unable to break it down as you did above.
Senior Investment's bottom side isn't noted for its blacktype. In fact, the dam Plaid was probably the best horse from the female line and she was a multiple 2-turn stakes winner in the midwest.

However, the bottom side is notable for its longevity. Like Plaid herself, there are countless descendants from that line that made 30-40 starts and sometimes more. There isn't surprising a lot of black type though, even though it appears that the Jackson's (of Barbaro fame) and Jan and Mace Siegel controlled the family.

As far as stamina goes, you won't find bluer blood than that of the sire Discreetly Mine, a Derby also ran that was reformed as a sprinter late in his 3yo. His close relatives Discreet Cat and Awesome Maria were also middle distance types but when you have classic producers like Weekend Surprise, Up The Flagpole, and Numbered Account along with more recent top broodmares like Pretty Discreet and Prospectors Delite, you have to have some stamina hidden away. His dam won the 10f Alabama in the slop.

Also, the broodmare sire Deputy Commander, a late developing 3yo, took the Travers and was 2nd to Skip Away's smashing effort in the 1997 BC Classic. His dam was the top turf mare Anka Germania, who beat the streaking turf champion Sunshine Forever in the 12f Sword Dancer. Deputy Commander also sired Ten Most Wanted, who was a sharp 2nd in Empire Maker's Belmont win.

Julz
05-22-2017, 11:56 PM
Senior Investment's bottom side isn't noted for its blacktype. In fact, the dam Plaid was probably the best horse from the female line and she was a multiple 2-turn stakes winner in the midwest.

However, the bottom side is notable for its longevity. Like Plaid herself, there are countless descendants from that line that made 30-40 starts and sometimes more. There isn't surprising a lot of black type though, even though it appears that the Jackson's (of Barbaro fame) and Jan and Mace Siegel controlled the family.

As far as stamina goes, you won't find bluer blood than that of the sire Discreetly Mine, a Derby also ran that was reformed as a sprinter late in his 3yo. His close relatives Discreet Cat and Awesome Maria were also middle distance types but when you have classic producers like Weekend Surprise, Up The Flagpole, and Numbered Account along with more recent top broodmares like Pretty Discreet and Prospectors Delite, you have to have some stamina hidden away. His dam won the 10f Alabama in the slop.

Also, the broodmare sire Deputy Commander, a late developing 3yo, took the Travers and was 2nd to Skip Away's smashing effort in the 1997 BC Classic. His dam was the top turf mare Anka Germania, who beat the streaking turf champion Sunshine Forever in the 12f Sword Dancer. Deputy Commander also sired Ten Most Wanted, who was a sharp 2nd in Empire Maker's Belmont win.

That was awesome. Thanks for taking the time to research for me. I don't know how you guys do it. Best of luck.

Mc990
05-23-2017, 11:36 AM
Tapwrit makes as much sense as any in here.

Robert Fischer
05-23-2017, 12:32 PM
Take Your Guns (4th Peter Pan)

Looks like Brown is leaning toward Twisted Tom. (I have no idea whether that preference is mutually exclusive of Take Your Guns).

Twisted Tom ran a nice race in the Federico Tesio.

Race shaping up to be a handicapping challenge.

Have to hope that Classic Empire runs.

Big Peps
05-23-2017, 12:49 PM
Read today that Hollywood Handsome trained by Dallas Stewart, Fipke Owner/Breeder is a possibility.

castaway01
05-23-2017, 02:09 PM
They're probably not going 23 and 46 to start off the Belmont Stakes, so it should be fine.

Put Classic Empire on the flank of the leader or somewhere close. If the half goes in 48-49-ish, he should be good for the entire trip and inherit the lead as the others get tired.

With CE in his 3rd race in 5 weeks after a hard race last time, you'd better be getting 5-1 or more. And you won't be.

Fager Fan
05-23-2017, 03:09 PM
With CE in his 3rd race in 5 weeks after a hard race last time, you'd better be getting 5-1 or more. And you won't be.

Try 4th race in 8 weeks.

letswastemoney
05-23-2017, 03:13 PM
With CE in his 3rd race in 5 weeks after a hard race last time, you'd better be getting 5-1 or more. And you won't be.From a betting perspective, of course he's awful. Besides his obvious talent, he's the "bad boy" which fans love.

But I still think he's going to win. I might rethink this and come up with a longshot.

ReplayRandall
05-23-2017, 03:21 PM
The upcoming Belmont Stakes has a "Drosselmeyer" type of feel as the winner. It will be interesting to see which of the entries fits this mold......

jay68802
05-23-2017, 04:21 PM
I will probably give Looking at Lee a good look in this race.

Longshot
05-23-2017, 09:11 PM
As of today the Belmont possibles according to Bris.

Classic Empire............Mark Casse
Conquest Mo Money..Miguel Hernandez..Will train at Fair Hill
Epicharis.............K. Hagiwara (2nd in UAE Derby 77 days ago)
Gormley.............John Sherreffs
Irap..................Doug O'Neill
J Boys Echo...........Dale Roman
Lookin At Lee........Steve Asmussen
Meantime...........Brian Lynch
Multiplier...........Brendan Walsh
Patch..............Todd Pletcher
Senior Investment......Kenneth McPeek
Tapwrit........Todd Pletcher
Twisted Tom.......Chad Brown

Cloud Computing...Chad Brown (Probably will prepare for Saratoga meet)

letswastemoney
05-23-2017, 09:54 PM
Senior Investment has a poor running style for the Belmont, unless the pace is really blazing. He had a perfect setup in the Preakness and couldn't touch the Top 2.

ReplayRandall
05-23-2017, 10:19 PM
Senior Investment has a poor running style for the Belmont, unless the pace is really blazing. He had a perfect setup in the Preakness and couldn't touch the Top 2.
Couldn't disagree more....I posted the following in another thread, I'll post it here too:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I will go on record stating the horse I believe who is improving and will benefit most from the 1-1/2 mile distance, the WINNER of the Belmont Stakes is------->Senior Investment

Fager Fan
05-23-2017, 11:17 PM
As of today the Belmont possibles according to Bris.

Classic Empire............Mark Casse
Conquest Mo Money..Miguel Hernandez..Will train at Fair Hill
Epicharis.............K. Hagiwara (2nd in UAE Derby 77 days ago)
Gormley.............John Sherreffs
Irap..................Doug O'Neill
J Boys Echo...........Dale Roman
Lookin At Lee........Steve Asmussen
Meantime...........Brian Lynch
Multiplier...........Brendan Walsh
Patch..............Todd Pletcher
Senior Investment......Kenneth McPeek
Tapwrit........Todd Pletcher
Twisted Tom.......Chad Brown

Cloud Computing...Chad Brown (Probably will prepare for Saratoga meet)

You have to admit it's pretty pathetic when the connections of both the Derby winner and Preakness winner aren't sporting enough to show up for the Belmont.

So, go Classic Empire. May you be rewarded for running in all three. And you too, Lookin at Lee.

Dahoss9698
05-23-2017, 11:29 PM
You have to admit it's pretty pathetic when the connections of both the Derby winner and Preakness winner aren't sporting enough to show up for the Belmont.

So, go Classic Empire. May you be rewarded for running in all three. And you too, Lookin at Lee.

I can't imagine anyone who follows the sport thought Always Dreaming would be running in the Belmont after not winning the Preakness. Frankly, for a horse who has been given lots of time between races, his performance in the Preakness kind of screams time off, no?

I can't really fault the connections of Cloud Computing for not going either if they decide to give him some time. He just won the Preakness in his 4th lifetime start. It's a long year. No need to squeeze the lemon dry in June like we often see with horses who contest the triple crown. I think they want the Travers and they have a VERY good shot at getting it with this horse.

Fager Fan
05-24-2017, 12:38 AM
I can't imagine anyone who follows the sport thought Always Dreaming would be running in the Belmont after not winning the Preakness. Frankly, for a horse who has been given lots of time between races, his performance in the Preakness kind of screams time off, no?

I can't really fault the connections of Cloud Computing for not going either if they decide to give him some time. He just won the Preakness in his 4th lifetime start. It's a long year. No need to squeeze the lemon dry in June like we often see with horses who contest the triple crown. I think they want the Travers and they have a VERY good shot at getting it with this horse.

I'm not surprised by AD skipping, but CC should be there. I think his colt can go 2 races in 8 weeks. If that squeezes the lemon dry, then it's a pretty scrawny lemon.

Fager Fan
05-24-2017, 07:55 AM
I'm not surprised by AD skipping, but CC should be there. I think his colt can go 2 races in 8 weeks. If that squeezes the lemon dry, then it's a pretty scrawny lemon.

Make that 2 races in 9 weeks. I thought they'd said CC came interest the Preakness off 5 weeks, but it was 6 weeks.

Dahoss9698
05-24-2017, 09:16 AM
I'm not surprised by AD skipping, but CC should be there. I think his colt can go 2 races in 8 weeks. If that squeezes the lemon dry, then it's a pretty scrawny lemon.

Of course he probably CAN do it. But the question is why? His career began in February. Why come back in 3 weeks to run 12 furlongs if your long term goals don't fit it?

I love the Belmont but the Jim Dandy/Travers route seems like a much better idea to me for a horse who just won the Preakness in his 4th start than running back in the Belmont in 3 weeks.

biggestal99
05-24-2017, 09:53 AM
You have to admit it's pretty pathetic when the connections of both the Derby winner and Preakness winner aren't sporting enough to show up for the Belmont.

So, go Classic Empire. May you be rewarded for running in all three. And you too, Lookin at Lee.

well always dreaming did throw in a stinker. too much too soon. 3 races in 5 weeks is too much for some horses.

would be interested in horses that made a 3 races recently to see how they fared the rest of their career.

Allan

sour grapes
05-24-2017, 10:04 AM
chad brown stated to the little guy on sunday that the goal is the travers and that cloud computing may not be suited to the 12 furlongs of the belmont.In addition hes from saratoga and said he would love to win that race with CC.

Grits
05-24-2017, 11:35 AM
chad brown stated to the little guy on sunday that the goal is the travers and that cloud computing may not be suited to the 12 furlongs of the belmont.In addition hes from saratoga and said he would love to win that race with CC.

I'm sorry but you're wrong. Chad is not from Saratoga Springs. He is from Mechanicville, a small town a few miles north in Saratoga County. He's gone to the racetrack from childhood, as early as toddler age when he was in a baby stroller. He and his brother, Todd. .... The reason I know these things? His parents (Jerry and Patti) are longtime friends and I'm always glad to see the family every summer.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 12:09 PM
chad brown stated to the little guy on sunday that the goal is the travers and that cloud computing may not be suited to the 12 furlongs of the belmont.In addition hes from saratoga and said he would love to win that race with CC.
Seems like a bit of a convenient smokescreen. Just because Brown is from Saratoga County and wants to win a race at the end of August doesn't justify skipping a chance at winning 2/3rds of the Triple Crown in early June.

Going from a one turn maiden special weight to the Wood Memorial in 2 months is more of a leap for a horse than going from the Preakness to the Belmont.

sour grapes
05-24-2017, 12:37 PM
why a smokescreen?he doesnt think cc can get the distance so why no have a fresh horse for the 2nd half of the season.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 12:37 PM
Read today that Hollywood Handsome trained by Dallas Stewart, Fipke Owner/Breeder is a possibility.
Dallas Stewart's record in the Belmont is the exact opposite of Woody Stephens' record in the Belmont.

If Hollywood Handsome runs and finishes last I think he will be on track to duplicate Stephens' 5 straight Belmont...in reverse.

Fager Fan
05-24-2017, 01:06 PM
chad brown stated to the little guy on sunday that the goal is the travers and that cloud computing may not be suited to the 12 furlongs of the belmont.In addition hes from saratoga and said he would love to win that race with CC.

why a smokescreen?he doesnt think cc can get the distance so why no have a fresh horse for the 2nd half of the season.

Just which Triple Crown race winners did we all assume were best at 1 1/2 miles? If the horse won strongly at 1 1/4 miles or approximate, then I see no reason to think that horse is one who has proven it wants no part of one and a half miles. In fact, I guess none of the horses should go in the Belmont since there's no reason to think any of them will be best at 1 1/2 miles. After all the best ones I've already lost going shorter .

There's no way I'm going to be supportive of a Tc race winner skipping the last leg for no physical reason. Whoever was asking, Curlin and Hard Spun ran in all three, then the Haskell, then a race on Travers weekend, been up wrap, then the Breeders' Cup. Let's not pretend all horses or wussies. When you're healthy horses and prove you should send your mayor to them when their stallion.

Fager Fan
05-24-2017, 01:09 PM
I'm sorry but you're wrong. Chad is not from Saratoga Springs. He is from Mechanicville, a small town a few miles north in Saratoga County. He's gone to the racetrack from childhood, as early as toddler age when he was in a baby stroller. He and his brother, Todd. .... The reason I know these things? His parents (Jerry and Patti) are longtime friends and I'm always glad to see the family every summer.

That's being picky. Close enough.

Grits
05-24-2017, 01:34 PM
That's being picky. Close enough.

I didn't write this for the sake of being picky. Not at all.

You haven't any knowledge whatsoever of how truly proud or just how supportive the small town of Mechanicville is, and has been, since he won his first races. This means a lot to this community of about 6,000 residents.

I'm not going to respond further. Other than to say I know of what I speak. Otherwise, I wouldn't have written a word.

Dahoss9698
05-24-2017, 01:59 PM
Seems like a bit of a convenient smokescreen. Just because Brown is from Saratoga County and wants to win a race at the end of August doesn't justify skipping a chance at winning 2/3rds of the Triple Crown in early June.

Going from a one turn maiden special weight to the Wood Memorial in 2 months is more of a leap for a horse than going from the Preakness to the Belmont.

I don't agree. I think it's more of a spacing issue. If the Belmont was 5 weeks out I think they'd be strongly considering it. It's the 3 weeks that probably has them apprehensive.

Thats the game today unfortunately.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 02:12 PM
why a smokescreen?he doesnt think cc can get the distance so why no have a fresh horse for the 2nd half of the season.
I would argue that the horse would be "fresh" for the 2nd half even if he ran in the Belmont. He was coming off a 6 week break prior to the Preakness and was considered a "fresh" horse for that race.

Curlin, Summer Bird, Tiago, Royal Assault, Medaglia D'Oro, Like A Hero, Denver, Rock Hard Ten, and A.P. Arrow all ran in the Belmont despite making their career debuts at 3 and all did fine in the second half of the year. Paynter, another late bloomer, won the Haskell, then was seriously ill just days after that win but I wouldn't blame that on the fact that he ran in the Belmont (which he nearly won). Street Life, trained by Chad Brown, also ran in the Belmont (4th in 2012)) after just a handful of starts, and came back and won the Curlin in the summer. He then broke down in the Travers, so perhaps Brown has that in the back of his mind and figures the start in the Belmont had something to do with it.

As far as distance goes, it doesn't appear that any can pointing for the race can really stay the 12f. Cloud Computing's running style seems suited to the race--he has a bit of pace and can finish.

Pedigreewise, Maclean's Music is by a stallion that has already sired a Belmont winner (Drosselmeyer). The dam is by Belmont winner A.P. Indy, who has sired a Belmont winner and several Belmont runner-ups. He is also the paternal grandsire of Tapit who has sired 2 of the last 3 Belmont winners (and sired a place horse and show horse in the at short time frame as well). A.P. Indy's descendants literarily litter the top 3 spots of the Belmont Stakes in its recent history.

In addition, the second dam was a stout 2-turn Grade 1 racemare sired by the great East Coast stalwart Waquoit, who won 12f races as a matter of routine in the 1980s.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 02:24 PM
I don't agree. I think it's more of a spacing issue. If the Belmont was 5 weeks out I think they'd be strongly considering it. It's the 3 weeks that probably has them apprehensive.
Spacing wasn't an issue going from a 6f maiden to the Gotham or from the Gotham to the Wood. And, IIRC, he was on the fence for the Kentucky Derby but was ultimately thwarted by the silly points system. That would have been an intense regimen to say the least.

I guess you could say that despite having no reservations about pushing the horse to the classics earlier in the season, his connections now are thinking they might be cashing one check too many on the horse's account. Or maybe its more of a superstitious thing after the the whole Street Life debacle.

Thats the game today unfortunately.
That's the game if you are Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher. Not so for Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen, Mark Casse, Dale Romans, Jerry Hollendorfer, Lukas, etc.

Dahoss9698
05-24-2017, 04:14 PM
Spacing wasn't an issue going from a 6f maiden to the Gotham or from the Gotham to the Wood. And, IIRC, he was on the fence for the Kentucky Derby but was ultimately thwarted by the silly points system. That would have been an intense regimen to say the least.

I guess you could say that despite having no reservations about pushing the horse to the classics earlier in the season, his connections now are thinking they might be cashing one check too many on the horse's account. Or maybe its more of a superstitious thing after the the whole Street Life debacle.


That's the game if you are Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher. Not so for Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen, Mark Casse, Dale Romans, Jerry Hollendorfer, Lukas, etc.

It was 5 weeks from the Gotham to the Wood. I imagine that's why spacing wasn't an issue.

Robert Fischer
05-24-2017, 04:26 PM
The Belmont doesn't have the risk/reward dynamics that some of these other races do, in respect to the campaign goals, or the goals of continuing a thrive&space schedule, or the goals of breeding.

When you look at those risk/rewards, you can see why trainers often choose to rest a grade 1 stakes horse for the summer.

Why risk the unconventional Belmont with a horse that can win the Travers?

Wait a couple/few weeks and run your same race, in the Jim Dandy or the Haskell.

There aren't extra points for difficulty.

If you are a Senior Investment or a Tapwrit, you probably aren't winning the Travers or the Jim Dandy or the Haskell. You have a good shot in the Belmont. The risk/reward is different. These guys are fans, but they are businessmen and trainers first.

It's like Javy jumping off Gunnevera. Doesn't mean he doesn't like the horse or Sano.

Have to consider their perspective.

Let's hope Classic Empire stays in. Coolmore deal was announced 5/22.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 04:42 PM
It was 5 weeks from the Gotham to the Wood. I imagine that's why spacing wasn't an issue.
That's like saying Chad Brown isn't from Saratoga because he grew up in Mechanicville...

Seriously though, the crux of the argument was that he went from a 6f MSW to the 9f Wood Memorial in less than 2 months. And that was with a taxing effort in the Gotham in between.

I can buy into the reasoning that the horse has physical issues--he didn't run at 2 for a reason--but if the truth is that horse is in good shape and they are simply waiting for the Travers just because then it's a fairly bad sign for the sport.

The Belmont Stakes is one of the most important races on the calendar, obviously has historical prestige as part of the Triple Crown, and imparts a significant amount of value to the winner as a breeding animal. In fact, the Belmont has been a fairly good producer of top stallions (something that is falsely attributed to the Met Mile for some reason), which in the end is the main justification for running classics races (or any races) in the first place--to improve the breed...i.e., identifying the best in the crop for stud purposes.

To justify skipping the race because of "spacing" is like a knife to the heart of the Belmont Stakes and from a larger standpoint is yet another wound to a sport that is approaching death due to a thousand cuts.

Of course, Cloud Computing is by a horse that made a single start in a 6f maiden before calling it a day so its pretty clear those types of ideals were out the window a while ago...

Dahoss9698
05-24-2017, 04:59 PM
Thanks like saying Chad Brown isn't from Saratoga because he grew up in Mechanicville...

Seriously though, the crux of the argument was that he went from a 6f MSW to the 9f Wood Memorial in less than 2 months. And that was with a taxing effort in the Gotham in between.

I can buy into the reasoning that the horse has physical issues--he didn't run at 2 for a reason--but if the truth is that horse is in good shape and they are simply waiting for the Travers just because then it's a fairly bad sign for the sport.

The Belmont Stakes is one of the most important races on the calendar, obviously has historical prestige as part of the Triple Crown, and imparts a significant amount of value to the winner as a breeding animal. In fact, the Belmont has been a fairly good producer of top stallions (something that is falsely attributed to the Met Mile for some reason), which in the end is the main justification for running classics races (or any races) in the first place--to improve the breed...i.e., identifying the best in the crop for stud purposes.

To justify skipping the race because of "spacing" is like a knife to the heart of the Belmont Stakes and from a larger standpoint is yet another wound to a sport that is approaching death due to a thousand cuts.

Of course, Cloud Computing is by a horse that made a single start in a 6f maiden before calling it a day so its pretty clear those types of ideals were out the window a while ago...
Of course it's a bad sign for the sport. It's one of many we see everyday. You said it yourself, he didn't race at 2 for a reason. The Belmont doesn't hold the prestige it once did.

I think they'd rather play it safe, give him some time and aim for a summer/fall campaign now that they've got a grade 1 with him. For the sport it sucks, but again when so few trainers have so many horses this is what we're left with sometimes.

cj
05-24-2017, 07:01 PM
That's like saying Chad Brown isn't from Saratoga because he grew up in Mechanicville...

Seriously though, the crux of the argument was that he went from a 6f MSW to the 9f Wood Memorial in less than 2 months. And that was with a taxing effort in the Gotham in between.

I can buy into the reasoning that the horse has physical issues--he didn't run at 2 for a reason--but if the truth is that horse is in good shape and they are simply waiting for the Travers just because then it's a fairly bad sign for the sport.

The Belmont Stakes is one of the most important races on the calendar, obviously has historical prestige as part of the Triple Crown, and imparts a significant amount of value to the winner as a breeding animal. In fact, the Belmont has been a fairly good producer of top stallions (something that is falsely attributed to the Met Mile for some reason), which in the end is the main justification for running classics races (or any races) in the first place--to improve the breed...i.e., identifying the best in the crop for stud purposes.

To justify skipping the race because of "spacing" is like a knife to the heart of the Belmont Stakes and from a larger standpoint is yet another wound to a sport that is approaching death due to a thousand cuts.

Of course, Cloud Computing is by a horse that made a single start in a 6f maiden before calling it a day so its pretty clear those types of ideals were out the window a while ago...

I still remember Normandy Invasion skipping the Preakness for no real reason. That didn't work out very well. I realize it isn't the same thing since he didn't win the Derby, but he would have been one of the top betting choices.

Fager Fan
05-24-2017, 07:27 PM
I still remember Normandy Invasion skipping the Preakness for no real reason. That didn't work out very well. I realize it isn't the same thing since he didn't win the Derby, but he would have been one of the top betting choices.

Porter said there was a debate about even running in the Derby because the horse supposedly lost about 200 pounds between the Wood and Derby. Now that the Derby was done, and he didn't win, they wanted to get him back into the condition he should've been in instead of racing back in 2 weeks and losing more condition.

I don't remember what happened after that (did another problem crop up?), but you're right in that he never lived up to the hope his Derby inspired.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 07:45 PM
I still remember Normandy Invasion skipping the Preakness for no real reason. That didn't work out very well. I realize it isn't the same thing since he didn't win the Derby, but he would have been one of the top betting choices.
...and just think, had they struck while the iron was hot and won one of the classics with Normandy Invasion, a son of uber-sire Tapit, the horse would be standing at Lane's End or Claiborne for over $50K, but instead he's a non-stakes winner standing for not even a tenth of that somewhere in upstate NY (I have know idea if it's near Saratoga Springs or Mechanicville).

From the sound of it though, Normandy Invasion was a horse not easily kept together for whatever reason. That could be the deal with Cloud Computing, too.

Whatever it is, this "5 weeks" trend is pretty much ruining the Triple Crown. This is just one more instance. I won't even begin to rail against the knuckleheads who run in the Derby and skip the Preakness year in and year out.

I'm with whoever suggested bringing back the $1 million bonus points thingy from the 1980s. Or maybe Stronach can forego a couple of million from the Pegasus debacle and put his own bonus between the Derby and Preakness. Let's not forget, the Preakness field this year was rather ho-hum itself and didn't appear to be particularly contentious for those of us who forgot that Todd Pletcher was the trainer of Always Dreaming.

Spalding No!
05-24-2017, 08:01 PM
I don't remember what happened after that (did another problem crop up?), but you're right in that he never lived up to the hope his Derby inspired.
The connections of Normandy Invasion opted out of the Preakness less than a week before the race saying they were "being conservative; no other reason he couldn't run back".

They kept harping on having a "fresh" horse for the Travers and then ironically had to back off in July because of a rotten hoof (supposedly). Even then, he was still being targeted for the Pennsylvania Derby. However, the wheels really must have come off at that stage because he got the ole' "sent to Winstar Farm" therapy--never a good sign.

Fager Fan
05-24-2017, 08:55 PM
The connections of Normandy Invasion opted out of the Preakness less than a week before the race saying they were "being conservative; no other reason he couldn't run back".

They kept harping on having a "fresh" horse for the Travers and then ironically had to back off in July because of a rotten hoof (supposedly). Even then, he was still being targeted for the Pennsylvania Derby. However, the wheels really must have come off at that stage because he got the ole' "sent to Winstar Farm" therapy--never a good sign.

I knew I heard the issue with the weight, so went googling.

DRF article:

“Winning the Preakness would be great; running second or third wouldn’t do us any good at all,” Porter said. “And it might not be any good for the horse. The risk/reward [factor] is what it came down to. I said the risk/reward in the Preakness doesn’t make any sense. We need to give the horse time off; let’s get some weight back on him.”

SI article:

"He's training well and eating well," Porter said of the fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby. "Everything is fine with the horse. The two weeks is a little quick coming back. He needs to put some weight back on, so we decided to wait."

I can't find where the weight loss was more exact, but I know I read somewhere that it was 200 or 250 pounds, which isn't just a little light but instead bad condition. It may've been on Porter's website.

Reading more I see that it was a foot abscess that struck next.