Wednesday @ The Spa

[Bubbles]

I'm going to be concentrating on Pick 3's and Daily Doubles more than one-race bets for the rest of the meet. I find I can pick winners, but it's picking horses to run second and third that gives me trouble. :confused:

Here goes...

Race One: Steeplechase. Toss.

Race Two: GAIL'S DRIVE (#4, 5/2): Won at this level last out at Belmont. Works are solid, and might be a bit of an overlay coming off a ten-week freshening.

Race Three: CHIEF COMMANDER (#3, 10-1(!!!)): This son of Deputy Commander has been working very well in the mornings. That five-furlong breeze from the gates on 7/26 in 1:01 1/5 looks solid, and will be a price if the morning-line holds up.

Race Four: UMA NORMA (#6, 6-1): Won very impressively at Calder last out in a fast time. Picks up four pounds in weight off the effort, but if she is true to form, she should be able to best these.

Race Five: HOLIDAY LADY (#2, 3-1): Just doesn't run a bad race. Won a seven-furlong allowance last out, and she should be able to stretch out effectively for trainer Nick Zito.

Race Six: PLENTY (#10, 5/2): Will probably be a major chalk after two major efforts and a positive jockey switch (Luzzi to Bailey). Probably won't go off at much more than even-money, so value-seekers should probably skip this race.

Race Seven: VICARAGE (#1, 2-1): Was impressive breaking his maiden at first asking. Velasquez and Pletcher are together on this ML chalk; 10-1 double probably won't pay $10.

Race Eight: WEST VIRGINIA (#4, 8/5, BEST BET): Toss his Mike Lee effort, he was coming in off a layoff and was wide throughout at a distance he did not prefer. Speedy one appears to be the best bet of the day in the Wednesday feature.

Race Nine: CONFIDENT CAT (#11, 3-1): Has been out since October, but his worktab of late has been very impressive. Gets Prado, and clearly relishes the green stuff; top pick in this wacky finale.

[Bubbles]

*bump*

[TravisVOX]

Nick Zito has 8 wins from 186 starts with 2YO's in the past five years. His results get gradually better approaching this year, but nothing great overall. Birdstone, The Cliff's Edge are among his winners last year. Is this one of those?

STORIED CAT breaks from the outside, holds a conditioning edge with the race and workouts for the tough debut distance of 6.5 furlongs. He exits a live race and Bailey climbs aboard. I'll take 5/2 on this horse, I feel lower than that works him into underlay status.

[Bubbles]

I like Storied Cat to run second, and on a muddy track, he'll run a big one. But he's never worked over a fast track up here, all fast-track works have been at Chruchill. If the odds are low, I'll bet against him.

[OTM Al]

Had no book to read on the trip home today, so I decided to cap the whole field as you did and see what I come up with

Race 1: Agreed, toss. They ought to make the jockeys jump the hurdles with the horse on their back. Hell, I'd bet on it then :)

Race 2: #3 Connie's Magic. His record on the track is superb and this really seems to be his proper level at this point in his career--the 3/21 race. The two off the freshener are tosses being on the slop, but his last has a really nice look to it. Would spread with #6 and #2

Race 3: #9 Storied Cat. Several factors here. Great Tomlinsons, only experience in the field, and outstanding works. Would single, but will throw in the 1a if he runs.

Race 4: #4 Morebella. Her placement for the stretch run is right on the pace and very consistant, something I always look for on the turf, Since it is turf, would definitely back with 6 and 10 for much the same reasons.


Race 5: #5 Daydreaming. Like the back class on this one. She's taken on the best in her division and done, not great, but pretty ok. Would back with 3 and 6. Very much against the 2 unless it is wet and track is favoring front runners. In that cas she could shake lose and not be caught, but I think she gets run down on a dry track.

Race 6: #10 Plenty. Hey,we agree on this one!!!! This one can wire this race and being a turfer, that says something. Also being turf though, I would be inclined to spread out with the 3 (Dickinson and an Elusive Quality progeny, which means a bit more on turf than dirt to me), 4 (always in the mix at the end), and the 7 (same as 4)

Race 7: #1 Vicarage. Two in a row, scary. Tough post, but like the run he put on in his maiden win. That 7/30 work is very nice too. Will back with the 3 (like the works there too) and the bomber of the day the 7. What is he talking about this 7 you might say....well, Ganpath on a Jerkens horse is a sneaky strong combination. This combo hits with some real bombs and I've learned to always put it on a ticket. Good chance they'll finish dead last but I've got to say those works don't match his record.

Race 8: #4 West Virginia. Three in a row...now I'm worried :) This guy is the class 3yo state runner. Will back with the 1a (he got WV before and still has it in him)

Race 9: #3 Dixie Baghdad. This is a very open race. Just like his response to turf (in an open maiden, not a state bred) in his last and his recent works. Definitely back with 9 and 11 though.

Well, I think we probably agree more often than not. Good luck. Would much rather be there betting on races than at work tomorrow...grumble grumble

[Bubbles]

Lead story on WRGB news:

"Claps of thunder heard in the Capital District"

With that, most picks change with a possible off-track...

RACE TWO: ACT OF REFORM (#6, 3-1): Just missed in first start off a layoff, and will only improve here. Has hit the board in five of six starts in off-going, so you know he can handle mud.

RACE THREE: Lots of good horses here. Box PAT'S CAT (#5, 8-1), TANI MARU (#8, 10-1), and STORIED CAT (#9, 3-1)

RACE FOUR: Crapshoot. Skip.

RACE FIVE: Still like HOLIDAY LADY (#2, 3-1), she's hit the board in every start on off going.

RACE SIX: See Race Four.

RACE SEVEN: RAISE OLE GLORY (#3, 3-1, BEST BET): Doesn't know any track but a wet one. Toss his last, he's better than that. Bailey/Lukas combo can be dangerous.

RACE EIGHT: Still like WEST VIRGINIA (#4, 8/5). Has never been beaten on an off-track, and is the class of this NY-bred field.

RACE NINE: Still like CONFIDENT CAT (#11, 3-1), but watch out for DIXIE BOURBON (#3, 8-1). Both have decent works on wet turf, and this field is just nuts. Key those two.

[TriSuper]

My Pick Four play...

6th- Plenty has to be included. I like Flashdance Missy in here quite a bit. Toner is 2/2 and his barn looks ready.

7th- Storm Surge and Wild Nature look like the ones to beat.

8th- West Virginia is my bet against. I'll use Pay Attention who ran within a nose of the favorite this past April and Chowder's First has faced the favorite twice and ran okay.

9th- Wide open contest. I can't see myself betting Confident Cat if the race stays on the grass. Using 4 horses in here if race remains on the turf.... 1,3,7 and 10. Dixie Baghdad has been training well on the SPA grass and would be my top pick.

My Saratoga racing blog (http://spa-racing.blogspot.com/)

[lefthandlow]

hey tri arn't you PARLAY_PETE???? How come no bias days??LL

[Bubbles]

Missed the late Pick 4 AND Pick 3 by the length of a head. Honestly thought West Virginia could not be beaten. But not. Another day, another step closer to Chapter 11. ;)

[TriSuper]

Well as the song goes.....3 out of 4 ain't bad.

But it ain't good when you have a Pick Four wager. Collected on the Pick Three but would have had a signer had the 2nd place horse got up to beat Confident Cat in the finale.

Took a stand against the winner in the 9th and got burnt going for the huge ticket instead of a nice ticket.

Oh well, some day my ship will come in, or, on the otherhand it may sink by then.