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Blenheim
05-21-2017, 12:58 PM
Trainer Todd Pletcher commenting after the race . . .

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221696/cloud-computing-leaves-pimlico-others-thinking-belmont


The Dean of Handicapping Tom Ainslie explained what happened some 50 years ago, no doubt Todd really knows the answer, maybe just didn't want to discuss it.

Here is what Ainslie wrote, in full:

Cheap Horses Know It

After the races are stretched to six furlongs, and especially after the animals have turned three, the horses with the fastest previous time at the distance is no longer a copper-riveted certainty to be the one with the fastest potential at the distance. When it faces a genuinely superior thoroughbred, it invariably loses in slower time that it has recorded in the past.

Horsemen are so accustomed to this phenomenon that they seldom even discuss it. A 5k horse able to get the half-mile in .45 and the six furlongs in 1:10 when racing with utmost courage against its own kind has not a prayer of equaling those figures against an allowance runner which may never have done better than .454/5 and 1:102/5.

Invariably and inevitably, the class horse prevails. Whether on the backstretch, on the turn, or in the homestretch, the better horse makes a run, easily overtakes the speedster, keeps pace with it for several strides and pulls ahead with little effort. During those few moments, the cheaper horse gets the message. It acknowledges its own inferiority and gives up. The better horse wins, perhaps in 1:104/5. It will not run the three quarters in the 1:091/5 of which it is capable until challenged by an animal more nearly its match.

It is unnecessary to become mystical about the ease with which a class horse trounces its inferiors, the authority with which it bullies them into running more slowly than usual, the “knowledge” they seem to display in promptly accepting defeat by a superior. Students of animal intelligence and animal psychology would not be surprised by this, and would find nothing mystical in it. Every known species of bird, fish and mammal has its own social order in which physical superiority wins privileges.

Thoroughbred horses, whose function in life is to run, evidently establish their own social order in the process of running. How? Horsemen agree that animals of higher class possess greater reservoirs of racing energy. They can turn on the speed at will, or whenever the rider asks for it and they can maintain the speed for as long as may be necessary to demonstrate the prowess that discourages a lesser rival. In most cases, it does not take long. The inferior horse hoists the white flag. Whereupon the good horse relaxes into a less taxing stride and ambles home as he pleases.

This curious physical and psychological dominance of higher-quality thoroughbreds over lower is misinterpreted by many players and more than a few horsemen. Having noticed that the good horse beats the cheap one in slower time than the cheapie has run in the past, they conclude that time is irrelevant to the handicapping of races.

They overlook the fact that the speed potential of most horses is thoroughly tested long before the end of the three-year-old season. Except for out-and-out champions, virtually all horses aged four or more have shown repeatedly what they can do in the speed department when subjected to the extremely accurate test of races against their own kind. In such races, they are obliged to run as fast as they can.

~

What was so terribly interesting in this particular case was how Always Dreaming "gave up . . . hoisted the white flag", so dramatically. Unfortunately, class and condition are subject to pace and as we all know, pace makes the race.

Lookin' forward to the Belmont Stakes!

:11:

CincyHorseplayer
05-21-2017, 01:04 PM
Too much. Too soon. I was 1 race too late!

dilanesp
05-21-2017, 01:06 PM
NBC caught a really great shot of Pletcher scratching his head right after the race.

outofthebox
05-21-2017, 05:38 PM
I like his comment in his pre race interview, when he was asked how much did the Ky Derby win take out of his horse? His answer was " we'll find out at the 1/4 pole. And we did...

nancy4487
05-22-2017, 09:54 PM
Thank you for this posting. Similar to Kerry Thomas studying the herd instinct of race horses. I work with horses and ordered the book you quoted from. Interesting read-and I need a good book!

jocko699
05-22-2017, 10:08 PM
Trainer Todd Pletcher commenting after the race . . .

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221696/cloud-computing-leaves-pimlico-others-thinking-belmont


The Dean of Handicapping Tom Ainslie explained what happened some 50 years ago, no doubt Todd really knows the answer, maybe just didn't want to discuss it.

Here is what Ainslie wrote, in full:

Cheap Horses Know It

After the races are stretched to six furlongs, and especially after the animals have turned three, the horses with the fastest previous time at the distance is no longer a copper-riveted certainty to be the one with the fastest potential at the distance. When it faces a genuinely superior thoroughbred, it invariably loses in slower time that it has recorded in the past.

Horsemen are so accustomed to this phenomenon that they seldom even discuss it. A 5k horse able to get the half-mile in .45 and the six furlongs in 1:10 when racing with utmost courage against its own kind has not a prayer of equaling those figures against an allowance runner which may never have done better than .454/5 and 1:102/5.

Invariably and inevitably, the class horse prevails. Whether on the backstretch, on the turn, or in the homestretch, the better horse makes a run, easily overtakes the speedster, keeps pace with it for several strides and pulls ahead with little effort. During those few moments, the cheaper horse gets the message. It acknowledges its own inferiority and gives up. The better horse wins, perhaps in 1:104/5. It will not run the three quarters in the 1:091/5 of which it is capable until challenged by an animal more nearly its match.

It is unnecessary to become mystical about the ease with which a class horse trounces its inferiors, the authority with which it bullies them into running more slowly than usual, the “knowledge” they seem to display in promptly accepting defeat by a superior. Students of animal intelligence and animal psychology would not be surprised by this, and would find nothing mystical in it. Every known species of bird, fish and mammal has its own social order in which physical superiority wins privileges.

Thoroughbred horses, whose function in life is to run, evidently establish their own social order in the process of running. How? Horsemen agree that animals of higher class possess greater reservoirs of racing energy. They can turn on the speed at will, or whenever the rider asks for it and they can maintain the speed for as long as may be necessary to demonstrate the prowess that discourages a lesser rival. In most cases, it does not take long. The inferior horse hoists the white flag. Whereupon the good horse relaxes into a less taxing stride and ambles home as he pleases.

This curious physical and psychological dominance of higher-quality thoroughbreds over lower is misinterpreted by many players and more than a few horsemen. Having noticed that the good horse beats the cheap one in slower time than the cheapie has run in the past, they conclude that time is irrelevant to the handicapping of races.

They overlook the fact that the speed potential of most horses is thoroughly tested long before the end of the three-year-old season. Except for out-and-out champions, virtually all horses aged four or more have shown repeatedly what they can do in the speed department when subjected to the extremely accurate test of races against their own kind. In such races, they are obliged to run as fast as they can.

~

What was so terribly interesting in this particular case was how Always Dreaming "gave up . . . hoisted the white flag", so dramatically. Unfortunately, class and condition are subject to pace and as we all know, pace makes the race.

Lookin' forward to the Belmont Stakes!

:11:

Thank you for posting this. While I agree it was dramatic I felt it was also expected.

Mulerider
05-22-2017, 11:42 PM
Ainslie: Thoroughbred horses, whose function in life is to run, evidently establish their own social order in the process of running. How? Horsemen agree that animals of higher class possess greater reservoirs of racing energy. They can turn on the speed at will, or whenever the rider asks for it and they can maintain the speed for as long as may be necessary to demonstrate the prowess that discourages a lesser rival. In most cases, it does not take long. The inferior horse hoists the white flag. Whereupon the good horse relaxes into a less taxing stride and ambles home as he pleases.



I have always had a soft spot for those horses that are not intimidated by a superior talent, and give it 100% every race, never hoisting the white flag even when confronted by a faster horse. Gun Runner comes to mind as a recent example.

Mule

Fager Fan
05-22-2017, 11:55 PM
Thank you for this posting. Similar to Kerry Thomas studying the herd instinct of race horses. I work with horses and ordered the book you quoted from. Interesting read-and I need a good book!

Kerry Thomas strikes me as ridiculous. He makes a lot of assumptions about horses he knows very little about.

So who was his pick to win the Derby this year?

Blenheim
05-23-2017, 11:08 AM
Here are some additional comments from Pletcher I found in my local newspaper . . .

~

Almost immediately after the Derby, Pletcher spoke about how impressively his horse rebounded from the difficult race [Kentucky Derby]. He maintained that tune each day and even joked about how rambunctious Always Dreaming was during a spirited workout at Pimlico.

Then, on the day before the race, Pletcher declared: "The way he's moving, the way he's acting, the way he's getting over the track, we feel really blessed that he's coming into the race this way."

Turns out, Always Dreaming really wasn't ready for such a quick turnaround.

"He didn't seem to relish the track, but I don't really think that was it," Pletcher said. "Just put too much into the Derby. It wasn't meant to be today."

~

A quick review of the Bris pace and speed rating suggests the horse throttled back: E1 98; E2 98; LP 91 - 1c +8; 2c -2, and a video review shows Johnny V, takin' a peek back and tuckin' the whip away, so its kinda hard to accept Mr. Pletcher's comments "Just too much in the Derby."

I don't have any doubt this seasoned Hall of Fame Eclipse winning horseman really knows what happened, just difficult for him to say AD was outclassed by a better horse - politics n'all, kinda makes it difficult . . . as truthful comments can damage the relationships between trainer, owners and breeders not to mention the future stud value of the horse.

If these two ever meet again, CE and AD, AD will not forget CE, and CE will not forget AD and in a fairly run race, CE will always best AD. All things considered, it was a fun race to watch, them two hookin' up like that right from the start, made for good hoss' racin! :ThmbUp:

Thanks for your nice feedback, I try to make my posts meaningful.

:11:

AirNate012
05-23-2017, 11:12 AM
Kerry Thomas strikes me as ridiculous. He makes a lot of assumptions about horses he knows very little about.

So who was his pick to win the Derby this year?

Considering Kerry Thomas has had the winner in his top 2 horses since he began his analysis (including Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another), I'd say what he does is far from ridiculous. His top horse for the Derby this year was Always Dreaming.

Fager Fan
05-23-2017, 01:57 PM
Considering Kerry Thomas has had the winner in his top 2 horses since he began his analysis (including Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another), I'd say what he does is far from ridiculous. His top horse for the Derby this year was Always Dreaming.

Because his "herd dynamic" proves AD is a dominant horse who'd fight to maintain that lead?

AirNate012
05-24-2017, 04:32 PM
Because his "herd dynamic" proves AD is a dominant horse who'd fight to maintain that lead?

Here you can read the full analysis for yourself.

http://www.thtbloodstock.com/THT_PatternsOfMotion_KD143.pdf

burnsy
05-26-2017, 10:43 PM
Its really simple with horses like this. Either he was tired or it wasn't his day. People forget so fast. A couple of years ago Bayern would run the same pattern. Then he won the BC Classic. You let a horse like that get an easy rhythm and he won't come back. You push him to the limit and he throws out the anchor. The pace is always the race and it gets the best of them, I saw a Triple Crown winner lose the Travers . Its hard to win them all when you are the bulls eye.

señorclipclop
05-27-2017, 03:56 AM
I think it's most likely we never see Always Dreaming race again.

outofthebox
05-30-2017, 04:57 PM
I think it's most likely we never see Always Dreaming race again.He is owned by a combination of stables that love to run. I would think Dandy or Haskell next stop..

señorclipclop
05-31-2017, 12:22 AM
He is owned by a combination of stables that love to run. I would think Dandy or Haskell next stop..

That would be a welcome change from the Pletcher porcelain factory.