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Gerard02
05-21-2017, 06:59 AM
Being the new guy here, let me be the first to congratulate the ones here who picked Cloud Computing. Also, good call on the race itself. There were some here who said AD would get wiped off the planet in a speed duel with CE. They were right. I was a thumbs nail close to killin my bets as I watched AD in the post parade. Something was not right. CE looked all business, and that's why I stuck around. Also, scared money never wins.

Pletcher made a big mistake sending AD into a duel with CE. While the fractions were a bit slower than the Derby, a speed duel is a speed duel. We proved one thing. AD cannot take and hold the lead like AP did in 2015. This race blew my figs out of the water. At least, for AD and Lookin at Lee. CE was spot on, even though he lost. He showed he's got guts and fought back as CC drew alongside. It's obvious the battle with AD set him up for the loss. Still, we know who has balls now. AD is just a dream, now.

Going back to my data, Cloud Computing had good final fractions. However, I learned that good final fractions mean nothing when up against big class. Since, CC couldn't beat IWC, I figured he would be third, at best. My big mistake. I was going to change my tactic up a bit and box CE with the field for the exacta, but I only had so much money and it was to late to start thinking changing stuff. I stuck to my guns.

Still, that's horse racing. In the end, you win or lose. On to the Belmont and redemption. Let's see what we get. :headbanger:

n.c
05-21-2017, 08:27 AM
before the Ark Derby- he said CE is ready and CE won
Preakness- he mentioned that he has the best horse and he will go after AD while Pletcher was silent. CE ran a great race and finished second, beating AD in a duel.

World Approval- race 12- Again Casse said horse is doing great and it will run a great race- world Approval won...

Going to keep an eye on Casse quotes in the future.

burnsy
05-21-2017, 09:40 AM
before the Ark Derby- he said CE is ready and CE won
Preakness- he mentioned that he has the best horse and he will go after AD while Pletcher was silent. CE ran a great race and finished second, beating AD in a duel.

World Approval- race 12- Again Casse said horse is doing great and it will run a great race- world Approval won...

Going to keep an eye on Casse quotes in the future.

World Approval is just a hard knocking, consistent horse. I've been cashing on this horse for three seasons now and he was the highlight of a not so great Preakness Day betting wise for me. I was drunk by 7 pm, a sign I was not doing well.

As for the Preakness, it went kind of like I thought it would with the exception of Cloud Computing winning. It was obvious that someone had to press Always Dreaming and when it was Classic Empire that cost him first place. This left it wide open for a late close, which is exactly what happened. Gotta give Chad Brown props again. Is there anything this guy can't win? Cloud Computing had been beaten soundly in his last two and this trainer gets him to run like that yesterday. The "young gun" is now the master in my book, it just keeps getting better for him. Talk about peaking at the right moment. Can't wait to see the string he brings to Saratoga. Maybe he even has a Travers winner this year. :popcorn:

classhandicapper
05-21-2017, 09:50 AM
Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

arw629
05-21-2017, 09:58 AM
Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

I had no problem with the ride. CE and CC both ran winning races IMO and those two are the ones I want to bet moving forward

burnsy
05-21-2017, 10:04 AM
That's the problem that Classic Empire has, he appears to be the best horse in the race, but continues to find a way to lose. I gotta disagree, Cloud Computing put together a well timed rally. Which I thought would be the winning move after a speed duel. I didn't like the winner but he ran them down fair and square. Class goes to those who finish the fastest.

classhandicapper
05-21-2017, 10:21 AM
I had no problem with the ride. CE and CC both ran winning races IMO and those two are the ones I want to bet moving forward

It wasn't what I would call a dreadful ride because the pace was not savage, but he lost with the best horse and I think it was avoidable.

thaskalos
05-21-2017, 10:33 AM
I wouldn't bet Classic Empire in the Belmont with money that I found on the street.

dilanesp
05-21-2017, 10:57 AM
Contesting a speed duel in a route race is never a great idea. On the other hand, it was a no win situation for CE's connections-- if they didn't contest and AD runs away with the race wire to wire Oxbow style, they would have been criticized for not going out with him (Conquest Mo Money too).

Robert Fischer
05-21-2017, 11:22 AM
I think we got some useful information on the horses.

Always Dreaming showed us his limitations. I hope this guy bounces back as good as new, and does some more racing. Both in terms of health, and his ownership's willingness to campaign him. Always have to wonder, in today's game.

Always Dreaming had never faced adversity in a route race, before the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby he had a tougher race, but not very tough. He had a better trip than everyone other than Lookin At Lee. His tactical speed allowed him to take the initiative. He didn't have to battle other horses in a sloppy mess around a wide trip. I wouldn't have bet State of Honor in the Queen's plate, and at no point was State of Honor or anyone else threatening Always Dreaming's position. It was technically 'adversity', being the Derby and requiring 2 or 3 responses from JV along a more honest pace, but arguably was somewhere along the good-trip to dream-trip continuum.

In the Preakness, Classic Empire threatened Always Dreaming's position, and Always Dreaming crumbled like a styrofoam cooler being smashed on the heads of drunken infielders.

Classic Empire was a huge underlay in the Preakness. His Arkansas Derby race was extremely mediocre. His Kentucky Derby race was probably mediocre. He was being marketed as the rival of Always Dreaming.
I had a bias against Classic Empire, but he was in a select group of alternatives to Always Dreaming, and he ran the best race in the Preakness. His Preakness was good enough, that I have to look back at Classic Empire's Derby with an open mind. He did after all, run the fastest Kentucky Derby, when allowing for ground loss. As much as I dislike a bad value, it's fair to look at Classic Empire and ask whether in a crop with no super horses, if he simply stands among the leaders, and is capable of being the best on any given day. Have to hope he goes to the Belmont Stakes.

Cloud Computing was the best value in the Preakness. He appeared going into the race as the 2nd best horse in the race, to Always Dreaming. Cloud Computing ran a good race, and he happened to win. At least from the early viewings of the race, it seems that he may have been second best(behind Classic Empire), and may have benefited a great deal from the tactics. He was obvious, but it's nice to see horses actually do what they are capable of, and kind of erase the extrapolation, and replace it with reality.

Senior Investment is mildly promising. He looks like a big turf horse, and he contrasted well enough while working alongside Lookin At Lee, that he's earned a little bit of respect.

Lookin At Lee ran his race again. He was a horrible underlay, but he's been an honest race horse. Had to have him for the bottom of the super.

Conquest Mo Money failed to take any initiative, and it didn't help his closing kick at all.

Hence failed to fire again, and it would be a surprise if he were to display graded stakes ability.

Everyone else pretty much ran their race.

Robert Fischer
05-21-2017, 12:02 PM
There's a lot(more than 3) of things that may or may not have happened.

Yes, maybe some perfect, super finesse/high-pressured combination ride could have wilted AD while preserving more horse, all in a perfectly timed move with the command of a drill sergeant and the grace of a ballerina...

Or, maybe the strategy was reasonably sound.

It looked prior to the race, like Always Dreaming would control and kick away as he usually does.
Team Classic Empire took fate into their own hands and it is reasonably likely that they were the factor that wilted Always Dreaming, giving Classic Empire a chance to win the Preakness.
It took one of the top horses to sit a good trip, and then fire, in order to beat Classic Empire by a head.


Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

rsetup
05-21-2017, 12:22 PM
Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.

dilanesp
05-21-2017, 12:26 PM
Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.

If you are referring to me, I am totally willing to cop to the fact that I got the pre-race absolutely wrong. :)

That doesn't mean we can't try to work through the result and learn something.

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2017, 12:49 PM
Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.I'll ask again...do you keep track of the performance of all the picks you make? If you have, where? I haven't seen it...

Maybe you sum it up at the end of the day, I can't remember, but I know you don't provide a running total over all the picks you've posted...until you do, you might want to can the "clueless" talk until we can see whether or not you're one of the clueless yourself.

classhandicapper
05-21-2017, 12:54 PM
I wouldn't bet Classic Empire in the Belmont with money that I found on the street.

I assume that has to do with the distance and not how well he ran yesterday.

rsetup
05-21-2017, 01:00 PM
I'll ask again...do you keep track of the performance of all the picks you make? If you have, where? I haven't seen it...

Maybe you sum it up at the end of the day, I can't remember, but I know you don't provide a running total over all the picks you've posted...until you do, you might want to can the "clueless" talk until we can see whether or not you're one of the clueless yourself.


I realize it all goes back to you. But the context here is the PREAKNESS. I crushed the race and posted before the fact. My BES pick is in your Friday value thread.

Where is Classhandicapper's pick, or the pick of some others that posted on this thread? A recurring theme, perhaps?

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2017, 01:11 PM
Crushing one race doesn't necessarily make you an expert or a winner.

Besides, for all I know, you were just tagging along with Andy's pick.

ReplayRandall
05-21-2017, 01:15 PM
I realize it all goes back to you. But the context here is the PREAKNESS. I crushed the race and posted before the fact. My BES pick is in your Friday value thread.

Where is Classhandicapper's pick, or the pick of some others that posted on this thread? A recurring theme, perhaps?

I'm going out on a limb here, but I must give credit where credit is due. Congrats on a nice call and crushing the Preakness, Rsetup.....I happened to share the same opinion on the winner myself:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2170749&postcount=81

classhandicapper
05-21-2017, 01:15 PM
Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.

A post race analysis of one race IS a pre race analysis of the next race.

I have no problem telling you my thoughts AGAIN considering I wrote about 5 posts worth of Derby post race analysis and we even discussed it.

I thought Always Dreaming was the most likely winner of the Preakness, but I was unsure how good he was. He put away all the other speeds in a fast pace in the Derby, but given that Battle of Midway hung around also it appeared to me that a lot of the quality closers were disadvantaged by ground loss and mud.

I thought the horse for him to beat out that race was Classic Empire who lost position at the start and more ground than any of the closers he had already beaten in the Derby.

I bet Conquest Mo Money because I thought he was better than Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. He did most of the dirty work up front in a race I rated as favoring closers. So My feeling was that at 10-1 he probably fit well enough with Classic Empire to get a piece and I could use him. He did not run as well as I expected.

I thought Cloud Computing was better than he looked on paper off the Wood because he got away a length slow, raced wide, and made up ground on a day I made as favoring inside speed. But I did not think that performance was good enough to get the win yesterday. I still don't. I think he's a lightly raced horse that was better than he looked but he also jumped up for a great trainer over the last 6 weeks and got a good setup yesterday. That's my pre race analysis for him next time. He's good and getting better, but was not best yesterday.

You made an excellent pick, but there is nothing wrong with analyzing races after they are run. I do it privately and publicly. That's how you find your next bet.

dilanesp
05-21-2017, 01:18 PM
I realize it all goes back to you. But the context here is the PREAKNESS. I crushed the race and posted before the fact. My BES pick is in your Friday value thread.

Where is Classhandicapper's pick, or the pick of some others that posted on this thread? A recurring theme, perhaps?

Last year, I crushed the Preakness hard, and made a number of posts where I argued with people who threw out Exaggerator for various specious reasons.

That didn't make me a Preakness expert, as this year's renewal illustrated. :)

Robert Fischer
05-21-2017, 01:22 PM
Rsetup called the Preakness down to the script of the tactics.

Can't do anything better than that. Hats off to him.

dilanesp
05-21-2017, 01:57 PM
Rsetup called the Preakness down to the script of the tactics.

Can't do anything better than that. Hats off to him.

Absolutely.

Bullet Plane
05-21-2017, 01:59 PM
Well...


Jim Dunleavy in the DRF picked Cloud Computing.

Andy Serling had him.

If you read the Sheets Bulletin Board, a handicapper there picked him.

Just do a little reading, plenty of experts picked the horse.

I give no "copy cat" on this board or any other.

any kudo's for copy cat picks.

Matter of fact, it makes me more than a little angry.

It is the equivalent of trolling.

Please kick all the damn useless trolls off the board!!!!

Question?

This troll isn't Vic Stauffer, or is he?

Robert Fischer
05-21-2017, 03:03 PM
After posting here for a while, it's pretty clear that the poster Rsetup was high on this horse for reasons that align with his personal philosophy of modeling and analyzing races.

If you aren't aware of that, at least give him credit for copying the correct 'experts'. Handicapping those guys is at least as hard as handicapping a horse race with 3 or 4 logicals.

I have no problem admitting that he was right, and I was very wrong about the race. I made about 140 on a race that should have been a month's worth of profit. Not only did I key Always Dreaming roughly five times as much as Cloud Computing, I only had Classic Empire on one of my Cloud Computing keys (with otherwise correct additional trifecta and superfecta tickets that tossed Classic Empire from 1st through 3rd). I also didn't bet a dime in multi-races. I was so biased about Classic Empire, that I was blind to some of the types of scenarios that Rsetup spelled out.

I'm not ever going to scanning the internet to bet Rsetup's (or any other poster's) selections, but there are a handful of guys at this site who consistently offer quality insights. One of the reason this site thrives, even with the existence of things like Facebook.



Well...


Jim Dunleavy in the DRF picked Cloud Computing.

Andy Serling had him.

If you read the Sheets Bulletin Board, a handicapper there picked him.

Just do a little reading, plenty of experts picked the horse.

I give no "copy cat" on this board or any other.

any kudo's for copy cat picks.

Matter of fact, it makes me more than a little angry.

It is the equivalent of trolling.

Please kick all the damn useless trolls off the board!!!!

Question?

This troll isn't Vic Stauffer, or is he?

Gerard02
05-21-2017, 03:57 PM
I give credit to Rs, as well. He called it. I have learned quite a bit reading these threads. Many of you guys know your stuff. One word of advice. Be gracious in victory as you would be in defeat. Remember, no one wins them all. I banged the Derby, but with knowledge I picked up here and what I knew over many years. I've seen some guys cut into each other, and it's disturbing that snipes are taken, but I've seen it before at the track. Guess, it comes with the territory. I would think if a guy shoots his mouth off, claiming to be the know it all handicapper and kicking those around, loses, he deserves a pop back. In most cases here, it seems many of you are cordial with each other and good with sharing general information. Let's look towards the Belmont and crushing it together. Good hunting, boys.

whodoyoulike
05-21-2017, 06:26 PM
Yippee.

Post race comments from those clueless (and/or silent) pre-race.

And, as expected, some repeat offenders.

I learn so much here.


That's not being fair, it's always fun to recap. It's also a way to learn.

Btw, I saw your post and thread on CC, very good. But, without going back to that thread ..... Did you provide your reasons or was it a vague claim?

EDIT: I just remember something about the Wood.

Afleet
05-21-2017, 08:36 PM
Does this result move Irish War Cry back up? He crushed Cloud Computing, maybe just didn't like the slop

Spalding No!
05-21-2017, 08:41 PM
Does this result move Irish War Cry back up? He crushed Cloud Computing, maybe just didn't like the slop
Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry seem to be birds of a feather. Need everything their own way and quite possibly need space between races. Can't imagine Irish War Cry would have been anywhere at the finish at Pimlico given the pace.

I would guess that we might see Irish War Cry on the grass this summer.

Afleet
05-21-2017, 08:58 PM
Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry seem to be birds of a feather. Need everything their own way and quite possibly need space between races. Can't imagine Irish War Cry would have been anywhere at the finish at Pimlico given the pace.

I would guess that we might see Irish War Cry on the grass this summer.

Will see him in the Haskell; owner/breeder from NJ

Fager Fan
05-22-2017, 07:54 AM
I don't think pressing the pace was the undoing of CE. The rider unleashed him a couple seconds too soon. Timing can be everything, including the last 2 seconds that resulted in CC getting his head in front at the wire. CE didn't have the energy needed to run stronger in those last few seconds, perhaps due to racing back in 2 weeks as opposed to the winner who didn't have that handicap.

CE proved to be the best 3yo colt currently running, but that doesn't seem to be saying a lot. Some of these horses will develop into good older horses next year but for now they're not the most exciting lot. Arrogate sure isn't worried.

Dahoss9698
05-22-2017, 08:41 AM
Crushing one race doesn't necessarily make you an expert or a winner.

Besides, for all I know, you were just tagging along with Andy's pick.

To be fair and Rsetup and I have had our fair share of battles over the years....he's kind of right here.

A lot of people are experts AFTER the fact. Those same people rarely have pre race opinions. I can understand where he's coming from.

Full disclosure I had no real opinion on the race and piggybacked on what my smart friends liked. I'm glad I did. :lol:

thaskalos
05-22-2017, 09:06 AM
Casse said he was going to go after Always Dreaming, but I think the level of aggressiveness cost them the race. IMO, it was totally unnecessary to push Always Dreaming in a 23 - 46 4/5 pace to accomplish his goal of keeping Always Dreaming honest.

There were a handful of possible outcomes doing it the way they did it.

1. You find out you have the inferior horse, lose the battle, and wind up blowing positions and cost yourself money.

2. You find out you have the better horse, win the battle, soften yourself up in the process, and lose the race (perhaps even more than one position).

3. You find out you are so superior, you could put the other horse away, and still beat the other horses despite softening yourself up.

Given his tactics yesterday, his only way to win was scenario #3. That's not a high probability scenario. The result was scenario #2.

IMO, the better option was to stalk Always Dreaming in a more moderate way and engage him on the 2nd turn without getting into a head to head battle earlier.

Then, if he's better than you he would have beaten you anyway, but you'll probably keep second.

If you are better than him you'll get to him on the turn and wear him down for the win.

Is there anyone that thinks Classic Empire was not clearly the best horse yesterday?

Yes...I think we could all agree that Classic Empire was best in the Preakness. But determining who was best after the race is run doesn't necessarily predict who will be best when the horses gather up again for the NEXT race. Let's not forget that there was unanimous agreement here that Always Dreaming was "best" after the Derby.

Fager Fan
05-22-2017, 10:47 AM
Yes...I think we could all agree that Classic Empire was best in the Preakness. But determining who was best after the race is run doesn't necessarily predict who will be best when the horses gather up again for the NEXT race. Let's not forget that there was unanimous agreement here that Always Dreaming was "best" after the Derby.

I don't know. I heard an awful lot about how the weather, rail, break and front affected the race results. Now we have the second race where many think (like I do) that the winner wasn't the best horse.

A weird TC this year. Seems like I can say that beforehand because how great can the Belmont be? Did I hear that the two winners are skipping?

Gerard02
05-22-2017, 10:51 AM
One thing I did do was list all of the RAN buckpasser X pos horses. Cloud Computing was one. Going back to I should have done......boxing CE and AD with the other those horses only would have resulted in an exacta win. However, as I stated earlier, I was not convinced CC could win. My pre analysis called for CMM to take the lead with AD stalking and CE in the rear waiting for his big charge. My wager was to play the two favs in a triple box with an Ex wheel. Unfortunately, the battle up front did not go the way I predicted, with CMM laying back. Thats horse racing. Either you call it or you don't. Lol. On to the Belmont.

bobphilo
05-22-2017, 11:50 AM
Randy Moss said that the decline in Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee in the Preakness compared to their Derby performances was due to the fact that they didn't get the benefit of the Derby "golden rail" in the Preakness. This could well be a contributing factor but a better explanation could be due to form cycles and pace differentials. Always Dreaming bounced seriously over his huge leap in his speed figure in the Derby, which was on top of his previous top in the Fl. Derby. He was a bounce candidate if there ever was one and the fact that he got involved in a pace duel with Classic Empire sealed the deal.
Lookin at Lea did get a closer's benefit from the early speed duel but not as much as the insane early pace in the Derby, which explains his performances in both races.
If one looks at the TimeformUS ratings for the race, it shows that Classic Empire ran the best race if you take into account his early pace duel with AD.
Cloud Computing, as some of our members realized, was a true contender, as his Gotham figure pointed out, and his so-called declining figure in the Wood was due to ground loss. Thoro-Graph, which takes ground loss into account, had this one.

At this point, IMO, Classic Empire and Cloud Computing are the top 3YOs, if form holds out.

Gerard02
05-22-2017, 05:39 PM
Randy Moss said that the decline in Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee in the Preakness compared to their Derby performances was due to the fact that they didn't get the benefit of the Derby "golden rail" in the Preakness. This could well be a contributing factor but a better explanation could be due to form cycles and pace differentials. Always Dreaming bounced seriously over his huge leap in his speed figure in the Derby, which was on top of his previous top in the Fl. Derby. He was a bounce candidate if there ever was one and the fact that he got involved in a pace duel with Classic Empire sealed the deal.
Lookin at Lea did get a closer's benefit from the early speed duel but not as much as the insane early pace in the Derby, which explains his performances in both races.
If one looks at the TimeformUS ratings for the race, it shows that Classic Empire ran the best race if you take into account his early pace duel with AD.
Cloud Computing, as some of our members realized, was a true contender, as his Gotham figure pointed out, and his so-called declining figure in the Wood was due to ground loss. Thoro-Graph, which takes ground loss into account, had this one.

At this point, IMO, Classic Empire and Cloud Computing are the top 3YOs, if form holds out.

What you say about AD may be true. I have read, "Speed to Spare" by Joe Cardello. He devotes an entire chapter to the Beyer Bounce. However, AD improved only five points from his Florida Derby. Not a big enough improvement, I think, to warrant a bounce. If you take his March 4th race, he would have improved an incredible 31 points! If that is the case you are making, I would say it's interesting. Now, on the March 4th race he regressed from an 81 speed rating and still won the race by four lengths. It could be the two week gap that did it. We could what if and say, what if the gap was three weeks and he won?

The bottom line is AD burnt himself out in the duel with CE. He's out. CE proved he can handle a duel, although he succumbed to CC. CEs trainer said, it might have been the blinkers preventing CE from seeing CC coming up alongside until it was too late. Since, he has confidence enough to enter CE in the Belmont, I will go one more time with him. You do make an interesting point. Thanks for the feedback. Keep it going fellas.

bobphilo
05-22-2017, 06:25 PM
What you say about AD may be true. I have read, "Speed to Spare" by Joe Cardello. He devotes an entire chapter to the Beyer Bounce. However, AD improved only five points from his Florida Derby. Not a big enough improvement, I think, to warrant a bounce. If you take his March 4th race, he would have improved an incredible 31 points! If that is the case you are making, I would say it's interesting. Now, on the March 4th race he regressed from an 81 speed rating and still won the race by four lengths. It could be the two week gap that did it. We could what if and say, what if the gap was three weeks and he won?



It wasn't the Derby alone but the fact that he had run 2 tops in a row. He actually ran faster splits in the Derby than in the Preakness and held on much better there. If one considers pace, his performance was better than his raw Beyer figure implies. What kind of performance in the Derby was considering the hot pace. Beyer's don't show the effects of pace, though figure handicappers must interpret the figure in relation to how the figure was earned. That effort, considering the pace, set him up for a likely bounce on short rest.

Glad you mentioned "Speed to Spare". My favorite part is where Cardello points out that when a horse runs a superior figure and then runs poorly due to injury and then returns with an improved figure despite being short on conditioning he is likely to repeat his previous top next time. That is way I liked Classic Empire in both the Derby and Preakness. Throwing out the Derby due to his horrible trip, He fit the pattern beautifully and confirmed my belief in him in the Preakness.

LemonSoupKid
05-23-2017, 11:11 AM
No way Classic Empire gets 12f

He ran a good race but that's it. He and CC were just the tallest midgets, in my estimation.

Gerard02
05-23-2017, 01:35 PM
No way Classic Empire gets 12f

He ran a good race but that's it. He and CC were just the tallest midgets, in my estimation.

I would not toss him out, completely. He may surprise you and win it.

ReplayRandall
05-23-2017, 01:41 PM
The upcoming Belmont Stakes has a "Drosselmeyer" type of feel as the winner. It will be interesting to see which of the entries fits this mold......

VigorsTheGrey
05-23-2017, 02:22 PM
The upcoming Belmont Stakes has a "Drosselmeyer" type of feel as the winner. It will be interesting to see which of the entries fits this mold......
You thinking Senior Investment and Looking At Lee...? Both these would probably be further back than Drosselmeyer was...The most common winning profile, IMO, would be to be leading at the mile marker post, then never look back...who might fit that profile and still get the distance...? Who is that middle runner here versus the one to run down past the mile post...? Otherwise, it is a deep closer, like Creator...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRYDjjqq8bA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKxmvnqkXE4

Gerard02
05-23-2017, 02:26 PM
The upcoming Belmont Stakes has a "Drosselmeyer" type of feel as the winner. It will be interesting to see which of the entries fits this mold......

I'm going to be delving deeper into this race. I learned a few things, here. Some things, I was reminded of. Digging deep into the last few years' Belmont Stakes past races will help. We know, we don't have an AP type horse here. Can CE bounce back? If not, which longshot will tears apart the toteboard. I'm sure there will be some different types of wagers. Bet all the longshots as savers. If CE looks good to go, I may wheel him up and down with the field. So, far, no luck with Triples or supers. I'm better with exactas and that Preakness was a close one, but I got the Derby. Let's see if I can get the rubber match. :headbanger:

jimmyb
05-23-2017, 02:54 PM
I think Ken Rudolph is still beating his chest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwSDE3KLGL4

ReplayRandall
05-23-2017, 03:10 PM
The upcoming Belmont Stakes has a "Drosselmeyer" type of feel as the winner. It will be interesting to see which of the entries fits this mold......
I will go on record stating the horse I believe who is improving and will benefit most from the 1-1/2 mile distance, the WINNER of the Belmont Stakes is------->Senior Investment

dilanesp
05-23-2017, 03:18 PM
I will go on record stating the horse I believe who is improving and will benefit most from the 1-1/2 mile distance, the WINNER of the Belmont Stakes is------->Senior Investment

I will wait until I actually get a chance to look at the race, but I think you make a fair amount of sense here.

VigorsTheGrey
05-23-2017, 03:57 PM
I think Ken Rudolph is still beating his chest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwSDE3KLGL4

I miss Ken being on TVG...wonder what he is doing nowadays...?

Vinnie
05-23-2017, 04:49 PM
I will go on record stating the horse I believe who is improving and will benefit most from the 1-1/2 mile distance, the WINNER of the Belmont Stakes is------->Senior Investment

I like your line of reasoning ReplayRandall, and, if the race were going this next weekend with who appears likely to show up for the Belmont Stakes I would tend to agree with your assessment. :)

bobphilo
05-23-2017, 05:04 PM
I would not toss him out, completely. He may surprise you and win it.

I agree. CE just got caught at the wire after engaging in a speed duel, not because he has distance limitations. He should get a more reasonable pace in the Belmont. If ridden properly he can also close strongly.

TheGarMan
05-23-2017, 05:36 PM
I miss Ken being on TVG...wonder what he is doing nowadays...?

Funny, I just looked him up online a few weeks back... Seems he was local news anchor doing news in southern California (Maybe the San diego market if memory serves me?)

Always liked him, and LOVED the behind the scenes footage of the Giacomo derby win :D

Gar

Gerard02
05-23-2017, 05:43 PM
It wasn't the Derby alone but the fact that he had run 2 tops in a row. He actually ran faster splits in the Derby than in the Preakness and held on much better there. If one considers pace, his performance was better than his raw Beyer figure implies. What kind of performance in the Derby was considering the hot pace. Beyer's don't show the effects of pace, though figure handicappers must interpret the figure in relation to how the figure was earned. That effort, considering the pace, set him up for a likely bounce on short rest.

Glad you mentioned "Speed to Spare". My favorite part is where Cardello points out that when a horse runs a superior figure and then runs poorly due to injury and then returns with an improved figure despite being short on conditioning he is likely to repeat his previous top next time. That is way I liked Classic Empire in both the Derby and Preakness. Throwing out the Derby due to his horrible trip, He fit the pattern beautifully and confirmed my belief in him in the Preakness.

Looking more closely at AD, he fit the back-to-back big Beyer. He scored an all time high 97 in the Florida Derby, followed by another all time high of 102 in the Kentucky Derby. CE is interesting. He followed a three and out pattern with a 102 for his BC Jvnile he then bounced in then bounced in the Holy Bull. He then comes up with a 94 in the Arkansas Derby, followed by a bounce to a 90 in the Kentucky Derby. His Preakness Beyer was a 102, his all time high. He is now following an up and down pattern. One high, one low, one high. If this is true, CE is due for a bounce next. He had a hard fought Preakness, so one would lean towards bounce in the Belmont. I'll look more into the patterns for the rest of the possibles as they come online.

jimmyb
05-23-2017, 05:47 PM
I miss Ken being on TVG...wonder what he is doing nowadays...?


Last I knew he was doing something called Good Morning Sacramento as well as some movie stuff.

Gerard02
05-23-2017, 05:54 PM
Another note I just read in my "Speed to Spare" book. I had it underlined in red and highlighted. I Quote, "Horses who achieve a lifetime best on a wet track are particularly vulnerable next time out."

Based on this, those who tossed AD completely, were spot on. I missed this. This is why it's important to review. From this, I must conclude that my confidence in AD was misplaced and I paid for it. Luckily, I did not discount what the AD naysayers were pointing out. I took CE and wheeled him with everyone other than AD, but got nipped by CC. At least, passed the 16th pole, I felt I still had a shot at winning as I watched AD head to the rear with the gear.

Gerard02
05-23-2017, 06:01 PM
One more note: Senior Investment shows an Escalator pattern. His Beyers have been improving, since he began racing. He had a couple of stalls, but he has not taken a step back. Not sure what to make of that, but if he stays fit, he has a shot in the Belmont, if he goes.

maliksealy210
05-23-2017, 07:17 PM
One more note: Senior Investment shows an Escalator pattern. His Beyers have been improving, since he began racing. He had a couple of stalls, but he has not taken a step back. Not sure what to make of that, but if he stays fit, he has a shot in the Belmont, if he goes.

Channing Hill had some great info after race on this horse, and concluded practically "claiming" an upcoming victory in the Belmont, claiming (rightly so from what I've seen and the chart) that he was just getting his stride at the 1/8 pole and had a super strong gallop out. Will be interesting to see.