Replays

[TriSuper]

Question:

How important are replays to your handicapping?

I tend to watch most of the replay shows available to me such as Thoroughbred action from New York and the replay shows on TVG in the mornings.

Saratoga blog (http://spa-racing.blogspot.com/)

[fmhealth]

Hi TRI, interesting BLOG. Thanks, keep those SPA undates coming !!!

BTW, I personally don't find race replays very helpful. I'm essentially a "paddock 'capper". Need only to see the horses go once around the paddock & I have a pretty good idea of who will put in a good effort TODAY. Still amazes me that the overwhelming percentage of 'cappers never consider "physicality" a viable 'capping angle.

Best of luck !!!!

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by fmhealth
Hi TRI, interesting BLOG. Thanks, keep those SPA undates coming !!!

BTW, I personally don't find race replays very helpful. I'm essentially a "paddock 'capper". Need only to see the horses go once around the paddock & I have a pretty good idea of who will put in a good effort TODAY. Still amazes me that the overwhelming percentage of 'cappers never consider "physicality" a viable 'capping angle.

Best of luck !!!!

I would consider physicallity more if I were any good at really reading it. I have to depend on past patterns and trainer intent because I've got no eye for the horses

[kenwoodallpromos]

In turf races. I bet the low odds horse with the longest neck.

[DJofSD]

I would consider physicallity more if I were any good at really reading it. I have to depend on past patterns and trainer intent because I've got no eye for the horses

It can be learned. And there are some things you can see even on a TV monitor that will help you. Case in point, I hit a $38 or $39 maiden at ARL recently just from watching the parade and seeing only one horse flagging his tale (#10 something like Afternoon nap or snooze).

I'd say find an old book and video tape by Bonnie Ledbetter with Chris McCarron (yes, the same person) then go to the track, watch and take some notes then see what the horses do or don't do.

Another is "Horses Talk, It Pays to Listen."

DJofSD

[fmhealth]

Mr Bet, here's one insight on physicality that will save you A LOT of money. Simply EXCLUDE any horse with a flat tail. If the tail is not VISIBILY off the hind quarters, there's a very good chance that animal will NOT put forth their top effort.

Spend just a bit of time in the paddock. You'll be amazed how quickly you come up the learning curve.

[Macdiarmadillo]

Re: replays

I used to used them when checking out the degree of trouble in a previous race, so it was more of a spot play thing. Plus they still miss things in charts. And if "bumped", was it self-caused or what?

GGF long ago had a replay service during track hours, and you'd just request races in the last 30 days (S. Cal. simos, too) to see them on dedicated monitors. Helped make a lot of decisions. I'd also call up the previous day's races to see if there was a bias. The replay show here often still reduces races to stretch runs -- too much talking sometimes.

Now that I've discovered the online service for replays, I might pick that up.

[Niko]

I don't know if throwing out flat tail horses is a good idea at cheaper tracks. I've just seen to many that figured win. After passing on a couple winning bets I don't do it anymore. Warm-ups don't matter at the cheap track I'm at either because there's not much of them. I'm not out there everyday but I have no qualms about a horse with a flat tail in the paddock area and a short work out on the track.

[fmhealth]

Niko, whatever works for you is of course the way to go. Flat tailed horses definately DO win. Just like ones that walk short & are lathered up.

What I found is that by tossing these animals, while I certainly lose a few winners. The money I save on the large majority that look good in the DRF, but terrible in the paddock. Helps my ROI immensely.

BTW, I tend to only play the top tracks. AP, SAR and Delmar. Perhaps in the smaller tracks you might have a lot more leeway. Although Ellis, that I play for the Turf has proven superb for physicality 'capping.

Best of luck !!!!