PDA

View Full Version : Ky Derby Postmortem= Preakness outlook


omar2
05-19-2017, 11:59 PM
I'm not going to enthrall you with my literary acumen like in my derby blog. Instead what your going to get here is JUST THE HARD FACTS OF HORSE RACING LIFE WEEK IN AND WEEK OUT.
Since i don't use RDSS i'm only going to mention the fps that i use with one of my Sartin programs and the pacelines i chose on the entrants and the whys. Now you can run my pacelines that i chose on the preakness with RDSS or whatever program you use either before or after the race to get another slant on the race-the choice is yours.
#1 last race because i see no reason not to use it;
#2 last race because of the quality horses he couldn't beat on the class rise;
#3 2nd race back because of a troubled trip on an off track with a new jock who comes back again on the horse;
#4 last race because HE WON on an off track. He got a dream trip on a sloppy track where the 2 main speeds were backing up at the end and the closers couldn't handle the track and the trouble they encountered early. Now we'll see how he reacts to real speed horses the 10 & 2, not to mention the 5 who's gonna shadow him every step of the way this time around.
#5 the race on 11/05/16 because most 3 yo's by this time of year have already surpassed their best efforts as a 2 yo, this guy hasn't due to an injury in late winter. And if you think horses can't rebound off troubled trips go watch what happened to Touch Gold in the 1993 Preakness and Belmont.
#6 2nd race back. Just throw out last race and how can they label the race wet fast, ya see now that's FAKE NEWS! He's one of 4 deep closers and if you think a horse like this can't win, go back and and watch the 1976 Preakness on you tube.
#7 last race because lets face it he's just outclassed. Look who he beat-SONNETEER and only by a nose!!;
#8 last race because at least he won the Lexington!;
#9 2nd race back because he ran close to the winner last time even though the mud helped him- see his 9/17/16 race in the mud at CD- and so I want to help him with that better race even though he got beat by the #5 in that race and will probably get beat by him again;
#10 last race because he's very consistent, hasn't run a bad race yet and runs well fresh too. Will contest the pace to the end hurting the #4 and maybe even the #5.
I think this race sets up for the #'s 1-3-6 and 9 and the 6 beat the 5 once before, but if the 5 runs to his best race then the rest are battling for 2nd money. Just bet the value horses here. I will put the 4 in my triples and supers.
Hey Richie P. i'm glad to see you back in the game. I know, I know, you thought you were out but they pulled you back in. Nobody ever leaves the herd.
Later, Omar.
p.s. I almost forgot. The F1 and C2 horses are 10-5-3-4-2 and the 5-10-3-4, while the F2 horses are the 8-6-7-1. The F3 horses are the 6-1-5-9-3. The top sp horses are 5-1-6-3 and the top 2 deceleration horses are the 1-6. Even though i think the 3 will close, he shows up early because he ran against the 10 and his #'s are inflated because of that, and that tells you how much speed the 10 brings to this race.

boys at tosconova
05-20-2017, 12:17 AM
one word: paragraphs

VigorsTheGrey
05-20-2017, 01:04 AM
I'm not going to enthrall you with my literary acumen like in my derby blog. Instead what your going to get here is JUST THE HARD FACTS OF HORSE RACING LIFE WEEK IN AND WEEK OUT.
Since i don't use RDSS i'm only going to mention the fps that i use with one of my Sartin programs and the pacelines i chose on the entrants and the whys. Now you can run my pacelines that i chose on the preakness with RDSS or whatever program you use either before or after the race to get another slant on the race-the choice is yours.
#1 last race because i see no reason not to use it;
#2 last race because of the quality horses he couldn't beat on the class rise;
#3 2nd race back because of a troubled trip on an off track with a new jock who comes back again on the horse;
#4 last race because HE WON on an off track. He got a dream trip on a sloppy track where the 2 main speeds were backing up at the end and the closers couldn't handle the track and the trouble they encountered early. Now we'll see how he reacts to real speed horses the 10 & 2, not to mention the 5 who's gonna shadow him every step of the way this time around.
#5 the race on 11/05/16 because most 3 yo's by this time of year have already surpassed their best efforts as a 2 yo, this guy hasn't due to an injury in late winter. And if you think horses can't rebound off troubled trips go watch what happened to Touch Gold in the 1993 Preakness and Belmont.
#6 2nd race back. Just throw out last race and how can they label the race wet fast, ya see now that's FAKE NEWS! He's one of 4 deep closers and if you think a horse like this can't win, go back and and watch the 1976 Preakness on you tube.
#7 last race because lets face it he's just outclassed. Look who he beat-SONNETEER and only by a nose!!;
#8 last race because at least he won the Lexington!;
#9 2nd race back because he ran close to the winner last time even though the mud helped him- see his 9/17/16 race in the mud at CD- and so I want to help him with that better race even though he got beat by the #5 in that race and will probably get beat by him again;
#10 last race because he's very consistent, hasn't run a bad race yet and runs well fresh too. Will contest the pace to the end hurting the #4 and maybe even the #5.
I think this race sets up for the #'s 1-3-6 and 9 and the 6 beat the 5 once before, but if the 5 runs to his best race then the rest are battling for 2nd money. Just bet the value horses here. I will put the 4 in my triples and supers.
Hey Richie P. i'm glad to see you back in the game. I know, I know, you thought you were out but they pulled you back in. Nobody ever leaves the herd.
Later, Omar.
p.s. I almost forgot. The F1 and C2 horses are 10-5-3-4-2 and the 5-10-3-4, while the F2 horses are the 8-6-7-1. The F3 horses are the 6-1-5-9-3. The top sp horses are 5-1-6-3 and the top 2 deceleration horses are the 1-6. Even though i think the 3 will close, he shows up early because he ran against the 10 and his #'s are inflated because of that, and that tells you how much speed the 10 brings to this race.

Welcome aboard Omar...happy to see a new face...I'm not really the official greeter here but just thought I would welcome you here...hope you post often...Vigors.

Whoops I see you have been here since 2013, longer than me...o well, cheers...