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Blenheim
05-19-2017, 02:03 PM
Thanks to Andy Asaro for the thread, "Preakness Post-Draw Trainer Quotes" wherein I found that comment from Mark Casse. There are three paragraphs, here is the final paragraph in that must read:

“I like it a lot better being 5 and Always Dreaming being 4 than us being 4 and he’s 5, because that puts Julien (Leparoux) more in the driver’s seat. He can watch, and if we break running and Always Dreaming doesn’t, we may be on the lead. If Always Dreaming breaks running and we break running, if Julien thinks Always Dreaming is running too easy, he’ll go up and engage him earlier. If he thinks he’s running, he’ll sit back.”

Hoss racin' :ThmbUp:

Bashed and bruised Two-year-old Champion, with what may be some weary legs, lookin' for a "fair shot", against the up and comin' Kentucky Derby champion w/no doubt fresh legs, goin' 110 yards shorter on fast dirt. YEAH! That is what it is all about. Gotta' be eyeball to eyeball at some point, interested in seein' who has the class here. Them fresh legs gotta' mean somethin' and so does bein' two-year-old Champ!

So when they hook early and the 6 goes in 70.1, will the fast early give way to the fast late?

Lookin' forward to the Preakness Stakes!

Dull
05-19-2017, 02:12 PM
If they go up and engage Always Dreaming they will get torched. If they sit back, they will be looking at Always Dreaming's backside all the way to the finish. In other words good luck. Gonna need it

Blenheim
05-19-2017, 02:28 PM
If they go up and engage Always Dreaming they will get torched. If they sit back, they will be looking at Always Dreaming's backside all the way to the finish. In other words good luck. Gonna need it

Ah, but not so quickly. Gotta consider the nature of the beast. Here is a quote from the Dean of Handicapping Tom Ainslie:

Invariably and inevitably, the class horse prevails. Whether on the backstretch, on the turn, or in the homestretch, the better horse makes a run, easily overtakes the speedster, keeps pace with it for several strides and pulls ahead with little effort. During those few moments, the cheaper horse gets the message. It acknowledges its own inferiority and gives up. The better horse wins, perhaps in 1:104/5. It will not run the three quarters in the 1:091/5 of which it is capable until challenged by an animal more nearly its match.

It is unnecessary to become mystical about the ease with which a class horse trounces its inferiors, the authority with which it bullies them into running more slowly than usual, the “knowledge” they seem to display in promptly accepting defeat by a superior. Students of animal intelligence and animal psychology would not be surprised by this, and would find nothing mystical in it. Every known species of bird, fish and mammal has its own social order in which physical superiority wins privileges.

We'll see what AD is made of when eyeball to eyeball w/confirmed class. The only thing goin' against CE is the fatigue factor - he has gotta be somewhat (?) weary from "the rigors of a two-year-old campaign and a long three-year-old pre-classic campaign" (Roman).

Should make for a good hoss' race.

:11:

Dull
05-19-2017, 02:43 PM
Then "weary" will be the excuse this time.

Blenheim
05-19-2017, 03:20 PM
Then "weary" will be the excuse this time.

Dull, you're not so dull. :ThmbUp:

Allow me, if you will, to retract that term. Here is the rewrite, not that it makes much difference:

We'll see what AD is made of when eyeball to eyeball w/confirmed class. The only thing goin' against CE is the fatigue factor, "the rigors of a two-year-old campaign and a long three-year-old pre-classic campaign" (Roman).


I for one think AD runs off with it.


What will be more interesting for me to watch is what may be the beginning of "type displacement". AD may be the prototypical type of horse winning the Kentucky Derby in the future, displacing the high EFH G1 winner at two.

boys at tosconova
05-19-2017, 08:07 PM
i love casse. dude is a snake oil salesman.

i do think he'll leave for position but lol @ him if he tries to pull a sham w/ his 3rd race in a month.

you knew he was leaving in the ark derby, which he did. but he still got away 6th.

Robert Fischer
05-19-2017, 08:59 PM
The one performance that makes him not Girvin, featured him riding the track near the pace in the Juvenile.

They ought to be thinking in terms of securing decent forward position.

However, they don't want to ruin their chances of running 3rd or 4th with a solid performance, by being too aggressive early. Then they will be reliving their Holy Bull...