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ultracapper
05-18-2017, 06:15 PM
Maybe this thread will inspire discussion, maybe not, but I think it will show that there are approaches that differ greatly from what a lot of players are doing.

This week, 5/18-5/21, these are the races at Santa Anita with conditions written for races I handicap as my meat and potato game.

Thur 5/18
Race #6
Race #8

Friday 5/19
Race #2
Race #5
Race #6

Sat 5/20
Race #4
Race #5
Race #6
Race #10

Sun 5/21
Race #2
Race #3

Odds I use for my personal probability line
1/19 (95%)
1/9 (90%)
1/4 (80%)
1/3 (75%)
2/3 (60%)
1/1 (50%)
3/2 (40%)
3/1 (25%)
4/1 (20%)
9/1 (10%)
19/1 (5%)
24/1 (4%)
49/1 (2%)
99/1 (1%)
199/1 (0.5%)

ultracapper
05-18-2017, 06:28 PM
Thur 5/18
Race #6
:7: Big Bad Jon- In his last race, he pulled aggressively for the first 6f. This lead me to investigate his possibilities further, and after doing so, I wasn't able to define anything that was of a predictive nature in relation to today's field or conditions. I made him 49/1 in this field, and stopped working this race.

PASS

Race #8
:4: Tammy's Window- Notable late interest, lead me to look at relevant races in her past performances, and didn't find anything that gave me enough confidence to make a bet on her. In this field, I felt her probability was 4/1, but I found others that I would have at 4/1 and 9/1. I found the race to be a crap shoot with none of the entries showing really anything of a positive predictive nature, and gave in.

PASS


A very difficult thing has always been to invest time and effort into a race, and then, after not being able to decipher it fully, show the discipline needed to walk away. The race #8, in particular, would be the type of race that I would allow to nickel and dime my bankroll, but not this time.

EDIT: Just went to TVG and see that #7 Big Bad Jon was a scratch.

ultracapper
05-18-2017, 06:34 PM
After 1 Day
Results

2 Races
2 horses of interest
2 tosses
0 bets


EDIT: Because of the scratch, I have to adjust the results

2 races
1 race of interest
1 horse of interest
1 toss
0 bets

2-1-[1-0(0-0)]=N/A
Races-Races of Interest-[Horses of Interest-Bets(Wins-Places)]=RO$I

ultracapper
05-18-2017, 07:08 PM
I'll clean up the presentation as we go along this weekend. Can't really inspire any conversation or constructive involvement if it's a job just understanding what's trying to be said.

ultracapper
05-19-2017, 04:21 PM
Fri 5/19
Race #2

Went through each horse's last race replay and found nothing.

PASS

Race #5

:3: Particleacelerator- Pulled very hard down backstretch. When running room came at the 1/4 pole, he was flatter than a pancake. I thought maybe the effort from fighting the jock for 3/4 of the race may have been the cause of having little in the lane, but after going over his 2 previous races to that, it looks to be a reoccurring theme. He doesn't have a big "nother" gear in the lane. I put him at 9/1 in this field.

PASS

Race #6


:4: Whiskey Ginger- Ran a solid 2nd quarter mile in last. Ran into traffic at the 1/4 pole, had to relax and wait, finally was able to split horses at the 3/16th pole, jockey shook the reins and he started another run to the finish line. Ran the final half mile in a tad over 46. Could have been 3 or 4 lengths faster if not for the mild traffic at the top of the stretch. Broke poorly and took his time getting into stride. That will be the challenge in this race. Get out of the gate and stay in touch early. The fact that he showed a second run in his last indicates to me that it was an honest finish. Bejarano up.



:4: Even
:3: 9/1
:6: 9/1
:7: 9/1
:8: 9/1
:1: 24/1
:5: 24/1
:2: 49/1

Bet :4: