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Blenheim
05-13-2017, 04:47 PM
The Kentucky Derby - cool. The Preakness Stakes - nice. The Belmont Stakes, yea . . . now that is a horse race. Been to it twice, first was ‘04 saw Smarty Jones lose to Birdstone. Went back ten years later and caught a winner in Tonalist. I thought the second time more special than the first, although the first was extraordinary.


Been researching a horse called Epicharis, grandson of Sunday Silence, shipping in from Japan, arrives June 1. He can ship. Most of em’ can’t, this one can.

Many horses withstand long trips remarkably well. But an enormous majority requires a race or two before becoming fully acclimated to a new track. Horses that recover quickly from the stress of travel and the tension caused by new surroundings are known as “good shippers.” They sometimes manage to win their first race at the new oval without so much as a workout there. But sometimes. Not often. Ainslie

Shipped from Japan to UAE, damn near wired em’, lost by a fraction. I’ve seen a few of em’, none of the greats, but this one here I don’t think I’ve seen one quite like this one in recent times. Saw the first picture and I was taken by his presence; saw a second photo and was convinced.

20090
20091

Nice thing about Japanese horse racing websites is the detail. You can pull a pedigree, go to progeny of the sire, progeny distance and see the distance stats. http://umanity.jp/en/racedata/db/horse_pedigree.php?code=2014103121

Done some fun research on this one, haven’t got to the Dosage part yet as I’m searchin’ the Futures . . .

:11:

f2tornado
05-13-2017, 11:16 PM
Doasage is 1.20. This includes 14 Classic points and 3 Solid points. He also has Buckpasser-x via a less common route. I think he would do well at the distance but have not convinced myself he's fast enough. I'd be more inclined to play him if he acquires the services of a rider who knows that track. If there is ever a race requiring a familiar pilot it is the Belmont. I'd also like to see Battle of Midway take a shot there given his stakes distance pedigree and pace style that suits the race perfectly.

depalma113
05-14-2017, 09:32 AM
He should make a nice run for sixth.

Blenheim
05-14-2017, 10:49 AM
Doasage is 1.20. This includes 14 Classic points and 3 Solid points. He also has Buckpasser-x via a less common route. I think he would do well at the distance but have not convinced myself he's fast enough. I'd be more inclined to play him if he acquires the services of a rider who knows that track. If there is ever a race requiring a familiar pilot it is the Belmont. I'd also like to see Battle of Midway take a shot there given his stakes distance pedigree and pace style that suits the race perfectly.

Looking forward to reviewing his past performances.

If you've got the time, take a look at the videos of his races; this is a formidable colt. With respect to the jockey and his familiarity w/the track, can't argue w/that. However, Lemaire does have a world of experience and has won some major races throughout the world. His accomplishments no doubt rival those of his peers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christophe_Lemaire

With respect to Dosage, still got to give it a review. I do see that he possesses Dominant Classicity. Last I read from the connections of Battle of Midway, which was more than a week ago, back to SoCal, maybe for some much earned R and R. Likely that Derby took somethin' out of him.

He should make a nice run for sixth. I figure he wires em', never looks back, goes unchallenged.

Lookin' forward to the Belmont Stakes.

:11:

Robert Fischer
05-14-2017, 11:59 AM
I've got Epicharis at least as good as Thunder Snow, but also having the ability to translate his form to US racing (unlike Thunder Snow).

Maybe Thunder Snow's fresh flop will hold off the ridiculous underlay-money that comes pouring in on foreign hopes these days? Or maybe it will be worse with the Asian money?

Price will be important, as will the quality of field.
If Always Dreaming can do the relax-&-draw-off thing in the Preakness, he will be tough to beat in the Belmont, and Timeline may be the best classic distance runner 3yo since Arrogate.

Blenheim
05-14-2017, 02:00 PM
Last race: RPR 114 = BSF 101

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/1013246/thunder-snow?authme

Click link, Epicharis in "Form".

~

Looking forward to watching Always Dreaming perform in the Preakness, I think he runs off with it. With respect to Timeline, last I read he is headed for the Haskell, although the Belmont is a possibility.

depalma113
05-14-2017, 09:32 PM
Last race: RPR 114 = BSF 101

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/1013246/thunder-snow?authme

Click link, Epicharis in "Form".

~

Looking forward to watching Always Dreaming perform in the Preakness, I think he runs off with it. With respect to Timeline, last I read he is headed for the Haskell, although the Belmont is a possibility.


They actually gave a BSF for the race and it was a 94.

chiguy
05-15-2017, 04:05 PM
I predict he will buck several times out of the gate and be a non-factor

handyman1968
05-16-2017, 11:27 PM
Is the English horse Lancaster Bomber running the Preakness on Sat? He'll be a very good guide on the Japanese horse as he finished 4th in the UAE derby. Lancaster Bomber also just ran the 2000 Guineas in a respectable 4th after shipping back from Dubai.

letswastemoney
05-17-2017, 12:53 AM
Master Plan was 3rd in the UAE Derby, and 5th in the Peter Pan. His previous form before the UAE Derby isn't that inspiring either.

And people are high on the 1-2 UAE Derby runners?

Kitan
05-17-2017, 03:49 AM
Looking forward to reviewing his past performances.

If you've got the time, take a look at the videos of his races; this is a formidable colt. With respect to the jockey and his familiarity w/the track, can't argue w/that. However, Lemaire does have a world of experience and has won some major races throughout the world. His accomplishments no doubt rival those of his peers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christophe_Lemaire

With respect to Dosage, still got to give it a review. I do see that he possesses Dominant Classicity. Last I read from the connections of Battle of Midway, which was more than a week ago, back to SoCal, maybe for some much earned R and R. Likely that Derby took somethin' out of him.

I figure he wires em', never looks back, goes unchallenged.

Lookin' forward to the Belmont Stakes.

:11:

Absolutely, Lemaire is a class jockey and the long, sweeping turn is something he's experienced time and again at Tokyo racecourse.

Here is a (zoomed-in) close-up I took of Epicharis in the paddock before the Hyacinth Stakes.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v429/Kitan/Japan/162_zpsrcjy9m0r.jpg

He had a great stalking trip that day so I don't think he needs to wire them (it was mentioned after the UAE Derby that he ran incredibly brave on the front where he didn't need to be). On the other hand he did have a perfect trip (won with relative ease), ran 2.7sec slower than the older runners two races later (G1 milers, he's a distance horse), and the second place horse flopped in Dubai (although he is a confirmed front runner and couldn't cross from post 16).

When the Japanese have hype around their runners they're usually right. For example, there was no hype with Lani with respect to his ability, and with Epicharis they believe they have something good.

Blenheim
05-17-2017, 09:34 PM
Absolutely, Lemaire is a class jockey and the long, sweeping turn is something he's experienced time and again at Tokyo racecourse.

Here is a (zoomed-in) close-up I took of Epicharis in the paddock before the Hyacinth Stakes.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v429/Kitan/Japan/162_zpsrcjy9m0r.jpg

He had a great stalking trip that day so I don't think he needs to wire them (it was mentioned after the UAE Derby that he ran incredibly brave on the front where he didn't need to be). On the other hand he did have a perfect trip (won with relative ease), ran 2.7sec slower than the older runners two races later (G1 milers, he's a distance horse), and the second place horse flopped in Dubai (although he is a confirmed front runner and couldn't cross from post 16).

When the Japanese have hype around their runners they're usually right. For example, there was no hype with Lani with respect to his ability, and with Epicharis they believe they have something good.

Thanks Kitan, nice photo. Looks like a distance horse to me - 16 hands, well balanced horizontally, nice muscling at the stifle; appears composed - reminds me of Tonalist.

Kitan, I've been trying to find information on what Epicharis has been doing since his last race. I haven't been able to find any information. I've reviewed his past performances and I don't see any information on workouts. Do you have any information on his workouts or what he has been doing since his last race?

Thanks,

:11:

handyman1968
05-20-2017, 05:33 PM
My guess is he's running the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) next Saturday (Sunday Japan time), not sure so might not be able to make it to Belmont with a 2 week turnaround. Too much money in Japan for them to worry about American races. Japanese are only obsessed with the Arc.

Kitan
05-23-2017, 06:53 AM
My guess is he's running the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) next Saturday (Sunday Japan time), not sure so might not be able to make it to Belmont with a 2 week turnaround. Too much money in Japan for them to worry about American races. Japanese are only obsessed with the Arc.

He has never run on turf and is not even nominated.

Hoops McCann
05-24-2017, 01:54 PM
i like his chances but will probably not be a good value.

handyman1968
05-27-2017, 10:40 PM
Thunder Snow's second to Churchill in the Irish 2000 Guineas today kinda flatter Epicharis form in the UAE derby no?

Blenheim
05-28-2017, 01:05 AM
Thunder Snow's second to Churchill in the Irish 2000 Guineas today kinda flatter Epicharis form in the UAE derby no?

Coming into the Belmont Stakes Epicharis will be unraced for over 70 days - that is a long time to be out of competition. The latest I've read from his trainer, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, is the horse has put in one 4 furlong work over the uphill wood chips course at the Miho training facility - splits went 12.6 / 36.8 / 50.7 for the distance. Hagiwara tells us "He looks fine and he moved sharply. He has been doing well."

What else has this horse been doing in the past two months? Can't come into the Belmont Stakes on just one 4fl work!

I Googled the Miho Training facility and read it is a state of the art facility with poly, wood chip, turf, steeple and dirt race tracks, in addition to a woodland riding trail, indoor heated pool, racehorse hospital and numerous other amenities for the horse. :ThmbUp:

However, I could not find any information on the horses working out on those tracks. :ThmbDown:

Same thing for the past performances for Thunder Snow in the Kentucky Derby, no workout info between the UAE and the KD. What did the horse do between the Derby and the Irish Guineas? Here in the United States we simply go to Equibase, type in the name of the horse, instant info, including workouts; or we just simply go to the track and check the workouts page. I have not been able to find a comparable link at the Japanese Racing Association's web pages.

So . . . hard to know what Thunder Snow's second to Churchill in the Irish Guineas means, however, it is my hope that it bodes well for the grandson of Sunday Silence.

:11:

Blenheim
05-28-2017, 02:16 PM
I must make a correction to my previous post where I wrote, “Can’t come into the Belmont Stakes on just one 4fl work!” That is not correct.

The trainer of Epicharis, Kiyoshi Hagiwara stated on Friday:

“ . . . I will give him one more timed work in Japan at the same course on Sunday and the last one will be at Belmont on Tuesday or Wednesday the week of the race.”


That will be three (3) workouts since his last race until the Belmont – three (3) workouts in 76 days. It’s Monday in Japan. Has the Miho Training Facility posted his work time? If so, where can I find it? How far did he go, uphill wood chip course again, is the course indoor or outdoor, what is the gradient, and what about the condition of the course? Who was up, what about the gallop out, any comments? Has the horse gained any weight since the UAE, if so, how much, if not, how much did he lose?


With respect to the three (3) works in 76 days, the Dean of Handicapping Tom Ainslie wrote:

A longer workout is always more significant than a shorter. It is especially significant if the horse has been away from the races for a while. After a layoff of more than a month, works of three or four furlongs are not too promising for a horse scheduled to race against animals of its own class. But if the race is at six furlongs and the horse spun off six or seven furlongs in good time within the last week or ten days, and has breezed another three or four furlongs in the last 48 hours, one can be reasonably sure that it is ready to try today. Similarly, if today’s race is over a distance of ground, the laid off animal should show a workout or two of at least a mile, and in respectable time.


Hagiwara has gotta be doin’ something more with this horse other than the three (3) works. How can U Carrot Farm expect to win “The Test of the Champion”, traveling as far as he will, with only three (3) works? Just doesn’t add up. What was this horse doin’ in the two months previous to his first work? Gotta be somethin’ more . . .


Lookin forward to the Belmont Stakes!

:11:

handyman1968
06-05-2017, 12:10 AM
I am not worried about the race in between the UAE Derby and the Belmont. Most likely there was no suitable race available in that time frame. Japanese training method is a whole lot different than many other jurisdictions. They seem to train their horses harder in the morning than most and it's not like they haven't had any success raiding overseas G1s (Melbourne Cup 2006 anyone?)

handyman1968
06-05-2017, 12:12 AM
Here is a nice recent article on the South China Morning Post contrasting Japanese and HK training methods.

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/article/2096647/there-something-wrong-your-horse-when-superpower-horse-racing-cultures