Longshots for Saturday 5/13

[Ray2000]

Bot came back with a ton of them today
Pick your Poison...
Betting W/P/S

Buffalo R4.......#7 Enzo Seelster-6/1................Fisher, Ray Jr
Buffalo R11......#6 Its A Good Thing-6/1..........Cummings, Kevin

Flamboro R8......#2 Idontwanabefriends-9/1.....Mcclure, Bob
Flamboro R10.....#8 Lulus Boy-8/1...................Mcclure, Bob

Hoosier R2.......#3 Fabulous Five-30/1..............Shetler, Andy . . 30/1 :confused: Blame Intel CPU :coffee:

Meadows R8.......#7 Lord Of Winterfell-8/1.......Wilder, Mike
Meadows R13......#8 Hillbillyfairytale-15/1........Stillings, Richard

Mohawk R2........#3 Winter Sweet Frost-8/1......Mcnair, Douglas R
Mohawk R6........#6 Dudesalady-8/1.................Jamieson, Jody C

The BigM R3......#5 Victorydaze Wilwin-8/1.......Martin, Joe
The BigM R8......#1 Kotare Yael N-8/1...............Miller, Andy
The BigM R9......#9 Moonlight Ransom-15/1......Zeron, Scott
The BigM R10.....#9 Ise The By Boy-15/1..........Miller, David
The BigM R11.....#6 Tossies Flash-12/1............Merton, Thomas

Northfield R2....#6 Annakate-12/1.....................Thompson, Jason
Northfield R10...#6 Get Your Armor-6/1.............Schillaci, Sam

Pocono R1........#8 Whosurpapa-6/1..................Napolitano, Anthony
Pocono R6........#7 Can I Say-6/1......................Kakaley, Matt
Pocono R14.......#2 Have A Parodi-8/1..............Ginsburg, Vincent

Scioto R2........#5 Grantor Hanover-12/1..........Tharps, Randy
Scioto R10.......#8 Strong Playin King-6/1.........Noble, Dan
Scioto R12.......#4 Ricky Tidwell-8/1.................Holliday, Mickey

Vernon R5........#7 Fleetwood Hall-8/1..............Toland, Miriam

Yonkers R2.......#2 No Recess-6/1....................Brennan, George
Yonkers R6.......#6 Buen Camino-7/1................Sears, Brian


Good Luck All......GO PENS

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Bot came back with a ton of them today
Pick your Poison...
Betting W/P/S



The BigM R3......#5 Victorydaze Wilwin-8/1.......Martin, Joe
The BigM R8......#1 Kotare Yael N-8/1...............Miller, Andy
The BigM R9......#9 Moonlight Ransom-15/1......Zeron, Scott
The BigM R10.....#9 Ise The By Boy-15/1..........Miller, David
The BigM R11.....#6 Tossies Flash-12/1............Merton, Thomas


Good Luck All......GO PENS

I do believe your longies in races 3,8 and 9 haf LEE JIT mit chantzes.

fuhgeddabout your Rosecroft shippers in the 10th and 11th. Wedon't DO Rosecroft at the BigM.

Other longshots (based on the "BROWER" morning line) I would consider:

R2 #5 WYGANT PRINCESS 8-1
R3 #1 RING WARRIOR 15-1; SOME POWER 10-1
R4 #4 LIGHTNING RAIDER N 8-1
R5 #8 LINDYTHEFOURTEENTH 8-1
R6 #6 Do NOT try to beat LYONS SNYDER!
R7 #3 ALEXIE MATTOSIE 8-1

A couple of additional notes on the 7th race. Ignore the apparent poor performance of LEGION OF BOOM in his last. Callahan had trouble with him before the start, wound him up to catch the gate then went 26:1 to the quarter. Consider that a 5/16 move at a 26 clip. Brower's ML fave is our friend IAMMABRIGHTSIDE N (who Brower missed in the qualifier). He makes him 5-2 morning line, then picks him 4th in a 7-horse race. In other words, the ignorant bettors will overbet him not realizing how unimpressive his last win was. My best guess is that he IS the best, but if odds are too short, consider ALEX MATTOSIE or LEGION OF BOOM.

Despite Brower making ALEX MATTOSIE the second longest shot in the race, I expect him to be short odds. Hopefully, I'm wrong about those odds.

[Ray2000]

Tough night Jess, even LS broke..
I only got 3 Winners, wasn't enough to get into the black.
Track Race Finish Return (W/P/S)
BR 4
BR 11
FLMD 8
FLMD 10
HOP 2
MEA 8 Win $18.40
MEA 13 Scratch
MOH 2
MOH 6 Show $3.60
M 3
M 8 Win $26.00
M 9
M 10
M 11 Place $24.00
NFLD 2
NFLD 10
PCD 1
PCD 6 Win $21.60
PCD 14 Place $12.80
SCD 2
SCD 10 Scratch
SCD 12
VD 5
YR 2 Scratch
YR 6 Place $7.90

Bet $132.00 Return $114.30

[tyler522]

Ray, what is Win % &ROI, for Yonkers, using ML RANK 1-3 from posts 1-5 only? Thanks in advance.

[Ray2000]

Tyler
That's a messy query because there are so many ties for Morning Line values
The data below shows results for individual posts when the ML rank for that post is 1,2 or 3

Yonkers past 12 months
Races Win% ROI
Post1 1345 37.0% 0.845
Post2 1126 37.5% 0.863
Post3 1054 37.8% 0.877
Post4 1022 34.4% 0.743
Post5 926 37.5% 0.905

[tyler522]

Thank u, Ray at YR it appears most winners pay less than their ML, do u feel that is true? I read ur past work , I believe ur stats stated a higher % paid more than their ML, maybe that was at other tracks because at YR, they seem to bet down alot of winners, love to hear ur thoughts on this? Thanks again for all ur input.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Tough night Jess, even LS broke..
I only got 3 Winners, wasn't enough to get into the black.
Track Race Finish Return (W/P/S)
BR 4
BR 11
FLMD 8
FLMD 10
HOP 2
MEA 8 Win $18.40
MEA 13 Scratch
MOH 2
MOH 6 Show $3.60
M 3
M 8 Win $26.00
M 9
M 10
M 11 Place $24.00
NFLD 2
NFLD 10
PCD 1
PCD 6 Win $21.60
PCD 14 Place $12.80
SCD 2
SCD 10 Scratch
SCD 12
VD 5
YR 2 Scratch
YR 6 Place $7.90

Bet $132.00 Return $114.30


The worst beat of the night for me was that the 7th race was not a superfecta. I made the fave the best, but I loved the value of LEGION OF BOOM to grab minor spoils. I wrote out a super play where I would have hit the super solidly. I had forgotten that M1 does not have supers in the first leg of p4s. I ended up playing him for third in the tris, and got nailed at the wire.

My only decent hit was with Kotare Yael N at 5-1 and the $76 exacta.

[Ray2000]

Thank u, Ray at YR it appears most winners pay less than their ML, do u feel that is true? I read ur past work , I believe ur stats stated a higher % paid more than their ML, maybe that was at other tracks because at YR, they seem to bet down alot of winners, love to hear ur thoughts on this? Thanks again for all ur input.

I think you're referring to this thread

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=138000

but I've never compared mutuel win payoffs to ML values, I'm only interested in ML rank.

My 'thoughts' on this are simply:

1. If the crowd sets the final odds exactly correct so that when they make a horse at 4/5 and that corresponds to a 50% chance to win (because of take-out), it turns out that those horses do win 50% of the time. So if they're right on all horses in the race then THERE IS NO GOOD BET! The take-out kills you no matter which horse you bet.

2. There's alot of studies that show if the crowd does make a mistake, it's most likely in the odds range of 7/2 to 6/1.

3. Morning Line rank 1 (and to some extent 2 and 3), draws money from the non-sharks.... the casual bettor, the bowling parties, the inebriated.
The sharks know this but they tend to self-cancel themselves out, leaving a meager chance at a true overlay around the 5/1 odds range.

Good Luck

[tyler522]

Thank u again

[tyler522]

Can u elaborate on 2)...the 7/2-6-1 range?

[Ray2000]

Can u elaborate on 2)...the 7/2-6-1 range?

Yes, I wasn't very clear on that. I meant when the crowd goes wrong it's because they overbet longshots and heavy favorites. That produces the best chance of an overlay (underbet) in the 3/1 -6/1 range.

There's plenty of books covering this such as those by

Ziemba, CX Wong, and I think Burton Fabricand's book "Horse Sense" has a table like this which I just made for 2015-2016

Odds range StartersWin% ROI
<0.9 10852 58% 0.87
>0.89 <1.6 12932 41% 0.89
>1.59 <2.2 11331 29% 0.83
>2.19 <2.9 11703 25% 0.87
>2.89 <3.75 13115 20% 0.84
>3.74 <4.7 11759 16% 0.84
>4.69 <5.8 12294 13% 0.82
>5.79 <7 11159 11% 0.83
>6.99 <8.5 12428 9% 0.78
>8.49 <10.2 11931 8% 0.79
>10.19 <12.4 12260 6% 0.76
>12.39 <15 12076 5% 0.77
>14.99 <18.2 11919 4% 0.75
>18.19 <22.4 12118 3% 0.71
>22.39 <27.75 12063 3% 0.66
>27.74 <34.8 12026 2% 0.71
>34.79 <44.1 11989 2% 0.61
>44.09 <57.4 12026 1% 0.62
>57.39 <80.3 12012 1% 0.43
>80.29 9652 0% 0.49


I guess these numbers are contradicting what I just wrote because the odds-on favorites seem to higher than I expected. But numbers don't lie. :p

I picked these odds ranges to get an equal number of starters in each group. Narrowing the ranges usually produces a better curve on ROI, maxing at 4/1

[tyler522]

Thanks again.